zbrochu
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Posts posted by zbrochu
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Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down 1.10 is +10% yield . 3 is odds. Yield = Probability * Odds 1.10 = x * 3.0 x = 1.10 / 3
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Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down If his yield is 10% then probability of his pick is 1.1/3 = 36.7% If your odds is 3.11 , then expected yield is 3.11*0.367 = 14% If your odds is 2.05, then expected yield is 2.05 * 0.367 = -25%
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Re: 3 categories of punters
Unfortunately because it would be easier for punters to beat bookmakers if bookmakers' goal was to divide action instead of making accurate odds. Then sophisticated players would just blindy bet against "public" teams and bets to make profits. It was possible in the past, sharp players mostly bet unders and dogs, because bookmakers shaded few points knowing people will always take favs and overs anyway.Why unfortunately ? If the bookmakers bet to a certain margin,but they choose to take more on one selection,then they must be taking less on another.So that makes them easier to beat on the selection they are taking the smaller percentage on.
Yes, this is obvious bookmakers change odds as a result of money wagered. If they get more action on one team, they lower odds to balance the action to secure margin-profit regardless of the result. This is some obvious stuff. But we discussed about starting odds before. You suggested bookmakers set odds to divide action evenly and I disagreed claiming that they set starting odds very accurately, to refelect true probabilites. For example if there is Manchester United - Cardiff game and their estimations show that Manchester is -1.25 favourite then they set starting handicap as -1.25. If they were to divide action, they would set the line -1.5 or -1.75 because they know most bets will be on hot favourite - Manchester so they would shade some quarters of AH to make an easy profit. It is how it worked in the past. Now, if they were to set -1.75 handicap for this game (-0.5 jandicap difference from their true predictions), big syndicates and intelligent players would jump in to take Cardiff +1.75 and this be very risky and exposing for bookmakers. They would be out of business in few months.If that was true then bookmakers would not change lines frequently when there is no new relevant information coming in, this is, they would not move their lines with the pressure of punters betting unevenly in one selection. What you see today is bookmakers subscribing to odds API that continuously check their prices against the competition, they are in an effort not to model the game properly but to move rapidly with the market. This is a global world where information flows continuously, and it's more comfortable to make a book and go with the flow than it is to win money by betting against punters (on a head to head of who knows more). I give you this, there are in fact a few bookies that when odds move a lot from the initial published prices that suspend the market (they stop offering odds). This could signal that they are not willing to make a book on those odds but what is more probable is that they don't want to participate in a market where volatility is high. The bookies final goal is to make money by making a market, not by betting against clients. If they have a superior way of modeling the game they don't need to be a bookie, spend a lot of money on marketing, have a crew of employees on a payroll to model the odds, give costumer assistant, share revenues with money wallets, have the entire liability of running a business. (They need some skill in modelling the odds of course if they want to publish their prices early). You can find parallel in financial markets where when you sell something (make an IPO, you are trading stocks) you usually don't ask yourself how much is this worth but how much are people willing to give to me for this. -
Re: 3 categories of punters Maybe in ninety-nineties bookmakers' purpose was to set odds that divide action evenly but not any more. Unfortunately..
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Re: 3 categories of punters I think the 'mugs' are partly included in third category AJ. Good point about arbers and BF traders and middlers - this is definately a fourt category. Money management skill is different universe. If someone does not have it, he is screwed regardless if he has a winning strategy or not. It is why many sports journalists with encyclopedic knowledge or stats professors and geniuses are poor at betting - you get money management skills mostly by making bets, making mistakes and loosing money :)
