King Theoden
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Posts posted by King Theoden
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Re: Finland 11.-13.9. 2009 It seems there are 50 Veikkausliiga bets tipped on PL so far by me. Results show a 57,24 units profit with ROI +16,89%.
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Re: Finland 11.-13.9. 2009 Veikkausliiga Kups - Haka Kups ml 2,22 7/10 @ Betsson Kups has been much better with the new coach Pekonen and acquisition of Dickson Nwakaeme, who's praised to be best player in Veikkauliiga by many. Haka on other hand has cooled off after good(and lucky) start. They overachieved in the first half and for the good job coach Huttunen was fired. The new owner Koskinen seems to try piss everyone off as Huttunen, who served Haka 30 as player and coach, was dumped/backstabbed while being on the trip with Finnish national team. It was only this spring when Koskinen treated unfairly other Haka legend Valeri Popovits. And it's said that Koskinen came after one lost match to teams dressing room and started to give tactical orders to the team disturbing the team. After firing Huttunen Koskinen gave coach's job to unexprienced Sami Ristilä and I don't think that was a good decision in the long run. Haka doesn't have very strong material and team may now have mixed emotions as the owner seems to be completely clueless how to manage people and run the team. I think this is a very good spot for Kups to grab 3 points.
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Veikkausliiga VPS - Mypa Mypa ML 2,2 7/10 @ Unibet It's starting the time of season when motivational factors can affect the outcomes of matches very much. VPS coach says he needs to motivate his players to keep on playing until the season is over(it's almost certain that they won't go be relegated, top 3 is also practically out of reach). It's been 3 weeks since they last played so there can be some rust on some players. Mypa on the other hand is in quite much same situation as VPS standings-wise, but they played a competive game last week. They did show very good spirit and form demolishing ROPS 4-0. Teams are quite even strength but situation seems to favour Mypa. Value above 2,05.
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Re: Finnish translations please? Kulmapotku
= Corner kick Laukaus maalia kohti = shot on goal Maali = goal Ohilaukaus = shot off target Paitsio = offside Vaihdosta = substitution in Vaihtoon = substitution out Vapaapotku = free kick Varoitus = yellow card -
Re: Anyone want a horse racing database ?
I think it actually might be better to have separate tables for trainers etc. It may even be better idea that I leave table structing to you, two cooks don't make good soup ;). To me the most important thing for using a racing database would be that it's automated to get results and odds from the races and maybe the day's racing cards. So I might be better suited to trying find the questions and answers from the database than trying to construct it. Trying the database and finding some valuable info that might be missing from it might be more beneficious to both of us. Would that suit better to you?Structure i got so far, ( just main Key's without data attributes ) Table Horse, Table Jockey, Table Trainer, All 3 having a single primary key. Table Race, Primary key RACE_ID Field: RACEDATE Field: RACETIME Field: RACEORDER Field: COURSE Fields: title,wintime,etc... - raceorder is used in cases where the time is not known - the combination of Date+Time/Order+Course is in itself unique, the RACE_ID is a surrgate key to facilitate the joining of related data - field COURSE actually is also an ID linking to a course table but not strickly required as long as the ID or name of the course is unique Table RaceRunner primary key (RACE_ID,HORSE_ID) Key: HORSE_ID Key: JOCKEY_ID Key: TRAINER_ID Field: Draw Field: Position Fields: weight,official_rating,etc... - as the combination of RACE_ID and HORSE_ID is unique there really isn't much to gain from creating a surrogate RUNNER_ID, althou i may change my mind as i go along ;) Table Race_derived Primary key RACE_ID Field: numberOfRunners Field: places etc... - holds derived data usefull to have readily available, The tables RACE,RACERUNNER,HORSE,JOCKEY,TRAINER are required for all users as they contain the core data. The table Race_derived will be used by many but some will prefer to create and use their own custom version. The table itself is not strickly required and it is up to the individual user if they use it or not. Obviously my point of view is slightly different from yours as i look at the design for a group of different individual users. -
Re: Anyone want a horse racing database ? By Race Number I mean what is the number of the race of current meeting date. I think it's something I'm keen to know because I would like to see if there's effect on the days earlier results to odds on later races. For example, if Ruby Walsh wins race number 1 and 2 will odds be slashed on the horses he later rides on that day. On that duplicate matter, I don't really think it's an issue. It can be done in both ways. "On that subject, just so i'm completely clear about it, these 3 fields: HorseWonBy(lenghts)(decimal), HorseLostBy(lenghts)(decimal), HorseFinishingTimeSeconds(decimal) could they not be a single field strictly speaking, a single value relative to the WinningTimeInSeconds field can generate those 3 values can't it ???" Yes, in fact a field horsesFinaltime would do the same if it's calculated straight from the results(lenghts).
