Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Post new thread problems It does time out yes. Do it in Word and then paste in as text
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Re: Paddy Power removed best odds guarantee, bonuses & other concessions - anyone els Joe, I agree with you on the singles, that's all I bet in. Only do each way on 16+ runner handicaps. It's not that easy for me to hit them hard though as my bets were often limited by them to win a couple of hundred. I just don't understand their reasoning. Does anyone? For example, my account with them since it opened is down about £1k so it's not profitable. For this reason, I was always confused with the limiting of stakes and just assumed it was based on the level of their book but I'm completely mistified as to why they now want to remove BOG as well. As an example, my account with Stan James is thousands ahead and yet there's no limits imposed, not even a limiting of stakes. Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral and Hills are also ok yet I've heard of others who struggle with some of them. I bet the same with SJ as I did with PP, taking price when they offer best odds. If I could understand the traders rationale I could work around it. Does anyone know how they make their decisions?
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Re: Paddy Power removed best odds guarantee, bonuses & other concessions - anyone els I did BH yes. I suspect I know the reasons for the removal and silly limits with Boylesports and have written them off as a waste of time years ago. With Bet Victor I'm not sure why they removed BOG but they do still lay me a decent bet and I haven't had any limits imposed (yet). Betfred are also in my waste of space category as I get BOG but it's useless as I rarely get a bet accepted in full (usually limited to a return of £100 maximum). I was just surprised really that Paddy Power also took this course of action as I don't bet often or big with them and wanted to know if it was just me or whether they're having a general clamp down.
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Re: Maidens Nice one & great reasoning too
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Paddy Power have now joined Bet Victor and Boylesports in removing the Best Odds Guarantee from my account. Has this happened to anyone else recently with their Paddy Power account or is it just me? Having stake less than £300 with them in the last three months, losing just under £50, I found it quite a surprise to say the least. Needless to say I got the usual answer..... It was a trading team decision, we don't know the reason why and the decision is final. Just be aware that if you currently bet with them (or plan to) this may happen to you too, if it hasn't already. Great customer service Paddy!
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Re: best price bookmakers A quick tip. When recording your bets put the win return in based on the actual odds taken and the amount you get from BOG separate, adding the two to get your P&L. Same with bonus, free bets, etc. That way your ROI will be a figure that's sustainable as there's a risk they will remove the BOG from you at some point.
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Re: Maidens Agree, should be interesting. I find it hard to dig out much of an edge in this type of race as the market moves are often more informative than the form book. Good luck with it :ok
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Re: The state of being in equilibrium Nice winner, confirmed he was well handicapped and stayed on well. Nice to see it has put you back in profit too.
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Thanks for the comments guys. I’m glad you found it useful. I won’t be continuing in the same way though, if at all. As I’m sure you appreciate, it’s difficult to find enough time to fit in the form study between work and family commitments. With the selections having to go on before racing it adds additional time pressure and I’ve found myself rushing to complete a card just so I can post up on here which is madness given the lack of response. What I may do is turn it into a more reflective post as I can type that up when I have spare time (like now) but only if that would be useful and interesting to people? I know it’s considered after timing to some but it will make me spend more time looking back at my decisions, which is something I probably neglect. That way the thread will add some value to me even if only a handful of others find it useful. I’ve done this below for the first three races at yesterday’s meeting at Goodwood. Let me know what you think. I won’t be offended if you say it’s of no value as I’d rather you point that out now and not a few weeks down the line! Goodwood 3rd August 2.20 The once raced Wizara was a couple of pounds clear on ratings and that meant she’d probably start favourite having looked as though it was a lack of race fitness that caused her to fade in a race run in a good time. Also once raced was Martian who’d shown plenty of promise when finishing well in a Doncaster maiden and looked sure to improve. He’d already been gelded though so was probably not considered to be above average. The other one I considered was Nickels and Dimes who was well ahead of these on last season’s runs on a softer surface but who’d disappointed this year over 12f appearing not to