valuepunter
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Posts posted by valuepunter
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Re: Burnley v Hull City > Saturday November 8th Hull have scored 15 goals in their last 10 in all competitions. Burnley have scored 4 in their last 10, failing to score in 7/10. Hull @ 3 With bet365 for me
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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Is bet365 always so slow adjusting their NFL odds? Couple days ago AFTER Giovanni Bernard was confirmed out vs Jax, Jeremy Hill was 2.25 anytime TD scorer. The next day, after no new news he was 1.66. Arizona opened at +4.5 and came down to +2.5 as of yesterday, with news that Romo had 2 transverse process fractures. He would never have played today even when listed as questionable which is meant to be 50/50, it's just not worth the long term risk of taking a big hit while fractures are healing in his already troubled spine, when a week off will have him almost completely recovered. Wake up today and the inevitable confirmation is here that he's out, now AZ is -1. Now I'm left feeling like a mug for not taking either bet and trusting that the lines were already adjusted. Moral of the story: trust your research and pull the damn trigger, especially in tradable situations. Couple picks this week: Bengals -10 @ 1.9 bet365 With AJ Green back to give Dalton back his most dangerous target, Sanu playing out of his mind, Geno Atkins playing better week on week with his last game against ravens being his best game since his ACL tear I really like this matchup for a blowout. Normally don't like laying this many points but I think Cinci's D really shows up today and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jags held under 10. Dalton pretty consistently rocks a 10 points higher QBR at home, and this is a much needed win for the Bengals who are amid the most competitive division in the league. Jax have lost 5/8 by more than 10, only staying within 10 against the Titans, Browns (who they beat), and the Steelers when they were struggling to put up points before their recent outbursts. I think Cinci has a fun night tonight. Denver -3 @ 1.86 bet365 Peyton and crew vs Brady and Gronk. How can you bet against the team that Gronk himself called the best in football right now? After the frustrating comeback last year (Broncos were up over 20), there's payback on the menu. Peyton knows he doesn't have a great record against Brady as a Bronco, and I think he'll really want to put that right on the year that is probably his best chance for another superbowl ring. Broncos D have been really impressive, and I think aqib talib will play a big role tonight in the secondary, and he's the man to do it. Patriots D will really struggle to handle Manning's passing game and O line, and if either defense is capable of stopping drives and making plays in this matchup of elite QBs it should be Denver's. Im leaning towards so many away teams this week it scares me, but I think these 2 and the Colts tomorrow might be my lot.
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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Mark Ingram (NO) Over 65.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 - bet365 Perfect spot for Ingram, with the other running backs in rotation Robinson and Pierre Thomas both confirmed out, Ingram will be the lone workhorse running the ball vs GB's 31st ranked rush defense. Ingram should now be chomping at the bit for this opportunity after just coming off injury break and being held to 1.6 yards per carry last game by the brick wall known as Detroit's O line. Bottom line, Ingram will get extra carries, will have a point to prove and will be up against the 2nd weakest Rush D this year. Medium stakes.
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Re: Manchester City v Liverpool > Boxing Day Don't want to overthink this one, City at home at over 1.8? Against a team that are completely overachieving based mostly on the talents of 1 player? City should be closer to 1.55-1.6 here in my book. Aguero out doesn't change much for me, City have been knocking goals in all over the place and haven't been overly reliant on their frontmen, virtually the whole team seems to be in scoring form. Of their last 16 goals (over last 4 games, all competitions), Aguero has only scored 1. The rest have come from: Toure (2), Kompany, Navas, Milner (2), Kolarov (2), Dzeko (2), Negredo, Fernandinho (2), Silva (2) That's from just 4 games, lol. Liverpool have had some high scoring games too lately, scoring 17 in their last 4, but 10 of those have come from Suarez. Shut down Suarez effectively (easier said than done I admit) and Liverpool are much less threatening. Also note that 3 of those last 4 games were against teams ranked 14th (Norwich), 15th (Cardiff) and 17th (West Ham), and the other was against a struggling Tottenham. In contrast, 2 of City's last 4 were wins over Arsenal and Bayern (scored 9, conceded 5) I don't even need to quote City's home stats, but in Liverpool's last 5 away they have 1 win (Spurs), 2 Draws (Everton and Newcastle) and 2 losses (Arsenal and HULL!). Bottom line I just don't see Liverpool getting anything out of this. They'd need an impressive defensive performance just to stop City from breaching the O2.5 on their own, and I can't see them going goal for goal aginst City and keeping up. I'll take City @ 1.84 on Betfair with a smile. Win or lose this price is a late XMas gift IMO.
