Weekend > Nov 4th - 6th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Hoffenheim are now the only teams left unbeaten in the Bundesliga. Two of them meet this coming weekend. @Neubs, you're looking to bounce back after that Werder Bremen result last week, what is taking your fancy?

Interestingly, 13 out of the 18 teams in this league have scored at least 1 goal per game. Any of you tempted by a BTTS accumulator? Or any over 2.5 goal picks this week?

[mrclubbie]

I felt that Ingolstadt odds abit low - Both sides very poor performance lately. Have I interpreted it wrongly?

Hoffenheim will be beaten this weekend

Edited November 1, 2016 by mrclubbie

[WinningAdvice]

What a change for Leipzig's odds. Yep, no questions asked. Definitely a loss for Hoffenheim.

Edited November 2, 2016 by WinningAdvice

[Neubs]

On first view i would say there is some value on Augsburg and Freiburg. Both playing against poor in Form Teams, but i will wait until Friday for more Infos about squads.

[Sir Puntalot]

I wouldn't be so sure about Hoffenheim, I don't think Bayern are playing particularly well at the moment. I'll have a good look at everything tomorrow and see what we can come up with.  

[malabgd]

Hertha BSC v Mönchengladbach

Hertha BSC: Körber (0/0 g), Langkamp (8/0 d), Plattenhardt (8/0 d), Darida (3/1 m), Duda (0/0 m), Stocker (5/2 m, suspended)

Mönchengladbach: Dominguez (0/0 d), Christensen (7/0 d), Doucouré (0/0 d), Traoré (6/0 m), M. Schulz (0/0 m), Drmic (0/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Sir Puntalot]

Hertha Draw No Bet @ 1.75 BetVictor

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Hertha Draw No Bet @ 1.75 BetVictor

Totally agree about the impact of Europa League at this time of the year. They are now half a dozen games in if they went through qualification and that means playing almost an extra 50% of games compared to everyone else not in Europe. You need a big squad with stamina. Going away to a place like Hertha Berlin and getting a win is a tall order.

[Sir Puntalot]

Schalke -1 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.00 Bet365

[Neubs]

Ingolstadt-Augsburg

Don´t see Ingsolstadt here as Favorite. Okey they play at home, but they are without a win in League and deserved a lose against Mainz, who are not fresh team at the moment, where you can see at Midweek in Euro Leauge, where they become many Goals in last Minutes from Anderlecht. So i also didn´t like Kauczinski as coach for Ingolstadt. Ingolstadt with this squad for me, they are near poor like Darmstadt. They hold the league last Season because they have a very good coach with Hassenhuettel. Take a look on Leipzig and see who good he is. Also they missing today Morales, Christiansen and maybe Captian and important CD Matip. He is major doubt and without him it will be very difficult, to hold the nil.
On other Side we have Augsburg. Solid team and think they will end the season in Mid-Field. 5 Games now without a win, but twice they have played against Bayern Munich. Also playing in Freiburg and Draw against Schalke. So Results on Paper bad, but Performances was not so bad. Today they missing Caiuby, Gouweleeuw and major doubt here is Finnbogasson. If Finnbogasson can play it will be very better for Augsburg Offensive. But if he not can play, then Ji will replace him. Also a good Alternative, because he is good in technical and fast, who is not good for Ingolstadt Defensive.
For me Augsburg should be grabing min. 1 Point.

X or Augsburg @ 1.72 4/10 bet365

[1907zico]

Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg

Current form based on past games

Freiburg: Freiburg is in solid form recently. While they had a seven game “home win”, “away loss” run which indicated a strong home advantage, they also managed to win away from home against Werder Bremen with 1:3. The game was pretty open, but Freiburg was the efficient side which gave them an advantage over their opponents. In their last home game two weeks ago Freiburg won 2:1 against Augsburg, but was not convincing too much scoring from a set piece and a huge individual mistake, while Augsburg had chances to lead 0:1 themselves and could almost come back to a 2:2 late in the game.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg is still struggling this season. While at the beginning of the season a lot of results could have also gone either way, they had some issues in the recent rounds. The 3:1 loss in Darmstadt was introduced by an individual mistake leading to a red card. After that game, Wolfsburg won efficiently in the Cup against Heidenheim which represented how the team could play. They deserved draws more often than losing games and could even win those games when using the chances better in offense. After the Cup game Wolfsburg lead 1:0 at home against Leverkusen, just to hand the game away in the last 15 minutes which shows that Wolfsburg is not suffering because of a lack of quality only, but that the mental part of the game got them most. In the second half the team just defended deep instead of being proactive themselves.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

Freiburg: Schwolow – Stenzel – Torrejon – Söyüncü – Günter – Frantz – Höfler – Abrashi – Grifo – Niederlechner (Petersen) - Philipp

Freiburg will miss Gulde on center back position, who will be replaced by the old and experienced Torrejón. The other injuries are missing for a longer time already.

