nicko
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Re: Borussia Dortmund v Juventus > Wednesday March 18th We may as well see a similar scenario to the one in Madrid last night, with ET. In any case what I see is an Over 2,5 Goals priced at 2,075 by the Asian line in bet365. My kind of choice, my kind of bet, medium to high stakes. Value bet by all my standards! I am not bothered what Dortmund do in Bundesliga, we are having a certain sitauation tonight, and value is with the Over. An attacking German team chasing a goal deficit against a very good Italian side, who already booked the title at home. No Italian team comes storming out regardless what happened in the first leg, and certainly not the best Italian team currently. So a steady, compact start from the guests, with one little detail in mind - Juve have yet to prove to me that they are a CL material, because regardless how dominant they are at home, in CL they are still not considered a serious contender. In other words they still look vulnerable to me... The game in Torino could have well ended 5-2, instead of 2-1 only. This time I see Dortmund leading the game, and if 1-0 (or more) up the first half they won't stop attacking - this is not Augsburg or FC Cologne (no offense to these teams!), it is the Champion of Italy, and trying to ''shut'' the game against Juve could be suicidal... Dortmund will go forward strong from the start IMO, a slow and patient approach is what most people expect, after all 1-0 will take them through. A surprise start is what Klopp needs and I think he will risk it, with ''all guns blazing''...Will Dortmund be able to score early enough and give us something of their fantastic performances against Real Madrid? I hope so, as my money is already on the Over! On 1X2 I would back Dortmund too, but I prefer the Over and GL to all tonight!
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday February 26th
Just covered myself on the Over in Kiev, a Home win is enough to me for the combo, especially if Dinamo Moscow hold on to their lead. Just the Goal/Goal in Fiore looks bad to me for now... The game in 'Gladbach can either turn into a bigger goal fiesta, or become a ''bloodbath'' with many Cards. For sure at HT will have a small punt on 2 more goals, Sevilla are a long-term Europe factor, a German team never gives up till the finals whistle...I follow these 2, adding Over 2,5 Goals in Salzburg at 1,60, expecting an open game from a home team always in attacking mood and dangerous guests. Added here also a smaller punt at Over 3,0 Goals at 1,975 with bet365. The minimum I expect here is 2-1, 2-2...or higher, Salzburg's streght forward is beyond doubts, so is their often ridiculous defending. Over 2,5 Goals in Napoli - at 1,625. The Turks defend so bad at this level, that Napoli can complete the Over on their own, despite expected rotations. Over 2,5 Goals in Lisbon - Sporting don't have time for calculations, after the result in the first leg, Wolsburg can score anywhere these days, although it is a bit of a mistery to me how Dost being clumsy as he is is scoring so often... Elsewhere I see both Russian teams winning their games, as well as Dinamo Kiev - the game in Ukraine looks very overish to me - hosts have to go forward, French teams in Europe more often than expected surpise everyone with goals. No idea how important to Kiev are the 2 players, red-carded in France, but that's 2 first-choice players missing either way. NO BET though, just had some in a combo. Both to score is what I expect in Fiorention, and had it in a combo. I also see a lot of Cards in Salzburg and possibly in M'Gladbach... GL all -
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday February 26th
I follow these 2, adding Over 2,5 Goals in Salzburg at 1,60, expecting an open game from a home team always in attacking mood and dangerous guests. Added here also a smaller punt at Over 3,0 Goals at 1,975 with bet365. The minimum I expect here is 2-1, 2-2...or higher, Salzburg's streght forward is beyond doubts, so is their often ridiculous defending. Over 2,5 Goals in Napoli - at 1,625. The Turks defend so bad at this level, that Napoli can complete the Over on their own, despite expected rotations. Over 2,5 Goals in Lisbon - Sportnig don't have time for calculations, after the result in the first leg, Wolsburg can score anywhere these days, although it is a bit of a mistery to me how Dost being clumsy as he is is scoring so often... Elsewhere I see both Russian teams winning their games, as well as Dinamo Kiev - the game in Ukraine looks very overish to me - hosts have to go forward, French team in Europe more often than expected surpise everyone with goals. No idea how important to Kiev are the 2 players, red-carded in France, but that's 2 first-choice players missing either way. NO BET though, just had some in a combo. Both to score is what I expect in Fiorention, and had it in a combo. I also see a lot of Cards in Salzburg and possibly in M'Gladbach... GL allClub Brugge v Aalborg Over 2.5 1.89 Everton v Young Boys Over 2.5 1.92 Both with 188Bet I usually prefer backing teams rather than goals (under or over), but I think goals are worth backing here. Both away sides lost badly in the home legs, meaning they need to score a lot of goals to go through. AaB lost 3-1, so they need to score at least three goals. Young Boys lost 4-1, so they need at least four. As Brugge and Everton are fairly strong home sides, I think goals are likely in both games, and overs are priced too high at the moment. Stake 3 points each Total stake: 6 points -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
