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Lennon

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Posts posted by Lennon

    Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

    in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

    Andorra V Ireland - Time of 1st Goal after 18th min A very tough card today. But one I might play is in the Andorra V Ireland game. Andorra are poor, don't think anyone will disagree with that. They are however, fairly dogged, especially at home where they are rarely hammered. Their home record so far in this campaign is: L 0-3 v Armenia (ToFG 35 min) L 0-1 v Slovakia (ToFG 21 min) L 0-2 v Macedonia (ToFG 42 min) L 0-2 V Russia (ToFG 14 min) Even away from home, they held out fairly well in their last 2 games: L 0-1 v Macedonia (ToFG 59 min) L 0-1 v Slovakia ToFG 63 min) Trap has named a full strength team for this, with no fewer than 6 of the starting 11 carrying yellow cards, and face the threat of missing next Tuesday's crunch game v Armenia should they be booked. Therefore I do not envisage them flying into every tackle from the off, which should lead to a fairly slow start. In addition, Ireland lack much creativity going forward. Anyone that seen the Slovakia or Russia games recently will understand this. Another factor is the pitch, which is supposed to be very bobbly. Obviously Ireland are not slick passing Spain, however I think it may take a bit of getting used to. In addition, the Andorans have cut the pitch to the smallest dimensions possible in an attempt to keep the space to a minimum. Finally, it is fair to expect a muted atmosphere. The stadium capacity is just 1,100, and I understand just 80 people turned up to a recent fixture. Most Ireland fans expected the game to be in Barcelona, and so have based themselves there. I am not sure how many will make the journey to Andorra, which is about a 3 hr bus ride. William Hill go just 1.4 that the first goal comes in the 16th min or after, so 1.83 with Blue Square on after the 17th min looks good enough to me. Although unlikely, the Blue Square bet also includes 0-0. 2pts Time of First Goal 18th min or after (or 0-0) @1.83 - Blue Square :hope
    Great find mate. Looks like a lot of value in this bet. 2 unit bet for me. :hope

    USA - MLS 2011 Thread

    in MLS Predictions

    Posted

    Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread Vancouver +0.25 @ 2.17 ?!?! Under 2.5 @ 1.84 ?!?! Is this for real?! Does the market not realize that Vancouver is missing their top goalscorer and RSL is missing 5 out of 6 of their best players ?? HUGE value on the bets above IMO ..

    UEFA Champions League > 3rd - 4th August

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Champions League > 3rd - 4th August

    1 question to croatian friends: How did Dynamo lost that Saturday match at home against Rijeka?Did they play reserves?Were they tired?I just don't trust Dynamo atm,i mean i'm 90% sure they will win but not sure about trashing :unsure
    Then you should bet 72% of your bankroll :tongue2 I'm with you on Hapoel Tel Aviv.

    Elo Access Function

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo Access Function

    Lennon Started looking at this last month. Have some rough and ready figures that need checking. Drop me a PM to discuss further. Maybe start another thread... ;) FJ
    Hey Jack ... I can't seem to be able to PM you ... would love to see what you've got though ... maybe you can PM me and I'll give you my email address?

    Elo Access Function

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo Access Function

    Both interesting posts - please post the url goalies, and adjusting the weighting for different leagues may also be a useful refinement given the variations between the teams between the leagues, may do some more work on this! e.g. currently I have the Liverpool game tonight rated at a 90% chance of them winning with a 100pt hometeam advantage. If I adjust this to 85pts they slip to 89% - only one percent but could be significant.
    Here's what golies was talking about ... http://mlselo.f2f2s.com/MLS_Elo.pdf

    Elo Access Function

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo Access Function

    I am still going to backtest the calculations' date=' but there is very good reason that makes me think 85 is more accurate. 85 is a result of calculation that provides a ratio between the points per game won by home team and away team. I saw it in a paper by an american guy who tries to adapt ELO system for MLS. It really makes sense. I can post the link to that paper if you like.[/quote'] Yep that american guy has it right ... I'm using his formulas to create my own ELO ratings for as many leagues as I can. That 85 number needs to be adjusted though since not all leagues have the same home field advantage. A little OT but does anyone know how I could make ELO ratings for tennis? Has this been done by someone already? My only problem really is figureing out a way to adust the ratings for the amount of games won by a certain play ... so games instead of goals ...