Wolfsburg: Casteels (Benaglio) – Träsch – Bruma – Rodriguez – Gerhardt – Seguin – Gustavo – Kuba – Arnold – Caliguiri - Gomez

Draxler, Henrique and Vierinha are missing’s for Wolfsburg prior to this game and limit their offensive options. Additionally Knoche got knocked out one week ago, which led the coach to rotate Rodriguez from left back to center back and move Gerhardt on left back position. This change could lead to a better build up from the left side of the defense, but has some question marks behind the initial defending part of the back four. Didavi could be back in midfield after a long injury he is back in team training for one week.

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

Freiburg: Freiburg plays a 4-4-2 formation with two defensive midfielders and two creative/quick wing players. The formation could also be described as a 4-2-2-2 formation. The formation allows Freiburg to pressure their opponents a little more in attack, while at least one of the strikers can fall back into midfield by nature to adapt the formation to a more controlled 4-4-1-1 formation when defending. As a result the tactic used by Freiburg is a little more flexible than the 4-4-2 initially shows.

Freiburg is an intense playing side, running more than their opponents in most of their games to win the ball by pressing. They also risk a little more when passing forward, which leads to a lower passing quote and sometimes lead to Freiburg having issues to face quick attacks.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg sticks to a classical 4-2-3-1 formation even with the current temporary coach Ismael. Within this formation it depends a lot on which player material is used in order to understand how this formation plays out on the pitch. However, with a striker like Gomez in attack, it is very obvious that a lot is based on getting this target striker into action, while defending compact.

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Generally speaking I favor a 4-2-3-1 formation over a 4-4-2 formation as the midfield offers one player more and allows dominating the midfield better. Freiburg faced those issues with the 4-4-2 formation in their recent games despite getting the better end out of most games, while Wolfsburg has actually shown decent defense stability in general in their formation. This defense stability was mostly cracked by own big individual mistakes which is not an issue of the tactical formation, but more the form, quality and mental part of the players used.

 

I expect a game in which Wolfsburg should have more ball possession, but in which I also expect a lot of wrong passes. Freiburg generally has low successful passing quote and Wolfsburg had more than 30 percent wrong passes against Leverkusen, who are similarly pressing intensively as Freiburg. In a game with regular wrong passes, there could be a lot of transition plays causing issues for either of the defenses and it then depends on the quality of the offense players to use those gaps. Freiburg has some amazing offensive players with Grifo and Philipp standing out, while Wolfsburg could get back Didavi after injury. Without Draxler they lose a similar type of player though and the wingers Kuba and Caliguiri might be solid, but far from creative and special players. In transition play Freiburg looks to have some advantage which with the home advantage can make the difference here.

In regards to goals total, I am leaning to the over side most times with Freiburg due to their weak passing, but quick transition and lower individual quality in defense. However, Wolfsburg despite maybe being a little better defensively in terms of individual quality, has some disadvantage in attack, especially as the wingers do not fully convince me yet.

As a result I favor Freiburg DNB rather than the over bet. The league table situation allows Freiburg to play this game with more passion, less pressure while Wolfsburg is in an awkward situation of points needed.

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Freiburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

Wolfsburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

Excellent pitch in Freiburg with 7 degrees expected. It is likely to rain before the game. Around kick-off time there is only 20-26 percent rain risk expected.

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Freiburg: Freiburg very happy with the season so far despite the Cup out tend days ago. The side is very strong at home and the fans are loyal supporters. Coach is unquestioned here.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg really struggling to get it going this season. A lot of players have higher expectations to the league table position (Draxler, Rodriguez, Didavi, Gomez) and this a double dilemma for Wolfsburg, which is an attractive target for top notch players only when they are playing on International level. As a result the current situation is both leading to a lot of pressure to the club, but also leads to maybe influence current players in thinking about their next step instead of giving their all out here. The current search for a new coach is also a disaster as a lot of information is available in media and Wolfsburg got no’s only so far.

