Sand87
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Posts posted by Sand87
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair That is very true. Would you say the statements remain the same if you are deriving odds for a sub market from another market? As in my example above.
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair I notice I've made an error in the commission effect on the odds but it doesn't really affect the question
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Nobody got any thoughts on my post?
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair p.s that is a real example. If you want to test it yourself go to any first half goal market with a little bit of indecision i.e not close to 100%. You'll see what I mean. And that's just one market.
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Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair
You know, there's a bot that was introduced to many of the football side markets about 3 months ago that operates like this. At first I thought it was offering odds just below or above value as some sort of commission reduction. Then I thought it was arbs but discounted that due to the consistency and volume it matches. Finally I figured out but before I let on how it works I'll see if anyone can take a guess with an example: Lets say Half Time Score market has £30,000 matched in it. First Half Goals has £500. It's fair to say that the HT price for 0-0,1-0,0-1 should be the price for Under 1.5 Goals First Half. 0-0 = 2.72 1-0 = 4.9 0-1 = 6.6 So Under 1.5 HT should be the sum of those odds which is 1.383 You need to factor in commission so lets say you get matched @ 1.40 The bot takes your back. A few minutes later it lays an amount @ either 1.40 or higher. Tell me how that works ;)Literally the only way you're not going to lose your shirt in BF is by getting people to take bad odds from you and then you getting better odds from someone else. -
My main question is a little hypothetical. Most of us can look at a market and realise when the odds are way out of line without having to know what fair odds would be. For example, in the unlikely event you open Man Utd v Chelsea Correct Score market before kick off and see Man Utd 1-0 @ 500 you don't need to know the correct odds to know this is a value back. And obviously you would stake as much as you can because you know the market will eventually correct itself. But lets say the difference isn't so large that you are confident the market will correct i.e there is risk attached to the bet and so you need to protect your bank. How would you stake if you didn't know the true odds? Betting 0.5% of your bank on odds between, say, 1.50 and 2.00 is a fair deal. But would you then stake the same % on odds of 110? Of course not because you must expect many more losses to your wins and you may well go bust despite getting value. Once youv digested that :D , I'd like to ask something else: For a couple of years I used a set % of my bank for bets. I didn't vary the % depending on the odds because the odds were always within a very tight range but I recently decided that I want to move to a fractional kelly staking plan. I'm thinking 1/4 kelly to start with. I can do this because I can calculate with a fair deal of accuracy what the value on each bet is. But without using a bot I am having a headache trying to figure out how to implement this when odds (and therefore kelly stake) can change so often and I'm betting in many markets. How can I manually calculate the kelly stake each time something changes?
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Re: Analyse this comment and add your conclusion: The guy is called Beat The Overround. He wrote up a very detailed explanation with formula around a year or so ago on the Betfair forums but I can't find it anymore and can no longer post there.
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Re: Analyse this comment and add your conclusion: I think you missed the point. He seems to be saying that you can judge when to enter a market by watching the overround. The larger the overround the more the market is going to squash together. But can you use it to decide which will come in and which will drift... Do you think...?
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"If you study the over round thoroughly(dare I say obsessively),in relation to different class of races etc. you will realise more about entry points than any one other single factor. This is the closest you will ever get to discovering the Golden Goose. Esp on this forum. If you do, you will be way ahead of the crowd because people are generally too lazy to put the effort in to see why this so spectacularly significant." So why is this so spectacularly significant?
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I like the idea of comparing like for like but it isn't that easy because they work off each other. For example we all know Hazard is a quality player. But for the role he plays @ Chelsea he relies on quality from the back four, if he doesn't get it he does not have the permission to create it himself and so becoms secondary. IMO this is Chelseas problem all over the field. I doubt this will be a popular observation but having watched Cech for years I think he's losing it. Goalkeepers mature far later than outfield players but I believe he is slowing down, his enthusiasm is weaning and the past season and a bit he seems to be making more mistakes. He does not convince me anymore but does a superb quality keeper who loses a little suddenly come to the level of a very good keeper? I don't believe so, so he is still the better man. Can't have long left in the top flight though, IMO.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 That last sentence, it's a very valid point but it sounded a bit flippant - I do not underestimate team news, it's a major factor in pre match prices but it is also one of the most over exaggerated factors.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 there are gambles in almost any match. How often do you see any match, be it Arsenal v Chelsea or Yeovil v Bury kick off at the same odds they opened at? You just need to understand why they happen and when they happen and people find it easy to think the reasons are random, impossible to predcit and just one of those things. Or the fail safe of... ' it was team news'.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012
The last two seasons 85% of my bets were made on major league matches, those being EPL, Spanish, German and to a lesser extent Dutch and for those countries almost all bets were in the top tier so I believe that incorrect prices can be found. These matches, especially on Betfair but also at bookies, markets will move with the money and the money relates to the punters sentiment so there are many points where incorrect prices can be found. Some people refer to it as over reactions, those peaks and troughs. I think of it as market pyschology - it's a very real thing, not just in sport but in any market where money is exchanged. I seek out matches like this because of the money involved and the strong opinions, rather than being put off by it.Value is a matter of opinion. If you are looking for incorrect prices I suggest you don't try the most high profile game in the world this weekend, bookies are unlikely to be caught with their pants down in such a game are they? ;) -
Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 To be a true comparison the teams would have to be identical with the exception of Drogba. However, it is a very useful statistic. They don't mesh completely but the difference (squad rotation with both teams) would be negligible, a small percentage of a 1 goal expectation so I think it is a more than fair stat to raise and if correct I think bubblepower should get a little praise for raising it.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 This is 2012, surely we all know by now that the only way to win at betting is not to bet on what you think will happen but to bet when you think the price is value. Other than myself, has anybody else considered this in this thread? I don't mean to sound egotistical but it is a little weird. I think the match will be over 2.5. I think Arsenal will win 3-1. I think there could be a goal in the first 10 minutes. I think Walcott will score more than one. I think I think I think...we all think. Try and convert it into numbers or you will lose to commission. It is true. So...who can say where they are spotting some incorrect prices? Opinions can be found in the pub.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 He seems pretty confident he will play a part in the match. It doesn't matter if it's only 20 minutes I still want to see how he plays, he wants to be a consistent first 11 striker. Arsene has said he needs to be patient for this but that he was impressed with his game against Coventry which may suggest he is not far from making the switch and he isn't going to do that without Walcott playing in that role or playing more often. IMO?
