trips
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Posts posted by trips
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
Yes, i would agree,I think I would assume a horse was just having a prep race myself, unless press reports gave the trainers intention to protect his rating. Cant see what information can be gained, I don't think i would be too bothered if the horse was well beaten either as i would assume the whole exercise was to get a race into the horse before the National. Still all boils down to his chase form and whatever else we use to select a horse for a particular race.It's not a trend I would definitely use to be honest. If it was apparent that a horses mark has been protected then it is worth taking note of but I wouldnt ignore a horse that hadnt run over hurdles. I think there are other ways of judging if a horse is well treated and/or fit enough. -
Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
I agree but wonder if everythings ok with Across the Bay, have no idea what was going on the other night when his price shot out to 200/1 on Betfair.Across The Bay and Ballabriggs (EW only) both look very solid bets to me as well. -
Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
It may be official policy to water to get Good to soft ground from now on but Aintree made a statement like this in 2009, it was very nice weather the week leading up to that years national,certain to be good ground, I had backed Comply or Die knowing he would have no problems handling the good ground. Aintree issued a statement around Wednesday saying they are watering every night after racing to get the ground good to soft for safety reasons, I was not happy with this but understood the logic, Mon Mome caused a shock that year, outstaying Comply or die for a shock win, i think if the ground was left alone to remain good then Comply or Die would have won that year. Good idea to announce it's policy though at least people know how they stand well before the race itself.Aintree bans firm ground for the Grand National Aintree has run its last fast-ground Grand National. Starting from this year’s race, on April 6, the course will be watered as a matter of routine to provide going that is never any quicker than 'good to soft’.
Record breakers: the course record set by Mr Frisk (Marcus Armytage, left) in 1990 is now unlikely to be broken Photo: ALLSPORT
By HOTSPUR (JA McGrath)
10:00PM GMT 20 Mar 2013
Comment
In the most significant move yet to minimise the risk to horses and riders, the Aintree executive is effectively reshaping the race to fit modern requirements, at the same time trying to retain the character of jump racing’s ultimate challenge.
There will never be a repeat of Mr Frisk’s 1990 triumph when, on ground officially termed 'firm’, the Kim Bailey-trained gelding set a record time of 8min 47.8sec.
Lord Daresbury, the chairman of Aintree, said that a commissioned statistical report had supported the intuition that there was a direct link between injury to horses and the state of the ground. The quicker the ground, the faster the pace, which led to a greater risk of injury in the event of a fall.
“We looked closely at all the statistics, and in discussion with trainers, we came more and more to the conclusion that ensuring ground that was always on the soft side of 'good’ was the right thing to do,” he said.
Before Mr Frisk, the 'firm’ going winners over the previous five decades were Lucius (1978), Rag Trade (1976), Red Rum (1973) and Nicolaus Silver (1961).
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Twelve of the 22 winners since Mr Frisk were successful on ground described as 'good’. In future, there will be no winners on that type of surface. Lord Daresbury was aware of possible criticism, particularly from owners and trainers of horses with a preference for fast ground. “There have been contrary individual voices from that direction,” he confirmed. “But when reality and logic starts sinking in, it should be different. Everybody is doing everything possible for the success of the Grand National, and I think most involved are taking more responsibility themselves for the race. There have been some critics who have said we are lowering the fences, but that is not the case.” While they have not cut the size of the jumps, officials have introduced a softer core to the fences, with a view to lowering the risk of injury to horses who might plough through them. The revelation regarding the future watering policy is the most significant piece of news regarding the future of the big race. Changes to the course, at Becher’s and elsewhere, the reduction in distance of the run to the first fence, and calls for fewer runners, all amount to cosmetic alterations. However, a policy to ensure that the going is always on the soft side is a positive step that should be applauded. In the long term, it will subtly change the profile of a would-be Grand National horse. However, it might also ensure the casualty rate is lowered and the future of the race guaranteed.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th It's amazing how much rain Aintree seems to take, i remember backing a horse called Bonanza Boy to win the race many years ago, ultimate mud lark, the week leading up to the race it hammered it down every day, more it rained the more i backed him,as far as i remember others must have been thinking the same as his price crashed into favourite, it rained that bad i was certain it would he would get the heavy ground he needed, sick when it was announced soft. had a lot of money on ew,of course he was run off his feet and even though he made up a lot of ground he finished 5th. those days you only ever got first 4. I am always very wary to assume the going will be testing at Aintree, As far as this years race goes,ideally they want it Good to Soft for safety reasons and if it does dry out IMO they will water. they don't like it good as horses go off into the first couple of fences at break neck speed.,so to be honest i would not back a good ground horse anti post for the National as Aintree will ideally try to keep it good to soft.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
Bizarre scenes on betfair last night with Across the Bay' date=' drifted to prices in the region of 200/1+. Clearly i panicked and layed off as much as I could thinking he was out. I wake up this morning and he is available to back at 48.0 again. Who on earth was laying him at 200.0??? Its ruined my exposure to him on my National thread. I shouldn't get sucked in my market movements really but the drift last night seemed pretty conclusive.[/quote'] Yes ,i went to bed and it was 110/1,backed it myself and thought ,well that's out the race,hope am wrong. -
Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th I wish the racing sites or the online bookies would give you info on double engaged horses on the form sites,more so with Cheltenham, the bookies have the 1st and 2nd favs priced up in the Topham yet it looks certain both will go for the National.