 

[1907zico]

Hamburg vs. Dortmund

Current form based on past games

Hamburg: Hamburg is struggling hard this season and the coach change had no influence on this so far. Despite getting a draw in Gladbach (very lucky), they lost clearly at home against Frankfurt (0:3) and in Köln (3:0). The latest game in Köln described the problem of the team. They are not always playing bad. Köln had real issues for a long time in the game. But a stupid red card led to the team losing clearly once again. In Bundesliga it is not enough to play well for some period of the game and this is where Hamburg has to improve in order to get results.

 

Dortmund: The young Dortmund team is doing fairly well with the intensity of the schedule, although the intensity is getting to them. They qualified for K.O. stage in UCL which is huge and also advanced to the next round in the Cup. However, their recent four games where very shaky. In Ingolstadt they had a disastrous first half. Against Union Berlin they advanced only by penalties, playing at home against second division team. In the derby they showed a slow form, playing 0:0 which is a fair result despite their improved form and chances in the second half. During the week the team got a 1:0 win over Sporting Lisbon playing very, very bad. That was probably the worst performance all season, with no domination defensively after the lead. Coach Tuchel tried to adjust a lot, but things went even more south. After the game the team was just happy that they brought the game home and Tuchel saying “we won’t analyze this game tactically” indicated how intense this period was even for him and that results are more important right now given the circumstances.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

 

Hamburg: Adler – Diekmeier – Cleber – Spahic – Djourou – Santos – Kostic – Sakai – Jung – Waldschmidt (Ostrzolek) – Lasogga

 

Bobby Wood will miss in attack after suspension. Goalkeeper Drobny injured, Hitzel as well. There is some information that Adler is doubtful too, so that Mickel might get to play for Hamburg. This could be a problem, but Mickel already played Bundesliga for Hamburg and actually Hamburg ended up winning that game.

 

Dortmund: Bürki – Piszczek (Ginter) – Sokratis – Ginter (Bartra) – Passlack (Guerreiro) – Pulisic (Schürrle) – Castro (Kagawa) – Weigl – Götze – Dembele – Aubameyang

 

After the intensive midweek game a couple of players were totally wasted. Guerreiro first to name could be replaced by Passlack. Schürrle not ready for 90 minutes yet. Castro was also tired, but possibly has to play. Piszczek could be replaced by Ginter; Bartra could start on center back then.

 

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

Hamburg: Hamburg could play in a 5-4-1 formation against Dortmund to keep the wings occupied with two players and have three players in the center to close up gaps that can be created when the full backs are linked deep on the wings. With the full backs, Kostic and the other wing midfielder, Hamburg will look to counter attack against Dortmund when winning the ball. Focus will be on good defense.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund plays in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 formation most of the times. They like to play a strong passing play, which requires a strong positional play as well. They have a lot of speed through the wings (full backs and wingers) which they use to get forward, while the center positions should be available as passing options and creativity source.

 

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

 

This game will be all about how quick and with how much quality can Dortmund move the ball. Hamburg will look to defend with a lot of players to then be there whenever Dortmund gets sloppy on the ball when going forward. Hamburg has some speed on the wings, but compared to a team like Hoffenheim who play a similar formation recently, they just do not have the confidence, trust and also partly the quality to play this formation successfully for most of the time. However, given the intense schedule of Dortmund and relatively young squad, Hamburg might get a chance in this game when they can push those technical and quick players to play a football of fight, intensity and tackles. The 5-4-1 could allow Hamburg to get enough players behind the ball to face Dortmund offense players in 1 on 1 tackles with backups and drain the energy out of Dortmund’s play. It is not to underestimate, that motivation is totally different after CL game at home. This away game will be another test for the young Dortmund side. Individually, Hamburg has enough problems against Dortmund. Mentally however, Hamburg has got a chance to make themselves believe there is something to get in this game.

 

The relatively high handicap of -1 for Dortmund does not look attractive to me. The recent game against Sporting show us, that Dortmund is mentally and physically not fit enough to bring the rest after a lead. Tuchel recently said that their issues are also closely linked to the absences of Guerreiro and Castro, their best assist givers. In the last game Guerreiro was totally in the red zone after 30-40 minutes already and managed to play through somehow. Castro was very weak as well, indicating fitness/form problems too. I expect no improvement for this game by those two players and even expect at least one of them to be benched first.