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Re: NFL Week One Picks Don't have time for a writeup but I fully agree with mcege's post on this game, just wanted to throw this up before the game starts: Redskins -3.5 @ 1.95 - 5 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks I haven't given up on this, just had a couple of bad nights so took a couple of days off betting and just watched the games. Sun 14 Jan Picks OKC Thunder @ POR TBlazers Thunder -4.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors Raptors -4 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D MEM Grizzlies @ GS Warriors Warriors -1.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units :( Houston Rockets @ NO Hornets Rockets -2.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units :( Todays record: 1W-2L -2.18 units Updated NBA record: 18W-25L-1P -11.49 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks 3rd bet for today, have a couple more leans but I really like all 3 of these bets so may leave it like this. Houston Rockets @ NO Hornets Rockets -2.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units Rockets PPG: 106.8 away: 104.0 Hornets PPG: 91.8 home: 87.8 Rockets allow: 103.7 away: 104.8 Hornets allow: 97.3, home: 94.5 Rockets won their last 4 straight road games and are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Hornets are 1-3 in their last 4 home games, and 4-6 in their last 10 overall. Rockets have scored over 100 points in 8 of their last 10, over 110 in 7 of their last 10, and over 120 in 4 of their last 10. Hornets last scored over 100 points 13 games ago, and have only scored 100+ in regular time 4 times in 34 games. I won't go more into the stats because this is more a game of styles than stats. The Hornets just put up a brilliant defensive performance against the Spurs, and made the game really frustrating for them (and me, because I was backing spurs). Some of the best defensive play I've seen from any team this season, which is pretty shocking considering the Hornets are 9-25 and 4-13 at home. But they're playing the Rockets who I've been in love with this season, and right now they just don't look like losing to anyone outside the top 6 or so teams. When they go behind they always seem to have an extra gear to switch into, and they haven't struggled at all against strong defensive teams - they beat Memphis (#1 defense) by 25 points just before christmas and went to Chicago (#3 defense) and beat them by 23 on christmas day. So while the Hornets defense has looked good I still can't see them really holding Houston back much, especially with the form Harden is in. And although the Rockets defense is virtually non-existent, they can outscore just about anyone and with the Hornets averaging just 87.8PPG at home , they will have to overperform at both ends of the court to keep this close.
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: MEM Grizzlies @ GS Warriors Warriors -1.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units Grizzlies PPG: 94.8 96.4 away Warriors PPG: 101.4 102.6 home Grizzlies allow: 89.1 91.9 away Warriors allow: 99.1 96.8 home Grizzlies are 9-6 away Warriors are 11-4 home Grizzlies are 3-3 ATS as away dog Warriors are 8-2 ATS as home fave Grizzlies toughest road opponent since XMas was @Pacers, where they lost 88-83 Warriors toughest home opponent since XMas was vs Clippers, where they won 115-94. Grizzlies have played 4 games since new years, 3 of them on the road. This will be their 3rd road game in 4 nights. Warriors have played 2 games since new years, 1 on the road. Warriors have the revenge factor after losing their season opening home game to the Grizzlies. This should be a close game and a big factor will be how the Grizzlies perform on defense, but with the odds virtually a "pick em", the Warriors with home advantage and confident after just beating the Clippers in their last home game and the Grizzlies on their 3rd road game in 4 days, this looks like a good spot for the Warriors.
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Wed 09/01 Picks PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors Raptors -4 @ 1.91 - 2 units 76ers PPG: 92.8 away 91.1 Raptors PPG: 96.7 home: 98.6 76ers allow: 96.9 away: 96.2 Raptors allow: 99.5 home 95.7 76ers played 5 games since new year, 4 on the road. Raptors played 3 games since new year, all at home. 76ers have 3 wins in last 10 games Raptors have 7 wins in last 10 games. 76ers are 6-10 ATS as an away dog Raptors are 5-3 ATS as home fave 76ers coach talking about their last game's loss to Brooklyn: "I thought we were an incredibly tired team, I think we played that way," coach Doug Collins said. "No rest for the weary. Got to get on a plane and go to Toronto." They don't sound up for the game. They will be looking forward to their upcoming 2 days break and then 4 straight home games, and 11 out of 12 of their next games are at home, so this is a game they will just want to get out of the way after playing 8 straight road games before their most recent loss to Brooklyn. Raptors are the much fresher team and they have the revenge factor as they lost their last 2 straight to philly. But the raptors have been much better from december while the 76ers have been in a real slump and struggling with their hectic road schedule, going 5-15 since the start of december and 2-11 on the road. I expect the 76ers to really struggle here and I don't see much fight in them at the moment with a dismal performance against the Nets last game. The Raptors aren't exactly setting the world alight but they've been strong at home recently and should have enough to dispatch a tired, sick-of-travelling 76ers team.
