[NBA: 3rd Jan]

Re: NBA: 3rd Jan TWolves @ Nuggets TWolves Under 96.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Bet was looking good in the 3rd with the line down to 88.5, then Denver forgot that defending is a thing and allowed the timberwolves (a team averaging 20.0 in 4Q away) to pull back in the 3rd and put up 32 in the 4th. Good hustle from the TWolves though. Today: 0-1 -2 units 10W-13L-1P -2.63 units

[NBA: 3rd Jan]

Re: NBA: 3rd Jan Lines have moved against me here, should've taken them earlier. No bet for me on those 2 leans now. Only bet right now with paddypower: TWolves @ Nuggets TWolves Under 96.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Minnesota average 93.8 away, 95.2 overall Denver allow 94.9 at home Minnesota have only scored more than 196 four times in last 15 away matches Minnesota are 5-10 away, of those losses they scored over 196 ZERO times Denver have allowed over 96.5 in only 5/11 home games. Of the 5 teams that went over @Denver, 3 of them were Miami Heat, SA Spurs and LA Lakers, who are all top 5 scoring teams. Very happy with this line as I would've had it firmly at O/U 94.5, and I'd probably still be taking the unders.

[NBA: 3rd Jan]

Early leans: Spurs @ Knicks - Over 206.5 TWolves @ Nuggets - Potential for a Nuggets blowout here so I'm leaning towards the -7 (available with Paddy). The line is moving out on this with many books now at -7.5 and I can see it at -8 by match time. Waiting for more info on rumours of Spurs resting players before betting.

[NBA: 2nd Jan]

Re: NBA: 2nd Jan SA Spurs @ MIL Bucks Spurs -5.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units :D Under 203.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Memphis Grizzlies @ BOS Celtics Grizzles -3.5 @ 2.00 - 1 unit :D MIN Timberwolves @ UTAH Jazz Utah Jazz -3 @ 1.95 - 2 units :D LA Clippers @ GS Warriors GS Warriors +1.5 @ 2.02 - 2 units :D POR TBlazers @ TOR Raptors Over 192 @ 1.9 - 2 units :eyes PARLAY - POR TBlazers @ TOR Raptors - Over 191.5 SA Spurs @ MIL Bucks - Under 203.5 @ 3.49 - 1 unit :eyes Todays Record: 4W-3L +2.02 units Previous Record: 6W-9L-1P -2.65 units New Record: 10W-12L-1P -0.63 units

[NBA: 2nd Jan]

Re: NBA: 2nd Jan MIN Timberwolves @ UTAH Jazz Utah Jazz -3 @ 1.95 - 2 unit Added another unit to this, game starts shortly. GL Duckets, Grizzlies looking good with 13 point lead right now.

[NBA: 2nd Jan]

Re: NBA: 2nd Jan Added: POR TBlazers @ TOR Raptors Over 192 @ 1.9 - 2 units PARLAY - POR TBlazers @ TOR Raptors - Over 191.5 SA Spurs @ MIL Bucks - Under 203.5 @ 3.49 - 1 unit

[NBA: 2nd Jan]

Re: NBA: 2nd Jan Final bets locked in. May be adding a couple more shortly. SA Spurs @ MIL Bucks Spurs -5.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units Under 203.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Memphis Grizzlies @ BOS Celtics Grizzles -3.5 @ 2.00 - 1 unit MIN Timberwolves @ UTAH Jazz Utah Jazz -3 @ 1.95 - 1 unit LA Clippers @ GS Warriors GS Warriors +1.5 @ 2.02 - 2 units

[NBA: 2nd Jan]

Opinions would be much appreciated. Leans for today (no bets yet): 76ers +5 Spurs -5 Rockets -9.5 Will make final picks in a few hours, haven't looked at the over/unders yet

[NBA: 1st Jan]

Re: NBA: 1st Jan LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets LA Clippers ML @ 2.06 - 2 units :eyes Denver played well but the Clippers missed a boatload of 3s, still think this was value. This made the difference between profit and loss on the day. Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Hawks ML @ 1.84 - 2 units :nana Over 185 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :eyes Ended with 181. Hawks couldn't quite reach 100 as predicted, if they did this would've won. Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks -3.5 @ 1.93 - 1 unit :nana On the day: 2W-2L -0.39 units NBA record: 6W-9L-1P -2.65 units

[NBA: 1st Jan]

Re: NBA: 1st Jan

Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Over 186.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit

Correction: Over 185 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Was going to take this at 186.5 but got over 185 @ 1.91 with Paddy Power

[NBA: 1st Jan]

Re: NBA: 1st Jan Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Over 186.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Hadn't noticed the line was so low on this, and seeing as I predicted earlier that the Hawks will go over 100 in this game I'll stick to my guns and take the overs here. Last 10 Hawks games: 7 out of 10 went over Last 10 Hornets Games: 6 out of 10 went over And if we look at how many games went over 185 for each of these teams: Hawks: 8 of last 10 games went over 185 Hornets: 7 of last 10 games went over 185

