trips
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Posts posted by trips
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Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl
I think one of the main considerations for hedging your bets is the price you are giving, If say you think Baltimore and SF is a pick then hedging your bet is value, someone is taking your bet of say 4/9 for SF when you believe the true price is evens, you may however feel SF are 1/4 favourites to beat Baltimore so offering someone 4/9 just to cash out is not a good idea, IMO I think there is an argument to hedge SF at 1/2- 4/9 , I think SF are more like 8/13 -4/7 shots against Baltimore.If I was looking to bet on this game I would side with the Ravens at the current prices. I do believe that the 49ers will be a lot better than the Championship game and are worthy favourites but, Flacco has shown he can handle the pressure over these last couple of weeks. I can see it being a tight game with these 2 defence's that can dominate their opponents. Advice on whether you should hedge? I think it just comes down to how you feel because there isn't a right or wrong answer any of us can give you. Very tough game to call. -
Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Got 16/1 for SF last April. not confident against Baltimore but wont be greening out as they are worthy favourites. SF are very physical as well so hoping they wont be bullied and put off their game by the Ravens.
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Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Will leave it for a weeks for any bigger ante post bets but had a little bet on San Fran and Detroit. Think SF will improve,most potential for me is Detroit, IMO can see them getting stronger,will be a force over the next few seasons. to be honest no idea of players coming in and out.
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Re: Synchronized / According To Pete
The fact of the matter is that they have made the fences supposedly easier to jump' date=' with the result that the field goes faster at the fences as opposed to being faced with obstacles that makes them take it slower.[/quote'] Yes i agree, Was it Ginger McCain who said the same thing a few years ago,not sure. To be fair to Aintree, i think the plan was to water to make the ground slower, Forecast rain never really came,so ground was too fast. sods law if they would of watered more and heavens would of opened that could have made the ground too testing. Don't think they will allow the ground to be so fast in future nationals .crazy situation trying to make the horses run slower in a horse race,faster you go the more chance of a mistake. It's ether that or take away the Aintree type of fences, wouldn't be the National then. -
Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012
Yeah,all see things different sometimes. Anyway he rode a nice race about an hour ago so he's back in my good books.lolAha! Now i know why your so argumentative, your a "bleedin" Dub! Lol.. I know what your saying Trips, but i thought the horse did it's full best, all about opinions. -
Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012
I've no problem with your opinion but don't preach about others opinions as shameful and a disgrace.to discourage any argument, It a bleedin horse race that's all.Don't be getting your little knickers in a twist, i am entitled to an opinion too you know. To be fair, JP was greedy. Synchronised had an extremely tough race in the Gold Cup, and to ask the horse to then go on and try win a 4m 4f slog, was in my opinion, GREED! -
Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012
It is disgraceful to blame the jockey in any way' date=' shape or form. You do realise horses tire, even when given the whip?[/quote'] Using words like,blaming any jockey in any way or shape or form is not an argument, I will criticise anything i feel is wrong. Of course i realise horses tire, again this is not an argument. both horses were tired the difference was Neptunes jockey got more from his horse in the last few strides. I find it more shameful and disgraceful to brand an owner as greedy for running his horse in the National,especially after that horse has died in the race, I am sure JP loved that horse, that is far more tragic. -
Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012 As i say he gave the horse a great ride till the last few yards. it's an opinion, Shameful and disrgaceful? We are talking about a jockey riding a race not a tragic incident,keep things in perspective. I have not changed my opinion.
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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012 Watched the closing stages with disbelief yesterday, bit angry with the riding of Sunnyhill boy, Jockey rode a great race till the last few yards. Not sour grapes but Neptunes Jockey never stopped using the whip, this won the race for him,If Sunny hill boys jockey had done the same i think he would have held on.
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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2012 Looking at the betting for National,14 horses under 20/1, May be my bad memory but can't remember seeing so many horse so low in price,would be leaving any bookmaker bets till the day of the race now for better SP, BOG and possible 6 places ew.