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Re: VP's NBA Picks MIA Heat @ IND Pacers Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes ATL Hawks @ MIN Timberwolves Hawks +1 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Under 188.5 @ 1.90 - 2 units :eyes Worst night since I started this on boxing day, put a lot less time into researching these so lesson learned. Anyone looking for a winning strategy should seriously just go the opposite of my over/under bets, now 1-10 on those lol. Todays record: 0W-3L -6 units Updated NBA record: 17W-23L-1P -9.31 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: ATL Hawks @ MIN Timberwolves Hawks +1 @ 1.91 - 2 units Under 188.5 @ 1.90 - 2 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks
Never pulled the trigger on the grizzlies or bulls, so of course both covered the spread lol, sod's law. Could've been a 3-1 day Today's record: 1W-1L -0.18 units Updated NBA record: 17W-20L-1P -3.31 units Tues 08/01 Picks Getting this one in early, Miami are about to start a 6 game road stretch and I think they'll want to start it off strong and send a message here. They've had a couple of days rest since their last game, and although the Pacers have overperformed at home that run won't last forever, and the Heat are more than capable of winning what they will see as a key game for morale going into that road stretch. MIA Heat @ IND Pacers Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 - 2 unitsMonday 07/01 Picks SA Spurs @ NO Hornets Spurs -7.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz Jazz -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Also leaning towards the grizzlies and bulls on gut instinct but still need to crunch some numbers. Should have at least one more bet posted later. -
Re: Have I found the holy grail of roulette strategies? "And if you bet on a position where the return is 3x the bet the profit is always the value of the 'winning' bet plus the starting bet. " Are you saying you're trying the martingale system while betting the rows at 2-1? Because if that's the case you'll find you have 8 loss streaks pretty damn often over a decent sample size. The Martingale system only works in theory with an infinite bankroll. As Einstein famously said "the only way to beat roulette is to steal the money when the dealer's not looking"
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Monday 07/01 Picks SA Spurs @ NO Hornets Spurs -7.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units This line has already moved to -8 most places but paddypower still has the 7.5 so I'm jumping on this before it moves. I'm expecting it to move to -8.5/-9 throughout the day. Hornets average 87.4 PPG at home Spurs average 104.7 PPG away Spurs are 22-13-1 ATS and 13-7 SU on the road Hornets are 16-17 ATS and 3-12 SU at home DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz Jazz -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Also leaning towards the grizzlies and bulls on gut instinct but still need to crunch some numbers. Should have at least one more bet posted later.
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Re: VP's NBA Picks CHA Bobcats @ DET Pistons Under 194.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :@ Bobcats +9 @ 1.8 - 2 units :D I fancied the bobcats to keep it close, but they kept it too bloody close and tied it up at 96-96 (192 points) at the end of regular time, taking it to overtime and leaving my under 194.5 bet with blue balls... so close MEM Grizzlies @ PHE Suns Suns + 4.5 @ 2.00 - 2 units :eyes Under 185.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Today's record: 2W-2L -0.38 units Updated record: 16W-19L-1P -3.13 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Sunday 07/01 Picks CHA Bobcats @ DET Pistons Under 194.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Bobcats +9 @ 1.8 - 2 units MEM Grizzlies @ PHE Suns Suns + 4.5 @ 2.00 - 2 units Under 185.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks BOS Celtics @ ATL Hawks Hawks -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Hawks had a nice 15 point lead at half time and threw it away in spectacular fashion in the 3rd quarter. HOU Rockets @ CLE Cavaliers Rockets -6 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Rockets -10.5 @ 2.88 - 1 unit :eyes Close, Houston won by 8. Feel like Cleveland's impressive free throw % is the only reason this didn't come in. Not sure what the end % was but at one point they were 100% with 17/17 and their first free throw miss was in the final minute of the game! POR TBlazers @ MIN TWolves Portland +6.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :D Todays record: 2W-2L -0.27 units Updated record: 14W-17L-1P -2.75 units
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: POR TBlazers @ MIN TWolves Portland +6.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Love was questionable but now expected to be out for the TWolves after news he has refractured his right hand. Rubio still out. This will be a tough test for Minnesota without their leading scorer Love, and the line has only moved from 7.5 to 6.5 since news got out he isn't playing. Happy to take the 6.5 points on Portland here after just beating the Grizzlies and Knicks away in their last 3 games and when MIN is without Love.