Bless you, Berba for this second goal, to return my money in a weird game. Arsenal need a lot of luck to score at least one with less than 10 minutes to go...fingers crossed for another though. P.S. FT 1-3 :loon...I really hope this will reduce the number of tipsters here, who quote domestic league stats in order to make their reasoning...better no reasoning! Different League CL is...!In an overall underish game expected' date=' I will go against the public, with another ''safety bet'', medium to high stakes - [b']OVer 2 Goals at 1,575 bet365. I do not rule out Monaco scoring, and I also believe on a good day Arsenal can score in any CL game 2 or more goals... GL -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th In an overall underish game expected, I will go against the public, with another ''safety bet'', medium to high stakes - OVer 2 Goals at 1,575 bet365. I do not rule out Monaco scoring, and I also believe on a good day Arsenal can score in any CL game 2 or more goals... GL
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Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 24th
Jesus' date='Messi is a mor*n :ok[/quote'] Very unlucky, excellent ''reading'' of the game. Fingers crossed for you to make it next time! -
Re: Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday February 25th
Mandzukic ' date=' Arda Turan , Griezmann , Koke , Garcia some of the attacking qualities of Atletico Madrid .. with the likes of Arda and Griezmann Atletico will dominate and win this match comfortably .... Leverkusen on the other hand have Hakan Calhanoglu to be the most creative player ... they will be outclassed by Atletico players ...[/quote'] Not sure really, but I think Koke is injured for a longer period. I hope I am wrong, I really like his play... -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
I love your posts, sajtion :ok :loon, love the spirit! GLthe heck with arsenal i am going outright win for monaco. the price on them is very good and bookies are underestimating them. i love the underdogs and since they are probably best defensive team in europe they will be tough to beat. there is every chance they could score one goal and if they do first then arsenal are going to have tough time breaking them down. i don't buy this they can't score bullshit. they can score goals and i expect too. arsenal are more liability to me as they push players forward i am certain they will be caught out by monaco counter attacking wing play -
Re: Juventus v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 24th
Juventus to win here with handicaps' date=' maybe even without goal conceded. No value on Dortmund, especially not in a season like this, Juve will certainly look to finish them off in 1st game, that seems oblivious.[/quote'] With the ease they win titles in Italy, Juventus being a ''power'' yet again is what we all expected last year, right? And they failed us all, showing in the Group how far they were from the CL standards and the likes of Real Madrid, Barca, Bayern... NO BET on 1x2, I see at least 2 goals here though. I do not trust much with the defenses of both team, which is good enough for Over 2 goals for safety... GL -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
Now we speak the same language, the 6 out of 6 Unders for Monaco in the Group is what makes me stay away from the game, not their results in the French League. I also see Monaco becoming more defensive because they limited their attacking options, and compensate with strong focus at the back...Not very aggresive in the transfer period, right? They do not have the powerful ''penetration'' they had forward last season, when I saw many good attacking games from them...The stats in French League were only to explain the reasoning that even against big teams, Monaco are a typical Under 2.5 and very steady at the back. If you knew me around, you would know that I usually reject a stats analysis per se. What matters about the stats is why they happen. And they happen because Monaco are a defensive team, and besides being one, they have a manager that knows how to build the defensive process. Different competitions, of course, I also said that. But don't you think Monaco will give 150% here? And what about the fact that they only conceded once in 6 matches, and against teams with big offensive potential? It is just an opinion. I stated it is not an official pick and I expect Monaco to make it very hard to Arsenal. Yes, you could also be right and it could end 3-0 and sometimes teams like Arsenal, when they are on their best and if especially Sanchez and Cazorla are up for it, Monaco has absolutely no chance. But I recognize there is some value in Arsenal + Unders 2.5, that's what I just calling ;) -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
You are the second tipster here who makes his prediction on this game based on the French League. Why? It is a different level, different tactics, different teams in CL. Don't tell us to check the stats in France, me and many more know these stats, but they are irrelevant here mostly... Yes, Monaco is steady at the back, yes, the game looks underish...I don't need to check any French stats, I know Monaco did 6 out of 6 Unders in the group stage of CL this Season. For these stas I stay away from this game, and will only follow it in-play. Yet will it be a big surprise to the footballing world if Arsenal win this game 3-0, 3-1, given enough space and time during the game? I won't be, just as I posted above, Arsenal are in CL forever (almost) and I have seen them thrashing bigger and better organized teams... GL tomorrowIf you check the standings you will also see that Monaco is the best defence of Ligue 1 on par with Lyon, first placed. Only 19 goals conceded in 25 matches. For the Champions League away they faced tough opposition