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Re: Anyone want a horse racing database ? Hi I thought basic table structure for results database could look like this: Races-table(primary key RaceId): RaceId(int), RaceCourse(Varchar), RaceDate(date), RaceTime(varchar), RaceName(Varchar), RaceNumber(int), RaceConditions(varchar), RaceType(Varchar),RaceClass(int), RaceGoing(varchar), RaceDirection(varchar),RaceDistance(int), RaceFences(number of fences)(int), RaceRunners(number of runners)(int), RaceFinishers(number of finishers)(int), RacePrice(int), WinningTimeInSeconds(decimal) Horses-table(primary key horseId, RaceId) HorseId(int), RaceId(int), HorseName(varchar), HorseDOB(date), HorseForm(varchar), HorseGender(varchar), HorseAge(int), HorseOrigin(country)(Varchar), HorseStallNumber(int), HorseRating(official rating)(int), CreatedRating(own or for example Racing Post's rating)(int),HorseRatingDifference(compared to best rating + or -)(int) HorseHandicapWeight(int),HorseMorningPrice(decimal), HorseStartingPrice(decimal),HorsePriceBetfair(decimal), HorsePlacePrice(decimal), HorsePlacePriceBF(decimal), HorseTrainer(varchar),HorseJockey(varchar), HorseOwner(varchar), HorsePosition(finishing position)(int), HorseWonBy(lenghts)(decimal), HorseLostBy(lenghts)(decimal),HorseFinishingTimeSeconds(decimal), HorseLastRacedInDays(int), NumberOfRacesIn30Days(int), NumberOfRacesin60Days(int) That's what I thought of for starters.
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Re: Anyone want a horse racing database ? Datapunter, in case you are waiting I'll try to do basic structure by friday afternoon. I think I'll need some time to think about this so neither of us doesn't have to do any unnecessary work.
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Re: Anyone want a horse racing database ? I can use Mysql. I would like to get know British racing and racing betting better. Things I'm interested in are for example compile some sort of speedratings, seeking what things people undervalue and overvalue odds-wise etc. I can give you also feedback to further develop your database.
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 31st of July - 2nd of August. VPS - Lahti VPS -0,25 1,98 7/10 @Mansion88 Bet against Lahti. They've won only 2 games out of their last 10 and been weaker team practically all of those games. Now they are having a tough schelude because of europa league-games and they are propably resting Litmanen and Rafael two of their best players. I think VPS is currently better team and facing tired Lahti here should favor them even more.
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 31st of July - 2nd of August. TPS - TamU TPS -0,25 1,90 7/10 @Pinnacle TPS's odds have drifted from -0,5 to -0,25. I didn't find the reason why, so this seems like overreaction to something I'm unware of. TamU's coach Hjelm thinks TPS is currently the best side in the Veikkausliiga and I agree on that. Even TamU has won 4 of it's last 5 games I don't think quality of their play has been very good. They are very solid on defense, but their attacking has seemed very weak and they've been somewhat lucky to get that record against weak or mediocore teams. TPS on the other hand controls ball very well and they are far better scoring team than TamU. Value above 1,70 for -0,25.
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 24-27th of July. Jaro - Inter Inter ML 1,87 7/10 @Sports1 Rops - Lahti Rops +0,25 1,84 7/10 @Betinternet TamU - Mypa +0,5 Mypa 1,97 7/10 @Pinnacle TamU - Mypa under 2,25 1,95 7/10 @Pinnacle Jaro is missing their first choice goalkeeper and couple other important players. Inter is still clearly better team and I think they eventually start winning again if they just keep creating far more goal scoring chances than their opponents. Value above 1,70 Rops is having two faces. The one in home games and the other on away games. So far they've been good at home and crap in away games. Lahti is rotating players because of their euro-league games and they propably aren't going to this game with their best players, that meaning especially Litmanen. Value with odds above 1,70 TamU's having great adversity in creating goal scoring chances. Their attacking play stops on the attacking third of the field because players like Rafinha and Niemi just take the ball try to create chances through one-on-one-situations. They look very slow and static on the attack, but on the defense they look very strong. Mypa's waking up after their mid-summer slump and should be able to get at least a point here partly because TamU's inept attacking play. They demolished Rops 4-0 last time out. Value above 1,75 on +0,5 and value above 1,80 for under 2,25.
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Honka - Mifk -0,5 Honka 1,91 7/10 @ Pinnacle TPS - HJK ml TPS 1,97 7/10 @Pinnacle Teams going different directions, Honka is getting better, Mifk on the slight fall. Value for honka with odds over 1,7 TPS is no way 2 classes weaker than HJK as odds suggest. Huge home support waited tonight for TPS as full house is expected. Value with odds over 1,8
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Re: Finland Veikkausliga: 18th of July Haka - Vps Vps +0,5 2,16 7/10 @Mansion88 Haka overachieved during first half of the season and therefore get too much respect from the betting public. Vps may not even any weaker team than Haka and odds for +0,5 look value with odds above 2,00.