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Re: Grand National Meeting Media Guide Thanks,nice read
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Re: March 31st 1973, 40 years ago this Sunday, AINTREE. Watched Red Rum win the following year but never backed him in fact every time i backed him he finished 2nd,one year i backed him the bugger got withdrawn the night before.i was there when Rag Trade shot past him on the run in when i was celebrating the win lol. i appreciate Red Rum was a one off and a big public favourite,personally my favourite was Aldaniti, i was a bit skint the week before his national and thought i had no chance of going, the Saturday before the race i had one of those days, put a few bets on ,no accumulators,just a little double and a few forecasts, got a few bob back from them,went and cashed the bets and had a look at the form for the next race , i still remember the horse today, Black Rod ridden by John Francombe, thought to myself this has a great chance. couldn't believe the price,right lets go for it and put the lot on at 10/1 cantered in, cashed my bet and thought Aintree here we come, knew the horse i fancied for the National so had a few bob on Aldaniti at 16/1 and put the rest in my pocket for Aintree, screamed Aldaniti home all the way up the straight, incredible atmosphere that day.
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Re: THE GRAND NATIONAL 2013 April 6th
Yeah, i keep coming back to On his Own as well. ideal horse to back now,will go on any going.but as you say all the value has gone.you would think it can't get any smaller than 6/1 or 7/1 and on the day the market always changes dramatically, you can also get first 6 ew as well. i will leave it to the day of the race if i can get 9/1 which occasionally happens as anti post fav drift on the day i will get on,if it stays around 7/1 then i think i will leave it. I can't believe Across the Bay is 40/1 and had an ew first 5. also like Sunny hill boy as well but not even sure if it will line up so i will leave that one closer to the day as well.I'm in that nasty situation where I'm a massive fan of On His Own (see 2012) but how can I justify backing him at 7s?! Impossible really for all I think he's near enough as bombproof as you can get around here (only missing ingredient for me is he hasn't completed over these fences before). Okay he's only won over 3m1f in the past but to the eye he stays all day and was running a stormer here last year. The way he moved through the field was impressive having not warmed to his task in the very early stages. An unexpected Graded victory over hurdles as a prep and represents Mullins and Walsh. I guess I'm going to have to look elsewhere for some value but he's definitely the most likely winner in my eyes. To say he was only 8 last year too. In hindsight should have taken 12s when I could but even that's a bit short for me in this race. I might just have a small bet on him if I can get 8/1 and have another in the field just so I'm not gutted if he wins! -
Re: Aintree Weather Watch, 2013. The weather has been sunny and dry the last couple of days at Aintree, the forecast is dry weather for the next 10 days,but we know what forecasts are like, i assume the ground is very soft now with the snow thawing but lots of time to dry out and Aintree does drain well. The modern attitude is to ideally keep the ground good to soft for safety, so even if the ground did dry right out i could see Aintree watering if necessary.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....
Agree 100%, I was thinking :clap at the time for Conti,I think they did try to kick away and it took it's toll very quickly, they were suffering as you say at the 2nd last, the surprise is how did they still manage to give Bobsoworth a race up the hill after being under so much pressure for so long.?Don't forget that long run had to force the pace so left little in the tank after the 2nd last Had there been a confirmed front runner things may have been different perhaps ?? Not saying LR would have won -
Re: Cheltenham 2014.... Have a look at the replay.Conti was going very comfortable with 4 fences to go, the leaders tried to kick on at the 4th last but Conti had no problem making 3 lengths in a few strides and ready to pounce , 7 min, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3q6tWuMokk The leaders cam under pressure jumping the 2nd last giving Bobsworth the chance to get back into the race very quickly into the last, Conti would not of been under pressure 2 out, i think he would of galloped clear without even pressing the button as the leaders came under pressure very quickly, that would of been the obvious tactics if the horse was going so well, he would not have needed to much to get him up the hill, Bobsworth never flew up the hill ,he battled past beaten horse who also gamely gave there all,a war of attrition,the question is would Bobsworth have made up a lot of ground even if Conti had folded up the hill, i doubt it. I do not acccept Conti would have folded up the hill but we all know we will never know, so it cant be proven either way.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....
Conti was 9/4 in-running when he fell' date=' and there is no way he would have been out of the first 3 if he had stayed on his feet.[/quote'] I think that's about right, 9/4 with 5 or 6 runners left in with a chance if not a bit generous, .Credit to Bobs Worth for a gutsy performance but it was not all down to him staying on up the hill, the 3 other runners were stopping before the last giving him a chance to battle back, We will never know but IMO i think Conti was going so well he would have been clear over the last giving Bobsworth too much ground to make up if he did have problems getting up the hill. i could not take 7/2 for Bobsworth for next years race when Conti is priced at 9/1 -
Re: Cheltenham 2014....