[NBA: 1st Jan]

Re: NBA: 1st Jan Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks -3.5 @ 1.93 - 1 unit Both teams are on horrific runs, both winning just 1 of their last 10, but the Mavericks have had the toughest competition. Dallas have just got back their MVP Nowitzki after being out for the season after knee surgery, and although he's been disappointing in his first 3 games back you have to look at the opposition in those games - Thunder, Nuggets and Spurs. Dallas were never expected to get much out of these games, going into them as +10.5, +3 and +6 dogs, respectively. But now we get to see Nowitzki in action against a team they're expected to beat, and if there was ever a stage to show your talents after coming back from injury this is it. Dallas are averaging 98.3 PPG, even without Nowitzki. The Wizards are averaging 88.8, worst in the NBA. Wizards current leading scorer Crawford came off on saturday with an ankle injury. He will play but may not be 100%. Dallas beat the Wizards 107-101 at home in November. Mavs are 12-19, Wizards 4-24

[NBA: 1st Jan]

Happy New Year folks! Let's try and start it off right. LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets LA Clippers ML @ 2.06 - 2 units The Clippers are currently on a franchise record 17 win streak and have just produced a 16-0 December, a perfect month for only the 3rd time in NBA history. The Clippers will obviously want to stretch this streak out for as long as possible, but with a tough lineup of games coming up (@Nuggets, @Warriors, Lakers, Warriors), they know they'll have to work their nuts off for it, and when facing a week like that while trying to extend a streak you have to think they'll come out strong in the first game. They're making history with the longest NBA streak in 4 years, and it's hard to quantify the motivation and confidence that gives. The Clippers beat Denver just a week ago 112-100 Clippers have won by 12 or more in 11 of their 17 win streak Their defense allowed 100 or more only 3 times in those 17 wins Clippers have won the last 2 in a row @ Denver Clippers have won the last 3 in a row against Denver overall I think Denver's home advantage is being overestimated here. They were +6.5 when they visited LA last week (which they didn't cover), and are now at -1 at home. They are 9-1 at home which is a powerful record, but I would've still expected the Clippers to be around -3 here with no real squad differences since the last game. It will be a very enjoyable game to watch and should be close, but I expect the Clippers defense and their stronger bench to make the difference here and I'll happily take the moneyline at over 2. Atlanta Hawks @ NO Hornets Hawks ML @ 1.84 - 2 units Yippee-kay-ay this is a nice price on Betfair. The Hawks are 19-10 this season and the Hornets are 7-23. Hawks are 8-5 Away, and the Hornets are 3-12 at home. Hawks average 98 PPG, Hornets average 91.6 (2nd worst in NBA). Hawks allow 94.2PPG when playing away, and 95.9 overall. Hornets allow 94.9PPG at home but 97.5 overall. TeamRankings give the Hawks -2 a 54.6% likelihood. Numberfire give the -3 a 58.5% likelihood. IMO the price is an overreaction to the return of Gordon for the Hornets, he came back and had a cracking game against the Bobcats on Saturday scoring 24 points in 25 minutes, but Charlotte does have the 2nd worst defense in the NBA right now and the Hornets still only scraped a 3 point victory, and to me that speaks volumes. I expect the Hawks to put up over 100 points here, as they have in 6 of their last 10 games, including 3 of 4 away games, and their last 4 games in a row. Meanwhile the Hornets have only put up 100 points once in their last 10 games. NBA record: 4W-7L-1P -2.26 units

[NFL: Week 17 picks]

Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Chiefs +17 @ 1.9 - 1 unit This is a big line for a game that has been historically pretty tight and underish. Obviously data from when Peyton wasn't there isn't much to go by but their last meeting was a 17-9 to Denver at Kansas, and Peyton was playing then. The Chiefs had a strong performance against the Colts last game, reaching over 500 offensive yards and holding the Colts to less than 300 yards, and the game was tied until a late Colts touchdown in the final minutes to win 17-10. Just to throw the historical odds out there, going back to 2010 the Chiefs have won 2 of 4 in this contest, and neither loss was into double digits. Overall I expect a Broncos win but can see the Chiefs making a fight of it. I don't think the Broncos will be going balls out for a riskless game where a win is just a bonus, and they certainly won't want to pick up any injuries going into the playoffs, so if they pick up a lead they could be inclined to rest players (ie Manning)

[NFL: Week 17 picks]

