Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt has only got 1 point out of their last 8 Bundesliga games against Dortmund. That game was an off day for Dortmund with a disastrous first half, but Ingolstadt gave away a two goal lead twice to draw 3:3 and even almost conceded a 3:4 with the last chance of the game for Aubameyang. As a result the coach is under pressure, but the players are backing him so far in media showing that this is not a team spirit issue.
Augsburg: Augsburg has only got five points out of their last 7 Bundesliga games. They could only beat Darmstadt that has less quality. They draw to Leverkusen away from home (very lucky) and Schalke at home (1:1). Their latest away game against Freiburg was actually pretty good, but they were wasteful in attack and done weak individual mistakes in defense.
In midfield Morales is out again and will be replaced by Cohen or Leckie. If Leckie comes in, Groß will move next to Roger and Leckie covers left wing. In defense, Matip is doubtful and could be replaced by Bregerie which would be a clear weakening.
Augsburg missing JIC, Gouweleeuw in defense and Hinteregger is now also doubtful on this position. However, with Kohr possible to play, Kacar could move back to center back position either for Janker or Hinteregger if injured. This situation is still an issue for Augsburg. In offense Finnbogason might be an option after coming back from injury, but the team still misses a player like Caiuby (out this year) for the wings.
· Tactic and game plans of both teams
Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt plays in a 4-2-2-2 formation similar to Freiburg. This allows them to make pressure early in offense, but comes along with the issue of having one player less in midfield. As a result the team turns out to defend a little deeper and try to create danger in transition play. Tactically the team has changed a lot compared to last season, where the side was pressing all together. This did not work out that well with the new coach earlier this season, so that they now defend deeper and do not press up high all the time. They are still in a transition period (similar to Bayern) with all the issues that come along in such a period.
Augsburg: Augsburg plays a classical 4-2-3-1 formation with a defensive midfield duo formed by one player who is a little more creative by going forward and another player being a defensive minded player. Chances are created either by wing play, or by long ball build up play where the long ball are or rebounds are won to make pressure in the opponents half.
· Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent
Ingolstadt changed their formation from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-2-2 formation and is now facing Augsburg in a classical 4-2-3-1 formation. This game will be very intense as both teams have their specific issues all season long. Ingolstadt is looking for the right balance and is now turning into a team more reactive. However, playing at home will come along with the expectation of getting three points against a direct rival for relegation and under this circumstances Ingolstadt will again face the issue of finding the right balance between defense and offense. Augsburg is focusing on strong defense and regularly defends deep as well. They then go forward through the wings or with long balls which led to rebounds that the team wants to win in order to catch the defense off balance.
In terms of scoring capacity, both teams are suffering a little from their defensive approaches. Ingolstadt can be certainly described as having a little more power going forward, but Augsburg has also improved in this aspect of the game recently. Both teams are very evenly matched, however there are some doubtful players for each team and the real lineups might give a hindsight about which team is handicapped more in prior to the game.
· Influence of past or upcoming midweek games
Ingolstadt: No midweek game. International Break after this game.
Augsburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.
· Weather and Pitch Conditions
Excellent pitch in Ingolstadt with 7 degrees expected. Around kick-off time there is only 20-26 percent rain risk expected.
· General Club/Coach Situation
Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt under some pressure with only two points so far in this season. However the players back up their coach and performances like the 3:3 against Dortmund give some sort of believe in the management and fans. The situation has to change soon and only points help here.
Augsburg: Augsburg has some struggle right now, which is mainly due to the lack of quality in the team and injuries. It is a transition season also with a new coach and it takes some time to adapt certain aspects of the game to the team.
Hamburg: Hamburg is struggling hard this season and the coach change had no influence on this so far. Despite getting a draw in Gladbach (very lucky), they lost clearly at home against Frankfurt (0:3) and in Köln (3:0). The latest game in Köln described the problem of the team. They are not always playing bad. Köln had real issues for a long time in the game. But a stupid red card led to the team losing clearly once again. In Bundesliga it is not enough to play well for some period of the game and this is where Hamburg has to improve in order to get results.
