Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

zbrochu

New Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    261

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by zbrochu

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (105 picks +42% yield)

    Could fully understand your frustration if this was a paid service.... but its not!:wall
    I would not understand frustration even if this was a paid service. Odds movement happen all the time in AH market but luckily they are not caused by bets of of my followers.
    OK Thanks zbrochu, I will get the asian bookies. It's just that I always heard Pinnacle has the best odds, I'll get the 4 accounts you mention. I think there's no one here who does not appreciate your work, I didn't mean it in that way. Frustration was not with you, it really was with Pinnacle, always claiming lowest margins but I find their odds suck sometimes and they don't have many markets compared to others e.g. 365. Also it was to say maybe your tips are being followed so odds decreased (or maybe that's paranoid?) When you go pro it would be good to keep it in a private area, hopefully to keep prying eyes out.
    OK , thanks for claryfing. Cheers.

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (105 picks +42% yield) I have just checked asian odds (except Bury that was ommited by asians this week) Frankfurt 1,91 2,09 0,18 Derby 2,08 2 -0,08 Burton 1,97 1,92 -0,05 Cheltenham 1,99 1,94 -0,05 Northampton 1,91 2 0,09 Nuneaton 2,04 1,98 -0,06 Newport County 1,95 1,94 -0,01 Osaunsa 1,89 1,88 -0,01 Palermo 1,8 1,78 -0,02 Sevilla 1,79 1,79 0 If we sum up last column, it means now the follower of this picks has 0.01 lower odds that the one sent earlier.

    Cheltenham 1.99 down to 1.91, similar stuff every time
    No one force you to follow this game if is so painful for you. I am sorry but it makes me feel a bit frustrated. I put 20 hours a week run this service, to find picks, pay programmers, hostings, domains, manage database, create new strategies, reply to picks, write on forums and you complain about 0.01 difference because you do not feel like using odds-comparison services and opening account at more than one bookmakers.
    10% yield strategy when bookie takes away half of that is difficult
    How did you calculate half of the profit? I my yield is +14% at the moment, at 1.96 average odds, it means i have a hit rate of 58.2%. In order to have +7% yield (half of profits), one would have to place 1.84 odds on average. Do you really have 1.84 odds on average on my AH picks? I share picks on most liquid market (AH) and most liquid leagues (EPL, Bundesleague, Primera etc.) so I think the problem is the least in comparison to some betting services that have +10% yield and use some ****ty bookmakers that limit you in one week and they play games like handball or waterpolo where drops from 2.40 to 1.60 are common.

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (105 picks +42% yield)

    For example yield is calculated based on Pinnacle odds Newport 1.95, I can only get 1.893
    - yield is not calculated on Pinnacle odds. I have listed bookmakers I use.
    Usually you can't get better than Pinnacle but I can't seem to get any viable odds lately from zbrochu's tips for AH's
    - Disagree. Most games I get better prices in Asia.
    I had thought I could just make a Pinnacle account and always get near best odds but looks like I will have to make a million betting accounts and compare odds if I do AHs.
    - Yes, this is what I would advise doing. And not million, four is enough.

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield)

    Well' date=' the referee presented Cagliari with a penalty, which changed the flow of the game. Up till that point Inter was playing better, but, a good win for this thread :)[/quote'] Well, you do not know what kind of information I use to select my bets ;) I have just posted an announcement that I look for few people that are willing to cooperate with me and help me do some analytic stuff in excel etc. I simply lack time to cover everything perfectly on my own. I want to test 2-3 new strategies and it would be too time consuming to post leagues for each game. It is just a test so my advice would be to watch it for 4-5 months before considering betting this with real money, anyway. The rule I have set to this tests that you might find convenient though, is that I always use names of teams that are the same that oddsportal use. So it is enough to open their "next matches" page where all games are listed and to click ctrl+f and to type first letters of the team. I do post date of the match and besides these games (from strategies being tested) are posted on matchdays always. My website address is in my signature below sir :) Thanks!

