casey jones
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Posts posted by casey jones
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Re: Catterick 14th July Not the brightest thing ive ever seen someone post. If you have to lay around 2/1 Spartic and you think it’s a two horse race and the rag isn’t going to take any part surely you’re better off backing the favourite around 4/6 by laying Spartic your basically betting nearer 1/2! I wouldn’t advise doing this on a regular basis as small fields often throw up odd results generally to the lack of pace and things become tactically and jockeys all like to race on the same piece of ground which generally produces trouble in running. Other points to consider Bay of Fires is a filly racing against a colt and a gelding plus the colt is a winner as well. While the favourite may have slightly better form in the book at present its worth bearing in mind she’s been to Royal Ascot which would have taken a fair bit out of her, so she wouldn’t have to run much below her best to be vulnerable in my humble opinion.
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A while ago i made a point about this individual tipping horses at prices which weren’t available to the masses. I was shot down in flames by his associates, yesterday i witness probably the most farcical episode of all time he suggested a 28/1 shot with a 3pt e/w stake in a maiden were the favourite was odds on! Anyone who has any knowledge about the game will have identified what his modus operadi is a long time ago. He doesn’t appear to be very subtle nowadays !
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Re: Leicester 3rd July I would agree with most of that, but she is a better filly with some cut in the ground in my humble view
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Re: St Nicholas Abbey Hello Ginge I cant see E/P going to Epsom , hes a long striding beast who will better suited to the Curragh although it wont be any easy task as hes likely to bump into a few late maturung sorts from Coolmore! As for SNA he hated the ground for me, if Espom comes up fast i would have huge reservations about him! I was not surprised by the Guineas result at all, the Speed horse have come to the for and the more stoutely bred types have finsihed mid division. It doesnt look a vintage classic, i strongly suspect the Irish Guineas or the french equilant may throw up St James Palace winner.
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Re: Pick Your Stable Challenge Timepiece will need some cut come the first week in June for me i wouldnt put a fork in her just yet as the Oaks tends to cut up as a general rule. It could turn out to be a small field and not too competetive. Overal you have shrewd picks Ginge although you do have a few white elephants :rollin
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Re: Pick Your Stable Challenge Well done Ginge you are running away with it another 5l winner the game is too easy mind you Stevie Wonder could have found that one fellow :lol
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Re: Pick Your Stable Challenge Looks like Ginger will be adding to his winning list tomorrow! 6.50 Doncaster DANGEROUS MIDGE
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Can anyone inform me if Mr Winstanley is correct in today’s R/Post on page 11. He states that OLD MONEY is by Medicean and would prefer better ground, mmmmhhhhhh now while nothing is written in stone the stats suggest that Medicean stock are equally affective on a slower surface as a quick surface from what i have been viewing on Raceform. Secondly this Animal ran in October on what was officially good ground at Folkestone , i would strongly suspect it was on the slow side of good that day, it also appears to be the Fillys best run to date. In a race were few have a realistic chance of winning and OLD MONEY being the second top rated filly on official ratings, the Couch has put a fork in her because she needs faster ground! Well John Hills has the favourite a man who rarely visits the winner’s enclosure and there won’t be many brave souls wanting to take 5/2 about a runner from this barn that has been seen for 5½ months. While on paper his 3 runs too date appear to give him a favourite’s chance, however he’s drawn stall 12 and will need everything to drop right.
