[Sunderland v Queens Park Rangers > Tuesday Nov 27th]

Re: Sunderland v Queens Park Rangers > Tuesday Nov 27th Anyone betting QPR here is a braver man than me, their away form is just horrific. 0 wins in their last 20 away games (85% losses, 15% draws) 0 clean sheets in their last 20 away games. Their last away win was just over a year ago in Nov 2011 in a hard fought 3-2 vs Stoke. QPR have scored 1 goal or less in 16 of their last 20 away games. QPR have faced Sunderland 6 times since 2004/05 season. Sunderland won 5, with 1 draw. In all 6 of those games, both teams scored and the score went over 2.5. You have to go back to 1990/91 for the last time QPR beat Sunderland. I'm pretty torn on this game. Given their form and the head to heads I think QPR is a little short right now. They're priced on Betfair to be winning this around 29% of the time, which just doesn't sit right with me. I'm tempted to lay them as I'd be surprised if QPR got more than a point out of this. That said, I think the clearest value for me is over 2.5 @ 2.32 with Betfair. Sunderland's defense is a bit vulnerable at the minute, conceding 6 in the last 3 games to mid-table sides. But they also scored 6 in those 3 games, and created plenty of chances against West Ham (10 shots on target). So with a combination of recent performance, head to heads and both teams foaming at the mouth at the possibility of 3 points here, I can see enough chances converted to cover the over 2.5.

[Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Tough game to call, but given both teams most recent performances I fancy Italy to at least take this to extra time, and could even see them nicking it in 90 minutes. But I don't feel like risking much on this one as IMO this is wildly unpredictable, so I'm just having a couple of small stake interest bets on Balotelli as his positioning to make himself dangerous on the break vs Germany was superb. Wincast- Balotelli/Italy @ 11.5, 1 point Balotelli/Draw @ 34, 0.5 points

[Germany v Italy > June 28]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 How many times in this tournament are we going to hear that the value is on the underdogs, right before they get dominated? I'd be very careful looking at the past head to heads between these teams, as I am with any stats that are more than 2 years old. Their most recent encounter was a 1-1 in Feb 2011. The head to heads that have been mentioned are going back to 2006 and before. So let's look at how the team lineups compare since Germany's most recent loss to Italy on 04 Jul 2006 (2-0) - Italy players that played in that game that also played their most recent game - - Buffon - Pirlo Germany players that played in that game that also played their most recent game - - Lahm - Shweinsteiger - Klose So assuming the starting lineups stay the same, out of the 22 men that will be on the pitch on Thursday, only 5 of them were involved in the last game that Italy beat Germany. Even if they don't stay the same, the only likely addition to the above list will be Podolski. Plus both teams have different managers than they did in 2006. In my opinion historical head to heads are essentially meaningless unless the majority of the players on the pitch stay the same, which clearly isn't the case here. Plus Germany now have a stronger side than in 2006 IMO, with the additions of Ozil, Gomez and one of the best keepers in the world right now in Neuer. Italy had 20 shots on target against England and still couldn't score. Germany have a more experienced and arguably more talented keeper than England and Italy will certainly have less possession and shots against Germany. The only way I see Italy winning this is by holding Germany to a draw in 90 minutes and sneaking it in extra time or more likely on penalties. What I think is more likely is that Germany will dominate possession, go 1-0 up and screw up the Italian's defensive gameplan. Italy's response will then decide the game, but I think they'll be stuck between a rock and hard place - if they go on the attack they'll be more likely to concede another and end their game, if they keep sitting back hoping to catch them on the counter they risk a barrage of German shots and put more pressure on themselves on the occasions that they do get the chance to counterattack. I expect Italy to try and slow the game down and hold the 0-0 for as long as possible, so I'll be taking 0-0 @ 8.6 with betfair with the intention of laying it in the first half. I'll also be backing Germany 2-0 @ 9.2 as insurance against an early Germany goal, I expect this price to come in for a while as germany has attempt after attempt at breaking Italy down. I'll lay most of this off around 30 mins into the game if it remains goalless, and of course if Germany score before then the price will drop considerably. Of course if Italy score before I lay the 0-0 it'll be a full liability loss, but they haven't scored in the first 30 mins yet in this tournament and I don't expect them to against Germany. As long as Italy don't score too early I should be able to green up nicely by half time :)

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27

I disagree about your comment against the Czech Republic. In no stage of that match did the Czech's ever look like taking the lead' date=' Portugal battered them for 90 minutes, and should have won 3 or 4-0, Ronnie had the post twice.[/quote'] Fair enough, reading it back I don't entirely agree with it either :lol There was a typo in there, I meant there were times in the 1st half where Czech looked like they could take the lead, when they had a series of corners. I didn't mean to make it sound like the Czechs were the better team because they weren't at all, they were dominated, but I was backing Portugal and there were moments where I was worried, probably peaking when it was still 0-0 at 78 minutes lol. I agree Portugal should've won by more goals too (even having one disallowed), but they didn't, and they won't be able to dominate against Spain, so they'll need to convert their chances a lot better to have a chance in my opinion, because I don't think their defense is going to hold all that long.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27 I can't see Portugal winning this in 90 minutes. My initial reaction on the match odds is to either take Spain @ evens or lay Portugal. Spain have not conceded a goal in their last eight knockout matches. They've conceded 1 goal and scored 8 in their last 4 games. Portugal have conceded 4 goals and scored 6 in their last 4 games. Portugal were poor against Czech Republic, there were times in the 2nd half where it looked like Czech were going to take the lead. There were times in the 2nd half where Ronaldo seemed despondent and frustrated by the lack of quality of his teammates and his body language looked very negative with shoulders slumped. Meanwhile Spain are business as usual, dominating possession in every game, creating lots of chances and pressuring their opponents at every opportunity. Even without Villa I'm confident they're capable of scoring against any team in this tournament. And importantly, the questions raised over their defense seem to have been quelled. They defended well against France, and although it wasn't a world beating performance they managed to grind out a good 2-0 win. Overall I don't think Portugal's defense is going to come close to handling Spain's onslaught. The best team they've played so far is Germany, who they lost to and failed to score (1-0). They conceded 2 to Denmark in their group match. They were especially defensively poor in the qualifiers, where they conceded 4 goals to Iceland over 2 games, conceded 4 goals to Cyprus over 2 games and lost a game to both Denmark and Norway. Add to that the fact that they barely scraped a 1-0 win against the Czechs in their last game with a late goal, I think there's value in the lay. But because I think Portugal will likely need to score 2 just to have a chance at taking this to extra time, I'd rather plump for the straight Spain win. So I'll be on Spain @ 2 (betfair) for 10 points (max stake). I'll also be trading the correct score market on betfair before the game and in-play (and I may also lay off some of the Spain bet or back the draw depending on price movements and in game action). I don't see much talk of trading on here but if anybody's interested I'll share those picks too

[England v Italy > June 24]

Re: England v Italy > June 24

well done on the 0-0- boooyz ;) 4-2 on pens was a good one too! Its got to be spain - germany final now - will be looking at germany -1 unless the odds on a straight win are good enough. also Joe Hart take away the penalties; in 90mins he was utter poo. If any shots were on target he would have no chance. Deutchland outright for me ;) :cigar

Are you sure you were watching the same match as the rest of us? Italy had 20 shots on target, and 0 goals...

[Spain v France > June 23]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

[My Unders System]

Re: My Unders System Just found this, interesting stuff, if you're gonna keep this going I'll definately be following, and will probably get in on some of the action for small stakes myself glgl :hope