Dortmund: The young Dortmund team is doing fairly well with the intensity of the schedule, although the intensity is getting to them. They qualified for K.O. stage in UCL which is huge and also advanced to the next round in the Cup. However, their recent four games where very shaky. In Ingolstadt they had a disastrous first half. Against Union Berlin they advanced only by penalties, playing at home against second division team. In the derby they showed a slow form, playing 0:0 which is a fair result despite their improved form and chances in the second half. During the week the team got a 1:0 win over Sporting Lisbon playing very, very bad. That was probably the worst performance all season, with no domination defensively after the lead. Coach Tuchel tried to adjust a lot, but things went even more south. After the game the team was just happy that they brought the game home and Tuchel saying “we won’t analyze this game tactically” indicated how intense this period was even for him and that results are more important right now given the circumstances.
Bobby Wood will miss in attack after suspension. Goalkeeper Drobny injured, Hitzel as well. There is some information that Adler is doubtful too, so that Mickel might get to play for Hamburg. This could be a problem, but Mickel already played Bundesliga for Hamburg and actually Hamburg ended up winning that game.
After the intensive midweek game a couple of players were totally wasted. Guerreiro first to name could be replaced by Passlack. Schürrle not ready for 90 minutes yet. Castro was also tired, but possibly has to play. Piszczek could be replaced by Ginter; Bartra could start on center back then.
· Tactic and game plans of both teams
Hamburg: Hamburg could play in a 5-4-1 formation against Dortmund to keep the wings occupied with two players and have three players in the center to close up gaps that can be created when the full backs are linked deep on the wings. With the full backs, Kostic and the other wing midfielder, Hamburg will look to counter attack against Dortmund when winning the ball. Focus will be on good defense.
Dortmund: Dortmund plays in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 formation most of the times. They like to play a strong passing play, which requires a strong positional play as well. They have a lot of speed through the wings (full backs and wingers) which they use to get forward, while the center positions should be available as passing options and creativity source.
· Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent
This game will be all about how quick and with how much quality can Dortmund move the ball. Hamburg will look to defend with a lot of players to then be there whenever Dortmund gets sloppy on the ball when going forward. Hamburg has some speed on the wings, but compared to a team like Hoffenheim who play a similar formation recently, they just do not have the confidence, trust and also partly the quality to play this formation successfully for most of the time. However, given the intense schedule of Dortmund and relatively young squad, Hamburg might get a chance in this game when they can push those technical and quick players to play a football of fight, intensity and tackles. The 5-4-1 could allow Hamburg to get enough players behind the ball to face Dortmund offense players in 1 on 1 tackles with backups and drain the energy out of Dortmund’s play. It is not to underestimate, that motivation is totally different after CL game at home. This away game will be another test for the young Dortmund side. Individually, Hamburg has enough problems against Dortmund. Mentally however, Hamburg has got a chance to make themselves believe there is something to get in this game.
The relatively high handicap of -1 for Dortmund does not look attractive to me. The recent game against Sporting show us, that Dortmund is mentally and physically not fit enough to bring the rest after a lead. Tuchel recently said that their issues are also closely linked to the absences of Guerreiro and Castro, their best assist givers. In the last game Guerreiro was totally in the red zone after 30-40 minutes already and managed to play through somehow. Castro was very weak as well, indicating fitness/form problems too. I expect no improvement for this game by those two players and even expect at least one of them to be benched first.
Hamburg on the other hand is not showing the confidence and stability to back them here on the high handicap. They fall apart too often after being behind despite playing well big parts of the game. A game in which Dortmund struggles, but scores efficiently could just lead to Hamburg conceding another goal. As a result I do not want to get involved here one or the other side.
· Influence of past or upcoming midweek games
Hamburg: No midweek game. Upcoming International Break next week.
Dortmund: Dortmund finishing this intense run of games with this Bundesliga game before the International “break” starts. The side is pretty young and it is very obvious that certain players are in the red zone most of the games affecting the overall game of Dortmund.
· Weather and Pitch Conditions
Excellent pitch in Hamburg with 11 degrees expected. No Rain, low wind.
· General Club/Coach Situation
Hamburg: Hamburg remains to be a disaster. A lot of money, fans and history do not help to get the team going. The recent coach exchange has not helped at all so far and the club has to be careful to not get punished with relegation this year. Pressure is right on here.
Dortmund: Dortmund obviously not happy with the league standings so far, but given the intensity of the schedule, the progress in UCL/Cup and the changes in the squad made this summer, the club can be still satisfied. It will be important to keep the focus and get points in Bundesliga, even if the way of playing is not as impressive as it can be with a fit Dortmund side.
1907zico got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Weekend > Nov 4th - 6th