Luther
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Posts posted by Luther
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Re: FA Cup > November 18th - 20th Must admit that I'm struggling to find a bet for this game. Oxford have injury issues (see below) and although there were 4 goals scored in the 1st tie, there were only 6 shots on target and Oxford may have been flattered on Saturday by playing against 10 men for 70 minutes. This could be tight. Oxford are facing an injury crisis ahead of their FA Cup first-round replay at Gateshead tomorrow. The U’s have just nine fully-fit first-team profesionals available, and coach Andy Melville admitted they may be left with a “bench of under 19sâ€. The squad was already hit by injuries to Jake Wright, Alfie Potter and Jon Meades, but it took a battering during Saturday’s 3-1 win at Mansfield Town. Deane Smalley and Andy Whing came off with groin injuries, while http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/search/?search=' james+constable"+united&topic_id="5256"" target="_blank">James Constable (foot) and Dave Kitson (knee) also picked up knocks. Both are doubts for the trip to Tyneside, where £90,000 is at stake in prize-money and television revenue. The options are further limited with Asa Hall, on loan from Shrewsbury, ineligible to play. So several youngsters will be promoted into the squad.>>> I'd rather play on the Under 2.5 goals on the Plymouth v Lincoln game. Plymouth are only averaging 0.6 goals a game this season and have only scored 4 at home in 8 games. The first game was goalless and this could also be low scoring. Lincoln don't score many themselves and I'm prepared to take the 4-1 defeat at FGR as a new manager inspired blip. 1.67-1.68 available on the exchanges.
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system I was away for the weekend and only caught the last 2 Overs selections - looked like another great week from my point of view... There is nothing wrong with your selection process and you were probably just unlucky this weekend. I know it is only a statistical calculation and there will always be anomalies but the Leeds v Southampton could have been any score. There were 29 attempts on goal - 16 on target.!! Any other day that would always be a winner. Keep up the good work...
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system Great work again this weekend. Thanks for your hard work....
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system A very nice result this evening and it actually went out to 1.89. Nice to see the 100% record continue..
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system
100% success for the Overs selections - well done and thanks. Maybe you should have put all the Unders selections in as Overs as well. ;)Top picks for Over 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Hamburg - Werder Bremen[/TD] [TD]82.92%[/TD] [TD]1.80[/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Leeds - Doncaster[/TD] [TD]80.87%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TD]Schalke 04 - Wolfsburg[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD]75.26%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Leverkusen - Augsburg[/TD] [TD]74.68%[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Top picks for Under 2.5 games [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Cesena - Milan[/TD] [TD]73.91%[/TD] [TD]1.80[/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Granada - Sociedad[/TD] [TD]72.25%[/TD] [TD]1.70[/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Southampton - Derby[/TD] [TD]70.75%[/TD] [TD]1.85[/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb I am struggling to find a decent bet in this game - reckon either side could win and it could be either Under or Over 2.5. So a different angle; referee, Michael Oliver has awarded 5 penalties during his last 5 Premiership performances (including one for Liverpool this season). There have been 4 pens in the last 5 games between the 2 sides. A penalty to be awarded is available at 3/1 with Hills.
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Re: Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system A great set of results this weekend - well done.! All of the Overs were very comfortable.
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Re: England > FA Cup > Weekend > 27/28/29 Jan Watford v Spurs It is interesting that the Spurs price has drifted slightly but this is only due to the question marks over the side that Spurs will put out this evening more than the 'strength' of the opposition. I believe that they will be taking the competition seriously (they invariably do) and with Man City already out and a plethora of all Premiership ties, they have a great chance of a good run and I cannot see them wanting a replay either. Spurs have a great recent record against Watford and should improve the stats this evening. Any team that they play should be too strong for a fairly weak Watford side, who have slumped a little recently. The home form doesn't look too bad but they could have been 3-0 down to Cardiff at half time and only over-powered Doncaster after they were reduced to 10 men. I will be there tonight but the 4/7 at Hills was too tempting to soften the blow of what I reckon could be a comfortable away win
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Re: UsManyDead's OVER 2,5 Goals System v2.0 Only just discovered this thread - it's going well. Well done.. Always nice to get the winner in the 91st minute..!
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Re: Spreadsheet help I have a relatively simple one that I use religiously. It does auto-calculation of bets and includes commission deductions. Send me a PM with e-mail address and I'll forward a copy.
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Re: England > Npower Football League Two > 2 January Some interesting input on the Rotherham v Bradford game. It does look as though Bradford have turned the corner and have become difficult to beat. They have a decent record at Rotherham (lost one in the last seven visits) and may be a little overpriced for this game. Happy to take them with the 0.5 start at 1.9 with 188bet and a little on the straight win at 4.0 with the Tote. As stated, they are managing to stop the top sides scoring when on their travels and Rotherham have a limited threat up front at the moment. Under 2.5 is available at 1.92 with 188bet (a little higher for small money on Betfair). Mowgli177, are you making the trip down to Vicarage Road on Saturday.?
