Sand87
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Posts posted by Sand87
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Re: Zlatan's way of making money
Use a fraction then. 1/4 would be good.Pretty much, but kelly staking uses a much higher % of bank per bet. I have great confidence that I've an edge on the market with regards soccer. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
It really isn't a dark art. It's very basic when you get down to it. Some of the largest market makers are very candid about how they make their money because their advantage isn't the information they use it is the funds they have and the commission, or lack of, that they pay and the tools they have to analyse their data. Their best asset is the data they have and the software they developed to anaylse it. Their second best asset is the software they use that tells them how that data relates to odds and how the odds relate to each other (from one market to another). All the data is available to anybody that wants it, they have no unfair advantage and nothing they do is technically difficult. And their turnover is massive, their margins tiny.Now, i see in other forums that there are some very experienced longtimers that make a lot of money, and i mean a lot. Unfortunately, these people are not open to share their tricks and tactics, and when they do so, it means that they are in the next step so they dont care if someone else makes some money also. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Here's another thing you seem to dismiss. If you have a yield of 10% but can't get matched at the priced you want then you need to start taking lower prices in order to get your turnover. That will lower your yield. (yes, i your point perfectly) SO WHAT. I would have no problem with that if it means i can achieve a high turnover. I'd be very happy dropping to 1% yield if that means i can get 20 times as much cash on. Think about it, examine the relationsships, 10% low turnover or 1% high turnover, you know which one generates most profit. (at the same level of risk)" Finally. This is exactly the point I have been making all along! So what?? You try actually doing that in a live market, see what types of brick walls you come up against. "I would have no problem with that IF it means i can achieve a high turnover." "I'd be very happy dropping to 1% yield IF that means i can get 20 times as much cash on"
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football And yes, I most certainly understand risk, I don't think it would be possible to stake correctly and remain in profit without understanding and it would almost certainly not be possible to automate without a solid understanding.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
You assume you need huge stakes which is unrealistic because in reality you'll never do that as the risk is too high, THAT's what you need to get. Yes, to make substantial amounts of profit in a short period of time like a month you need high turnover. But that can be done with small to medium stakes, at least stakes that you can get matched at the price you want given a bit of effort, as long as you can manage asufficient number of bets. [/quote I am talking about the figures in your Q1/2/3/4 analysis or perhaps your monthly if you make enough bets. I'm not assuming you need huge stakes at all, but don't forget I am trying to remain practical. You can make £3000 a month using stakes small enough that nobody else cares about? Which these days are no more than a couple of quid. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
Therefore if they're making £250' date='000 at maximum 2% margin, their turnover is 50 x £250k = £12.5 million :loon[/quote'] Easily. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
The guy asked for practical steps to make £3000 a month trading. To do this you need to turnover a huge volume. Everything I've said in this thread has been with that in mind. If you turnover a huge volume with the hope of making a profit then your margin is slim - in real life. On paper there are of course theoretical ways that it may not be but when the money is down on an exchange like Betfair it becomes a fact. I talked about strike rate on the first page.And you seem to be failing at grasping this relationship, at least you're not putting things in a realistic context. -
Re: Hornet's Hunting For Value You're staking a huge % of your bank with each bet, so much so that only 3 or 4 losses in a row will wipe you out. You're doing really well so far.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
I enjoy reading anecdotes like that :) It must have been a nice feeling. If you want to experience it again, try and place a large telephone bet with Ladbrokes on something slightly obscure. After they've refused you, watch them cut their price. I know somebody who used to back said obscure team and then phone round all the bookies with unrealisticly large bets. Once the books cut their prices the market falls and he got out. Don't think he managed that more than a handful of times but it was fun to watch. That was a couple of years ago now, doubt it would work anymore.As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually konw for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Oh my days. It's a hypothetical example, the numbers are irrelevant I'm trying to point out the relationship between them.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Right, lets try something else. And Machine, try, like me, to remain civil. Getting angry and swearing is a little indicative. I'll paste this from one of my previous posts. Forget everything that has been said before, do you agree that this is likely: Year Turnover POT 1 £100,000 6% 2 £400,000 5% 3 £1.2m 1% 4 £8m 0.5% 5 £16m 0.1%
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football "If you did (which I very much doubt ) have 60k to put on a (say) football match you would take what you could on the market with your edge then lay off the rest on the other 2 markets because they have no edge so you would be getting your 'value' that way." Correct. But your margin will be slim. Argue against that. And then write a book because you'll be a very rich man.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Look, what I am telling you is not something that can be argued about. It is a fact. A fact of betting exchanges, of financial markets, of consumer markets. You either don't understand me or you don't understand markets. I have tried my best to explain it to you.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football You're being deliberately facetious. I notice you didn't latch on to the 700,000? You know they are examples. And the point isn't that I can't get 70k bets on. It's that if I do, I have to accept a very low margin. Or do you bet on an exchange where there is no competition and an endless stream of very wealthy mugs prepared to accept shockingly poor value bets for huge sums?
