[Finland, Weekend, 29th of May - 1st of June.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 29th of May - 1st of June.

shit' date=' saw this too late. now already +1 1.78. anyway to have some notifications?[/quote'] I think it's still reasonable to put a small bet if you fancy my reasoning. I must confess I looked at those opening odds very long time, because I didn't undertand them at all. I still don't understand them and general exprience says that too good looking odds means I'm missing something. I read all the info I could gather, but nothing came out that favours HJK, just the opposite.

[Finland, Weekend, 29th of May - 1st of June.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 29th of May - 1st of June. Rops - HJK Rops +1 1,93 7/10 @Pinnaclesports HJK has a cruel schelude coming to this game. It's their third game in just 6 days, that must affect their as must travel 700 kilometers also. Rops lives or dies by it's home games, they changed their coach after last game and that should boost them in this game. This is Rops's secong game in 8 days. A +1 at home with these conditions? Surely looks playable to me.

[Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may. Inter has no problems, VPS is probably missing important Kainu. Both played good games last time(Inter were clearly better team eventhough losing). Inter is a big favourite. HJK is missing important Haapala, TamU is missing important Kaven and Petrescu. I think this one is hard to predict, TamU won in Liigacup-final when they last met. I won't bet on this one.

[Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may. No official team news yet, but accorfing to my knowledge Inter should be able to play with their best team. They were unlucky against and should have won that match instead of losing. VPS dominated against ROPS and they should have some lost confidence back. VPS changed coach two matches ago, but I don't think it is important news anymore. I'll update later if anything important arises.

[Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 26-28th of may. Kups - TPS 1st half over 0,75 1,71 7/10 @ 10bet Kups - TPS TPS -0,5 2 7/10 @ bwin TPS has played very entertaining football lately. In their last 2 games there have been more shots in the first half than a regular Veikkausliiga game has in 90 minutes! It was expected that TPS will be play attacking football before the season started, so I don't think that those shot totals are just a co-incident. Over 0,75 in the first half surely looks nice here. TPS has played very strong football lately winning goal scoring chances roughly 2 to 1-ratio. They just have missed so many chances that in almost every game highlight-program they'll just show TPS's various missed chances. Eventually TPS starts to score frequently at some point. Kups on the other hand seems be on the edge of losing self confidence. In both of their last 2 games they have been totally toothless after opponent has scored the first goal. If TPS scores first/early, they probably will more or less give up.

[Finland, Weekend, 23-25th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 23-25th of may. JJK - Honka under 2,25 1,94 7/10 @ Ladbrokes JJK is defensive team playing currently on bad pitch at home(favouring under). Honka is having some important shortcomings on their attacking play as they are missing Kokko(forward), Weckström(midfield) and Koskinen(defense) who all are attacking players. I felt tempted to bet JJK also, but after consideration I'll pass it. Jaro - Mypa ml 2 1,96 7/10 @ 188bet Mypa has had a very tough schelude so far facing Mifk, Lahti, HJK, Honka, Inter twice and TamU, only in-form Mifk being team not to been in top3 in past couple of seasons. Having only 1 defeat against that kind of group surely shows they are in great form. Jaro on the other hand has been weaker team in all of their games, but luckily managing a decent results so far. I think Mypa should be favourites here despite being away.

[Finland, Weekend, 23-25th of may.]

VPS - Rops 1 2,15 7/10 @ Nordicbet A standout price as other bookmakers are offering odds around 1,9 to VPS. A better team against traditionally weak away team. Had to put this early as I think price won't last long.

[Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may. Haka's coach is pondering will he be doing some changes in his line-up against Rops because of tough schelude(sort of a let-down danger here). They are missing important Corpache and Parviainen,Joenmäki. Rops is missing important Mweetwa and Tenkula. VPS's coach quitted and this will be the first game with new managment(former second coach Vuorinne and Juha Reini coming on). VPS is missing important Kainu and couple others. VPS has played better football than can be seen in the standings. I kind of wish VPS to lose here so we'll get better odds later on ;-)

[Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may. Well, last year everyone was talking about TamU's so called inner problems after couple of first games and they did go out with that 1,65 points per game. I don't know how things actually are in TamU camp, but many times people make things up in their minds just to explain results. I'll stand on my opinion that this year's TamU results have been more on pure chance than actually having any kind of real crisis. Things happen and in short term series like 26 game football league a couple of wins and losses can be many times explained by just good or bad luck.

[Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may. I put some extra effort on that TamU-game. TamU was widely expected to be one of the possible teams to able to win Veikkausliiga before the season started. They won Veikkausliiga both in 2006 and 2007. Last year they were 7th. But what many people don't seem to remember that their season started with very many players injured at the start of the last season. In first 6 games they only managed to get 3 points with problems to get starting eleven filled because of injuries. After that they went on 1,65 points per game, a solid pace for top5 finish on nearly every Veikkausliiga season. In this years pre-season Liigacup they won 6 and drawed 2 times out of 8 games with goals 20-7. There's every reason to believe TamU is still at least a top5 club in Veikkausliiga. So they look like having a bad start so far this season winning only 1 and losing 4. But have they really played that bad? No. Sometimes ball just bounces on your goal from opponents butt or you can't capitalise on your own chances. That's practically what's happened to TamU so far this year. They haven't been outplayed in any of their games. Would we seen this kind of odds if TamU has had any luck and would have something like 6 to 9 points they deserved? No. Now they are priced as underdogs. A solid top5 team underdogs at home? Even Honka is the best team ever to play in Veikkausliiga these odds can't be justified. I'm not saying TamU will win, but the odds are now as good they can get.

[Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 16-18th of may. Couple of bets MIFK - Mypa 1 ml 1,93 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports Mifk - Mypa u2,25 1,86 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports TamU - Honka 1 ml 2,09 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports TamU - Honka u2,25 1,90 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports JJK - Hjk 2 1,8 7/10 @ Expekt Kups - Inter 2 1,9 7/10 @ Expekt Mifk seems to be underrated again. Two equal teams meet and home advantage makes MIFK favourite. Under is also probable as neither is a offensive monster. If anybody would have suggested TamU to be underdogs against anybody at home before the season started he would have be laughed at. Couple of bad bounces and suddenly we supposed to believe that TamU is crap? They played equal games so far, as has Honka also. A typical overreaction in odds. So far both teams have looked more under than over teams in terms goal scoring chances in their games. JJK has had a easy schelude so far, but they already have shown they cannot create scoring chances at this level. It's hard to win games with 1-3 scoring chances per game, especially againts strong HJK. Kups is probably going to attack again at home. Against pressing/countering and much stronger Inter that looks like suicide.

[Finland, Midweek, 13-14th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 13-14th of may. VPS - Jaro 1 ML 1,73 @ Pinnaclesports 7/10 I think we see two equal teams, with Jaro having injury worries as two of their regular forwards(Hyyrynen, Meyer) are out and several other players are questionable. It may be as bad as Jaro having only 2 men on the bench. VPS is missing important Kainu. The reason for high home odds may be on the idea that this is a kind of derby game, but in Jaro's home page the fantrip to the game is only available if they have enough reservations(one bus reserved). So no real support to Jaro in the stands.

[Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A]

Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Thanks for answers. I think I found a good overall article on wikipedia, in case somebody is as unknowable in British racing as I am: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseracing_in_Great_Britain

[Harness racing - Oslo Grand Prix 2009]

Re: Harness racing - Oslo Grand Prix 2009 Quality on of a video isn't very high. Usually Oslo Grand Prix has been a fairly good test for horses planning to start in Elitloppet(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elitloppet), but this years race was so slow paced, that I think it's not a good indicator of horses current form. Elitloppet is usually raced in high tempo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbH1xEdTHhs

[Harness racing - Oslo Grand Prix 2009]

Re: Harness racing - Oslo Grand Prix 2009 The results 1st Russel November 2nd Triton Sund 3rd Igor Font It was a really slow tempo race Finders Keepers leading and Triton Sund on the outside. I think Triton Sund's driver tried to have a little too easy run for his horse and the faster horse suprised him. If race comes to youtube, I'll put on link on it.