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield)

    Just a heads up' date=' you might get better odds in other bookies because for some reason zbrochu's tips nearly always lower the odds after he posts them. I don't know if they're watching the thread or if a lot of people are backing the team at the same time, but I've found better odds outside pinnacle lately due to heavy reductions in odds. So always worth shopping around. When I follow other (less popular) systems I can usually get the best odds, or thereabouts, on pinnacle.[/quote'] Yes, I agree it is always good to check all available odds and not fixate on Pinny or Bet365 even tough they are only ones I use for simplicity for my strategy. I have taken SBOBET or BF odds on few occassion . this is tool I use: http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/spain/primera-division-2012-2013/rayo-vallecano-real-sociedad-1382674/#1X2;2

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Yes, 4.05 and 3.77 might be quite a difference. BUT! If I am able to make 42% ROI from 4.05 odds it means it has probability of 1.42/4.05=35%. It means that if you bet the game later with odds 3.77 you will have yield = 3.77*0.35= 1.32. +32% is still pretty decent yield if you ask me. Most professionals are happy with +5% yield. I am not a bank, I am a gambler - it is a tough game and each of us needs to find best way to earn maximum for himself. And I do not think you will find better bookie than Pinny, maybe Betfair in some games? There is different situation if we speak about asian handicaps. And it is what I meant when you said you read it on my site. Because difference of 2.00 vs 1.90 is big here, because my expected yield is 12% there. So for odds it is 1.12/2=56% probability. If someone takes the same bet with 1.90 odds, he is expected for his yield to fall to +6.4%. However, asian handicaps are more liquid and some times if one is late to place my bets, he can actually get better price than me because they go up and down like crazy. Regarding your question about August, I love betting in August! It is true that it is super early and it is tough to estimate a real strenght and price for the teams, but remember - bookmakers are humans too! They also use limited information and have to price up plenty of games very quickly. Sunday games end and they usually by Tuesday are ready with the offer for next weekend. And they must set odds for ALL games, they cant pass as we do! If you as a punter made your homework during transfer window and you stayed close to important information in second period of 2012/2013 season (which is now) you can use this information to estimate strenght of teams in August. It is not easy, but again - it is not easy for linesmakers working for bookies either! My favourite dog this season was Wimbledon. I remember we bet many times on them and they hit nice big prices few times. I keep fingers crossed for Braintree today in conference because I have +0.5 asian on them but it will be very tough for them. Thanks for feedback!

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Yeah, shame about Parma - luckily I personally had them also in handicap so at least it broke even. I had 4.05 Palermo and I concerns me that sometimes odds drop once I send emails. However, some times it does not happen, it depends on league and popularity of the game and day of posting (this is main reasons I have switched do daygame alerts recently). But this is still a serious concern...I will have to do something with it soon. It is not safe to bet so close to the end of the season but I think I know what I am doing. I have been quite rigorous in selection process these weeks and it seems it pays off because all bets that I gave up on, happened to be the losing ones. We will see what I can find, previous years I had decent results in last months so we should be fine. Many weak teams have extra motivation to escape relegation zone so this might be good for us some times. And thanks for writing SG!

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (95 picks +37% yield)

    Palermo hadn't won away all season - until now! Where - and how did you find that one? p
    I estimated they had ~30% maybe ~35% chance and was lucky to win this one :) That's all, no magic :)
    do you email the asian handicap advice? i have not been getting those to my email :(
    No, asians are just a trial in the background. I said to my subscribers, if you want to track them please feel free to do so, but I do not confuse them with main picks. I always post information on homepage when I update asians.
    with the main season coming to an end , do you bet on the 'summer' leagues ?
    No, I take a break and relaunch in early August. September and October are the best months for betting IMO, cant wait for this period!

    "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (95 picks +37% yield) It happens SG. I don't know about number of picks going down. Maybe there will be 200 of them in April or May. I do not want to force myself into betting games with no or marginal value. I do not think there are any patterns or rules I can say about number of picks. We still have AH :) BURY 4.71 Picks: 100 Correct Picks: 32 Profit +£371.4 Yield (ROI) +37% This weekend pending picks: PARMA 3.08 SAMPDORIA 4.05

×
×
  • Create New...