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Staines Passive

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Posts posted by Staines Passive

    Pullein Power

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Match Ratings -snappy title coming soon

    Hello mate I understand the importance of value. But I also want a reasonable strike rate, I dont want to be betting selections I know will only win this fixture once in twelve seasons.
    Like the system but completely disagree with this statement. You shouldn't think about strike rate before profit, and if you decide that betting on value brings you the largest profit and believe you have a way of picking the value you have to follow it. And don't think of it like a one in twelve seasons thing, think of it as a one in 12 bets

    Best bet of the day - Dec 16th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day - Dec 16th

    12:50 Newbury. Fistral Beach. 1 point LAY I've won a fair bit on laying this one in the past, and fancy taking him on today again. The horse has a remarkable record.
    • He has run 7 times over jumps and started favourite in all of them (and will do again today - currently around 7/4)
    • He has been a beaten favourite all 7 times!
    • But not beaten by much - he has come 2nd in six of those races (and was 3rd in the other).

    He must have cost punters a small fortune. Of course he has been a tad unlucky to have a record like that, so often finding just one to beat him, and he has been made favourite each time on the basis that "he must finally get his head in front this time." And indeed today could be the day he finally does. But at the current odds, I think there is value in betting against him. There is usually a reason why a horse is 2nd so often. In his case I feel it is partly his tendency for jumping errors, plus an occasional unwillingness to battle. His mark as a hurdler was coming down, but after his first race as a chaser (his decent 2nd LTO) it's gone up a further 5lbs again. This won't help, and with a number of promising chasers to contend with I feel it is worth speculating that he'll find at least one of them too good for him again today.

    2 9 Fistral Beach (IRE) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 2/1 f
    chased leader, led 4th, narrowly headed approaching 10th, regained lead 10th, ridden and headed 3 out, still every chance 2 out, no extra and well held before last opened 7/4
    ring any bells?!

    Bb Under/over System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Bb Under/over System Its not so much the stats they come up with perhaps, I would only ever use my own calculations to decide my bets - but its the layout of the website etc I don't like (bit of a girly comment maybe!) I didnt like navagating around it etc - will have another look at it tomorrow. Please dont see this as my hijacking your post or bitching etc please - following with interest on any over/unders system here!

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! Fair comments, I would have thought more people would have been knowing what bets were restricted etc so others would also be updating this thread. I will drop it for now, but I think most people would find if they just ask in there local shop if there were any restrictions on football today they would tell you what games - some are funny about it but bookmakers treat there shop staff so badly most of them want the punters to win anyway!

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! Hi muppet, I am usually out and about, especially on a Saturday, doing my own stuff - so its hard to update them before kick off - as most of you will know most of the action occurs close to kick off so I am usually out right up to kick off so dont get back in time to update them. Im sure most people could get the manager of there local betting shop to show them the bets that were restricted if you nice and polite etc.

    My Unders System

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: My Unders System

    When I first paper trailed my theories on unders last year, I did paper trail a similar approach to overs, but without success. In all honesty, that was exactly what I expected. My approach is largely based around attacking play, using Paul R's stats as a basis, to which I then add other criteria. If a team doesn't have a system that leads to attacking and creating chances, that's probably true whoever they play. However, the same theory doesn't really carry across to overs, IMHO. The top 6 teams or so in each division will often have high points on Paul's ratings, but that's because they are mostly significantly better than the majority of their opponents, and so spend a lot of time in the opposition half. However, when they are playing other top teams they no longer have that dominance. As an obvious example, Man U and Chelsea always have high ratings, built up against much inferior opponents. But when they play each other, it doesn't automatically give an indication of a high scoring match since (a) neither will have such dominance and (b) they will both be a little more cautious of risking going a goal behind than if they were playing a lesser team, and will be less cavalier about looking for a second goal should they take the lead. I've never tested my theories in foreign leagues - perhaps I should. But my fear is that I'd end up with far too many selections each weekend.
    Hi Palaceman, As discussed I am currently trying to formulate an overs system - its currently running at about 10% profit, but when I am a little more confident about it I will share it on here. In the time being I would have thought spreading your system over more leagues would make perfect sense. It means that not only can you be more selective in your bets (perhaps making 1.9 minimum odds?) but you can also make sure that you avoid the even numbers this way? Also as discussed there is some real value if you can pick an over in some leagues such as the Dutch leagues - you can pretty much always get around 2.0 - 2.8 on a under in that league. As ever wish you all the luck for the weekend, and hope that your unders dont clash with my overs :ok

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! Results after today and yesterdays matches: £100 Wolfsburg @ 6/5 :@ £100 Accrington @ 11/4 :nana £100 Maccabi Haifa 11/8 :@ £100 Wolfsburg @ 13/10 :@ £100 Wolfsburg -1 @ 4/1 :@ Liverpool £100 @ Ev :@ Liverpool £100 @ Ev :@ Liverpool -1 £100 @ 3/1 :@ Congrats the bookies! Stake: £3700 Return: £3798 Profit / Loss +£98

    The Ones They Don't Want You To Back!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The Ones They Don't Want You To Back! Noticed tonight: Everyone blocking Wolfsburg but will take the following: Ladbrokes: £100 Wolfsburg @ 6/5 £100 Accrington @ 11/4 £100 Maccabi Haifa 11/8 Coral: £100 Wolfsburg @ 13/10 £100 Wolfsburg -1 @ 4/1 Betfred: £100 Besiktas @ 6/4 Could have put more of Wolfsburg but will leave it there.

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