nicko
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Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th
I said I would wait for the line-ups pre-game and since Ajax best player (lately) got injured during the warming-up I backed off. But it does not matter anymore' date=' congrats anyway you got a pik right. This was my only wrong pick on these 3 european nights so I don't really care. :-)[/quote'] Keep posting senk, there are always ''experts'' who instead of enjoying their win rather point at other people's failures... You did fine this week ! -
Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th Rubin Kazan + 0,25 AH - won & void Esbjerg Both to Score - won Porto - 1 AH - lost Ajax Over 2,5 - won Ajax - Over 3,5 - lost Ajax - Over 4,5 Cards - won
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Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th
Ajax look very steady to me. Watched them many times this season, including CL, where they did not give up without a fight, in a heavy group. In the domestic league they have improved tactically a lot - to me this is no longer Ajax going forward all the time, they ''calculate'' more, they slow the tempo when needed, no more reckless rushing forward. At the back they look very solid to me. Odds for HW are high considering what teams meet - Dutch vs Austrian league. IMO the Dutch League has ''slowed down'' a bit, as most of the talent get sold abroad far too quick, while especially with Salzburg the situation is exactly the opposite. Yet I have seen Salzburg many times too. From a team bought for the personal entertainment of a very rich guy they are gradually turning into a very decent European team who can surprise many. They simply do not belong to the Austrian league anymore, this is how big the gap in class is between them and the rest of the teams in this league. Very solid at the back, a goal machine forward. An Austrian version of Celtic. True, the lack of real competition at home can slow them down, and I was curious how will they look after the break. They look even better, banging in with ease 15 goals in 3 games. A bit earlier in the preparation period did well vs Zenith, losing by a single goal, and destroyed a semi-experimental side of Bayern - I saw highlights of the game, in front of a full crowd - impressive ! Bayern missing some regulars was no excuse for the fact that the game was one way traffic, it was Salzburg all the way from what I saw. Fact is the domestic league and pre-season games should be no big point in Europe. Ajax are in Europe forever, producing over the past 40 years incredible talent and genious players. Salzburg on the other hand are IMO a rising force to consider, who seeks desperate European recognition - Austria is no longer a challenge to them. I see Salzburg in CL groups next year, with a bit of luck avoiding a couple of teams. Money-wise they are solid by the higher Euro standards. The game tonight? Two very solid defenses, make no mistake about the Austrians. Two very dangerous teams forward. Great crowd and a home team, who despite having no big names left, rises to all Euro games, with pride and great history. Guests who want Euro breakthough by all means, and they have all the resouces. IMO the value is with the HW at these odds, but I am not brave enough to take it. IMO the value is with the Under 3 Goals, but I do not bet on Unders. Instead I will go against my own logic, and go for: Over 2,5 Goals - 3 units Over 3,5 Goals with 1 unit Over 4,5 Cards with 3 units at the incredible 2,10 with bet365. GLAbout the Dutch sides, I would pick Ajax and leave AZ Alkmaar for what it is. Ajax are very solid team which performed really well in de CL. They actually deserved to qualify instead of AC Milan. In the league Ajax is not in top-form, but they aren't bad either. They're really consistent, hardly conseed a goal and win their matches. I don't know much about Salzburg, except from their pretty good record in recent month. The thing is that they're playing in the Austrian league, which I don't rate very highly. In de EL they also played well, but Ajax also played well in the CL. Giving the fact that Ajax plays at home, I'll defenitely put my money on Ajax. Some record for Ajax at home in the Dutch league: 12 games played, won 10, drew 1, lossed 1. Goals scored: 29, conceded: 4. Then about my team: AZ Alkmaar, they are as inconsistent and unpredictable as it can be. In the league our away record is shit, but the thing is that we loose to mediocre and play pretty well in the away games against the top sides in the league (PSV, Feyenoord, Vitesse so far). In Europe our away record is pretty decent, I don't even think we've lossed yet. But like I said, everything is possible for AZ. At least we will start with the strongest line-up, nobody will be rested, despite the fact that we're playing Ajax-away on Sunday. I would leave this game for what it is and don't bet on it. -
Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th
Money is already with bet365, fingers crossed. Thanks for the info though...Please note Rubin sold Rondon, Marcano, Natcho & Ryazantsev in January. All from the starting lineup. They've sacked former manager Berdyev as well and brought in the inexperienced Bilyaletdinov. -
Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th
Esbjerg + 1 AH is currently at 1,70, I need a bit more than this. Both to score is at the reasonable 1,80 and I am taking it. Rubin Kazan + 0,25 AH is at 1,95 and I am also taking it. Porto -1 AH also makes sense to me. I do believe is history in Europe and Porto are here for lyfetime. The Germans will give them a good fight, Franfurt are quite good at keeping it tight, despite the number of goals conceded in the domestic league. The sitaution in Portugal could be a bit of a distraction to Porto - the sudden revival of Sporting made the Season a lot more interesting and competative, and hosts will not appriciate much a tough night vs Franfurt plus a Sunday game vs a very good team ( Estoril ). I still think the class and the experience here should prevail.Can't see Betis a favourite at home vs Rubin. The Spanish Team in a desperate fight to stay in Primera, with a CL contender visit at the weekend ( Bilbao ). The Russians are a hard working team, with killer counters, and solid defence. Rubin is in Europe for ages, both coach and majority of players have great experience in Europa League and CL. Last thing Betis needs now is a distraction from the league, rotation is certain, motivation and morale - doubtful for such a game. Another relegation for the Sevilla team is close, but I think they will fight hard all the way. Europe comes second as a proirity, while to Kazan the longer the run here - the better. Consider + 0,25 AH for Rubin. I am not touching the Swansea game. Napoli have many options to rotate, they can win, but the the absolute focus is catching up with Roma in Italy. Swansea are not safe yet, but surely they will give a good fight to Napoli in the first leg. My guess is Under 3 Goals, Draw at HT, and possibly a narrow win by Napoli. If forced to bet I would look for a surpise Draw here, but I will pass for now. No Bet. Another possible banana skin is the game in Esbjerg. The team was in a difficult group, got through and had a good preparation period during the break. Fitness is beyond doubt to me, and playing at that small ground ( I enjoyed myself there ) is not a walk in the park. Viola do not convince me recently, and a visit to a dangerous Parma team is coming next. Looking for H'cap options backing Esbjerg here and both to score. -
Re: Europa League > Thursday February 20th Can't see Betis a favourite at home vs Rubin. The Spanish Team in a desperate fight to stay in Primera, with a CL contender visit at the weekend ( Bilbao ). The Russians are a hard working team, with killer counters, and solid defence. Rubin is in Europe for ages, both coach and majority of players have great experience in Europa League and CL. Last thing Betis needs now is a distraction from the league, rotation is certain, motivation and morale - doubtful for such a game. Another relegation for the Sevilla team is close, but I think they will fight hard all the way. Europe comes second as a proirity, while to Kazan the longer the run here - the better. Consider + 0,25 AH for Rubin. I am not touching the Swansea game. Napoli have many options to rotate, they can win, but the the absolute focus is catching up with Roma in Italy. Swansea are not safe yet, but surely they will give a good fight to Napoli in the first leg. My guess is Under 3 Goals, Draw at HT, and possibly a narrow win by Napoli. If forced to bet I would look for a surpise Draw here, but I will pass for now. No Bet. Another possible banana skin is the game in Esbjerg. The team was in a difficult group, got through and had a good preparation period during the break. Fitness is beyond doubt to me, and playing at that small ground ( I enjoyed myself there ) is not a walk in the park. Viola do not convince me recently, and a visit to a dangerous Parma team is coming next. Looking for H'cap options backing Esbjerg here and both to score.