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Hi guys, I've just finished writing an email to one person and I thought it would good idea to share this thoughts with you to maybe expand it a bit more in discussion. There are 3 categories of punters: 1) The guys that have math model, a very rare bread. Often they are math and stats wizard, stuggling and working on their stuff for many many years. It is important to know what sports they bet on and what stats they use. The more popular sport, the hardest it is to beat (with NBA spreads leading the pack). MLB, NFL and football big leagues are very tough too. Eurohockey, eurobasket and other low liqudity sports are better. As far as stats are concerned, the best are players based models where every player is evaluated (by his number of shots, accurate passes, tackles dribbles etc. depending on sport) and from this individual ratings overal team strenght is derived. Team-based stats are good too assuming one has access to detailed stats of teams like ball posession. If one relies only on goals scored/goals allowed he is in very very tough spot as bookmakers have amazingly accurate model for that and their numbers are sharpened by market that is affected by team news, injuries information etc. The model is like a holy graal - super difficult to find but once it is created, it can produce as many as 500 winning bets per month. 2) The guys who have "insider information". They usually specialize in some narrow fragment of any sport or market, for example Serbian Basketball. They know a lot about coaches and teams' dynamics. What players were sold, what bought and if they are good. What players are injured or suspended, what players have diarrhea this week and who is conflicted with manager. What teams struggle financially, what teams are motivated about Cups but not the league or other way around. I believe this guys can have long-term edge over bookmakers because they use information that bookmakers don't. Of course market frequently is affected strongly by this kind of information and odds are influenced . They drop a lot and drop too much so it is no longer a good betting opportunity, but all in all I think it is way to go for people who are not math wizards with deep pockets for buying expensive databases and programmers. 3) The guys who "think" they have insider information but they really don't. 90% of bettors are in this category and they don't achieve long-term edge over bookmakers. Their analyses include information that bookmakers already priced-in in odds: Example 1: "I believe Team A is better because they are in very good form at home and they have better h2h stats from previous years vs Team B". Example 2: "I watched last games of Team A and Team B and I saw they both have weak defenses and I expect a low scoring game". Example 3: "Team A is very good team , a runner-up from previous year and after few bad games they must start winning!". Example 4: "Team A have average of 3.2 goals this season and Team B have average of 2.7 goals this season. Easy over 2.5 bet". All this examples are wrong in terms of possibility of achieving profits. All this information are included in the odds. It is not that difficult to know that game A is likely to be high scoring game. But the point is to know if this game is more likely to be high scoring that bookmakers' odds suggest. Example: There is fourth round of Dutch league and there is a game betwene teeam that had 2-4 3-3 5-4 and 3-2 results and team B who had 4-1 3-3 2-2 and 2-3 results. Both teams are high scoring and high "allowing" and many people would be inclined to take bet between these teams as OVER. But bookmakers know this results too! What if they set line for this game differently and instead of giving OVER 2.5, they give OVER 8.5 goals 1.9/1.9 odds. Would you still want to take OVER in this game? I don't think so , you would be more inclined to bet UNDER. So as Einstein said, everything is relative and so should be our predictions and estimations. "Do I believe there will be more goals in this game that bookmakers think?" instead of "Do I believe there will be many goals in this game" or "Do I believe this team is bigger favourite that -1.5 1.85" instead of "Do I believe this team is very likely to win this game" Nothing new, some obvious stuff for many of you but I think it is worth recalling.
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Re: Simple (Stupid?) Question It is easy to calculate. Lets say someone bets only 1.96/1.96 odds and have long term -3% yield. This means he hits 0.97/1.96 = 49.5% of his bets. So by betting the other side you would hit 50.5% what gives 0.505*1.96=0.99 (-1%) long term yield. Either way, we are screwed and no surprise Bwin can afford to sponsor Real Madrit
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Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Why would you want to bet every underdog in these leagues? Do you know bookmakers spread their margins unevenly and underdogs betting in general is least profitable opportunity of all? Bookmakers are rich, they sponsor big clubs like Real - do you really think beating them is as easy as simply backing every underdog blindly? You need to do your homework, test things before you bet with real money. Possibly at least 1000 bets.. Good luck
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Re: Universal Total Goals System Yes, very interesting thread Areme, good luck with your system! I am also curious about "risk reward" ratio.
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Re: Kevin Pullein's picks, 7 bets, +56% yield Shit I took Ipswich DNB earlier this week :/
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Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Hi Aldebaran, this interesting. I agree it is difficult to compete with bookmakers in estimating U/O chances by using only goals scored/goals allowed stats, they are bloody good at this. There is different angle needed here. I have tried to tackle this market with this exact assumption. I wonder what you meant by saying that, if you could write few more words about it..