and only conceded one goal in the whole group stage! Against Benfica (1-0) and were unlucky not to have drawn that one. Against tough opposition in Ligue 1, they drew against PSG away (1-1), St. Etienne (1-1) and lost against Lyon (1-2). Their bigger loss was against Bordeaux (1-4) but it was the second match of the season and Leonardo Jardim was still testing the team and defensive process was still not good enough. And honestly, except the two main CBs (Abdennour and Ricardo Carvalho) and GK Subasic, the fullbacks other players aren't really that good (although Fabinho is doing a heck of a season). The manager is really good in deploying defensive formations and processes, I consider himself world class actually. I mean, he had a defensive line last season that consisted of Jefferson, Mauricio (awful CB, now on Lazio, did a blunder this week), Rojo (good player but a bit overrated) and Cedric (awful defensively) and guess what? We ended up with the best defence of the league. Take for example last match. Monaco played 45 minutes with 10 players, and even managed to score on the 84th minute and won! I said it before and I will say it again: this could be a very, very tricky round for Arsenal. Everyone said Monaco would end 4th in their group, they ended up 1st! If Arsenal shows up thinking that this is done and dusted, they might as well go off in the 1/8s. I still think Arsenal will go through but this will not be that goal-friendly as it seems. Let's see if my guessing is right. -
Re: Arsenal v AS Monaco > Wednesday February 25th
It is almost irrelevant how 18 or 180 games have gone for any team in different competitions. This is CL, a totally different competition, where quoting league or domestic cup results is simply a joke - we know these results as we all bet in the respective leagues too. And I have seen many ''tight'' teamS being absolutely pulverized by Arsenal...in the Champions League. Often enough... Surely Monaco will try to keep it tight, surely this could be a 1-0, 2-0 low scoring game, but surely not because of the reasoning you give us here... I see the game with Wenger looking for an early start and a goal. If this happens, he won't rush his guys, gradually they will build up for a second, as a 2-0 win is an almost certain qualifier. Therefore your pick makes sense. Yet NO BET for me, in-play only. This is the game I will watch on that night, because given an extra inch of space, and with the pace they can create at certain moment, Arsenal can complete the Over themselves. And who says Monaco can not score? NO BET...Under 2.5 @ 1.8 seems like a good bet for me. Monaco away games has only gone over 2.5 twice in 18 away games this season. -
Re: Manchester City v FC Barcelona > Tuesday February 24th 4 of the world's finest strikers in City tonight, and some great midfielders as well. It will be a surprise if it is a low-scoring affair. Over 2,5 Goals at 1,725 with bet365, medium to high stake. GL
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Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 20th - 23rd Wrong time for Almeria to visit Calderon, Atletico will react fiercly after losing to Celta. Plenty of time to recover, more options for Madrid. Atletico Madrid - 2AH - 2 points @ 2,025 First Half H'cap - Madrid - 1AH @ 3,25 - 1 point First Half Goals - Over 1,5 @ 2,37 - 1 point Over 3,0 Goals - @ 2,025 - 2 points
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Re: Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea > Tuesday February 17th
Zlatan is one of the greatest players of the current generation, I don't see why he needs a chance to shine... Ibra will do his best as a proffesional, in a big game, simple as that. If we are lucky (and he is as well), we might enjoy another magic by a player, who gave us all so much fun and great moments on the field...and off the pitch too :-)...Ibra is a big game player and this is his chance to shine.... -
Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 13th - 16th
Excellent reasoning' date=' been considering it myself, too., but I wasn't sure enough. In the 89th minute it seems like the better decision was a nobet. Tyton saved a couple of total shockers. You deserved at least the void.[/quote'] Bet is lost - that's what matters. Elche allowed 19 shots on and off target, they did ''their bit for the society'' by scoring first and early enough, yet bet is lost. I had the same thoughts on over-priced Overs in Brest and in the game with Korona Kielce involved yesterday (seen the team many times, always good to risk with an Over with them). Unfortunately 1 winner, 1 void and the highest bet lost doesn't make me a winner for the day... -
Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 13th - 16th Eibar - Elche There's something really interesting about this game tonight. Over 2,5 Goals is at 2,70 at the moment with bet365!? Over 2 is at 2,05, Over 1,5 Goals is at 1,55... These odds are higher than the opening odds for most Argentinian games, higher than the odds in the CL game in Milan between Inter and Chelsea a couple of years ago. Clearly a 0-0, 1-0 is expected, right? Decided to check soccervista and soccerway for stats and found out Eibar's home games this season. They average 1,4 goals scored at home and 1,7 conceded per game. Yes, the results include a loss from Real Madrid 0-4 and a loss from Atletico Madid 1-3 (no shame is Spain to lose these 2 games), yet the stats are not bad at all...Both top-scores of the team available tonight. Statistically the team is rated 11 out of 20 in the Over scale, with 3,1 goals per game at home. Take out the games against Real and Atletico, and Eibar are still having the same average home stats as Sevilla, Villareal, Espanyol, Rayo and Elche... With Elche away the situation is similar, they average 3 goals to/against in their away games, which takes them to 5th position in the Over scale. They score 0,9 goals away, and concede 2,1, average. True - these numbers include a couple of high-scoring losses. True, they had 1-0 and 0-0 on the board on several cases. Still, stats are not that bad either. 