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Re: No bet is no problem....or is it? I think Billy The Punter is right when he says number of bets per day is up to one's systems. I think most profiting horse bettors, racing or trotting, have some kind of system or some systematical reasoning behind their bets. I'm from country where racing is trotting racing, and I remember how I first found that warmblooded(we have also coldblood races) race leaders are often good bets. That was good enough for me for long time, I concentrated on those situations. I avoided coldblood-races that time, because they gallop(forbidden in trotting races) two times as often as warmblooded. Then I was at some race and looked warm-up for one coldblood-race. The favourite didn't trot at all, it was galloping and looked sore. I looked at odds board and couldn't believe that 2nd and 3rd favourite paid 18-times in quennella. Usually favourite and second favourite pay 4 to 7-seven times in quennella and we could almost certainly rule favourite out in this race. Nobody seem to put any notice that favourite had very hard time to trot on that day. The race came and favourite was disqualified at start and 2nd and 3rd favourite won and placed second paying that 18-times. Soon afterwards I realised that coldblooded very often showed their day's galopping tendency in the warm-up but people don't react to that at the betting desk. I' did found another betting "system" or angle and that happened in the races I earlier avoided at all costs. That thing was really an eye-opener for me and I realised that they are many ways to find value in horse racing and many times finding those angles one needs to be out of his "comfort zone". As newbie to British racing I can only guess if there's different methods for example jumps and flat racing.
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Re: Finland, 11th-13th of July Inter - Mifk Inter -0,5 2,12 7/10 @Mansion88 Rops - Jaro ROPS +0,25 1,82 7/10 @Ladbrokes Haka - Tps TPS +0,25 2,00 7/10 @Mansion88 Inter has IMO been somewhat misfortunate losing games where they have been clearly better team than their opponents. Mifk is a bit cooling off after very strong start and they now seem to be the mid-table team I expected them to be. Inter comes with all players available to this, Mifk is missing Anttilainen(f) and Pronevych(d) and probably Ingves(f). That would leave them short on forwards Gashi being only regular forward available. That slightly favours Inter. Inter is playable imo with odds over 1,90 Rops is considered one of three weakest teams in Veikkausliiga, but I rate them slightly better than Kups and JJK. Jaro is considered lower mid-table team and their recent performances support that view. Rops has traditionally strong home advantage and having one resting day at hand with tough scheludes I'll rate them as favourites here. Rops +0,25 is playable with odds over 1,65 IMO. Missings go even at this game. Haka is simply overrated here because of their current rank in standings. TPS is better team and they are playing better football right now. TPS +0,25 is value with odds over 1,80 IMO. Some info for couple of games I have no intention to bet on. Kups- HJK Kups has shown some signs of life after abysmal start of season. They won Rops 3-0 and Mypa in the Cup 2-0. Before that they were really weak. They've changed back to their home stadium Magnum areena after playing on Väinölänniemi. M.Areena has artifical grass, which should slightly favour them. They are missing regulars Hartikainen and Kuparinen. HJK has won 5 out of last 6. They miss Roiha and Haapala in this game, but both are replacable. I think HJK is big favourite here, but with odds around 1,60 for away win there's simply no value for either side. VPS- TamU I would wanted to bet TamU here, but they are missing 9 players here, most of them regulars. They still manage to get fairly decent team to play with, but as their forte imo was in their midfield I don't see anything valuable on TamU's odds as they miss three very good midfielders(Petrescu, Pohja and Juska Savolainen). TamU managed 2-0 over Jaro with this squad on Cup. I consired under also but both teams are pressing the fact that only win is good result here, so I guess that would mean more attacking tactics here. I don't have a view on JJK - Mypa because JJK is planning to test 6 new players in mif-july. Might not be the best thing for team spirit.
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Re: Finland, 11th-13th of July According to Veikkausliiga's site Lahti may have 8 players missing in this game. Amongst questionable players are Litmanen(best player), Rafael(best forward), Haara(regular dman) and Vanninen(team captain, midfield, one of most important players). Honka has same squad as in last game missing Weckström and Paatelainen. More team news tomorrow and maybe a couple of bets too.
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Fc Lahti - Honka ML Honka 1,88 7/10 @Ladbrokes Early bet as I think odds will be dropping more until gameday. Lahti is having a very tough schelude with Veikkausliiga and Europa League matches. They were playing EL in Albania on thursday and this will be their 4th competive game in 10 days + travelling. Bad news for Lahti is that their most important forward Rafael was injured during the trip. It's somewhat uncertain if Jari Litmanen will be playing full 90 minutes on this match as he rarely plays all games when Lahti is having tough schelude. Honka on the other hand may play the best football in Veikkausliiga right now. I've suspected their defensive efforts so far, but in game against TPS they played their best defensive effort I've ever seen. I think Honka should be priced as low as 1,75 on the moneyline in this game. I'll put more info on other games as official team news will be published.