Hamburg on the other hand is not showing the confidence and stability to back them here on the high handicap. They fall apart too often after being behind despite playing well big parts of the game. A game in which Dortmund struggles, but scores efficiently could just lead to Hamburg conceding another goal. As a result I do not want to get involved here one or the other side.

 

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Hamburg: No midweek game. Upcoming International Break next week.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund finishing this intense run of games with this Bundesliga game before the International “break” starts. The side is pretty young and it is very obvious that certain players are in the red zone most of the games affecting the overall game of Dortmund.

 

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

 

Excellent pitch in Hamburg with 11 degrees expected. No Rain, low wind.

 

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Hamburg: Hamburg remains to be a disaster. A lot of money, fans and history do not help to get the team going. The recent coach exchange has not helped at all so far and the club has to be careful to not get punished with relegation this year. Pressure is right on here.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund obviously not happy with the league standings so far, but given the intensity of the schedule, the progress in UCL/Cup and the changes in the squad made this summer, the club can be still satisfied. It will be important to keep the focus and get points in Bundesliga, even if the way of playing is not as impressive as it can be with a fit Dortmund side.

 

[1907zico]

Ingolstadt vs. Augsburg

Current form based on past games

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt has only got 1 point out of their last 8 Bundesliga games against Dortmund. That game was an off day for Dortmund with a disastrous first half, but Ingolstadt gave away a two goal lead twice to draw 3:3 and even almost conceded a 3:4 with the last chance of the game for Aubameyang. As a result the coach is under pressure, but the players are backing him so far in media showing that this is not a team spirit issue.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg has only got five points out of their last 7 Bundesliga games. They could only beat Darmstadt that has less quality. They draw to Leverkusen away from home (very lucky) and Schalke at home (1:1). Their latest away game against Freiburg was actually pretty good, but they were wasteful in attack and done weak individual mistakes in defense.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

 

Ingolstadt: Nyland – Hadergjonaj (Levels) – Matip (Bregerie) – Tisserand – Suttner – Hartmann – Roger – Cohen (Leckie) – Groß – Hinterseer – Lezcano

 

In midfield Morales is out again and will be replaced by Cohen or Leckie. If Leckie comes in, Groß will move next to Roger and Leckie covers left wing. In defense, Matip is doubtful and could be replaced by Bregerie which would be a clear weakening.

 

Augsburg: Casteels (Benaglio) – Träsch – Bruma – Rodriguez – Gerhardt – Seguin – Gustavo – Kuba – Arnold – Caliguiri – Gomez

 

Hitz – Verhaegh – Janker (Kacar) – Hinteregger (Rieder) – Stafylidis – Kacar (Kohr) – Baier – Koo – Altintop (Finnbogason) – Schmid – Ji

 

Augsburg missing JIC, Gouweleeuw in defense and Hinteregger is now also doubtful on this position. However, with Kohr possible to play, Kacar could move back to center back position either for Janker or Hinteregger if injured. This situation is still an issue for Augsburg. In offense Finnbogason might be an option after coming back from injury, but the team still misses a player like Caiuby (out this year) for the wings.

 

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

 

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt plays in a 4-2-2-2 formation similar to Freiburg. This allows them to make pressure early in offense, but comes along with the issue of having one player less in midfield. As a result the team turns out to defend a little deeper and try to create danger in transition play. Tactically the team has changed a lot compared to last season, where the side was pressing all together. This did not work out that well with the new coach earlier this season, so that they now defend deeper and do not press up high all the time. They are still in a transition period (similar to Bayern) with all the issues that come along in such a period.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg plays a classical 4-2-3-1 formation with a defensive midfield duo formed by one player who is a little more creative by going forward and another player being a defensive minded player. Chances are created either by wing play, or by long ball build up play where the long ball are or rebounds are won to make pressure in the opponents half.

 

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

 

Ingolstadt changed their formation from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-2-2 formation and is now facing Augsburg in a classical 4-2-3-1 formation. This game will be very intense as both teams have their specific issues all season long. Ingolstadt is looking for the right balance and is now turning into a team more reactive. However, playing at home will come along with the expectation of getting three points against a direct rival for relegation and under this circumstances Ingolstadt will again face the issue of finding the right balance between defense and offense. Augsburg is focusing on strong defense and regularly defends deep as well. They then go forward through the wings or with long balls which led to rebounds that the team wants to win in order to catch the defense off balance.