2 out of 3 highest-scoring players available...Elche having the second-worst defence in La Liga... How I see the game tonight? Elche are clearly coming out for a point, with very tight formation. 0-0 or 1-1 would be great for them. Eibar? I see them openly going for a win here. They are at 2-3-3 in the last 7 home games, including the losses I mentioned above vs the Madrid teams, a loss by a single goal from Valencia, two draws vs team similar to Elche - Levante ( 3-3 ) and Granada ( 1-1 ), and two wins with 2-1 vs Getafe and 5-2 vs Almeria - both teams statistically similar to Elche, and with only Levante having conceded more goals than Elche in Primera ( 43 against 42 ). Head to Head - I only found two games that finished 1-0 between these two, with 1-1 and 2-1 most common. Eibar is the better team, had a rough patch at home vs top 6 teams recently, and I see a 2-0 or 2-1 win by the home team tonight. Risks? Just as high as any other game in the top leagues you go for an Over IMO. If Elche manage to keep it 0-0 by HT the Over bet will be almost lost. A goal in the FH will ''open'' the game and very likely make it a winner. In any case odds are crazy considering all said above. Pure value from every angle...I am taking Over 2 goals at 2,05 for safety with medium stake and wishing you all GL
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Re: Bundesliga > February 13th - 15th I see goals in Hoffenheim, Bremen and surely in Frankfurt. The game of Leverkusen will show how good this Wolfsburg team really is, as posted above, but I rather watch and get involved in-play. I have four in-play bets at the moment in lower German leagues, will post reasoning later! GL all
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Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > February 13th - 16th
Risky... A win is a win, and that's exactly what Real needs now, regardless of the margin. Clearly in the past 2 games (Sevilla and Atletico) huge gaps were opened at the back, which any decent team can take advantage of. Scoring against Real really isn't that difficult, not that many clean sheets for the team topping the table. It has always been a mistery to me how come a decent Italian Manager allows this...It is where the focus should be in the future with Real, they have no issues in the front... High-scoring game - always likely with Real Madrid, Huge H'cap as you suggest - not worth it at these odds IMO...Both to score at 2,10 is value considering what we have seen recently. Wish you luck though!Real Madrid (-2.5 and -3) to beat Deportivo La Coruna @ 1.934 Pinnacle You'd expect a reaction from Real after the game against Atletico, particularly as Barca are now hot on their heels and likely to pick up three points in their game this weekend. Deportivo have won their last two matches which has moved them away from the relegation zone, but despite having built up some momentum it's hard to see them staying with a Real side that are solid at home and have plenty of goals in them regardless of injuries. -
Re: Real Madrid v Liverpool > Tuesday November 4th
A win is a win. Toure - man of the match, or the goalie, regardless. My Over - lost...See no ''conspiracy here, with the game being the highlight of the night...on paper :-)Funny result again while the whole world was on a big madrid win. Sponsored by :-) -
Re: FC Basel v Ludogorets Razgrad > Tuesday November 4th I have opposed and had some critics with Borisof here previously regarding Ludogorets, but had to give himn the credit for a good write up about the reverse game in Sofia - his suggestion was Over 2,5 Goals, and the Over was almost certain IMO. Or at least Goal/Goal. The red card early in the game literaly ''killed'' all the attacking qualities of both sides. From here a good suggestion went in the drain, but the comment here was good. Basel tried to shut every gap, the game at some points looked ugly and at no point it was entertaining. Long range efforts, hussle and bussle in the box, and a couple of weak semi-counters by Basel. A lucky yet great goal give the win to the Bulgarian team in the injury time, but I was bored. I agree again with Borisof that the odds for the HW are set right tonight, with Basel clear favourites. And the risk backing the home team is worth a shot in cash... I will not bet again here though - just can't get out of my mind a game by Ludogorets this same time last year, away to PSV, a team which by quality I rate just as high as Basel. Ludogorets are very well organized at the back, and if they score first, the later - the better, I am not sure Basel will be able to reply, let alone turn the game. And the further the game goes on, the more exposed Basel will be in the end, when Ludogorets might as well finish them with a second (the PSV scenario). Another bad scenario is is 0-0 for a longer part of the game - again, Ludogorets will become more dangerous with killer-counters, while Basel will get more and more frustrated and exposed. Of course an early goal by Basel could end in a demolishing the Bulgarians, but yet again Ludogorets are not the kind of team who goes with 10 men forward if they are a goal down, as the game at Anfield proved few weeks ago. And they can score... NO BET and good luck all, I would go for Cards in this one, but I see better games tonight, with potentially huge in-play opportunities.