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Kups - Rops Rops +0,25 1,89 7/10 @Pinnaclesports Mypa - Haka ML 1,95 7/10 @Betsson Honka - Tps over 2,5 1,85 7/10 @Pinnaclesports Kups seems to be this years Kooteepee. They expected to be weak, but so far they have been much weaker than anybody expected. Goal difference 1-15 in last six games tells pretty much the story. Rops was expected one the weakest teams in league, but they aren't anywhere near as bad as Kups IMO. Rops won JJK in their last game and winning very important game should boost them. Value above 1,70 +0,25 on Rops. Mypa and Haka were expected to be lower mid-table teams before the season started. Mypa's results are somewhat expected so far, but Haka has greatly overachieved. I don't think they are two "classes" between these two teams as odds suggest, so Mypa is a no-brainer-bet here. Value above 1,70 for Mypa. If there's one game labeled "over" in this years Veikkausliiga it's encounter between Honka and TPS. Both are strong when playing attacking football and medicore or weaker when defending. Value for over is above 1,55.
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TPS - Mypa 1st half over 0,75 1,70 7/10 @188bet TPS plays first halves differently than most of the football teams. They'll attack straight from the begininng. Mypa's coach Janne Lindberg says they have put an extra emphasis on goal scoring. TPS's last 6 games have had 1,83 goals scored on the first half per game. I think 1st half over is playable here with odds 1,55 or higher.
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Re: Finland, 24th of June. TPS - Rops over 2,5 7/10 1,80 @ Stan James Jaro - MIFK draw no bet MIFK 7/10 2,25 @ Paddy Power TPS's games have the most goal scoring chances in the Veikkausliiga. They'll play attacking football + their defence isn't very strong. ROPS is having several injury worries and they are traditionally weak away from home. As odds for home win suggest TPS is a huge favourite here and that should favour the over. I think 1,8 for over 2,5 is good offer as I think fair odds should be around 1,65. Jaro was expected to be lower mid-table team and I still think they are that despite having a very good start in the season. Nobody really knew what to expect from MIFK as they boasted their team up with strange players before the season. So far they shown that they really are a class team, I even think they have been overall the best team in the league so far. Despite MIFK is having couple of important missing's in this game(both regular forwards etc.) I estimate this is a 50-50 game and having 2,25 on draw-no-bet is offering a very good value. All experts in Finland hate MIFK because of their physical and direct style of play and keep underrating the team.
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Re: Finland, 24th of June.
I think Liigacup is more experimental time for teams as they prepare for Veikkausliiga-season. Teams can take more experimental line-ups for practicing purproses and it's showtime for new young players and try-out players. Basically opening line-up spots are to be won and lost during preseason and I think there are very few players whose place in opening line-up is so much cemented that they can take Liigacup lighthanded. So players take it seriously no matter what they say officially or unofficially. Liigacup is also played mostly indoors on artificial pitches so it's a different surface also with going with lively lineups. All in all I would not base team strengths on Liigacup-performances, but I wouldn't ignore them either. A crappy team on Liigacup is seldomly good team during the Veikkausliiga season. Goals scored and conceced are more important than won/loss-column. If we look at this years Liigacup only TamU and Haka have had really different results in the Veikkausliiga and Liigacup so far. And If I had to guess TamU and Haka will be roughly on the same spots/points when the Veikkausliiga is over this year even there's 8 points between them right now.Anyone who follows Finnish football....is the preseason ligacup a good indication of team strength? Do teams take it seriously? -
Re: Finland, 17th of June. JJK - Lahti JJK +0.75 1.92 7/10 @10bet JJK Odds have drifted from +0.5 to 0.75 and I think JJK is worth a bet. They are one the weakest teams in Veikkausliiga, but have a very good home support. A full house is expected today. Lahti is above average team and depending on Jari Litmanen. This is Litti's 4th game on 11 days(internationals) and Lahti's second in four days. Fresh legged home supported underdog has better chances today than normally and I think JJK +0.75 is a very nice bet.
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 29th of May - 1st of June. After tomorrow's one game(no bets) Veikkausliiga takes two week hiatus, so a little break from me. Stats so far 28 bets 15 wins staked 185 Winnings 214,0725 Yield + 15,7% Hope we can continue on as good trend as we be doing so far.
Rubbish tipsters..
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Rubbish tipsters..
I have checked those graphs and prices and over half of them are incorrect. I remember I made a paper trial of over 300 laying bets with this same idea last january and it showed a 2-3% loss after comission. I think everybody who is interested in this idea should make a proper paper trial before laying any real bets.