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Posts posted by Lennon
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Hi Allen. Very impressive results! Encouraging to see since I'm working on a similar project.
What method do you use to come up with your results? What I mean is, simple Poisson, Dixon-Coles method, Conway-Maxwell method, or something else?
Also, why did you choose the method that you did? Is it because you believe it has the best predictive accuracy or maybe because it's the easiest to set up?I created a Poisson-Elo model myself (much like the one at clubelo, except with extra parameters to account for lineup strength) but I'm not very happy with it so I'm looking for something more advanced.
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Re: Turkey Super Lig 2011/2012
lolI may be new here but I am not new to betting. You keep thanking me in another forum with the same nick... ;) -
Re: Germany Lega 3
Great job mate ! Don't stop posting ! :clapwon won won -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December
Eh, I wouldn't say that they have no interest in the game. Yea, they're qualified .. but they'd much rather finish 1st then 2nd in the group. Having said that, 3.6 for Shakhtar does look pretty good. Amazing that APOEL was minutes away from being eliminated from the CL by Wisla Krakow and now they're on the verge of winning the group ..Shakhtar @3.60 bet365 Shakhtar without single victory in group and have nothing to loose.Players will play for pride while APOEL already qualified and has no interest in this game.I see both teams playing open football it means Shakhtar's brazilians will have more space up front.Shakhtar finaly got good keeper-Rybka.Still some missing players in defence but if upfront will be on fire then i see nothing but away win. -
Re: France - Ligue 2 - 2-5 December
Yea Atko .. what meatman said .. I was in the red for 20 units for the first 3 weeks of November and ended the month 20 units up. These bad runs are inevitable .. I'm sure things will turn around for you sooner (hopefully) or later .. Glad to see you decided to soldier on :okHead up Atko. We know that Ligue 2 is a difficult place at the best of times, and it can produce an occasional night like tonight where there is no logic whatsoever. But stick with it mate. If you feel like you need a break form L2 then do it, but if a good value bet is out there then I'd say take it. You've still got L1 to fall back upon anyway where I know you've had a fair few winners recently too :ok -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 30th November Are you ******* kidding me Maribor ? Up 3 with 15 mins to go they lose 4-3 .. Just might be my worst bad beat ever ..
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Re: Israel»Ligat ha'Al 2011/2012 No bet in the big derby ?
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Re: Russian Football Leagues 2011 KavkaZ, Nice start to the 2nd half eh ? :cheers
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What's with the line movement in the Krasnodar game ?? I kind of want it to get cancelled now .. :/ --- I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=43.755934,-79.456334
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Re: Russian Football Leagues 2011
Better not ! I'm lining up a big bet on Krasondar ..Because of frozen pitch, the match Tomsk - FK Krasnodar at risk to be postponed. In the Siberia, Tomsk it will be -15. In my oppinion it is not good to be postponed. The same temperature previous season -15 on Amkar Perm - CSKA, nobody died and all players wich took part are still alive. -
Re: Belgium - Jupiler League - 25-27 November grieksken, Can you please post odds with your tips in the future ? Ty
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Re: Israel»Ligat ha'Al 2011/2012
Lol, +1 Keep posting Setup .. I'm glad to see someone here writing about the Israeli league having grown up in Israel myself.A very stupid post. -
Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread Value is clearly on RSL. LA was 1.87 to win vs. NY and now they're 1.6 vs. RSL ?! LOL. I love RSL +1 @ 1.8. There really isn't that much between the two teams .. and even if LA do go in front, I don't expect them to push too hard for a 2nd .. they're just not that kind of team. Should be a great game, don't be surprised if RSL wins this in regulation time ..
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Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 4-6 November
No don't stop ! You'll turn things around .. only a matter of time.Reus is the x-factor, of course. Took him nine games to get his act together, two goals last week and now this... Remember the name, will be Robben's successor at Bayern. I'll stop posting predictions. Bye. -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 5-6 November
1.825 .. ? Has the price drifted all the 1.93 since you posted this ?Palermo v. BolognaPalermo -0.75 - 1.825 - 3 points - Bet365 -
Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread Great write up MaierhofersNeck. I was on SKC and I'll be backing them again tonight for many of the reasons you stated. That and the fact that Colorado will be without 7/11 starters. I grabbed KC early @ 1.97 but I believe that there is still plenty of value at 1.90 .. Also laying Seattle @ 2.00 on Betfair. Mad at myself not getting on this earlier cause RSL +0.5 was as high as 2.20. However, with the confirmation that Rosales will be out again and the RSL front 6 picking up right where they left off when they last played together (dominating a Rosales-less Seattle midfield for 90 minutes over the weekend) I'd price Seattle up closer to 2.20 then evens, which makes them an easy lay for me.
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Re: France - Ligue 1 - 29-30 Oct It's funny how many more posts there are in the Ligue 2 thread when compared to Ligue 1, haha .. And yea, I don't follow the French leagues much either .. sorry !
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Re: USA - MLS 2011 Thread RSL vs. Seattle Sounders Tough game to call. RSL is finally back to full fitness and will be able to field their best 11 for the first time since May. Seattle is nearly fully fit but they have 1 key "missing" .. their playmaker Mauro Rosales was injured in the last game of the regular season and didn't even make the trip to Salt Lake, preferring to stay home to try and regain fitness for the 2nd leg in midweek. So considering it's been a while since RSL's starters have played together and Seattle is missing the player that makes everything click, my play has to be Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (Expekt).
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Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12
I looked at their site but couldn't find a sign up button. Do they only accept people from Romania ?My local bookie StanleyBet :) -
Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12 Zacharael, Where are you getting 1.40 and 2.40 on a Vaslui win ?
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Re: Bulgaria A PFG 2011/12 Well done. Wanted to follow you but none of the books I have money at had the O/U 3.5 line available ..
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Re: France - Ligue 2 - 14-17 October Eh, idk. I think the more you think the odds are off on a particular bet the more you should stake (kelly). But to each his own ..
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Re: Bulgaria A PFG 2011/12 Great call FaNaTiK .. I got Baroe at 1.55 and the line closed at 1.33 ! (and Baroe won :D) :cheers
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Re: France - Ligue 2 - 14-17 October Meatman, You were obviously more confident in your Nantes pick then all the others. Why did you tip them at level stakes ?
ipredict - Football statistical predictions
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
That makes sense. The likes of Messi and Bale would obviously have better finishing rates than your average striker.
Wow, that does sound complex. Did you build your model in R, or something else? With zero programming experience I'm not sure if I should learn R or go with something simpler like Python.
Have you thought about scraping more accurate xG data from the shot maps at whoscored and similar sites? Not even sure if that's possible to be honest but I'm sure it's a lot more difficult than scraping text.
Finally, when you were backtesting did you use Marathon odds? Reason I ask is because you gotta think that if you're successful it's only a matter of time before you get limited.
Personally I'd test my models vs. closing Pinny odds because being able to bet decent amounts at those Euro bookies isn't going to last forever.