[Harness racing - Oslo Grand Prix 2009]

First, is it okay that i'll put some trotting/harness tips on this ATR-board? I guess most of readers don't know much about harness racing in Scandinavia, so I'll put some basic info about it. The races are run mostly at distances between 1609 meters to 3100 meters having a 500 meter intervals. So distances are usually 1600-1640, 2100-2160, 2600-2640 and 3100-3140. The are two starting types, autostart and "voltstar". In autostart horses are behind the starting car numbers 1 to 8 starting in front row and numbers 9 to 12 starting in back row. Voltstart is a handicap race where the is usually horses running two distances. For example first group runs 2140 meters and second group goes 2160 meters. Usual volt start lines up having numbers 1 to 7 in front row(2140), numbers 8 to 12(2140) in back row and numbers 13 to 16 in "back-distance" at 2160 meters. The are two horse breeds in Scandanavia, the warmblood and the coldblood. Warmbloods are faster. A typical autostart http://tototv.maxinetti.fi/player/archive/1463/5 A typical volt start http://tototv.maxinetti.fi/player/archive/2954/5 Tactics and pace play a major role in Scandinavian harness racing. Roughly 50% of races are to be won by the raceleader. The races are usually run in paired que. The typical race can be divided in three phases. First phase is accleration phase where horses will take their positions(100 to 500 meters in 2100 meters). This is usually fast paced phase. The second phase is middle phase when pace goes down(500-1400 meters). The last phase could be called the sprint phase where horses come the the final 700 meters as fast as they can. The slower the pace is at two first phases, the more advantage the raceleader and horses near to it have. Sometimes the first phase and the second phase are too fast(speed duels, horses pulling too hard) and the back horses have the advantage. Horses can be divided roughly in three categories, the frontrunners, closers and all-round horses. Frontrunners are at their best when leading, closers on trail and quite rare all-rouders go everywhere. Mares are in general better on trail than leading. The first tip goes on Oslo Grand Prix, a autorace run on 2100 meters today at Oslo. I'll skip the outsiders and concentrate on favourites. My favourite to win this race is number 10 Triton Sund. Triton Sund is an all-round horse with very good stamina. It ran 2100 meter world record on it's last run at Ã…by. Triton Sund's all-round ability seperates it from it's main competitors in this race. If the race seems to go so called tactical race where the pace drops after the first 500 meters it can go outside the leading horse(probably Finders Keepers) and prevail from there. If the race is fast paced Triton Sund has the stamina to prevail in the end as the world record shows. So every possible pace goes for Triton Sund. The main competitor for TS is two time Prix D'Amerique(the biggest trotting race in the world) winner Offshore Dream. Even though OD has showed it's class in the Prix D'Ameqique it last win is backing to january 2008. OD is a closer who's at it's best in fast paced races. This is the first time OD races outside the France and sometimes the French horses have hard time to adjust to different surface on the nordic tracks. One of the favourites, Igor Font is in my opinion a fade in this race. It's very fast closer horse with exploding short sprint, but it's in the back row and in tactical run it may simple too far away from the leaders. And in high tempo run I simply don't believe it has the stamina to compete with Triton Sund and Offshore Dream. So first tip goes on Triton Sund. Winning odds are 4,50 at Ladbrokes and top 3 odds are 1,50. Both are too high.

[Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A]

Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A One other question arose to my mind when watching yesterdays Derby trial stakes. I have harness/trotting race background and many times there are overreactions for winning the races oddswise. For example, a horse wins a race and next time out it's odds are slashed way too low. In yesterdays Derby trial stakes Age Of Aquarius won by neck Montaff and Father Time and when I looked at antepost odds for Derby AOA was priced on 32, Montaff 200 and Father Time 150. To me differences on the odds look too steep as closely run race that yesterdays race was. Does winning a race in general reflect the odds too much in British racing?

[Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A]

Re: Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A Really nice thread, thanks for the earlier info. As a newbie for British racing I would like to know what are the classic/big races in British racing both flat and jumps and when they are to be run? What restrictions the races may have, like open to 3 year olds etc.? And do horses aiming for those big races have so called prepare races, which are only to be run for preparation for the bigger race and getting a good workout is more important than winning? A book suggestions for general information about British horse racing would be nice. History, tracks, horses, betting, bettor and bookmaker stories etc. I looked at the book called "From Aintree to York", anyone read that? Opinions? About bookmakers odds. Is there any kind of general pattern how odds drift during the day? If I fancy a favourite on some race is there some timescale I should wait to get the best odds? For example an hour(or whatever) before the race the odds for favourite are most probable to be at their highest point? And same for longshots.