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Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 18th
I hear you about Man.City's home record.It is impressive.But it is valid only in Uk.I rate Barcelona to be many levels above the best team in UK right now.We have seen through the past years city's perfomance in Europe and in the Premier league.They beat every team in the league but when it comes to Champ League' date='things become different.I think tonight things are gonna get ugly for City.Their fortress is going to be destroyed and the myth for City being unstoppable at home-busted.The only possible hope for City not being exposed is that there is 2nd leg and Barcelona doesn't need to win the 1st at all cost.I remember Manchster United-Barcelona final a couple of years back when United were still on top form and Rooney scored the 1st goal.Then it was Barclona who stepped ahead.Manchester just couldn't handle the midfield and after Barcelona's equalizer we saw just how big is the gap between Barcelona and the other teams.Tonight we shall see a replay of that game.I am gonna risk a little bit more and take a long shot with Barcelona -1AH @3.55.I am not fully convinced that the Spaniards will go out firing on all cylinders but i am willing to take that risk.Small bet on Correct score 1:3 and 0:2 @ 17 and 13 with bet365[/quote'] Well done ! -
Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 18th
There was a clear faul on Navas before the penalty position' date=' also it was't penalty, was out of the box. Enough of those bloody midgets, can't win a fcking game without a referee help.[/quote'] I don't think that is a fair comment. Foul on Navas or not, penalty or not, the game was 60 or more % set for a Barca win, with this City approach. Two mistakes and a bit of a mess in the penalty area thanks to Valdez was all City did in the first half. Hosts only decided to go forward in the second half, as it should have been from the start. Unless Pellegrinni was going for a Levante approach parking up the bus - he did neither. Clearly with forwards like Negredo and Dzeko ( both a bit clumsy ) City is easy to ''read'', and beat. Apparently the midget of City Aguero could have been the difference, if fit. I don't think Barca needed a help from the ref to win this and many more games, a biased thinking about a great team. As of the midgets in FC Barcelona - my guess is that you are on about Xabi, Messi, Iniesta and Fabregas, you are not fair either. Any team woud be blessed to have them, the number of Cups they won for Barca ( and Spain ) speaks for itself. My guess is that their joint market value is in the range of 200+ million...Small guys, yet huge value and skills. ...not to mention another midget - Don Diego of Argentina. -
Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 18th
Have to score 2 goals? If that's the case than they better go for ''have to score 3 or 4'' like Bayern did. I wonder what Barca thinks about this ''have to''? It would have been easier with Aguero, but with Dzeko and Negredo, who are a typical forwards stuck deep in the penalty area - doubtful... I agree though that it is more likely ( if any ) the City goals to come from the midfield, but again Toure would be my last choice, the guy will be too busy helping at the back IMO. If you got bets like these, I am wishing you luck, you will certainly need it...Irrespective of the result' date=' City [b']have to score at the very least 2 goals here. So city to score 2 is a very good bet. In their important matches, yaya Toure almost always shows up. Against Barca it would be a good bet to pick him to score. -
Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 18th Betting in the knock out stage, and especially on the first game is too risky. Let alone on this particular game. To be honest I think regardless of the scoreline today City will feel more relaxed at Camp Nou than today. I only see one small H'cap for Barca in this game - the Manager has no experience in CL, and this counts here big time. Everything else with Barca looks good. Messi getting back to his usual level, Neymar back in the game with a bang, Valdes enjoying a great season, the midfield just as good as ever, Alexis shaking off last year's nervous start, Pique, Adrianno often enough on the score sheet, Pedro in great form...I even started liking moments with Tello, although IMO he was the main culprit for waisting tons of chances vs Chelsea 2 years ago...IMO Barca is getting to a point when they will be almost unstoppable again. Barca simply belongs to CL, and simply belongs to the semifinals with these players... Can City oppose them while Barca still has few ''blank moments''? I wish they