I will email ATR to see if they can find out Silvianco Contis Betfair in running price coming to the 2nd last,, what price do you think it was,?1.000.000 / 1. I He was going better than any of them and the in running price would also have reflected his chances of beating the other 3 up the hill, I would be very surprised if he wasn't the in running fav before he fell. I dont think there is any hype over Sivianco Conti for the future if anything the hype is for Bobs worth.Silv Conti, would have finished 4th if he had stood up, could never have beaten the front 3 up the hill, Not in a million, The bookies and press will tout Silv Conti through out the year....Ill tell you all this, I bet he dont go for the ARGENTO!, -
Re: Cheltenham up or down? Yeah i agree Aidy you have to be selective with your main bets otherwise you will have to be very lucky to win at Cheltenham,just too many races. Thought Hollywell was a excellent EW bet but put off my price drifting on Betfair and Mccoy riding another horse, so had a little ew bet on it, mixed feelings when it cantered in, had a decent anti post bet months ago at evens on Sprinte Sacre,also had him in a double with Silvianaco Conti at 7/1,convinced he would have won if staying up, wonder what price he was in running on Betfair before he fell, cant complain though had a 2 lucky winners destined for 2nd or 3rd place who sneaked in because of horses falling . broke even first day, won the other days so my best Cheltenham ever and ive backed in many Cheltenhams.
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Re: Cheltenham 2014....
Looks like the bookies agree with you, to be honest i thought Silvianaco Conti was going like the winner when falling, who knows what would have happened, i would rather have Conti at 10s than Bobs Worth at 9/2 myself.I think Bob's Worth is the most solid of any ante-post bets for next year -
Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013
Couldnt agree more i was thinking the same, very professional coverage. never keen on C4 taking the festival as it's been a bit of a circus in the past.excellent this year.Thought the Channel 4 coverage was the best they have ever done at the festival too. -
Re: cheltenham chat thread 2013 Best ever Cheltenham for me, icing on the cake would have been Conti but cant complain had 2 fortunate winners with back in focus and Salsify.
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Re: Landed a Yankee & Corals doing my head in Very rare I support the bookies but to be fair, they offered a too good to miss bet for days and we all knew they would be hammered,good on them for keeping the offer open so long, I have only just been able to get into my account but no problems ive been paid. Rarely use Corals in the past but they seem to be trying to be a bit more competative lately.
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Re: Wednesday 1:30: John Oaksey National Hunt Chase I wonder if it's worth taking a price for Godsmejudge now, gonna be a lot of money for it tomorrow with the Pope elections going on.:D
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Re: Tuesday 1:30: William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle No excuses for MTOY, suberb ride by Walsh won the race.
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Re: GOOD Ground Anticipated For Opening Day of Cheltenham. ATR mentioned the course is now soft,the covers will prevent the ground from drying out so highly unlikely it will be good ground, will stay soft
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Re: Superbowl XLVII
i agree, I was looking at Davis for the MVP,think he has the speed to destroy Ravens CB Graham,but as you say problem is he is a TE, ive backed Crabtree for MVP for this reason but i think Davis would exploit Graham better.5pts Under 47.5pts 19/20 BetVictor These are two of the best defences going around the game today and both D’s are going to scrap for everything in this game. The game itself could go either way and one special play down the stretch will decide it but when it comes to betting on the big game the best bet has to be under 47.5pts. These are two mean defences and both sides have young quarterbacks in the game of their lives. I think we’ll see a real tight beginning to the game before it opens up in the second half but I don’t see there being 48pts or more, or even close to it. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/superbowl-betting-don-t-expect-to-see-many-points-in-what-is-likely-to-be-a-defensive-battle-throughout -
Re: Superbowl XLVII So many ways this game can go for me, i expect the Ravens to throw a lot more than expected,the reason being i don't think they will be able to run as well against SF.if that's the case they will have no choice. The only way i can describe the Ravens is bully boys. they destroyed New Englands will last week with the crunch hits, thought they had done serious damage to one player and they are rejoicing over the turnover. we will see but i cant see them intimidating SF like they have previous opponents,having said that SF are a young team i hope they can just play the game and forget the hits.CK will be very selective with his runs but he will make critical runs,it's just part of his game. i hope SF don't over pursue Flaco ,he loves to drop back looking vunerable,players rush to sack him and he throws the ball over the top to the unmarked players.i am sure this will happen just hope it;s not to many times or to costly.. lets hope it's not the tight low scoring game most predict.
Thur. 2.30: Betfred Bowl Chase 3m1f
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Thur. 2.30: Betfred Bowl Chase 3m1f Ive backed SC for next years gold cup but won't have a penny on him today for a few reasons, evens is too short for such a class race,can never be sure how he will run after a fall,the priority of the trainer must be to get his confidence back so as long as he runs a decent race i will be happy. then there is the Cheltenham to Aintree factor. tuned to the minute for the GC and expected to be on song 3 weeks later, that may be the case and he will canter in.just too many ifs for evens.