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Re: Boylesports Pete, it probably did go straight into your junk e-mail folder. As per the other responses have stated, I'm afraid that you won't get the ruling overturned. It is the first step many bookies take before limiting stakes and ultimately closing accounts. You've just been too successful in spotting market moves before they happen...
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Re: England > Boxing Day > Npower Football League Championship > 26 Dec Watford v Cardiff City Reckon the bookies have underestimated the chances of Over 2.5 goals in this one. There has always been goals in this fixture - 12 of the last 13 home/aways have featured at least 3 goals (5 out of 6 home fixtures). Cardiff have scored at least one goal in all but one away game and Watford are regularly finding the net in home games. It is the first time that Malky Mackay has returned to Vicarage Road since leaving for Cardiff and he'll be looking to prove a point (as will the Watford team he left behind). I would have priced the Overs as favourite but it can be backed at 2.2, which looks value to me. 0-0 then..!
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Re: BBOTD - Thursday 15th December
Excellent call - hope you kept the faith.! Had a decent place bet on Corals standout prices based on the course form alone (wish I had more faith). Many thanks..1.30 Southwell IL BATTISTA - I still retain faith in this horse after backing it last twice even though i'm waining slightly still V.well handicapped on old form, the fav is unexposed on polytrack however theres fibresand handicaps like last fridays which was disgustingly poor, and then theres this handicap which is a hot little race racing off 12lb higher mark than last friday i'm out to get him, and my fella is consistant on the surface 122132 on runs here so hopefully he can get his head in front. 1pt win 7/1 laddys -
Re: France - Ligue 2 - 25-28 November
You may get a result but I must be looking at a different set of stats to yourself... Clermont have scored in their last 4 games (home and away) but they have not conceded in all of those games. Reims lost 1-0 at Metz in their last away game. In previous fixtures between the side, there have been 2 x 0-0s and a 1-0 in the last 5 corresponding match-ups. Clermont have only conceded 4 goals at home this season and I would expect this game to be pretty tight. I've taken the Under 2.5 at 1.63 with 188Bet.Clermont vs Reims Home side is the leader in the Ligue II while Reims is second placed team. Both teams have offered great games previously, scored in every of their last 4 games each one and also conceded. In the history of the matches between them we had always goals. I expect a match with goals tonight. Do not expect many as both teams have pretty good defenses. 2 or 3 goals @ 2.00 with PaddyPower -
Re: *******Hennessy Gold Cup Tickets (Nov 26th) - PL Exclusive - Draw done!******* A cheeky request but if any of the winners cannot make it, please put them back in the draw. I am keen to make the short journey on Saturday..
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Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21
Very comfortable Mustafa - loved the referee angle and made it the bet of the weekend. Thanks, LutherWon before half time :ok -
Re: *******Hennessy Gold Cup Tickets (Nov 26th) - PL Exclusive - Draw 22nd Nov!****** Wasn't planning on going this year but free tickets would change the mind...
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Re: England - Barclays Premier League - Nov 19 - 21
Really not sure how relevant the referee is in Under/Over bets but it's an interesting angle, Mustafa. Where can you find the referee goals per game statistics.? Thanks..Wigan - Blackburn Both teams are in the relegation zone and in my opinion both teams will be focused more on winning rather than not losing this one. Statistically games between these two sides produce goals and out of 10 games 7 produced 3 or more goals. Moreover, referee for this game is Andre Marriner and in the last 5 out of 6 Premier League games where he was a referee there were 3 or more goals. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (2 units) William Hill -
Re: Arc trends Not going to contribute too much to the debate, it looks an extremely open Arc this year and as the thread has shown, a whole host of horses will arrive at Longchamp with a decent chance. Maybe it is set up for a fairytale return for Ryan Moore on Workforce. If anyone on here is planning on making the trip over to Paris next week and wants free entry tickets, if you register on the France Galop site via the French version of the website, they will send a voucher for free entry for 2 persons for the Sunday: http://www.prixarcdetriomphe.com/index.html It states that it is for the 1st 100 registered but was still working yesterday. It is only a saving of €8 each but that's a free beer at the track. Bon chance..!