stay (firm) and again back at 8f when one paced (good). The 10f of this race may therefore be ideal but with good to firm ground forecast I considered it unlikely that she’d be improving on what she’d achieved to date. In the end it was difficult to look beyond the front two who I priced at 11-4 joint for a bet. I fully expected Martian to be 2nd favourite and the one that I’d be backing but in the morning market it was the other way around at 7-4 and 9-4. With both being under the target price no business was done. I checked prices just before the off to find Wizara at 11-4 and stepped in for a 28 point bet at that price only to see her show no improvement and struggle to find a change of gear, finishing in midfield. Martian battled on well and showed improvement to win from Nickels and Dimes who also probably improved a little for racing at 10f. 2.55 This race revolved around top rated Tinga who’d gone close in a 7f Maiden and run respectably in better company too. By Galileo and with stamina on the dams side she looked as though this step up to 1m might bring about further improvement. Her main market rival was likely to be Tea In Transvaal who was a little more speedily bred being by 2yo 7f winner Teofilo and a dam who was a 2yo 5.5f winner. That one had improved when stepped back from 7f to 6f on her second start and despite looking as though a step back up to 7f would bring about more improvement I was concerned that 1m may be slightly too far. Or, would this sharp track mean that she’d have too much speed for them? I wasn’t sure but at 7-4 and 9-4 (about 4-7 the pair) I was certain that neither was value. Of the others, the once raced pair Arabian Comet and Uchenna looked to have sufficient scope to get involved and the newcomer Criteria from a powerful yard also looked the part on paper. I don’t back unraced ones as I’m not privy to inside information so that just left the two to concentrate on. The main question was whether they had sufficient scope to improve enough to trouble the front pair given they were rated about 2 stone inferior to the market leaders. As Arabian Comet had started at 3-1 on her debut I assumed that more had been expected of her. Add to that the mediocre subsequent performances from those that finished around her and she was discounted. That left Uchenna who started at 50-1 and wasn’t given a hard time on her debut. By Fastnet Rock she was slightly speedier bred than some of these but was clearly expected to get 1m based on an entry in the Fillies’ Mile. She had scope and I priced her up at around 8-1 for a bet. She was supported in the morning market though from 15-2 into around 11-2 which meant I let her run. This was a case of the market moves being correct (which they often are in these maiden races) as Tea In Transvaal almost clung on to her lead but was just headed by the stronger travelling and finishing Uchenna. Tinga was disappointing, not improving for the step up in trip. I find it difficult to find value bets in these type of races as quite often a lack of market support leads to a disappointing run and, as in the case of Uchenna, strong support often precedes an improved performance. Maybe, once I’ve identified the likely improveres I need to follow the money a little more often in this type of race? That’s something for me to consider I think. 3.30 The were two that looked as though they had scope to improve in this and both were at the head of the market. The step up to 7f looked sure to suit Wahaab who in addition to being very well bred had also won at this unique track. He was thought good enough to tackle to Coventry stakes on only his second start and showed plenty of pace there although he was ultimately outclassed. He’d been off the track (over two months) since then and I was concerned that there may have been a problem, especially given his yard (Hannon) being one that tends to run them quite frequently when they’re right. He was rated a couple of pounds off the top and I felt there was some doubts. His main rival was Lyn Valley who looked sure to relish this step back up in trip to 7f and had run well at the track before. The doubt here was that he actually looked as though a sharp 7f may not quite be enough of a test (by Shamardal and a dam that stayed 10f). He was top rated though and it did look (based on the ratings of previous winners) that this was a sub-standard renewal so any improvement (and he would surely find some upped in trip) would probably be enough for him to go close. I priced Wahaab at 9-4 with Lyn Valley at 5-2 and given the latter was available at 11-4 in the morning that was the one I backed to 28 points. In the race Wahaab gave himself no chance of getting home by going off too strongly on the way to post and in the race itself. That should have taken some of the fizz out of him and he may go better next time, although it’s worth noting that he’s gone off strongly before and will probably need to learn to settle before he’s going to improve. Maybe that’s why he’s been off for a while? Maybe a return to 6f would be the answer? Anyhow, Lyn Valley travelled well and stayed on strongly to just edge it from Rosso Corsa who seemed to confirm his apparent improvement in the Vintage Stakes (also at this track). I’d want to see the winner at a stiffer track next time or even at 1m whereas the runner up may just be opposable away from this venue if a short price next time. Any use or a waste of time?