Instead the idea is that the metric I have developed reflects the probability of goals being scored based on the two teams approaches to the game. -
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) 1/ Picks for this weekend: [TABLE=width: 856]
[TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]NORTHAMPTON[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]SCUNTHORPE[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]SCUNTHORPE[/TD] [TD]+0.5[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 1[/TD] [TD]BRADFORD[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]BRENTFORD[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]BRENTFORD[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.94[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 1[/TD] [TD]TRANMERE[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]STEVENAGE[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]STEVENAGE[/TD] [TD]+0.5[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]CHELTENHAM[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]PORTSMOUTH[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]PORTSMOUTH[/TD] [TD]+0.25[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]DAGENHAM[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]EXETER[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]EXETER[/TD] [TD]+0.25[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.74[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2/ Previous video uploaded in HD quality: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhpN57eNLYk 3/ New video, second part of "Money Management in Sports-Betting": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKLgSdE34cE This includes: - my 4 step procedure of evaluating tipsters' performance - who is more likely to succeed in the future? Tipster with 1000 picks and +7& yield or tipster with 50 picks and +20% yield? Excel tool to find it out - profit analysis - plateu - period recaluclation of stakes to maximalize seasonal profits with same level of risk 4/ I have started my website as a hobby and experiment. It grew in time and no longer can I offer free picks and advice. I have substantial costs of data sourcing and programmers service as well as time costs. I am expecting my first baby in upcoming week(s) and I can no longer afford to offer my advice for free for everyone. This is the last time I am posting in this topic here. I am very grateful to Paul Ross who trusted I am not a random spammer and that I can offer some educational (hopefully!) value for Punter's Lounge community and he let me to run this thread and increase awareness about my website and myself. I am aware of the rules of this forum and because my website becomes a paid service, I can no longer write about it. Please contact me via my website, if you need any information. 5/ This weeknend start new season of NFL and I am offering some tips for this sport (I hope odds are still current as I wrote them down 2 days ago) DENVER vs BALTIMORE take: OVER 50 at odds: 2.09 GREENBAY vs SAN FRANCISCO take: OVER 50 at odds: 2.08 MIAMI vs CLEVELAND take: UNDER 40 at odds: 2.03 HOUSTON vs SAN DIEGO take: UNDER 43 at odds: 2.09 PHILADELPHIA vs WASHINGTON take: UNDER 50 at odds: 2.18 NYGIANTS vs DALLAS take: UNDER 48.5 at odds: 1.95 CHICAGO vs CINCINATTI take: OVER 43 at odds: 2.06 TAMPA vs NEW YORK JETS take: UNDER 38 at odds: 2.11 TENNESSEE vs PITTSBURGH take: OVER 43 at odds: 2.04 MINNESOTA vs DETROIT take: UNDER 45 at odds: 2.08 OAKLAND vs INDIANAPOLIS take: OVER 48 at odds: 2.11 ATLANTA vs NEW ORLEANS take: OVER 54 at odds: 1.99 SEATTLE vs CAROLINA take: OVER 46 at odds: 2.1 KANSAS vs JACKSONVILLE take: OVER 42 at odds: 2.07 BUFFALO vs NEW ENGLAND take: UNDER 50 at odds: 2.09 ARIZONA vs ST. LOUIS take: OVER 42 at odds: 2.08 HOUSTON versus SANDIEGO take SANDIEGO +3 at odds 2.2 NEWENGLAND versus BUFFALO take BUFFALO +8 at odds 2 ATLANTA versus NEWORLEANS take ATLANTA +1.5 at odds 2.36 TAMPA versus NEWYORKJETS take NEWYORKJETS +2 at odds 2.42 MINNESOTA versus DETROIT take MINNESOTA +4 at odds 2.06 OAKLAND versus INDIANAPOLIS take OAKLAND +8.5 at odds 2.02 SEATTLE versus CAROLINA take SEATTLE -5 at odds 2.17 NYGIANTS versus DALLAS take NYGIANTS +3 at odds 2.15 PHILADELPHIA versus WASHINGTON take PHILADELPHIA +2 at odds 2.4 GREENBAY versus SANFRANCISCO take GREENBAY +3 at odds 2.35 ARIZONA versus STLOUIS take ARIZONA +3 at odds 2.33 KANSAS versus JACKSONVILLE take JACKSONVILLE +3 at odds 2.19 CINCINATTI versus CHICAGO take CINCINATTI +1.5 at odds 2.23 TENNESSE versus PITTSBURGH take TENNESSE +5.5 at odds 2.1 Thanks a lot. And GOOD LUCK! -
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)
Say if you had 400 picks that won 50 percent average profit per pick' date=' what model is best, this is the tipsters average?[/quote'] What do you mean by model? I think it is the word that makes confusion for me as probably i use it in different meaning? Sorry I am extremely tired now and my brain is super slow to catch simple sentences :) OK, next time will be shorter and more basic :) Tnx for feedback. -
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) I re-read your post 4 times but I am still confused and dont know what you ask about
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) Any more comments about the video? What you liked, what you disliked, what to improve? You want something more advanced or more basic?