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Re: BBOTD 11th of September
Always enjoy reading your write-ups and you really deserved that one. Well done and thanks..!!5:15 Goodwood - Tagula Night - e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill) 15 runners are set to line up for this competitive 6f handicap and last years winner, Tagula Night, could be primed to run a big race if the ground doesn't quicken up too much between now and race time. Walter Swinburn's 5 year old gelding was an impressive 2½ length victor in the 2010 running of this race off a 2lb lower mark (well-supported) and despite recent form seeming to suggest that he's not going to make too much of an impression, I'm willing to take a chance. This is usually his time of year - with all 4 wins coming in August or September - and he shaped much better than his finishing position would suggest last time out. Tagula Night ran over this C&D last time out in a more competitive Class 3 Handicap and although he failed to beat a rival home, he may have paid for racing against the rail - which seemed to be the slowest part of the track, despite the second placed horse taking the same path (set good fractions towards the front). Swinburn's charge just seemed to get done for toe in a race that wasn't run at an overly solid pace and he usually needs that to get involved. Today, there doesn't look to be a whole lot of out and out pace, but with the big field containing plenty of prominent racers, I'm hopeful that a couple of them will make it a true test at the trip. Tagula Night looks exceptionally well handicapped now, as he began racing this year off a mark of 87 and then got put up to 91 by the handicapper after a staying-on ¼ length 2nd to the then in-form Solemn over 5f at Nottingham, a C&D which I don't think is ideal. That run was also after a 259 day lay-off, making it look all the more impressive. Since only running solid, unspectacular races since then, he has tumbled all the way down to a rating of 82, with the capable Sean Levey taking off a further 3lbs to leave him looking even better at the weights (horse also drops into a 0-85 for first time since winning this - and this is his level). Since running last time out, he's effectively 10lbs better off with Oneladyowner (4/1 fav here) for a 7 length beating - which would of been shorter if it wasn't for him being hampered - and given how Swinburn's animal didn't run to his best there (not even close), I think the form can be swung around here. Connections now replace his tongue-tie/visor combination with a hood and that looks interesting, as if it has the desired effect and perks this fellow back to his best, he's in with a massive chance (doubtful that it'll be that simple!). The jockey on board today - Sean Levey - isn't in great form of late but he's not exactly getting too many top rides and plenty of his runners have went close, so hopefully he's due a bit of luck. He's a good jockey too from what I've seen over the season. Swinburn is in similar form, as he hasn't had a winner since 30 runners ago, but enough are going well to suggest that it's not a massive issue. The biggest worry I'd have is the jockey's experience of the tricky Goodwood track, as he has only ridden 11 horses here, with 3 placing. Hopefully he can get Tagula Night to show his best, as conditions will suit and the track definitely suits - so there's no excuses in that regard. The simple matter is that 20/1 is way too big, he should be no bigger than 10/1 against this field, but he's still a risky proposition. I'll play small/medium stakes on him in the hope that he bounces back to his best, because if he does, he wins. Could as easily come last though, so it's not a bombproof selection by any means! William Jarvis' 3 year old colt - Lokies Revenge (16/1) - was the other that interested me at a price. -
Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7
Polar views from an optimistic Hornet and a pessimistic Hornet..! As soon as Mackay left, I had this down as a home banker and the subsequent departures of Graham, Cowie and Buckley have only firmed that view. Yes, they have been replaced to a degree but Watford put out just about a full strength team at Colchester and were by all accounts, pretty toothless. I know Iwelumo didn't play but, although eager to score, he will hardly be match fit for tomorrow. The left back has only recently joined and will take time to settle. Burnley is a difficult place to go to at any time and Watford's record there (8-1-2) does not inspire any more confidence in their chances of getting a result. I seem to remember saying similar things at the start of last season when they won at Norwich and the previous year when they gained at draw at Palace but had to take just about all of the 2.05 that Coral and Hills were offering yesterday (now 1.95 best price).Watford to beat burnley @4.33 Maybe its heart ruling head, maybe its blind faith. Always the underdog, we at watford surprise a fair amount of people. Sure we're away and we are yet to put in anything resembling a good performance in preseason, but that doesn't matter. We had the same sort of summer last year and beat norwich 3-2 on the Friday (a scoreline which quite frankly flattered them). We've had two huge departures in Graham and Cowie and two more in Buckley and Mackay. What people haven't realised is that we've also addressed all of the issues that have haunted us over the last 5 years. We now have a proper left back, a proper left winger, a proven target man and most surprisingly, substitutes older than 18. Oh, and Chris Iwelumo will be dying to score against the clarets at turf moor. Not to mention burnleys temporarily depleted squad and the lingering expectation from not bouncing straight back up last year. Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk -
Re: Shergar Cup Thread It's not a meeting to be taken seriously or to have a decent bet in any of the races but it is a good day out. I've organised a coach trip down there this weekend and almost all of the attendees wouldn't know (or care about) the difference between a Group One sprint and a selling hurdle but they are looking forward to having a little bet and seeing the concert afterwards. We have enough serious meetings in the Calendar - I have no problem in switching off for the day and just getting people along to the races. Could do without Jason Donovan though...!!
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Re: Fred , sort out the Tote Pools. There is no way of sorting out the Tote pools, it is all down to the total amount of money that has been bet on the each of the runners shared out to the winners, minus the commission.
FA Cup > November 18th - 20th
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: FA Cup > November 18th - 20th No confirmation but... Striker James Constable, who netted his 100th goal for the club last Saturday, is optimistic about his chances of recovering from a foot injury picked up during the 3-1 win at Mansfield Town. He said: “It won’t do any lasting damage, so maybe it will need an injection and will then be alright. “We’re down to the bare bones, so I’m desperate to be involved and hopefully it will just be a case of strapping it up to get out there.”