[Finland, Weekend, 8-11th of may.]

Re: Finland, Weekend, 8-11th of may. Kups - JJK 2 3,15 5/10 Betsafe Kups coach Nyyssönen said Kups tries to win this one which in my opinion means to will go with attacking tactics on this game, the style Nyyssönen prefers. In my opinion that will suit defensive JJK perfectly opening counter attacking chances. Before the season started both teams were expected to be bottom table teams, but imo JJK is a bit stronger team and they've been good so far this season. Kups on the other hand has been very weak at defense. Kups is missing important Patrice Ollo, JJK goes with the same team they played so far.

[Finland, Midweek, 6-7th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 6-7th of may. Rops - Inter Turku under 2,25 1,86 7/10 @ Mansion88 JJK - Haka under 2,25 1,92 7/10 @ Mansion88 Rops - Inter is to be played on bad pitch up north which affects both teams as to refer to play more on ground than on the air. Last year goal average on Inter's games were roughly 2,25 on I don't expect anything really chance on that matter. JJK is a defensive team and Haka doesn't have much firepower. I guess Haka plays more defensive football this year than last year.

[Finland, Midweek, 6-7th of may.]

Re: Finland, Midweek, 6-7th of may. HJK - MIFK Mifk +1,25 1,87 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports Lahti - VPS VPS +1,25 1,94 7/10 @ Pinnaclesports Hjk is maybe the biggest favourite to win Veikkausliiga, but Mifk has put a very strong effort so far this season. I guesstimate that HJK should rather be -1 favourite than -1,25 here and I guess these odds won't stand till tomorrow. No significant injuries to either teams. Lahti has been solid this season and they are expected to be upper midtable team. Vps's start(3 losses) looks awful but they were actually a better team against Honka(they lost 5-2, Honka scoring practically every chance they got) and both other contest were evenly matched games. No official team news yet, but I guess Lahti should be only -1 favourite here and I think VPS's odds could fall if we wait until tomorrow.

[Finland, weekend, 2-4th of may.]

Re: Finland, weekend, 2-4th of may. TPS - Jaro over 2,25 2,00 7/10 @ Ladbrokes Two 'overish' teams meet. So far in TPS's matches there have been more goal scoring chances than the league average and TPS's assistant coach Rajamäki expects this game to be an open match with a lot of goalscoring chances at both ends. Both teams games were very high scoring last year(both around 3,1-3,2 goals per game) and I think the trend will continue this year.

[Finland, Veikkausliiga, 29th of april.]

Re: Finland, Veikkausliiga, 29th of april.

Thanks man!:ok What about Marienhamn vs. Kups? Getting ah -1' date=' around 1.90+ on Marienhamn may be worth a shot knowing about how terrible Kups is supposed to be these days...[/quote'] I don't see value on Mifk on those odds, maybe even other way around. Books seem to react correctly to Mifk's strong start. Mifk is missing Pronevych and Simunac, both quality players. Kups is missing Venäläinen(and not so important Pöntinen and Kolari).

[Finland, Veikkausliiga, 29th of april.]

Re: Finland, Veikkausliiga, 29th of april. Inter - Jaro 1 1,95 7/10 @Expekt Mypa - TamU 2 2,55 6/10 @Expekt I think we see an overreaction to opening games in both matches. Inter is still clearly better team than Jaro(who are missing whole bunch of players in this match, only 14 players to choose from). Inter is getting better game by game and the've got Furuholm back. TamU's odds have already been slashed, but i think there's still value at away win. Neither team have important absentees.

[Finland, Veikkausliiga, 22-23rd of april.]

Re: Finland, Veikkausliiga, 22-23rd of april. Finnish Veikkaus has priced TamU as low as 1,35. With odds around 1,55 TamU is a better side to bet on. They played very well on Liigacup and I think they should rebound after subpar last year. Jaro is developing team which can put hard time just about everybody. They miss important dman Sarajärvi in this game. I guestimate that TamU wins this match roughly 2 times out 3.