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Re: Real Madrid v Liverpool > Tuesday November 4th As everyone is looking at higher H'caps, I will simply go for Over 3,5 goals with medium to high stakes, and Over 4,5 goals with smaller ones. I mean beating the -2 AH is so close to Over 3,5 goals that I see it as a better options. As much as I enjoy Real's game at the moment, I believe that any decent team can score against them. They simply outscore...big.
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Re: Juventus v Olympiacos > Tuesday November 4th Juventus might as well win this one comfortably, but everything they showed in CL this year and last season is pointing that they can not be trusted to beat higher H'caps. Last year in CL was a disaster, and it all started with huge expectations. I am afraid a similar scenario is on the cards, Olympiacos are no mugs, and they are in CL forever, with good selection, beaming with confidence. I see them coming out for a point, with tight, destructive approach in order to frustrate Juve from the start. No way I will trust an Italian team in CL soon and big, at joke odds, vs a decent side. Wishing luck to all Juve fans, NO BET for me, except possibly Cards - anything above 1,70 for Over 4,5 Cards or 2,00 for Over 5,5 is value IMO in this game... GL
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Re: Ajax v FC Barcelona > Wednesday November 5th
Celta is by no means a mediocre team. I wonder how many games of Celta you watched|? I did many, including pre-season ones. The fact that they took 3 points at Camp Nou speaks for itself. Ajax won? Well, this was a surprise, right? Against a team most likely to get relegated, playing with 10 men for great part of the game, away to the Arena...Massive!? Both domestic games are absolutely irrelevant to the CL fixture tonight! CL is a different show, and many under- or overperform here. Dortmund rings a bell?Any thoughts about this one ? Barcla lost against a medieocre Celta and Ajax won at home ?
Europa League ~ Thursday October 22nd
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
I wouldn't touch either game in the group with Spurs. To me this is the toughest group at this stage, with a lot of quality in it, and despite rotations.
A strong double to me would be Fiorentina and Villareal to win. The current gap is huge as footballing merits. In the case of Lech, a legendary Polish club, IMO their absolute priority is the domestic league, with a terrible start. The Polish play-off system doesn't write off any team despite being rock-bottom when play offs start, I have seen Korona Kielce staying in the top flight despite a horrible season. Yet Lech look horrible at the moment, toothless forward and shaky at the back. Fiore don't need to push much to win this one comfortably. Villareal dropped points in Viena, the game could have gone either way, can't see any upset here again with a huge difference in class. Both games could be risked with a -1,5 Hçap as singles, at least one coming up will pay off, but I rather pair them at the odds for a straight win. Must have been a strong bet somewhere, or thing we don't know, but Fiore rose from 1,20 to 1,36...
I see goals in Vienna again, with 2 clearly attacking sides. Either a ''heavy bet'' on the low-priced Over 2,5, or a risky Over 3,5 with moderate stakes.
In-play I am always watching all games with French teams involved, in Europe they produce often high-scoring games at great odds (which are reflecting the low-scoring domestic league and therefore not justified). Other games to watch for goals in-play are the one in Belgrade, with Partizan always in attacking mood at home, yet often doing childish mistakes in defence, which Bilbao can take advantage of....plus Legia Warshawa vs Bruuge - an early goal here could make the game a very high-scoring one. Alkmaar and Augsburg could also mean many goals, the Germans with two games lost will open up a bit more than they usually do - Augsburg have always been ''conservative'' team to me forward for the German standards, and with AZ involved the game is a potential Over 3,5 one...
GL all