Re: NFL: Week 17 picks Bears @ Lions Bears -3 @ 2 - 2 units The Bears need to win here and hope the Packers beat the Vikings to seal a Wildcard spot. Jay Cutler knows how big this is and I'm confident that the Bears will do whatever's necessary to take this. Quote from Jay: "This is a big game. Last week was a big game. We've got to win. There is nothing else to be said about it... these are the games you've got to have." The Bears fate is out of their hands, but I fancy them to take charge of the one thing they can control and win this comfortably against a Lions team that has been in a real slump and only averaged 16 points in their last 3. Cowboys @ Redskins Redskins -3 @ 1.9 - 1 unit Big game for both teams, but I think RG3 will do the business here. The Redskins have the most potent rushing offense in the NFL right now (and a 5th ranked rush defense), and combined with RG3's ability to make big play passes and even pick up significant rushing yards himself, I'd expect a similar game to their 38-31 win over the Cowboys last month. Also looking at the Texans to take out the Colts and under 39.5 in the 49ers game but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

[NBA: 29th Dec]

Re: NBA: 29th Dec Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets +6.5 @ 1.9 - 1 unit :eyes Denver went into the 4th quarter with a 3 point lead and -1.5 faves, and thanks to a few of the worst minutes of basketball I've ever seen (including handing the ball to the opposition twice in a minute, running out of bounds on a fast break and not attempting a shot for over 2 minutes) they failed to cover the +6.5 and lost by 9. Almost looked like they wanted to throw the game, they just stopped playing. Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Warriors -3 @1.9 - 1 unit :nana Warriors ML @ 1.67 - 2 units :nana NO Hornets @ CHA Bobcats Under 190.0 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :eyes Went over in the last 16 seconds of the game. Cavaliers @ Nets Under 190.0 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :eyes Days record: 2W-3L -0.74 units Overall: 4W-7L-1P -2.26 units

[NBA: 29th Dec]

Re: NBA: 29th Dec Cavaliers @ Nets Under 190.0 @ 1.91 - 1 unit

[NBA: 29th Dec]

Re: NBA: 29th Dec NO Hornets @ CHA Bobcats Under 190.0 @ 1.91 - 1 unit

[NBA: 29th Dec]

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets +6.5 @ 1.9 - 1 unit

• The nuggets have won 3 of their last 4 games, including 2 impressive wins against the Lakers and Mavericks. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are coming off 2 losses, including a terrible performance against the 76ers.
• Denver are higher scorers, averaging 102.8 vs Memphis's 95.7, and it's the Nuggets defense that has them priced up this high, with the 2nd best defense in the NBA allowing 90.8 PPG, (as opposed to Denver's 100.6PPG allowed).
• Denver and Memphis have already faced off twice this season and Denver has won both by 97-92 and 99-94.
• After the Nuggets lost to the 76ers, Zach Randolph who leads the team in rebounds says the team had no energy. They've had a tough run with a number of away games in a short period, and they've only had a couple of days rest before today's tough test.

Given the above, I do think there's value in the moneyline here @ 3.2ish, but I'll take the safer option of the +6.5 as I think it's a very generous line given the Nuggets recent performances. Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Warriors -3 @1.9 - 1 unit Warriors ML @ 1.67 - 2 units Golden State are looking pretty hot right now and although the Celtics looked very sharp in a surprise win against the Nets, Golden state should outscore them comfortably here. This is the Celtics 3rd away game in 5 days and it's likely to be taking it's toll, perhaps shown by their last game where they only managed 77 points and lost by 29 points to the Clippers. The Celtics are only averaging 96.3 PPG vs the Warriors 101.3, and Golden State is 15-1 when holding foes to 98 points or fewer. NBA: Overall - 2W-4L-1P -1.5unit

[NBA: Boxing Day Picks]

Re: NBA: Boxing Day Picks

NO Hornets @ ORL Magic Magic -2.5 @ 1.88 - 1 unit :( -1u MIA Heat @ CHA Bobcats MIA Heat HT/FT @ 1.5 - 1 unit :D +0.5u NY Knicks @ Phoenix Suns Knicks -2 @ 1.91 - 2 units (PUSH - Knicks won by 2) +0u HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves Rockets +5.5 @ 2 - 2 units :D +2u LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Under 214.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :( -1u Lakers +3.5 @ 1.99 - 1 unit :( -1u Cavaliers @ Wizards Cavaliers Win 1st Quarter @2.1 - 1 unit :( -1u Overall - 2W-4L-1P / -1.5u

[NBA: Boxing Day Picks]

Re: NBA: Boxing Day Picks

Cavaliers @ Wizards Cavaliers Win 1st Quarter @2.1 - 1 unit :(

Disappointing start. Wizards came out strong, Cavs were creating chances and forcing turnovers but couldn't find the net, hitting the rim repeatedly on easy layups and 2 fouls not called. Still think there was value in the bet, Wizards just overperformed while Cavs screwed up.