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Re: Kithanga's search for value The misunderstanding I had with someone on another thread has been sorted now. I was naffed off with that this morning and then came on here to see what people had replied to my question about the big race on Sunday. Nothing, as usual. It'd be really good to have generated some feedback, discussion, anything really but there's nothing. Hence my comment this morning. I did save half an hour of typing up selections though so not all was lost. There'll be no further updates to the thread.
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Re: £20 a week challenge :ok I'd carry on the way you are, it's working well
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Re: Kithanga's search for value I logged on to put today's Goodwood bets up but got sidetracked responding to another thread in here and I really can't be arsed now.
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Re: £20 a week challenge Ross, I seem to have (unintentionally) struck a nerve. I was trying to get some conversation going which seems hard to do at times on these forums. The question was about the concept & thinking behind sticking to a weekly amount, not about the amount itself. I was interested to understand more, that's all. The thread is good and the ROI is exceptional and I said as much. I now understand your reasoning but will keep from asking anything further. K
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Re: £20 a week challenge Fab thread Ross and excellent profits, the obvious question is why limit yourself to £20 a week? That ROI is to die for! p.s. That question's not clear having re-read it. What I meant was, if you have a bad start to the week aren't you limiting yourself to smaller stakes on horses you may consider to be better bets? What happens if you fancy one and have run out of cash? Just wondering what the logic for sticking to £20 was.
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Re: The state of being in equilibrium
Nicely in profit now :clapPilates 17.30 Brighton 3 Pt Win @ 2.75 (BOG) Shamardal filly from family of smart sprinter Splice. Steady progress in maidens, and made breakthrough in handicaps at second attempt at Bath (1m) last time. Still unexposed, and leading claims here. -
Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Keep going, I had 40 on the trot towards the end of May running well into June. Still ended the month ahead though as things turned round significantly in the last week and it's been steadily upwards since.
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Re: Kithanga's search for value It was always going to be a negative sort of day if the main bet disappointed and I think she did, not just in losing, but in the way she raced. She looked green under pressure even before receiving a hefty bump from Kiyoshi and didn't pick up well enough when in the clear. Perhaps the interference was more costly than it looked but for me it was her inexperience and that cost her the race. Rizeena quickened nicely and I underestimated that one's chance. What do others think? It's been a fair weekend, still pretty much plodding along at the moment though. Stake: 809 Return: 1,045.35 P&L: +236.35
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Re: Peacock's Placepots Good luck with this, should be interesting to follow to see if the theory that it's a bad % bet holds true. I've often thought it can offer good opportunities to small stakes
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Re: Kithanga's search for value One additional selection I've backed is in the 4.15 the Moyglare Stud Stakes a fascinating Group 1 over 7f. Kiyoshi has been off since a solid performance to win the Albany over 6f on very fast ground at Ascot. The post race plans for this one have changed and she has an absence of over 10 weeks to overcome. She'll need to have continued to improve and develop to match that performance (which the trainer states she has) so at around 2-1 she makes no appeal to me. This time I think pricewise may have done me a favour as I really don't think Rizeena improved as much as I'd have expected when stepped up from 5f to 6f and that makes me wonder how much more improvement there is to come for the further step up to 7f. She's shortened though and that's had the desired effect on the price of Tapestry who was impressive when winning a Group 2 over CD last time. This daughter of Rumplestiltskin is extremely well bred and entered up. She's come to the racecourse much later than the other two so isn't as exposed after just two runs and I think she'll be much too good in this. I've taken the generous 2-1 to 35 points