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Torres would struggle big time to score once against Arsenal of old. Getting a hat-trick against their new improved and, for once, capable defence is as ludicrous as his £50mill fee :D The player to watch will be Walcott.
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Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 The value here is in backing Arsenal. Pinnacles were 2.290 earlier but now the best price is Betfair. Couple of bookies going 2.25 but they won't let you match anything above a few bangers. I came up with a price for Arsenal of 2.12 but that was before I learned about Walcotts desire to play solely as striker and after watching him score 2 last night and, IMO, play a very good game I have to reduce that so anything over 2.08 is a good back. It's difficult to convert into a rating what effect a position move would have on a team. Add to the mix Arsenal got a well deserved draw at City and they played some very talented football and are now more than capable of fighting for at least 3rd place (I've heard plenty of talk of 1st but I don't think so) I think the morale for the match will be incredible and it's a home game for them. Chelsea just do not inspire me, not at home and certainly not away. I've had some arguments with Chelsea fans over Ivanovic. I think so far this season he has been incredibly careless, it's like his focus is not there. Not a good thing for someone as important as him. If Terry and Lampard start I'm laying them big time - I don't care what the fans say, it is my opinion that these two are the most negative players in the squad and watching Chelsea play without them can be like watching a different team. Sure, they're experienced and keep a level head but do they play positive football? Pfff. Value is on: Arsenal @ 2.24 EDIT:Just heard about Terry 4 match ban :D
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Why are Malmo 1.74 to beat Orebro? If you don't know the teams then have a look at the stats and the league table. There is no significant team news yet. IMO Malmo have to be backed at 1.74? even if you don#t want to bet I recomment getting a stream for the game, fromsport sometimes have streams for this league. I think it's going to be a crazy match so watch it and see and meanwhile I'll back Malmo who surely must be 1.50
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Swansea v Chelsea 31/01/12 SWANSEA at 4.90 I am backing Swansea at anything above 4.10. I reckon there is a good chance Chelsea will go off well past evens. John Terry has been confirmed as missing the match although some may say this is a good thing. Having watched Swansea this season I think they have achieved some very admirable results and have been very close against the bigger teams. I love their style of play, very confident, I sometimes think that Brendan Rodgers has sat his players down and said 'listen boys, I don't care what you do on the pitch, how you do it or when you do it, all I want you to do is play football. Cya'. And that is exactly what his players do. The team remind me of a bunch of 19 year olds, no hang ups, total confidence and never stopping until the end. I guess this is the best way to approach the EPL for a team just joining. I can't help but back them at that price but other than that I am sure it will be a great match, Swansea at home are great fun.
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Re: True Odds Calculator Ok well I can't paste it but it's a load of jumbled up text ??
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Re: True Odds Calculator http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/package/2006/content-types">
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Re: True Odds Calculator Damn, when I try to open it it just opens an IE window with all this: http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/package/2006/content-types">
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Re: Half time/ Full time odds Still can't get C :lol Any luck?
Why punters lose heavily on Betfair
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair You can quite easily be in profit by taking poor value bets And equally you can go broke taking good value bets. Over the short term, or over a small sample, both are likely. But over a large enough sample that relates to the average odds your betting to you can use formula to calculate your confidence that you are getting value i.e that it isn't down to luck If you backed a 1.01 shot at 1000 you got exceptional value. It may lose though :( This is why I like to remember Warren Buffets quote about not investing if you aren't prepared to see the investment drop by 50% at some point. I.E don't over stake. Excluding laying an impossible outcome, how many people would overstake and rely on the assumption the market would correct and they could dump some of that stake?