Mr Winstanley is suggesting connections of the fancied runners will be looking on today. I am not sure that’s true, the main dangers to the John Hills runner are all fillies and again i strongly suspect most of them will be trying to win for breeding purposes. They may well fall short on ability on the day but it’s hard to see them just having a run round. Some will point to OLD MONEY having a poor draw in stall 13 which is true but i do expect her to be in the mix. Whirly Dancer and Mountrath or Aquarius Star aren’t a million either although the later maybe a money burner. Strictly on the book Aquarius Star has a huge chance on her first run at Beverly when she split a 94 rated horse and an 80 horse which in theory makes her around an 85-90 filly, however her 2nd run was poor when she was surrounded by 70-75 types. You could give her the benefit of the doubt as she doesn’t have a lot of miles on the clock but the jury is out for me at this point although i wouldn’t be surprised if she won. So in brief you have three 75 animals in Whirly Dancer, Mountrath & Old Money who look sure to set the standard and run their race, then you have two potential improvers one with trendy southern form with a trainer who isn’t prolific and one from a yard yet to prove its self in the top draw. At the odds the 75 rated horses look the value i am not convinced Mr Winstanley has this right. What do the real judges think? -
Re: KEY RACE: Hennessy Gold Cup - Newbury Sat 28th Nov
First thing to note 7 .year olds seem to do rather well in the past renewals the betting has three of them very prominent. However the race really revolves around Denman and how he will polarise opinion. If he is as good or in the same form as two years ago he will take all the beating but the value has long since gone out of him and at around 4/1 hes much more of a back than a lay. It should be noted the last four winners have all carried over 11-3 so the big weight may not prove that much of a nemesis more the quality of the opposition. The pretenders are everywhere, Barbers Shop goes well fresh and is nicely weighted and could turn into a stronger stayer a year on, I wouldn’t be too dogmatic about him seeing out 3 ¼ m but at the same time I wouldn’t want to back him at 13/2 personally. What A friend again lightly weighted and can be readied early and comes from a top barn, probably has been over hyped but is only a 6 year old and can only improve 13/2 doesn’t inspire but I wouldn’t put a fork in him too quickly. Killyglen has plenty going for him impressive win at Aintree and a reasonably re appearance over an inadequate trip. A big positive is that Howard Johnson doesn’t tend to send rubbish down south this is a highly progressive chaser who appears to act on the predicted ground around 8/1 he probably offers a shade of value still as he appears to tick plenty of boxes. Cappa Bleu another to polarise views the best pointer around last year now in the big league with a lovely racing weight. He defiantly wants to left handed as he does seem to run left into his fences hes open to plenty of improvement and very hard to access but has obviously been primed for this a lot will depend how he jumps at this pace against high quality 3 miler chasers short enough for me at 9/1 for what he’s actually achieved on the race course. Of the rest Horner Woods fits the trends and looks over priced at 25/1 and big exchanges cue Hugo Taylor! Former Winner State of Play has attracted support after his trainer stated he was over priced , he jumps well and is still only 9 years old so there maybe a life in him yet. Ballyfitz & Gone to lunch looks capable of running well so can’t be rule out completely for value seekers. Nenuphar Collonges , Snowy Morning & Casey Jones look slow old boats who will relish a battle and could offer some value for place seekers! I am not surprised My Will has come in for support he should hack around the first circuit and creep in the race the final ½ mile hes racing off a nice weight 10-9 I can see running well for what’s its worth. Real value could lie in Horses like Roll Along, War of Attrition and the enigmaticWhile I don’t claim to be an expert on jump racing I have had a look through the Hennessy Cognac Chase on Saturday. Well there a few names from the past who have won this coveted event including Scu senior & junior, Jamie Osborne, Stormin Norman, Graham ( of wetherby & Warwick fame) Bradley , Timmy Murphy and the legendary Andy (Daddy longlegs) Thornton. Calgary Bay -
The Breeder’s cup just gets better each year! What a meeting Friday saw the legendary Henry Cecil gain his first breeders cup win with much deserved for a legend of the turf. The highlight of the first day by a distance. Saturday was phenomenal! Pounced won for Frankie and Big John, he seems to line on up every year for the little Italian. It was a sublime tactical ride from Dettori, maybe Garret Gomez should start asking for some advice after his rides on Ventura & Gayego both appeared to be asked to make up an incredible amount of ground and were badly positioned throughout their races. I have a strong feeling if Frankie would have rode Gayego it may have won. I must say what a quality jockey Peslier is, what a ride he gave Goldikova world class in my opinion and a fantastic training performance to boot and a superb filly of the highest order. Followed up by a great race which saw the master trainer Sir Michael produce Conduit to peak again in the states. Great credit must go to the second, he must be some horse to stick on for the runners up spot after making all until collared by Conduit. Finally what can only be described as the Awesome ZENYATTA. I don’t ever recall a filly or a colt making up that amount of ground in a Grade One race and winning with some aplomb. The race didn’t go to plan if she would have sat closer it would have been even more impressive, an incredible performance from a unique filly. I remember with great fondness the likes of Oh So sharp triple crown winning filly and Triptych (Winner of nine Group 0nes) Pebbles, Bosra Sham , Miesque, Cape Verdi and of course Ouija Board. However this filly looks every bit as good if not better it was a fantastic finale to great meet and one which will live long in the memory. On a more negative note Big Mac managed to cover himself in glory yet again by going on World wide TV coverage and tell Millions that neither Conduit or Zenyatta would win. I am pretty sure Channel Four and his colleges will rip the p--- and repeat this performance on a Saturday morning shortly. What a prize c---! -
Re: Catterick 3rd Nov Got that one wrong well the place lay anyway. After it was slowly into stride i thought christmas had come early but the race just fell apart.
