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Staines Passive

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    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    Noticed from today: Coral: £100 Cardiff 10/11 - return £190.91 £100 Dunfermline Ev - lost £100 £100 Morton 6/4 - return £250 Ladbrokes £100 Morton 11/8 - return £237.50 £100 Norwich 4/7 - return £157.14 £100 Bradford 11/10 - return £210 Also taking Betfred: £100 Norwich @ 4/7 - return £157.14 £100 Liverpool @ 4/5 - lost £100
    After results: Stake: £2900 Return: £3423 Profit / Loss £523

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    Just noticed the mighty Irvine Meadow was one of your picks earlier, even though the odds were cut they were still huge under dogs, wouldnt have been confident with staking the 100£ on them, and its only that result that has you in profit. I guess with a bigger sample size this system would be profitable though!
    Well thats the point - if there not willing to accept bets on them there is a fair reason - were using level stakes on everything just to keep in simple.

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    Mate I am here following with definate interest because it seems to make a fair bit of sense. Just so Ive got it right, is there anyway to check this list without having to go to the shop? Maybe if you try to put a large bet through Ladbrokes on Chelsea and it says it cant do it because of the limit?
    No you need to be in a shop - the point is your betting on a coupon - if you try and do it online you will see there price is no longer 4/7 but 4/9

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! Hi Salparadise When someone is having a big football bet they have to check there screens to see if its one that's on there list - I just make sure I look whilst there looking - and if your friendly with the shop managers they will usually let you know anyway. Nice to know that someone is actually reading this stuff as I thought I was talking to myself! Noticed that the following is on tonight: Chelsea 4/7 vs Blackburn with Ladbrokes so we will have £100 on that So updated figs: Stake: £2100 Return: £2317 Profit / Loss +217 Outstanding bets: £100 Man City @ 21/20 £100 Chelsea @ 4/7

    Best Low Risk Football ?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Best Low Risk Football ? Get rich quick scheme eh?! There is no hard and fast rule IMO - you can get a low risk bet as in something thats low odds - but unless its a value bet there is no point on doing it. Eg - is backing a team that are 2-0 up at half time @ odds of 1.2 for instance a good idea? Maybe for 1 game, maybe even for a dozen games. You have to understand what is and isn't a value bet yourself and stick to it - keep track of your bets, if your not winning or within say 10% of you stake after 100 bets you need to look at it again. Having a look at the 2.5 goals market is an interesting one, its as much a 50-50 market as you should be able to get.

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    First post here. This system will win money, I can guarantee that 100%. However it's going to be nowhere near as good as it would have been 3+ years ago. Back then if something was 6/5 and odds on it went on the restricted/MYC list, now anything at 6/5 that goes 2.16 will be on there. So it will be including a lot more marginal bets. E.g Montenegro last week, I think the lowest they went was about 2.04 on betfair, before an eventual SP of about 2.18. Taking 11/10 on them won't win anything in the long run! But this system will encompass enough even money shots that should be 8/11 to make money, for sure. Also, it probably doesn't have long in it. Coral especially tend to restrict to £24 these days, so that's 5 shops to get £100 on. Unless you live in london or a city centre that's a lot of hassle. I accept its an imaginary trial, but just trying to add some perspective.
    No your right, Coral would usually restrict to £45-£50 - but in the same Ladbrokes will only ever restrict to £100 - and most people could easily get to 2 ladbrokes/coral if they felt the need to. I do expect this would make cash - inspite of the current results, but have questioned at what point do you spot it - eg with Paddy Power today you could have (and should have) taken 11/10 St Johnstone on the weekend - will be evens with them now and 5/6 with most- but by the time of print most people will not believe I have taken 11/10 maybe? I will continue to run with it a little while with coupon available prices.

    My Unders System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Unders System

    I think that's probably debatable. Both teams missed chances, as both teams normally do - it was one of the factors that attracted me to the "under." If you're going to talk about the balance of luck, you might just as easily point out one of the goals was an own goal, so it might easily have finished 0-1. ;)
    Come on, 3 cleared off the line before I even mention missed chances - at least let me cling on to bad luck!! 19 shots on target was only 2 less than the spurs game!

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! This weeks restricted bets: Ladbrokes West Ham £100 6/4 Betfred Dagenham £100 6/5 Sorry lads have had a busy weekend, I'm sure there must have been more than this but these are the only 2 I noticed] Congrats the bookie again for limiting bets on losing selections: Results Stake £1000 Return £582 Profit / Loss -£418

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    Not much of a system here, but an interesting trial I think. It's nothing more than backing the things that the shops restrict you on, for some time I have had bets restricted, and have considered tracking all the mark your cards etc. So........ just out of interest I will be backing a imaginary £100 on the restricted list that the high street bookies set: I'm going to backdate it to yesterday as this was when I decided to take it, and as its not exactly my picks I'm sure people here wont have a problem with me backdating it - and it was only 1 loss 1 win yesterday anyhow. If anyone comes across any of these feel free to add them, I may occasionally have to add them after the game, but will try my best not to - but as discuss as I am not after any praise for these I'm sure people wont mind me placing these after KO etc? So: Mondays Bets: Lads: Gimna Plata £100 @ 11/10 Rosario Central £100 @ 6/5 Tuesdays Bets: Lads: South Africa £100 @ 4/5 Stevenage £100 @ 5/4 Coral: South Africa £100 @ 5/6 Stevenage £100 @ 5/4 Wednesday Bets: Lads: Montenegro £100 @ 11/10 Coral: Poland £100 @ 8/11

    Results Stake £200 Return £210 Profit / Loss +£10

    Tuesdays Bets: Lads: South Africa £100 @ 4/5 Stevenage £100 @ 5/4 Coral: South Africa £100 @ 5/6 Stevenage £100 @ 5/4 Wednesday Bets: Lads: Montenegro £100 @ 11/10 Coral: Poland £100 @ 8/11

    Results Stake £800 Return £582 Profit / Loss -£218

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    Hmm interesting idea. Any selections for 2day? If the bookies are restricing you because of changes in betfair prices, then I would assume that their price is not wrong, but the market fluctuating. For example, if Man U play then im guessing that Man U fans would place bets for them to win even if there was no hope for them. But then again, there is a post on here called Follow the Money - and they have a sort of similur idea in that they back the horse which has the most bets placed on it at a specific time of day - I will be watching both with interest. Good Luck
    The point is that the high street bookies dont care really what the correct price is anymore, and they are much happier to accept a betfair price than a price they set themselves. Fair play to ladbrokes for going against the grain this weekend - but in general everyone has the same boring prices, and everyone panics about the same prices. I am just interested if the bookies would make more or less cash from actually showing a bit of bolox and backing there own prices.

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    hi staines how do you mean the bookies restrict you?
    For shop based betting - they print there midweek coupons and send them to the shops on Monday - for someone like ladbrokes they send weekend coupons to shop for wednesday. so come monday morning there will be changes in the prices as betfair moves so the panic that there price is incorrect and that everyone must be arbing so restrict you to £100 bets - eg in ladbrokes its usually on a screen called "mark your cards"
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