 

In terms of scoring capacity, both teams are suffering a little from their defensive approaches. Ingolstadt can be certainly described as having a little more power going forward, but Augsburg has also improved in this aspect of the game recently. Both teams are very evenly matched, however there are some doubtful players for each team and the real lineups might give a hindsight about which team is handicapped more in prior to the game.

 

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Ingolstadt: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

 

Augsburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

 

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

 

Excellent pitch in Ingolstadt with 7 degrees expected. Around kick-off time there is only 20-26 percent rain risk expected.

 

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt under some pressure with only two points so far in this season. However the players back up their coach and performances like the 3:3 against Dortmund give some sort of believe in the management and fans. The situation has to change soon and only points help here.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg has some struggle right now, which is mainly due to the lack of quality in the team and injuries. It is a transition season also with a new coach and it takes some time to adapt certain aspects of the game to the team.

 

[Neubs]

3 hours ago, Neubs said:

Ingolstadt-Augsburg

Don´t see Ingsolstadt here as Favorite. Okey they play at home, but they are without a win in League and deserved a lose against Mainz, who are not fresh team at the moment, where you can see at Midweek in Euro Leauge, where they become many Goals in last Minutes from Anderlecht. So i also didn´t like Kauczinski as coach for Ingolstadt. Ingolstadt with this squad for me, they are near poor like Darmstadt. They hold the league last Season because they have a very good coach with Hassenhuettel. Take a look on Leipzig and see who good he is. Also they missing today Morales, Christiansen and maybe Captian and important CD Matip. He is major doubt and without him it will be very difficult, to hold the nil.
On other Side we have Augsburg. Solid team and think they will end the season in Mid-Field. 5 Games now without a win, but twice they have played against Bayern Munich. Also playing in Freiburg and Draw against Schalke. So Results on Paper bad, but Performances was not so bad. Today they missing Caiuby, Gouweleeuw and major doubt here is Finnbogasson. If Finnbogasson can play it will be very better for Augsburg Offensive. But if he not can play, then Ji will replace him. Also a good Alternative, because he is good in technical and fast, who is not good for Ingolstadt Defensive.
For me Augsburg should be grabing min. 1 Point.

X or Augsburg @ 1.72 4/10 >bet365

FT 0:2

[Sir Puntalot]

On 04/11/2016, 12:14:12, Sir Puntalot said:

Hertha Draw No Bet @ 1.75 BetVictor

 

[Sir Puntalot]

On 04/11/2016, 15:32:19, Sir Puntalot said:

Schalke -1 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.00 Bet365

 

[winnerwinner]

Hey @Neubs@Sir Puntalot

What do you guys think of the Monday night game between Wurzburger Kickers v St Pauli.

St Pauli's form has been horrible and they sit at the bottom of the league managing to win only 1 in 11 games while scoring only 8 goals during this period and shipping 19 goals. 

Bet365 offering odds of 2.05 for WK.

Your thoughts and knowledge appreciated  

[Sir Puntalot]

4 hours ago, winnerwinner said:

Hey @Neubs@Sir Puntalot

What do you guys think of the Monday night game between Wurzburger Kickers v St Pauli.

St Pauli's form has been horrible and they sit at the bottom of the league managing to win only 1 in 11 games while scoring only 8 goals during this period and shipping 19 goals. 

Bet365 offering odds of 2.05 for WK.

Your thoughts and knowledge appreciated  

Had a quick look at this for you. On the basis of the stats, I'd say the odds are about right. St Pauli are awful - agreed. However, WK don't score many at home, only 5 goals and conceded 4, so I'd stay well away from this match. They may well win, but I like strong indicators in my favour when betting, and I just don't get it with this match.  

[winnerwinner]

3 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Had a quick look at this for you. On the basis of the stats, I'd say the odds are about right. St Pauli are awful - agreed. However, WK don't score many at home, only 5 goals and conceded 4, so I'd stay well away from this match. They may well win, but I like strong indicators in my favour when betting, and I just don't get it with this match.  

 

Thanks mate. Following your tip on the Brazil Serie A game tonight. Are you looking at any others?

[Sir Puntalot]

Just now, winnerwinner said:

 

Thanks mate. Following your tip on the Brazil Serie A game tonight. Are you looking at any others?

Nothing more just yet, all listed here when available https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/football  

International week though.