could, but I don't think the players have a CL winning spirit yet. Individually - yes maybe. As a team - doubtful. I love the work of Manuel Pellegrinni, who had magic moments with Villareal, a tiny team who was robbed of a CL Final in both games vs Arsenal. This same guy gave Man Utd the exit in the group stage, a very rare thing in the SAF era. Still, while in a small place like Villareal these achievements were taken as heroic, in City standards the demands are high, much higher. The investors want Euro recognition as early as possible, completely failing with Mancini. If Pellegrinni is given one more year of relaxed work, yes, possibly. Overall I see Barca prevailing on two games. Tonight - no idea. Man City will be suicadle to go blazing guns vs a very strong Barca. The visitors will never change their 30 passes approach in the midfield, waiting for a small gap. Pellegrinni's focus should on defense and midfield, Barca can settle for a draw, although they got all to win it if backs against the wall. I don't see Barca rushing forward either. I game to watch and enjoy, in hope of an early sparkle to open it up. Possible in-play for me, and strictly NO BET before the game... P.S. I see posts above for Over 3,5 Goals. I hope the tipsters are right - first I will enjoy a great game with goals, second - I might also have a bite of it on the in-play... GL all
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Re: La Liga > February 14th - 17th
Great analisys, thank you senk. Will follow on the Over 2,5, and on Goal/Goal with meduim stakes, adding a small stake one on Over 3,5 Goals. GL senkGreat game to watch tonight in Malaga when they host Real Sociedad. Both teams really need a win to get back on track cause their recent results weren't that great. Especially Malaga is struggeling for goals while they constantly concede too many. Again for this match they are without 3 really important defenders in the likes of : Eliseu, Sergio Sanchez and Jesus Gamez. Heavily weakened at the back again and it doesn't look good at the moment. They do welcome back some important players like Duda, Tissone, Weligton and Roque Santa Cruz to their squad. Good for them otherwise they would have to play a lot of youngsters. In the last 4 games Malage conceded 12 goals while they only scored 4 times. But at home they are often good for atleast one goal and since Sociedad is playing pretty offensively there will be chances tonight. This is their squad for tonight : Kameni, Weligton, Flávio, Antunes, Camacho, El Hamdaoui, Portillo, Santa Cruz, Iakovenko, P. Pérez, Tissone, Willy, Angeleri, Rescaldani, Duda, Amrabat, Samuel, Juanmi y Sergi Darder. In recent meetings between these two teams both teams almost always scored a goal or more so that's good for my bets. Real Sociedad had some tough fixtures lately due their CDR clashes with Barcelona and Atletico madrid away. So their last 4 games are not that important for this one, only shame for them was the 0-0 draw at home against Levante but those matches happen once in a while. Normally Real sociedad can rely on their firepower upfront and they are not that bad on their travels. 3-4-5 overall record with 15 goals scored and conceded 27 times!! That's too much for a team like Sociedad but It's good for us if you fancy goals tonight. They will miss 2 regulars Carlos Martinez and Agirretxe for this game but they welcome back important players Bergara and Inigo Martinez. This is their squad that travelled to Malaga. -Porteros
: Bravo, Zubikarai. -
Defensas
: Zaldua, Ansotegi, Mikel, Iñigo, José Ãngel. -
Medios
: Markel Bergara, Elustondo, Prieto, Pardo, Zurutuza, Canales. - Atacantes: Seferovic, Ifrán, Vela, Chory
Castro
, Griezmann. Still enough firepower in their squad with Vela and Griezmann and Seferovic as a striker. Their midfield is intact and only 1 missing in defense but they have proper replacements. At first glance I fancied Sociedad to get a win here due the missings Malaga has in their defense and I rate Sociedad as the better team this season but they leaked too many goals lately. I really think both teams will score tonight and this will be my main bet. From the last 15 games Sociedad only lost 3 times against top guns Barcelona, Atletico madrid and away at Villareal. 2 of those 3 games were in the cup. In la liga Sociedad is a dangerous side and their aim is European football again. They have beaten most of the other teams in this league except for Vallecano away and it will not surprise me if they will win again tonight. I have 3 bets for this game! Over 2.5 goals around 1.90 with medium stakes! Both teams to score with medium stakes around 1.70! Real sociedad to win with small stakes around 2.70! Goodluck all.