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I listed some practical steps on the first page before we got bogged down.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I'm talking about Betfair because the original poster asks about the reality of making a living betting/trading. You will easily get £5 matched at 50.00 about a 36.00 shot. You will not get £1000 matched at 50.00 about a 36.00 shot. It's a fact of life, not just betting markets. If you think otherwise then you should speak to some of the large multi nationals, some of the large investors. Because they all seem to think that the larger you become the smaller your margins, if you know otherwise you've got a few trillion coming your way. A good way to illustrate the point would be to analyse the accounts of some successfull traders. You will find that it may look like this: Year Turnover POT 1 £100,000 6% 2 £400,000 5% 3 £1.2m 1% 4 £8m 0.5% 5 £16m 0.1%
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football It was an example to illustrate a point. And your reply is hardly earth shattering. You asked me to give you an example and I did. Like I said, all theoretical knowledge, no working knowledge. If you reckon you can get the same volume matched at 2.01 about a 2.00 that you can a 2.18 about a 2.00 then you've never attempted it more than a few times.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Ok, nice and simple. You make the price 2.00. You can realistically expect to get £2 matched at 2.18 some of the time. You make the price 2.00 You can not realistically expect to get £2000 matched at 2.18 You can realistically expect to get £2000 matched at 2.02 You can realistically expect to get £10000 matched at 2.01
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football It has very little to do with mathematics now and almost everything to do with how a market works. Trust me, if I could command the same return no matter how much I put in and I got matched I would be a millionaire. Actually, I'd be a billionaire. Like I said...actually try it - you'll see. Try putting £60,000 in a market where only £1000 is normally matched. See what happens. Try putting £700,000 in a market where only £70,000 is normally matched. See what happens. Those two ludicrous examples can then be scaled as far down as you like until you have something realistic. You bet on both sides of the spread, obviously. If you don't, you give away value and nobody does that intentionally. Of course, all this is nonsense if you think that more people are prepared to take poor value for larger stakes. But that isn't even worth talking about, it doesn't happen.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Alright man, maybe you're right. As I say to anyone who is up for this, you will also benefit from any bookie bonuses you haven't already claimed, right up to their maximum spin up. Send me a PM.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Really? Well send me a PM. Myself and a few people who spend a lot of time and money trying to get on at top price will pay you good money to let us use your account. (and I bet it gets shut in 2 days)
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Oh dear, pedantics again. Ok - the more volume you get matched... Better?
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football And please, stop saying there's something wrong with ROI, or this or that. Tell me there;s something wrong with the fundamentals of what I am saying - the main points I am making - and then we will have an interesting conversation.
Kelly for trading/backing multiple selections
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Kelly for trading/backing multiple selections Well my understanding of kelly is that strictly speaking it's applicable to situations with only two outcomes that are known beforehand: Win A, Lose B. Therefore kelly needs adapted for trading because rather than Win A, Lose B there is a range of possible outcomes. If you back at 8 on 5% commission your real odds are 7.65 which is what goes in to your kelly formula. If you are backing and laying or betting on multiple selections you will not be hit quite so hard by commission.