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Re: Catterick 3rd Nov Chris i would have huge reservations about ABSA LUTTE. She does appear to be a A/W type while this isnt the most competetive event i would be against her today. I am very tempted to lay her for a place with Northern Bolt, Godfrey Street, Fivefootnumberone, Grimes faith & Ingleby Star there is a strong chance she could miss the frame. If you check back at her form in Ireland she didnt appear to relish soft ground although it was over further, i feel there are numerous reasons to oppose her today. She is NOT thrown in at the weights either and even though she is in rude health i am delighted to accomdate people at odds on!
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Re: Hugh Taylor Not according to an independent report from the Secret Betting Club! Hugh Taylor shows a loss at S/P and Betfair S/P As he is now proofing to them i would bet 1/100 they would be right! Its the same old b----- no one can get on at the prices so if he any paying clients there would be up roar because when they worked out what he was returning and what they are actually winning the would be a major difference! and the amount of complaints would outway the national debt! As the rules are very strict and transparency is key i would suspect any independent review will not be one that is being shouted from the roof top. While hes being paid to do a job and he can only do what hes told ATR are using it to gain more pubilicty which is fair enough. But there needs to be a balanced view in whats being portraid. Good luck to Hugo and all his followers enjoy your £25 at half the recommended price because those our the facts to the masses! This is final post on the matter as its getting past a joke, Hugh Taylors Mom & Dad and long lost relatives are doing my head in lol
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Re: How would you change the racing programme? Excellent piece Ginge (can’t believe I said that) lol
The game is totally over saturated! Too many Horses Too Many racecourses I am pretty sure Racecourses choose what days they race and of course most want to race at weekends when they are guaranteed bigger attendances. Race planning is a farce and has been for years, the main problem is you won’t be able to please everyone and while they are in control of own destine Racecourses will always do what’s best for them. Culling the horse population, not practical as a previous posts states the majority of the equine population are ordinary. Getting rid of Banned racing was not good for me as I did find it easy to sort out the wheat from the chaff. The bubble will have to burst sooner rather than later, the narrow banding of Handicap races has not been a good move in my view a wider band would increase the interest for punters and allow bookmakers to make hold prices for longer as they would lay more horses. Prize money or the lack of it creates cheating in lower grade races especially in the winter months. In January when the A/W has three meetings a day there aren’t enough horses to around as a general rule which makes it a lot easier to manipulate races and betting markets. National Hunt Racing is rife with un savoury things occurring regularly and so easy to influence. The Answer to the problem Less horses , less racecourses , Prize money set on scale favouring better class animals, and races created for 3.yo twilight horses who tend to get sold on for jumping or who are sold abroad because the racing programme doesn’t cater for them! Tradition will always demand the flat season starts in March and ends in November but maybe it’s need to be shortened by a month or so. There is no way A/W racing will be stopped in the summer months because trainers will also want to run horses when the ground is firm to save jarring them up. It also works as an education for horse who is backward and need time Mark Johnston & Michael Jarvis use the A/W to there advantage and bring horses on mentally. The A/W season is virtually all year round I can’t see this changing when Great Leigh’s comes back onto the fixture lists, the poster who criticized Southwell are wrong, it offers a soft ground surface and a variation to allow certain horses a chance of a win. I would say the quality of animal has improved at Southwell over the past few years and there is a lot less dross, you will rarely see horses break down there or see a race full of trouble in running it’s a very fair track on the whole. The bottom line is too many people want different things so it will be virtually impossible to find a solution which suits everyone. Trainers, jockeys, owners, Racecourses, Punters & Bookmakers will drive there own agenda so finding any common ground will be like Roy (Chubby Brown) applying to become a lap dancer! -
Re: Hugh Taylor Rarely lay horses in truth but i will put the odd one up when its value to lay, but as i said i wont be around much through the winter. Ginge: i fully understand the odds i dont agree with the nonsense you keep spouting about Hugo punters getting pennies on at 25/1 and claiming a bet when its NOT readily available. As for his 3pt b-----@ 16/1 + its design to crash horses indictaing its the wrong price, we could argue for months over this the facts are i will contuine to make money out of him because hes no where near as good as people think!