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Re: Serie A > february 14th - 17th Verona with 3 clean sheets all season so far, on top of the Over 2,5 Goals stats in the league, with only the top 4 teams scoring more goals at home than these guys. Torino are completely different team from the boring side that was coming back from Serie B twice. They have attacking options to consider, and I also see gaps in the center of the defense ( the game vs Bologna at home ). Both teams are in the upper part of the table, relaxed and enjoying a good season. IMO none of them wants to get involved in a ''fight'' over 4-5th place for Europa League, an absolute distraction and a ''killer'' to Italian teams. It is exactly teams like this who might decide the faith of the Big Boys later in the season - Torino took points from Lazio, Roma, Fiore, Verona gave hard time to some Euro contenders. I see an open game tonight, a bit of a sparkle is needed and the game could go way above 3 goals. Goal/Goal is only at 1,66, so instead I took with bet365 : Over 2,5 Goals at 2,025 with 7,5 units Over 3,5 Goals at 3,20 with 1,5 units Correct score 1-1 at 6,00 with 1,5 units Clearly 2-0 will cost me a lot, but I am willing to stake medium to high on this game. GL all P.S. It looks like one of my biggest bets on a single game so far - added Verona Team Goals Over 1,5 at the incredible 2,20. Only failed to do it vs Chievo, Roma, Napoli - two top teams and the local rival.
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Re: Serie A > february 14th - 17th A double with Juve and Roma makes all the sense in the world, at 1,52, bet365. The home win for Roma is ''pumped up'' a bit because of that hard trip they had midweek to Napoli, but RG men already proved themselves solid in all lines, with enough options and good replacements. Might not be a walk in the park vs Samp, but Home Win looks solid. Looking for a third game to make it a treble, most likely Anderlecht, taking the odds up to 1,83.
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Re: Serie A > february 14th - 17th I don't think the odds are set right in Genoa. Udine will always be a capable of delivering a surprise almost anywhere, but odds are suggesting they are favourites today by all numbers. Genoa + 0,25 AH is at 1,80. IMO these should be for Genoa + 0 AH. None of the teams ever had Euro ambitions, it was all about survival for both teams from the start, with the limited options they have. Staying in the league for both should be relatively easy too, but not because they produce some great games, rather the fact that at least 3 teams at the bottom look doomed. Udine's run in the Coppa is over and they will focus on safety in the league now, but that makes them no favourites today. Checked all the standard stats, checked last 10 games of each team, checked the Prediction Ratings - I see the home team taking at least a point today, and I see a game branded ''Under 2,5 Goals'' so I am not touching it.
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Re: Ligue 2 > February 14th - 17th At the first look Istres and Tours should both score, and it looks a high-scoring game statistically...Next one on my Over 2,5 list would be Chatearoux vs Troyes, and possibly a -1,5 AH with Dijon as a small stake one, as Bastia managed to keep it real tight away recently.
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Re: Serie A > February 3rd - 9th
Giving up posting for a while, all the way from Monday with Man City losing bets. Plenty of winning suggestions here to follow...With Torino odds dropping below 1,72 I see a better choice in Torino Over 1,5 Team Goals at 1,83 with bet365. Enough attacking power with the hosts to score 2 or more. Medium stake... GL P.S. Can't resist at HT - Over 4,5 Goals at 2,20 with medium stake and Over 5,5 at 5,00 with small stake. Game looks open enough, should be more goals, FINGERS CROSSED! -
Re: Serie A > February 3rd - 9th With Torino odds dropping below 1,72 I see a better choice in Torino Over 1,5 Team Goals at 1,83 with bet365. Enough attacking power with the hosts to score 2 or more. Medium stake... GL P.S. Can't resist at HT - Over 4,5 Goals at 2,20 with medium stake and Over 5,5 at 5,00 with small stake. Game looks open enough, should be more goals, FINGERS CROSSED!
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Re: Manchester City v Chelsea > Monday February 3rd I can see the trend is towards unders here, with the (rightfully so) idea that JM will be happy enough to get a point and will try to ''shut'' the game. Having Aguero out also adds to the under trend. I will go against the public here, as this could be a tight affair, but a goal ( or two ) in the first half could unleash hell. Both teams have good options forward plus midfielders who can score on any given day, plus CB who often take advantage of set pieces. I do not trust Chelsea diffense either way, a goal for City early enough will force JM to move his troups forward...This ground has seen so many goals that it will be no surprise if another goals feast. Over 2,5 Goals with 5,5 units, bet365 Over 3,5 Goals with 1,5 unit, bet365 Over 5,5 Goals with 1 unit, bet365 Red Card - Yes - local - 2 units GL all
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Re: La Liga > January 24th - 27th Agree with neilovan, but going a bit different way - Sociedad Team Goals Over 1,5 at 1,61 with medium to high stake. Bet 365.
