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gonxalo2000

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Posts posted by gonxalo2000

    Lay Correct score (poison)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    sure..

    first i calculate goal average for and againt (local and away)

    then i calculate strength: attack and defence: attack strengs = avg goal for / avg league gol for... same for defence.

    local goal expectancy = home attack strength * away defence strenght * avg home leage goal for

    away goal expentancy = home defence strength * away attack strength * avg away leage gol for

    i'm taking it from my excel ... i hope this is accurate

    Lay Correct score (poison)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Almost!

    DATE HOME AWAY SCORE PROB ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK
    30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55 W 4.25 1004.55
    30/11/2015 NAPOLI INTER 2-1 5.05 19.81 10.00 30.14 3.35      

     

    Probability of 2-0 is 6.61% ...15.12  odds  but odds of bf was 9.8, just 0.2 from 2-1 with a prob, of 5.05%, Maybe a better pic, let's see.

     

    Lay Correct score (poison)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I don't know is that's the correct thread for this post....fell free to move...

    rules:

    I'll calculate correct score using poison distribution and compare odds with BF.

    Just league matchs on leagues with 10 or more games played.

    Initial bank will be 1000 units and each bet will take 3% bank.

    Odds under 10 to minimize layabilitie.

     

    I don't pretend to win every bet, but make a profit by paying under probabilitie.

    I'll start with a match in less than one hour because i think my first pick will fail ;(

     

    DATE HOME AWAY SCORE % ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK
    30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55     1000.00

     

    GL.

     

    MagOOs Football Magic S/R 56/67 Return +13.90 units

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MagOOs Football Magic SR 86/101 Profit +33%

    Magoo Grex is 100% right and he's trying to be helpful. What he's trying to say is that it's not his point of view against your point of view and you can “agree to disagree” but that there are basic rules of maths that we apply to betting and you simply can not “disagree” with them. Whether you agree or disagree doesn't affect them at all but can seriously affect you or your followers. To keep it simple, why don't you try when posting your selection to include odds at which you lay, your stake and liability. It's not a big hassle to add few numbers and you will see how your risk control and awareness of how your system works will increase. Remember that we all learn from this forum ;) Btw, nice selections so far :) Keep it up :ok
    what do you think "Arsenal $3.10" means? lay 1 @ 4.10 so, if he wins, he make 0.95 profit... he loose, he loose 3.10 then: 0.95 / 3.10 = 30% profit 33% it's quite right :ok what's the discussion!?
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