[NBA: Boxing Day Picks]

Not sure what the protocol is on making threads so sorry if I'm stepping on any toes but didn't see a suitable thread for tonight picks. So let's get to it: NO Hornets @ ORL Magic Magic -2.5 @ 1.88 - 1 unit Simple pick here, the Hornets are on an 11 game losing streak, and even blew a 22 point lead at home vs Indiana on saturday. They don't look capable of finishing games strongly and although the stats have this game close, I fully expect Orlando to cover this line. MIA Heat @ CHA Bobcats MIA Heat HT/FT @ 1.5 - 1 unit The Heat are deservedly big faves here, and I find myself in the annoying spot of wanting to back them but not being comfortable with a 10 point handicap. Miami should win and should do it comfortably, I'm just not a fan of backing faves on big handicaps, so I'll take them HF/FT. Some first half stats: Miami average 52.6 1H this season, 50.6 away, 53 in last 3 games Charlotte average 46.9 1H this season, 47.4 home, 47 in last 3 games Miami allow 50.4 1H this season, 50.8 away, 44.3 in last 3 games Charlotte allow 54 1H this season, 52.4 home, 62 in last 3 games NY Knicks @ Phoenix Suns Knicks -2 @ 1.91 - 2 units HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves Rockets +5.5 @ 2 - 2 units This line feels like a gift, Rockets are averaging 106 PPG vs MIN's 95.5, and although Timberwolves have a strong home defense I can't see them holding Houston back enough to get the win, let alone cover the -5.5. Houston are also coming off a nice 4 streak, winning by 20+ points in 3 of those games, and are certainly the team with the momentum right now. LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Under 214.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Lakers +3.5 @ 1.99 - 1 unit Lakers are the better team IMO, and with Nash coming back to join the ranks they've got a certain spring in their step, and always looked like they were going to snatch a tight win despite trailing for most of the game vs the Knicks. Expect another big game from Kobe and Metta and the Lakers to outscore them on 3 pointers by a good margin. Unders is too high. Cavaliers @ Wizards Cavaliers Win 1st Quarter @2.1 - 1 unit Crazy line, Cavs should be fave here as far as I'm concerned and the stats point towards a 25-20ish win. Cleveland average 24.2 Q1, 25.4 away, 22.3 in last 3 games Washington average 20.1 Q1, 21.1 home, 17.7 in last 3 games OPP POINTS SCORED Cleveland allow 24.7, 25.6 away, 23.0 in last 3 Washington allow 25.8, 25.8 home, 26 in last 3

[West Ham v Chelsea > Sat 1st December]

Re: West Ham v Chelsea > Sat 1st December Under 2.5 @ 1.91 Betfair 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.4 Betfair Not much to add from what others have said. This is all about Benitez and his defensive impact on the team. I'd questioned how much effect he could have so soon with the same line-up, but 2 0-0 draws suggests he is. Plus the fact that Torres is still in such horrible form, scoring just 1 goal in his last 11 appearances, and Rafa complaining about the squad being too small and the players getting too tired as a result, doesn't bode well for goals.

[Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 1st December]

Re: Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 1st December

Fulham play open and attacking football and 5 out of their 6 home games produced 3 or more goals and they have scored in all of their home games. They have good players in attack and in my opinion can score against Tottenham, since the Spurs have kept only 1 clean sheet in 14 games this season and that was a home win against Aston Villa. Moreover, "Both to Score" and "Over 2.5 Goals" bet would have won in all of Tottenham's away games so my suggested bets for an accumulator are: ​Both to Score @ 1.53 ​William Hill Over 2.5 Goals @ ​1.70 ​Bet365

I have exactly the same bets: BTTS @ 1.55 on Betfair Over 2.5 @ 1.76 on Betfair Fulham last failed to score at home 11 games ago Spurs last failed to score away 9 games ago Spurs last kept an away clean sheet 10 games ago. 5/6 Fulham home games have gone over 2.5 this season. 6/6 Spurs away games have gone over 2.5 this season The prices may not seem big at first glance, but considering both teams recent form I think there's value in both of these bets. Spurs are looking good going forward and look to have goals in them against a leaky Fulham side that isn't nearly as strong at home as they were in the not too distant past. But at the same time Spurs are conceding consistently away and almost as consistently at home, and Fulham's underish grinding home games of old seem to have been replaced with overish shootouts as Fulham's attacking confidence has improved.

[Championship > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec]

Re: Championship > 30th Nov - 2nd Dec I've taken Middlesborough @ 2.78 with Betfair for tonight. Brum haven't got into any sort of rythm this season, sitting in the bottom quarter of the table and looking like they're going to struggle to take 3 points from anyone. Meanwhile Middlesborough have been on a nice hot streak, winning 8 of their last 11 including an away win vs Sunderland in the cup. The draw's a worry, and I'm tempted to back the 1-1 as insurance, but I think the price is good enough for a lone bet on the straight win here.