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Re: Belgium > Jupiler Pro League > 2013/14
That's exactly why I check this thread, in hope a Belgium guy can help with useful info. The home win has gone up to 1,57, but the Asians are giving 1,825 for Brugge + 1 AH - I am very tempted, shame I didn't follow any info about the transfers here. I guess I will go blindly for this one... GLWhy such low odds on Anderlecht? Anderlecht v Club Brugge 1.5 4.00 5.50 I'm very tempted to go with X2 on this game, that is if nothings wrong on Brugge side. -
Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 24th - 26th I did small to medium stakes Over 2,5 Goals in Lyon at 1,85 and in Monaco at 2,00. OL can wrap up the Over on their own on a good day, but with Evian I won't be surprised to see the guest contributing as well. In Monaco I just follow the logic of the midweek game between OM and Nice - Marseille have issues at the back, yet they also have great attacking players. Small stake bet on Over 2 Goals at 1,90 in the last game, the Over is priced at 2,50, totally my kind of odds. Statistically whoever priced these odds is right, the game looks easily 0-0, 0-1. So did the bookmakers in Mexico ( both leagues ) last night... GL all
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Re: Ligue 2 > January 24th - 27th
Opposing bets of others is part of the betting, and I don't think Meatman is bothered who follows him and who is betting against him. He is not getting paid by us to provide tips, so his results mostly affect him. Those who are stupid to follow Meatman blindly are either new punters or ''sheep'' who just follow blindly. What Meatman does is he delivers his opinion, supported with excellent and correct team and other info, in 2 leagues! This is done here by him every week, for many years - check the number of his posts! Whether we follow his tips or oppose them, we all read the info he provides, and we all have in mind his opinion. If ( God forbid ) Meatman stops posting here, both French threads will be ''dead'' in 6 weeks. When I joined here there were 2 great tipsters in the German and Scandinavian threads, posting great stuff every week. The German and the Scandinavian parts of the forum were among the liveliest ones here, with 10 to 15 posts on each good game. All this is gone now...Give the man the credit he deserves, regardless whether you like his tips or not ! I also disagree with your comments about the league being boring. Less goals? Well, there even less goals in Argentina, but the league has some fantastic football. My explanation is that it is far from boring, I enjoy the tactical culture in both France and especially Argentina ( with a lot less goals ). Not to mention the fact that I bet on Overs, and ''catching a nice ''fat'' Over in France or Argentina at 2,50 odds ( or higher ) is much better, than a sloppy one in Holland at 1,55 odds. You like goals? You prefer EPL and other English leagues? Great, but statistically until today even Serie A in Italy has more goals per game average than EPL, not to mention Spain. No bad feeling, just my opinion in a forum...meat is good but this league is not good to betting. Today I played against your bets and I have profit. Knowledge very deep but results ? Don't worry green will back. Betting this league is typical gamble . I'm english soccer fan so this league is very boring for me without goals. It look like amateur league. -
Re: Ligue 2 > January 24th - 27th With Laval and Troyes always Over 2,5 Goals at tasty odds by bets365, Meatman's prediction support my choice. Medium stakes... JUST ADDED CRETEIL TO MY OVER LIST, MY FEELING SAYS THIS GAME CAN GO WELL ABOVE THE 3 GOALS NEEDED... GL
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Re: Ligue 2 > January 17th - 20th Mainly based on Meatman's write up plus some stats and having watched some teams, bet 365 odds, singles with medium stakes and Yankee with small stakes: Nimes Over 2 Goals Caen Over 2,5 Goals Chateauroux Over 2 Goals Nancy - 1 AH Playing a bit safe this time with Over 2 Goals, although I am pretty much sure the game in Nimes will go Over, just like the one in Chateauroux... GL all
Ligue 2 > February 21st - 24th
in French Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Ligue 2 > February 21st - 24th Looks like a tough week here, but on Friday night I see goals almost everywhere, except Arles and Auxerre...In all other five encounters I see at least one of my favourite ''overish'' teams here. Considering five Overs with small to medium stakes, plus a 4-game combo with BTTS in Tours, Niort, Troyes and Laval.