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Re: Giraldi system - mainly based on ELO Hi Giraldi, I am very glad to see you are back. I really like your approach and If I were not 110% busy with my own stuff I would love to dig into this nad maybe have some ideas how to help you. If you have any question, you have my email I will be happy to help. As far as ratings are concerned, one word of caution. It is very tricky to evaluate newly promoted and relegated teams. You assumed premier league teams has 2000 starting points and teams from one division lower have 1800. It sound reasonable but it would be good to do some research, try different values to see what is best number for this. You can also for safety just ignore promoted teams in your ratings or just observe how what are you predictions for games involving these teams. If you for example find that you hava value bet on them frequenty or very rarely, it means you either overvalue them or undervalue them. In order to have best chance at testing your method, I would recommend many low-margin bookmakers like PINNACLE, SBO, etc. It is hard enough to beat the market using this arsenal of portfolio and I think it is almost impossible to beat big leagues in big sports using one bookmaker's account. If you have 55% hit rate, this means it is very good results because it would mean +8% yield with portfolio of respectable bookmakers I mentioned, while using only one bookmaker with higher margin like Bet365, would change your yield to +5% and variance would be much bigger and streaks of 15 lost units would be more likely and this could be unneccessary disouraging for you. Good luck!
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) You might be right, I will try different format next time :)
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) In the table i always give handicap next to home team but information about what team to bet on is late (home/away) So this would be york +0.25
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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) I am back after soccer summer break! And I have four piece of news for you: 1/ This is my first official picks for this season (one underdog bet and 6 asian handicap bets) 2013-08-31 SWE AIK GEFLE AWAY 7.50 2013-08-31 ENG 1 SHREWSBURY +0 COVENTRY AWAY 1.93 2013-08-31 ENG 2 EXETER -0.25 YORK AWAY 1.95 2013-08-31 ENG 2 TORQUAY -0.25 HARTLEPOOL AWAY 1.93 2013-08-31 ENG CHAMP BLACKBURN -0.25 BOLTON HOME 2.14 2013-08-31 SPAIN OSASUNA +0 VILLAREAL HOME 1.88 2013-08-31 FRANCE RENNES -0.5 LILLE AWAY 1.49 2/ I have recorded first part of the video on money management in sports-betting. It lasts 40 minutes. Recording quality is not the best but I hope you like the content! make sure you changed quality of the video on youtube. I was too busy to properly edit and improve it so please pay attention to content only :)
3/ There will be some changes in comparison to previous year but we will post details about it during the week. 4/ I am very happy to announce (if you are not aware already) that my MLB model has been very successful during summer. We managed to make 582 units of profit, mostly betting under/overs. Bets are still posted everyday on my website's forum. Good luck! -
Re: What happens to teams the match after having two men sent off? Good idea, I like it!
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Re: HT/FT Betting Advice
Another thing to check is the competitiveness of the odds on the HT/FT market. What is the bookies' over-round or margin? I am guessing their margin might be higher which means it will be harder to make money by betting on that market than on a more popular one like' date=' say, the 1/2/X market.[/quote'] Yes thats good point, margins are high and the only serious bookmaker that offers this kind of market is sbobet and bet365. The rest is joke that will limit you once you win anything substantial. -
Re: HT/FT Betting Advice Hi John, I would stick to singles, I wrote more about it here: http://www.30bets.com/singles-versus-accumulators/ Good luck with HT/FT. I was playign with this market a bit and I noticed that biggets value is HT/FT H/H or A/A for high priced underdogs. Often when upset is expected it is 0-1 by half time and they defend strongly to deliver a 0-1 full time.
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Re: Estimations based on Odds Data of local book Hi Christos, I can see lots of potential in this method. Help me understand the part about local bookies though. You said you use one local bookie's estimations for all games ? Or you you for example Danish local bookie for Danish picks and Mexican local bookie for Mexican leagues? If you use only one local bookie for all games, why do you think his estimations are good? Why you suppose this particular bookmaker is better than others? And my last thing: I would recommend using Pinnacle and Bet365 for odds, you will have better chance of succeding because average market odds are rather low odds (high margin odds) so you would need probably 60% hit rate to even break-even which is extremely difficult to achieve! Thanks!
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Re: Billy Walters, successful sports bettor from the USA - what can be learned from h I have watched this video recently and now I am reading this book and so far it has been very interesting reading: http://www.amazon.com/The-Smart-Money-Bettors-Millions/dp/0743277147/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1374082457&sr=8-2-fkmr0&keywords=konik+gambled And I remember reading an interview with Billy Walters in this book: http://www.amazon.com/Gambling-Wizards-Conversations-Greatest-Gamblers/dp/0929712056/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1374082517&sr=1-2-fkmr0&keywords=interviews+with+usccesful+gamblers
FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st I think this will be most interesting of all games this season. I hope there will TV broadcast in my country for this game and not Barca that it is decided already. Betting-wise I have no clue, asians and under/overs seem very tough and I will probably skip betting and just focus on enjoying the game. I like Bayern but root for the underdogs this time!