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Lennon

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Posts posted by Lennon

    ipredict - Football statistical predictions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    That makes sense. The likes of Messi and Bale would obviously have better finishing rates than your average striker.

    Wow, that does sound complex. Did you build your model in R, or something else? With zero programming experience I'm not sure if I should learn R or go with something simpler like Python. 

    Have you thought about scraping more accurate xG data from the shot maps at whoscored and similar sites? Not even sure if that's possible to be honest but I'm sure it's a lot more difficult than scraping text.

    Finally, when you were backtesting did you use Marathon odds? Reason I ask is because you gotta think that if you're successful it's only a matter of time before you get limited.

    Personally I'd test my models vs. closing Pinny odds because being able to bet decent amounts at those Euro bookies isn't going to last forever.

    ipredict - Football statistical predictions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi Allen. Very impressive results! Encouraging to see since I'm working on a similar project.

    What method do you use to come up with your results? What I mean is, simple Poisson, Dixon-Coles method, Conway-Maxwell method, or something else? 
    Also, why did you choose the method that you did? Is it because you believe it has the best predictive accuracy or maybe because it's the easiest to set up?

    I created a Poisson-Elo model myself (much like the one at clubelo, except with extra parameters to account for lineup strength) but I'm not very happy with it so I'm looking for something more advanced.

    UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

    Shakhtar @3.60 bet365 Shakhtar without single victory in group and have nothing to loose.Players will play for pride while APOEL already qualified and has no interest in this game.I see both teams playing open football it means Shakhtar's brazilians will have more space up front.Shakhtar finaly got good keeper-Rybka.Still some missing players in defence but if upfront will be on fire then i see nothing but away win.
    Eh, I wouldn't say that they have no interest in the game. Yea, they're qualified .. but they'd much rather finish 1st then 2nd in the group. Having said that, 3.6 for Shakhtar does look pretty good. Amazing that APOEL was minutes away from being eliminated from the CL by Wisla Krakow and now they're on the verge of winning the group ..

    France - Ligue 2 - 2-5 December

    in French Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: France - Ligue 2 - 2-5 December

    Head up Atko. We know that Ligue 2 is a difficult place at the best of times, and it can produce an occasional night like tonight where there is no logic whatsoever. But stick with it mate. If you feel like you need a break form L2 then do it, but if a good value bet is out there then I'd say take it. You've still got L1 to fall back upon anyway where I know you've had a fair few winners recently too :ok
    Yea Atko .. what meatman said .. I was in the red for 20 units for the first 3 weeks of November and ended the month 20 units up. These bad runs are inevitable .. I'm sure things will turn around for you sooner (hopefully) or later .. Glad to see you decided to soldier on :ok

    USA - MLS 2011 Thread

    in MLS Predictions

    Posted

    Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread Value is clearly on RSL. LA was 1.87 to win vs. NY and now they're 1.6 vs. RSL ?! LOL. I love RSL +1 @ 1.8. There really isn't that much between the two teams .. and even if LA do go in front, I don't expect them to push too hard for a 2nd .. they're just not that kind of team. Should be a great game, don't be surprised if RSL wins this in regulation time ..

    USA - MLS 2011 Thread

    in MLS Predictions

    Posted

    Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread Great write up MaierhofersNeck. I was on SKC and I'll be backing them again tonight for many of the reasons you stated. That and the fact that Colorado will be without 7/11 starters. I grabbed KC early @ 1.97 but I believe that there is still plenty of value at 1.90 .. Also laying Seattle @ 2.00 on Betfair. Mad at myself not getting on this earlier cause RSL +0.5 was as high as 2.20. However, with the confirmation that Rosales will be out again and the RSL front 6 picking up right where they left off when they last played together (dominating a Rosales-less Seattle midfield for 90 minutes over the weekend) I'd price Seattle up closer to 2.20 then evens, which makes them an easy lay for me.

    USA - MLS 2011 Thread

    in MLS Predictions

    Posted

    Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread RSL vs. Seattle Sounders Tough game to call. RSL is finally back to full fitness and will be able to field their best 11 for the first time since May. Seattle is nearly fully fit but they have 1 key "missing" .. their playmaker Mauro Rosales was injured in the last game of the regular season and didn't even make the trip to Salt Lake, preferring to stay home to try and regain fitness for the 2nd leg in midweek. So considering it's been a while since RSL's starters have played together and Seattle is missing the player that makes everything click, my play has to be Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (Expekt).

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