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Re: Aintree advice please To be honest if i was coming from Southport, i would get the train, very surprised you can't get a train direct to Aintree,Aintree station is only yards away from the course across the road. according to rail line you can get a train to Sandhills,then a train to Aintree.I would deffo go this way, trains run often and only minutes from Sandhills to Aintree. or maybe get a train to Waterloo and then a taxi, I havent been the National for years but i would expect traffic to be bad,trains every few minutes.why not go into Liverpool for a few drinks then get direct train home to Southport.Not sure if it's the Railway but ive walked passed a club on Melling road it's only a few minutes walk from the course on the right. EDIT, What day are you going, I heard Aintree have asked for the Liverpool v Everton semi final to have a late kick off,don't think it will happen, 12.45 kick off, so maybe best to go to the Railway club,don't expect any real trouble in town but will be very lively to say the least, big day for Liverpool, Grand National and 2 clubs playing FA semi final on the same day.town will be packed.
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Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012
Well that's a good start to the season. post my selection and it looks certain to be taken out of the race with an injury 3 days later:cryif theres an award for worst anti post selection i must be in the running:DOnly one flat bet up to now, 1000 guineas. Maybe a bit short considering she hasn't had a run this season. Gamilati has looked very impressive this season.has good course form ,not sure if Detori will ride but still doesn't put me off at 16/1 -
Re: Flat v Jumps?
trips' date=' fair point, but royal hunt cup etc is a race ifoten have one earmarked for so come the day before, i may have backed it ante post and have to wait for the draw or even if i back it on the day, i have to see if it gets a decent draw or not, can be frustrating[/quote'] Yeah your right Bowles,when it comes to Anti post bets,draw is part of the Hazzards, Something ive never given much thought too but i do far more Anti posts bets on NH. but it does cross my mind when thinking of Flat anti posts in large fields and i wait till closer to the day, by then might as well back on the day most of the time. -
Re: Flat v Jumps?
what about the blasted draw ?? you really fancy one and its drawn on the wrong side' date=' hardly exciting for the punter, so already its a negative to overcome a bad draw, even some races over 2m havea draw advantage[/quote'] Yeah but you do know the problem before you choose to bet so just one of many things to consider before making a selection. -
Re: Flat v Jumps? I enjoy Royal Ascot but nowhere near as much as Cheltenham or even Aintree, So it has to be the jumps for me. strangely i probably have better gambling record on the flat , I put this down to horses in form turning out quicker and not being affected by last race, so IMO form can be more reliable on the flat as long as you follow recent form. also flat is less hazardous,OK things happen far quicker and you need gaps but far more things happen regularly during a jumps race to ruin the chances of your selection.
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Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Only one flat bet up to now, 1000 guineas. Maybe a bit short considering she hasn't had a run this season. Gamilati has looked very impressive this season.has good course form ,not sure if Detori will ride but still doesn't put me off at 16/1
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Re: Back on the Nags
Everyone has there own set of rules and criteria for selections so just my opinion i assume you have included going .for me any form over 3-4 weeks can't be trusted, except of course top class races or horses who have shown they can win after breaks. another is never back any horse as a banker that has fell last time out, you just don't know the intentions of trainer + the fall may affect horses confidence. beat higher rated horse may be down to weights, i would look at the class of races and how strong was the race. AW course form is important this is the difference for me of not having a bet and a strong fancy. i take the view that there are no hypothetical certs , they have had to run well over course and distance in the past. so is going on AW.look out for slow going,it's a real grind to the line surprising what good prices you get for horses who seem to have very good slow going form.you can also dissmiss the same form when going gets back to standard. After making a selection i still try and figure what price i hope i can get, based on possible dangers and class, if it's below that price then obviously no bet. Value is so important. good luckWhere running well before falling or unseating rider - Beat home higher rated horses -