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Sat 05/01 Picks BOS Celtics @ ATL Hawks Hawks -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units The Celtics put on an impressive defensive performance last night against the Pacers, but the Pacers horrible shooting percentages on the night made the scoreline a bit flattering. But the Celtics are an aging team on the second leg of a b2b and are a very different proposition on the road with a 5-11 away record (Atlanta are 11-5 at home this season). In the previous 4 games before beating the Pacers, the Celtics were allowing 104.5 PPG and averaging only 84.8 themselves, and I expect a return to similar form here. The Celtics record ATS as an away dog is 2-7-1. HOU Rockets @ CLE Cavaliers Rockets -6 @ 1.91 - 2 units Rockets -10.5 @ 2.88 - 1 unit I'll preface this by saying I may be a little biased here, but the Rockets are flying at the moment (ba dum dum tshhh). They've won 8 of their last 10, only losing to top 3 sides SA Spurs and OKC Thunder, and have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10. Their average PPG seems to increase every time I look at it, and they're the highest scoring team in the NBA with 106.1PPG (Cleveland average 94.2 overall, 93.3 at home). The Rockets defense, for the most part, is horrible. Absolutely atrocious, as shown in the 2nd quarter last night against the Bucks, where they allowed 37 points in the second quarter. But then we witnessed what happens when a top scoring team actually pays attention to playing defense, and they pulled out a 30-14 shutout in the 3rd quarter, turning an 11 point deficit into a 5 point lead which the Bucks could never recover from. No doubt the Rockets will be on a high after that performance and hopefully they can take away a lesson on the importance of defense. One thing that's in no doubt - the Rockets pace will be as relentless as always. They like to play fast and put up big points, but if they can also show even glimpses of the defensive performance they put on in the 3rd quarter last night they could absolutely destroy Cleveland who have a 3-11 home record this year.[TABLE=class: sortable]
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Re: VP's NBA Picks Houston -1.5 @ 2.1 - 2 units :D Indiana +2.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units :eyes Indiana -4 @ 3.25 - 1 unit :eyes Clippers -4.5 @ 1.95 - 1 unit :D (posted here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/136654-NBA-4th-of-January) Todays record: 2W-2L +0.15 units Updated record: 12W-15L-1P -2.48 units
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Re: NBA 4th of January :nana Epic game, edge of your seat stuff at the end for spread bettors when the lead dropped to 4 with less than 20 on the clock, but came good in the end :)
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Re: NBA 4th of January Nice writeup, I was going to avoid this game because my gut said the line was just slightly too high, but the more I look at it the more I fancy the Clippers. They're still on track to make a franchise record 11 straight home wins, and when a player comes out criticising his teammates it's not going to help the cohesion of the team, especially coming from someone as selfish on the court as Bryant. Gasol's foot is still causing problems and with Butler coming back for the Clippers the pendulum certainly seems to be swinging strongly in the clippers direction. So... I'll pull the trigger too. GL :ok Clippers -4.5 @ 1.95 - 1 unit
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Don't want to clutter up the forum too much so I'll be putting my picks in here unless there's another thread. Record: 10W-13L-1P -2.63 units Just realized I'm 0-8 on over/unders so probably best to fade me on those lol. On the positive side I'm 10-5 on spread and ml picks so will look to keep that up tonight. Fri 04/01 Picks: Houston -1.5 @ 2.1 - 2 units Indiana +2.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units Indiana -4 @ 3.25 - 1 unit
NFL > 2014-2015 Matches
in NFL Predictions
Posted
Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Falcons -3 @ 2.00 bet365 The Falcons have been plagued by injuries but still put up impressive numbers offensively. Last game against the Lions was the first game the lineup was close to full strength since week 2 or 3, and the difference was noticeable in the first half, taking a 21-0 lead against possibly the best defense in the league. This week they're off a bye and only 1 player listed as out, with all probable/questionable players at least having full practise Friday. It's also a key game for them to keep their theoretical playoff hopes alive, with the Panthers and Saints both having tough games this week, this is a real line in the sand game for Atlanta, and they can make up vital ground in the division with a win. The Buccs are dead last (32nd) in the league in passing yards allowed, 29th in opponent passing yards per attempt and 32nd in opponent PPG, so they're a perfect matchup for Atlanta who's strength is their passing game (6th in passing YPG) vs a team allowing opponents to hit 70% of their targets (30th in league). The Buccs are also 31st in PPG averaging just 18.8 per game vs Atlanta's 24. Oh, and Atlanta smashed the Buccs 56-14 earlier this season, which helps. Over 46.5 @ 1.90 bet365 Carrying on, I may slightly contradict myself, because while I expect a good passing performance from Ryan and the Falcons the Buccs are hard workers and have a have a habit of keeping games close (with the sole exception of the games against Atlanta and Baltimore), they've also had a schedule littered with pretty good defenses and close games, so nobody would expect them to have great offensive stats at this point. It should be noted that Atlanta's defense has been awful too - dead last in the league in opponent YPG and opponent yards per pass attempt. So while Tampa have struggled against above average defenses they have a chance to contribute to the overs here against atlanta's very generous defense. If we look through Tampa's opponents defenses and compare them to Atlanta's, the closest would be the Saints, who Tampa put up 31 points against. I think the Buccs will need to be putting up points to keep this close, and may end up chasing which can lead to big totals. In the battle of the 2 worst defenses in the league I'm taking the much better offense and the over.