Sand87
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Posts posted by Sand87
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Re: Scottish Football > 30th April - 5th May Celtic confirmed to be resting key players for their match away to Ross County. Forster, Emilio Izaguirre, Charlie Mulgrew, Gary Hooper and Georgios Samaras will be rested and Scott Brown,Adam Matthews and James Forest are injured. Ross County, at the time of posting, could potentially be playing for 3rd place and a European spot. Celtic not won at County this season They've won the league, can;t see travelling fans or players being too arsed about this. Think a lay of Celtic @ 1.89 is great value
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Re: Massive gamble on Staines, opposition fielding outfield player in goals!! 1.50.
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Re: Massive gamble on Staines, opposition fielding outfield player in goals!! staines now 1.60
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Staines still available at over evens at some books, just shy of evens on Betfair. Arbers holding up the price just now but expect a serious gamble in the next few hours. Official press release from Farnborough confirms they will be forced to play an outfield player in goals for this match and possibly for the rest of the season. Betfair market for the game: http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.108755915&origin=MRL
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January Exactly what I said on Twitter Elk - anything over evens is a back. Pinns have been cutting their prices which is usually a sign of where the money will go on match day. They opened at 2.30, went 2.26 yesterday and today slashed their prices to 2.14. We all know their prices come from a few sharks so I like to take note.
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January For Newcastle, I hope he starts. But combining the uncertainty that he wants to be at the club and the uncertainty over his fitness I'm unsure. I'm going to feel so sorry for some of their players if Newcastle lose tomorrow. Some of their players are better than that. Demba Ba getting sold for less than 8 million was an absolute robbery and if Newcastle had been a few places higher in the league it would never have happened. If he'd stayed to the end of the season and continued scoring I don't see why he wouldn't have gone for 15m in the transfer window. Like I said, such a shame for everyone involved with Newcastle but talking business it's all the more reason to back Norwich, they will take advantage of this - to them, it's as easy a 3 points as you're going to get in this league.
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January I also just cannot overlook the way they played against Chelsea and Man City. For a team to play with such confidence against those guys it shows something quite a lot deeper than a little luck - IMO it shows a real, deep down desire and determination to win. How easy must it be for a side like Norwich to get totally crushed by Man City? They didn't, they stood up to them and fought which is always a credit to the manager but more importantly tells you a great deal about the players and the general mood in the dressing room. It's just unfortunate that everytime I think of Norwich I think of farking Delia Smith cracking a white egg into a bowl and telling me to 'whip it'. Oooooh...Delia, ya dirty cow ya. (come on, you would...wouldn;t you?? And not just because she'd do a great breakfast)
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January Colloccini handed in his transfer request today. Jase82, was from some obscure betting preview site that stated that he was "unlikely to start because he is only three quarters fit and unhappy". I interpretted the 'unhappy' as being not totally happy about his fitness. Obviously it was due to him being unhappy about being at the club. Can seriously see Newcastle going down again this season. Would be so gutting for the fans but lets be honest, they have not shown an ounce of determination so far this season and for a team that has just been down 'there' that is totally unforgivable they should be coming out fighting for their life every single match. To not have won an away game since last season is exactly the sort of form you would expect from a relegation side and actually most relegated teams have a better record than that. Hopefully for the fans Cabaye will start this weekend but lets be honest one player will not help a team like that. Still can't look past Norwich for an easy 3 points unfortunately
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Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January
I believe Coloccini is only 75% fit and is not certain to start.Newcastle + 0.25 @ 1.96 - bet365. They should be getting a few players back following injury, with Guttierez, Cabaye, Cisse and Collocini. -
Re: Norwich City v Newcastle United > Sat 12th January Newcastle are in terrible form and they have terribly important, key players missing. This should not be underestimated. They also have not won an away game since last season. They have had absolutely no support in the market in the last few months and I see no reason for that to change so for that reason alone Norwich should be backed for a pre-kick off trade. Norwich have lost the last 4 but lets not forget 2 of those matches were against Chelsea and Man City and they were unlucky not to walk away with something in both matches. They do have injuries themselves but as they are playing at home against a horrible, weak side I feel Norwich are good for this. Norwich @ 2.24
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Re: Kelly for trading/backing multiple selections Well my understanding of kelly is that strictly speaking it's applicable to situations with only two outcomes that are known beforehand: Win A, Lose B. Therefore kelly needs adapted for trading because rather than Win A, Lose B there is a range of possible outcomes. If you back at 8 on 5% commission your real odds are 7.65 which is what goes in to your kelly formula. If you are backing and laying or betting on multiple selections you will not be hit quite so hard by commission.
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Modifications? Go...!