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Very poor racing in Britain today. I just can't understand why they have such poor quality racing on a day when many more punters have the time to get involved. The racing authorities aren't that daft in Ireland though and there's a quality card at the Curragh this afternoon. It's more of a card to watch than go in heavy on though as there are quite a few short ones that don't really look opposable so I'm treading carefully. 3.10 A tight handicap where I concentrated on Truthwillsetufree, Kerisa, Drifting Mist, Sheilas Wish and Kims Dream. I have some doubts over the trip for the first named but she has attracted support. However, that means she's below my target price. I think Kerisa's win after a break was a decent effort at Sligo last time where she held off the stronger finishing Drifting Mist who improved significantly. She was fancied when running a bit below par here the time before in good to firm. Was it the ground or was there some other reason for that slight reversal? The Sligo race was very strongly run and the pace collapsed up the hill so although it was a decent run there's a chance that both Kerisa and Drifting Mist may have been flattered by the result. Sheilas Wish hit form at this same time last year and held it for four runs (all on softish ground). To my mind she has it to prove racing on good to firm but I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Kims Dream has been progressive in lower grade since moving to a new yard this year and she may have scope for more. Overall a tricky contest in which Kerisa (7-1), Sheilas Wish (8-1) and Kims Dream (7-1) were all above my target price. I decided not to go for all three given how close the race is and to limit my investment to 12 points on Kims Dream at 7-1. She was later available at 8-1 meaning I was cursing my impatience early on. That's gone now though as has some of the 7's. I really do hate pricewise of the Racing Post as he consistently directs punters onto the sort of horses I want to back as does that Hugh Taylor bloke on ATR. On days like today were I've only just finished at around midday that means that one or more of the ones I'm interested in has been backed well below my price target. That's happened today as in the 4.45 I had Tobann, Dance And Dance, Regulation, Karamaya, Abbey Vale and Golden Shoe on my shortlist. I wanted 12's or better Tobann and Karamaya and was gutted to see 14's was available early on about the former who was Tom Segal's choice. Of course that's gone and he's now a best priced 10-1 shot. I really fancied her stepping up in trip here. However, I also liked the way Regulation finished off his race here last time coming from well back to be beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Better drawn today and running for a yard that's won this twice in the last ten years he could go close and was (and still is) over priced at 22-1. I've taken 2.5 points each way. One more possible selection later but I need it to drift just a little more
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Just the one winner and three third's from four bets. Although I didn't back her, My Painter looked one to follow in the 4.40 as she was badly bumped at the start, had a poor run through and still finished strongly. The highlight was the winner in the first race and although I posted it originally as a 5p rule, Coral didn't apply that on my bet. I'm not sure why, was it a mostake? Or perhaps it's some sort of concession. Either way, I'm not complaining. Stake: 757 Return: 1,026.60 P&L: +269.60
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Re: Kithanga's search for value There's little chance of me getting the prices required in the 4.05 or 4.40 but after the non runner in the 5.10 I've taken 3-1 (25 points) on Sharaarah
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Chester races today and I have a bit of a challenge getting bets on the later races. With a good day out in store at a friends house out in the wilderness later this afternoon I won't be near a laptop or a mobile phone signal so will probably have to either make a decision before 4pm or leave unmatched bets at the prices I want on the exchanges. Anyway, onto the races. In the 2.20 I was interested in the obvious ones, New Fforest (too short given stiffer task), Doctor Parkes (too short given preference for slightly fast ground), Smart Daisy K (about right at 11-2 given the stiffer task and draw in stall 7). The other one that caught my eye and looks well handicapped is El Viento who I backed at 8-1 (5p rule 4) to 11 points. I'm willing to forgive a poor run on the wrong side at Ripon last time as the ground appeared a lot slower. He's also thrown in the odd bad run in the past only to bounce back next time. He looks well handicapped, is in the right class here and has both a nice draw and a decent 5lb claimer on board. 