    Value bet the river?

    in Poker

    Posted

    Re: Value bet the river?

    I probably mostly 3bet with AQ but in this situation i had 3bet this guy a couple of times recently and i felt he had a strong hand so definitely wouldn't fold and may have 4bet his entire range so elected to call. Villain is airing on the side of loose aggressive playing about 30/23 but after only about 50hands; he has folded to a couple of my 3bets already.
    This doesn't really make sense ... so you 3bet him a few times and he keeps playing loose and raising often ... dunno why you feel he would have a strong hand all of the sudden ... this is a perfect time to 3bet and shove over his light 4bet ... you have to assume he's going to play back at some point As played I would bet around 18-22 on the river ... can't see him plaing 2 pair+ like this ... edit: Just saw result ... owned .. haha .. still stand by my reasoning though

    Gold Cup

    in Other Africa & Middle East Football Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Gold Cup

    Ok. I'm on Canada (what a surprise, lol) But honestly ... the odds are not right ... it looks like Jamaica are faves because the last time they played Jamaica beat a 3rd string Canadian squad in a meaningless game (for Canada, Jamaica had to win by 7) ... also Canada dropping 7 spots to 92nd in the FIFA rankings and Jamaica moving up 9 spots to 65th probly had some effect on the odds ... Canada is in good form ... they beat an improving Cyprus away like a month ago and destroyed Guatamela 3-0 in a friendly a few days ago ... the same side that drew 0-0 w/ Mexico .. Jamaica squeaked out a 3-2 win over Panama at home a month ago, drew w/ El Salvador and a poor Haiti side ... "Well I haven't played a game in like a couple of months now, so in terms of match fitness I am not a hundred per cent, more like about 60 per cent," - Jamaican captain Ricardo Gardner "Well, obviously the experience will have to be an advantage... seeing that we haven't practised together for a long time, so I think that professionalism has to take over... knowing where we are and commanding our positions, and if we do that then I think we should be fine," Marshall said. Haven't practiced in a long time ... doesnt sound good for Jamaica ... anyway .. my bets are Canada FTW Lay Jamaica Canada 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 Canada to win the Gold Cup @ 40-1 (LOL odds considering USA and Mexico are going to be playing with their reserves in this tournament) Costa Rica to win Gold Cup @ 8-1
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    Over/Under Based on weather conditions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Over/Under Based on weather conditions I don't have enough data to make any conclusions yet ... only started tracking weather at the very end of the premiership season ... One thing I have noticed is that when the temperature is over 30 degrees celcius, you are more likely to get draws ... small sample but for the 13 games I have for games over 30 degrees there is 1 home win, 9 draws, 3 away wins ....

    Over/Under Based on weather conditions

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Over/Under Based on weather conditions I use this site http://www.wunderground.com/ ... What I do is first type the city of the home teams stadium ... then I look for the closest weather station to the stadium by scrolling down, clicking on "Weather Stations WunderMap" and then typing in the longitude/latitude of the stadium ... I don't include any weather info that is 10 miles or further away from the stadium ...

    Ranking Managers

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Ranking Managers No I haven't backtested my variables with previous games' odds. I'm still at the stage of collecting data. Having said that, I have tested my variables like the guy in this article ... http://www.punterslounge.com/index.php?p=pages/extratime For example ... one of my variables is "distance between 2 teams" ... in 768 games I have data on HW = 48%, D = 27%, and AW = 26% . Now if I filter for games where the distance is 100 nautical miles or less, after 175 games HW = 42%, D= 30%, and AW=28%. Now this could just be variance, but there is a good chance that the home field advantage is smaller when teams are close to each other ...

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