Re: Gambling Addiction and Me
Do you mean Shops or online, deffo online has exploded over the last 10 yrs. ive heard many shops are surviving on Fruit machines. I rarely ever go in a betting shop nowadays but on the odd occasion i drop in to watch a race in town, hardly anybody in, I remember the days when you had to lean over people to try and read the form for the next race:Dbookies have never had it so good. -
Re: Gambling Addiction and Me
yes i agree many will continue to gamble and that may need another approach but maybe and i am certainly no expert on Fruit machine addicts, it may loose the excitement for young people drawn into fruit machines in the future.maybe wont solve the problem for all addicts now but will hopefully reduce future addicts.Reducing the flashing lights / noise isn't going to solve the problem , they will still gamble. -
Re: Gambling Addiction and Me
It is hard to find the right balance.protecting addicts from fruit machines without stopping someone who just want's the odd little innocent flutter. one thing they could do is pass laws to make the machines less attractive, cut down on the flashing lights and noise, take away a lot of the excitement, i wonder if there was a serious problem with addiction with the old style 3 cherry machines.no machines exploding as if they have hit the jackpot after even the smallest of wins.Agree . Think it was aimed at non gamblers , it made it easier for them to understand the problems of addicts. -
Re: Synchronised ~ Would you run him in the National?
I couldn't remember that one erhab, see it was in 95. i can't think of another GG winner since Alverton died to run in the National. surely must be many winners at Cheltenham meeting who have gone on to win National the same year. West tip is another.The last Gold Cup winner I backed in this race was Master Oats back in the early 90s and he was only beaten about a dozen lengths -
Re: Synchronised ~ Would you run him in the National? No,If i owned Synchronised a GG winner i wouldn't risk him in the National having said that if i thought the GG was well below par this year and expected not to do as well next year then i might run him in National and strike while the irons hot. Sorry Bill, But you have to bring,will he win the race into the equation.in fact that would be my number 1 consideration, can he win if he races. Have i a horse better suited to the National who i expect to run a better race would be another consideration. I was at Aintree when Alverton the GG winner had the horrific fatal fall, i may be wrong but i don't think a GG winner has run in the National since, nobody will take the chance.so i would completely understand if Synchronised never ran in National even if they think he has a winning chance and the course is far easier than in the past.
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Re: Gambling Addiction and Me Expected a lot better from this programme.very sad stories and something should be done about Fruit machines but nothing new on the programme,nothing to say to the addicts to help them or any new ideas to approach the problem.
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Re: Gambling Addiction and Me
i agree, i have absolutely no interest in Fruit machines,never have done. Best book i ever read on the subject was the Psychology of gambling. this was well over 20 yrs ago so may be out of print but it explained the different types of gamblers and why they do it far better than any book or programme i have seen since. Personally when it comes to gambling i will not bet a penny on something i can't have an opinion on.simple rule but it rules out all the addictive mug ways to loose your money.I hope the program discusses the subject sensibly - they very rarely do. They are a major reason that, 'gambling' is seen as a mugs game rather than a Leisure pursuit, a profitable sideline or a legitimate way to make a living... Suspect it will focus around fruit machines.... I really do not understand this addiction but my deepest sympathies to those that suffer with it. Wouldn't even spend a pound on these wretched things...
My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl
in NFL Predictions
Posted
Re: My Pick to win the 2012 Superbowl Sorry Agurv thought you had backed SF. Well the spread has dropped from 4 to 3.5 in just one day,ive noticed general prices offered for SF have gone out as well, so you would think Ravens price will be smaller in a few days.maybe better to leave it day or so and lay at a smaller price.i assume the big money will come for SF next week and maybe the Ravens price will drift a bit then. I don't think SF are certs but fancy them far more today after watching a few things in the highlights of the weekend games. the only concern i have is how they contain Flaco, cant see them blitzing that much and the Ravens will love it if they just rush 4. i suppose they will adjust if secondary cant cope.