2.55 Several have a chance in this notably Es Que Love, Brae Hill & Alejandro. There are others not too far behind but I do think the draw will play a big part given the running styles so have plumped for the first named given his consistent profile, liking for racing prominently and good draw in stall 2. I want to see him settled just behind the lead and pounce in the straight. I took 8-1 early doors to 11 points. 3.30 Lots with chances in this but I'm willing to give Handsome Man another chance to confirm his running in the Northumberland Plate to be all wrong. He's been dropped a pound for that whereas many of the others are racing off career high marks. Fallon is on board so he's got the very best assistance from the saddle and I think there's still improvement to come. He was also backed at 8-1 with 11 points. 4.05 I'll be out of radio contact by this time so I'm going to leave this alone as Lilbourne Lass (7-4 or better would be good) and Blockade (3-1 or better would be good) are both priced about right imo at 5-4 and 5-2. 4.40 My Painter is the selection in this to improve on her good 4th in a fillies maiden first time up. That experience should count for plenty against the newcomer Sherston and Edge who returns from a break after disappointing on very fast ground. There's a lot to be taken on trust though in these races and she is up against the boys this time so around 9-4 or above would interest me. She's currently 15-8 so I'll have to keep a watch on her price through the day and make a decision later. 5.10 Sharaarah is the one in form and likely to be suited by both the draw and the conditions in this having stayed on well to win over a sharp 5f at Musselburgh on her latest start. It's reasonably close though as these handicaps often are with Top Boy one that caught my eye coming back from a break after disappointing on very fast ground last time. A good draw in stall 4 will help and he's been supported all morning adding to the feeling that he'll pose a big threat. Space Artist who's very well drawn in stall 1 is also attracting support after two dismal runs and a break so around 7-2 seems fair. Unfortunately she's a best priced 10-3 at the moment so is another one to keep an eye on through the day. The 5.40 is exceptionally close and nothing stood out for me. So, three confirmed bets and another three races with possibilities. I've provided the prices I'd be interested in for anyone who follows but will only count them on the thread if I post back later pre-race.
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Re: Do you have your own betting rules? Yes, simple rules really but they do help with the discipline. I only bet on horses but I look for those that I think may be at the top of their form or likely to improve and then price them up. I only back those that give me at least 20% margin of safety above that price. I must say though that it's easier said than done and takes a lot of courage some times either to leave alone when slightly below a price or to plough in when significantly above. I find differential staking (based on odds percentages) helps with the latter as you are at least paying some attention to the market (which is a very efficient pricing mechanism)
Paddy Power removed best odds guarantee, bonuses & other concessions - anyone else?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Paddy Power removed best odds guarantee, bonuses & other concessions - anyone els Corky, I only tend to withdraw when the balance goes over a set amount (same as any other account), which hasn't happened much with them. Deposits far outweigh, therefore account always in credit (enough for a couple of bets) & never lay off bets, just straight singles, nothing fancy. There's no different pattern with them to any of the other bookies I use. I can't believe they've sussed me out as there's nothing to suss out. I'm not a pro gambler or tipster, I don't trade or lay off bets, I don't back each way when favourite odds on in non handicaps, no each way doubles, etc. I don't follow tipping lines or pricewise or hugh taylor, I'm just an ordinary guy who likes to study the form and pit my wits against them as a leisure pursuit and to moderate stakes. The only thing I don't do is back on slots, casino games, virtual racing, etc. Anyway, it seems as though no-one else on here has been targeted, which is good. All I've got left to say is.... Based on my experience if you haven't already opened an account with Paddy Power and are thinking of doing so, I honesty couldn't recommend them to you.