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Re: Zlatan's way of making money
Use a fraction then. 1/4 would be good.Pretty much, but kelly staking uses a much higher % of bank per bet. I have great confidence that I've an edge on the market with regards soccer. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
It really isn't a dark art. It's very basic when you get down to it. Some of the largest market makers are very candid about how they make their money because their advantage isn't the information they use it is the funds they have and the commission, or lack of, that they pay and the tools they have to analyse their data. Their best asset is the data they have and the software they developed to anaylse it. Their second best asset is the software they use that tells them how that data relates to odds and how the odds relate to each other (from one market to another). All the data is available to anybody that wants it, they have no unfair advantage and nothing they do is technically difficult. And their turnover is massive, their margins tiny.Now, i see in other forums that there are some very experienced longtimers that make a lot of money, and i mean a lot. Unfortunately, these people are not open to share their tricks and tactics, and when they do so, it means that they are in the next step so they dont care if someone else makes some money also. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Here's another thing you seem to dismiss. If you have a yield of 10% but can't get matched at the priced you want then you need to start taking lower prices in order to get your turnover. That will lower your yield. (yes, i your point perfectly) SO WHAT. I would have no problem with that if it means i can achieve a high turnover. I'd be very happy dropping to 1% yield if that means i can get 20 times as much cash on. Think about it, examine the relationsships, 10% low turnover or 1% high turnover, you know which one generates most profit. (at the same level of risk)" Finally. This is exactly the point I have been making all along! So what?? You try actually doing that in a live market, see what types of brick walls you come up against. "I would have no problem with that IF it means i can achieve a high turnover." "I'd be very happy dropping to 1% yield IF that means i can get 20 times as much cash on"
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football And yes, I most certainly understand risk, I don't think it would be possible to stake correctly and remain in profit without understanding and it would almost certainly not be possible to automate without a solid understanding.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
You assume you need huge stakes which is unrealistic because in reality you'll never do that as the risk is too high, THAT's what you need to get. Yes, to make substantial amounts of profit in a short period of time like a month you need high turnover. But that can be done with small to medium stakes, at least stakes that you can get matched at the price you want given a bit of effort, as long as you can manage asufficient number of bets. [/quote I am talking about the figures in your Q1/2/3/4 analysis or perhaps your monthly if you make enough bets. I'm not assuming you need huge stakes at all, but don't forget I am trying to remain practical. You can make £3000 a month using stakes small enough that nobody else cares about? Which these days are no more than a couple of quid. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
Therefore if they're making £250' date='000 at maximum 2% margin, their turnover is 50 x £250k = £12.5 million :loon[/quote'] Easily. -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
The guy asked for practical steps to make £3000 a month trading. To do this you need to turnover a huge volume. Everything I've said in this thread has been with that in mind. If you turnover a huge volume with the hope of making a profit then your margin is slim - in real life. On paper there are of course theoretical ways that it may not be but when the money is down on an exchange like Betfair it becomes a fact. I talked about strike rate on the first page.And you seem to be failing at grasping this relationship, at least you're not putting things in a realistic context. -
Re: Hornet's Hunting For Value You're staking a huge % of your bank with each bet, so much so that only 3 or 4 losses in a row will wipe you out. You're doing really well so far.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football
I enjoy reading anecdotes like that :) It must have been a nice feeling. If you want to experience it again, try and place a large telephone bet with Ladbrokes on something slightly obscure. After they've refused you, watch them cut their price. I know somebody who used to back said obscure team and then phone round all the bookies with unrealisticly large bets. Once the books cut their prices the market falls and he got out. Don't think he managed that more than a handful of times but it was fun to watch. That was a couple of years ago now, doubt it would work anymore.As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually konw for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol -
Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Oh my days. It's a hypothetical example, the numbers are irrelevant I'm trying to point out the relationship between them.
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Right, lets try something else. And Machine, try, like me, to remain civil. Getting angry and swearing is a little indicative. I'll paste this from one of my previous posts. Forget everything that has been said before, do you agree that this is likely: Year Turnover POT 1 £100,000 6% 2 £400,000 5% 3 £1.2m 1% 4 £8m 0.5% 5 £16m 0.1%
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Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football "If you did (which I very much doubt ) have 60k to put on a (say) football match you would take what you could on the market with your edge then lay off the rest on the other 2 markets because they have no edge so you would be getting your 'value' that way." Correct. But your margin will be slim. Argue against that. And then write a book because you'll be a very rich man.
Sky Bet Championship > November 22nd & 23rd
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: Sky Bet Championship > November 22nd & 23rd Das Phantom's post is spot on. Burnley should be much shorter than 3.30 Forest back line ruined, having to rely on youngsters and despite trying desperately to loan players to cover...those loans were all rejected. Also missing their joint top goal scorer. You just can not afford to field Defenders that are essentially amateur. It never works, they do not have the confidene to make the decisions that matter and the restrain to not make the decisions they do. Think there's great value in backing Burnley who seem to have a pretty much full strength squad to chose from. So my pick: Burnley to win at an average of 3.37