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Re: Hugh Taylor I am pretty sure when i am wrong Ginge your be the first with knife! As i appear to keep getting right its clearly getting up your nose i cant help that fellow.
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Re: Hugh Taylor It was a double figure for me without any question. I dont play it £25 and dont come that nonsense that your making packets out of Hugo arbs becasue you cant get on! I have noticed in certain races he seems to get his crystal ball out this was a very poor pick which is why hopefully some took notice of the post. I took the view to lay the place as well which as it was great value to lay. I wasnt at all surprised when it fell out of the back of the telly and finished LAST !
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Re: Hugh Taylor Ginge you keep having your £25 on @ 8/1 ill keeping laying the ones that cant win. I dont want to get in to after timing as they will all come out of the woodwork! by naming what price i made it but it was tad bigger than 5/1 But it was posted early doors for all to see, its all about opinions i dont hide i always back my judgement!
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Re: Hugh Taylor 10.06 this morning 3PT WIN @ 9/1 Skybet Youcanonlydream Skybet will have Laid around £2.46 now 5/1 I make it a maxiumum lay at 5/1 Thanks HUGO keep them coming
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Re: LINGFIELD - sunday - 01/11/2009 You are unlikely too see the horse for a while its rumoured to be moving to the boys in blue! If the past few years are anything to go by it wont be until Royal Ascot when he resurfaces!
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Re: Hugh Taylor I understand what your saying Ginge. But in the real world the majoirty of punters backing those selections are being accomodated at much shorter prices. The figures are not accurate and you will find anyone doing an independent review will point this out! No one is disputing Hugo can tip winners, but putting up 3pt wins @ 20/1+ is utterly ridiculous at 10 oclock. If he drops on one you dont fancy it can work in your favour but i cant see any point in crashing markest before they have time to settle down. Betfair is a perfect example no liquidity until 4 minutes before the off!!!!!!!!
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Re: Hugh Taylor Right ho Telphone tipster nice to see transparency in results. Slightly different format to Hugo dont see may 3pt @ 25/1 bets there in is the major difference! All about producing results on a regular basis you appear upto the task fellow!
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Re: Hugh Taylor Dont know who you are Billy But if you run a tipping line and proof selections do you have a large amount of clients who all get on at the advertised price? If they pay and cant get on at the price suggested do they re subsribe? an Honest reply would be helpful The guidelines sent out are there for a reason to protect punters, and anyone cliaming things they havent achived will be slaughtered in the media.
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Re: Hugh Taylor I'm not sure what HT's plans are - he may end up going private. It works for many people, some not (Mark Winstanley and Mel Collier). Some can't handle the pressure once the safe wage isn't there. Be interesting to see what happens in the future. Well Billy we could be watching the new Pricewise man , Hugo could be eyeing the big job when Tom Segal steps aside. As for the two mentioned, its got little to do with pressure its more about abilty too produce results long term! They have both sort jobs within the media which tells you all you need to know in truth!
Hugo Taylor
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Hugo Taylor 16PTS PROFIT Yeh right, nobody got on e/w to those stakes i would suspect plenty of 3 win 1 place , cant think were i said he wasnt a good tipster! the type of bets hes suggesting are not there simple! P.S hes not in the same league as Tom Segal dont get kidding yourselfs