PinPointPrecision
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Hello fellow punters, I'm going to continue Hodgey's idea of finding value correct score lays. I will be using both betbrain and oddschecker to find reasonably priced lays. I'm hoping for a 5 to 10 percent yield but more then anything I'm hoping my results can be used in further support of Hodgey's results that a small profit can be made. I will be using betfair to place all my bets and will include a 5% commission charge in my total P/L. So here goes my first lays, hope I get off to a good start! :ok
Match Score Layed Lay Odds Stake Liability Total P/L Liverpool Vs. Porto 2-0 6.8 4 23.2 Lazio Vs. Olympiacos 1-1 7.6 4 26.4 Rosenborg Vs. Chelsea 0-1 7 4 24 Blackburn Vs. Aston Villa 1-1 7.2 4 24.8 -
Hello TPL Forum dwellers, :cheers This is my first post here so be easy! I come here seeking answers after finding disturbing discrepancies in the RFO's (Racing Football Outlook) true odds and outlook index. I wanted to create a betting system revolved around finding value bets by using their 'true odds' predictor, they claim it's based on their outlook index. The outlook index for those who are not familiar with the RFO format is a list of teams in every league they cover giving each team a rating for strength both home away. So in theory it is easy to compare teams from any division in any league playing either home or away. So my thoughts for a betting system were initially like this: Bet small amounts on many long shots that had pay outs significantly higher on betfair then the RFO predicted the true odds to be. Going through the numbers though show that the RFO true odds seem to have an alarmingly low correlation with their outlook index and the outlook index has little to do with anything else. For example this weekend: Blackburn (Home) 896 Vs. Reading (Away) 829. A difference of 67 points, Reading's true odds to win 5.21 Stoke City (Home) 849 Vs. Sheffield Wednesday (Away) 814. A difference of 35 points, Sheffield Wednesday's true odds to win 5.44 Dundee Utd. (Home) 802 Vs. Livingston (Away) 754. A difference of 48 points, Livingston's true odds to win 5.21 But here comes the really shocking numbers: :loon Mansfield [bottom of league 2] (Home) 727 Genoa [5th in Serie a] (Away) 718 ???!!!! Ummm no disrespect to Mansfield but I doubt they are better then Genoa even if they are playing at home. My question is are there any punters here who use the RFO and know more precisely how they calculate both the outlook index and the true odds. Seems to me that putting blind faith in these numbers would serve to lose you money at quite a rate. Anyone have any suggestions of something more accurate to use for finding value football longshots? Thank for reading... :clap
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Hello TPL Forum dwellers, :cheers This is my first post here so be easy! I come here seeking answers after finding disturbing discrepancies in the RFO's (Racing Football Outlook) true odds and outlook index. I wanted to create a betting system revolved around finding value bets by using their 'true odds' predictor, they claim it's based on their outlook index. The outlook index for those who are not familiar with the RFO format is a list of teams in every league they cover giving each team a rating for strength both home away. So in theory it is easy to compare teams from any division in any league playing either home or away. So my thoughts for a betting system were initially like this: Bet small amounts on many long shots that had pay outs significantly higher on betfair then the RFO predicted the true odds to be. Going through the numbers though show that the RFO true odds seem to have an alarmingly low correlation with their outlook index and the outlook index has little to do with anything else. For example this weekend: Blackburn (Home) 896 Vs. Reading (Away) 829. A difference of 67 points, Reading's true odds to win 5.21 Stoke City (Home) 849 Vs. Sheffield Wednesday (Away) 814. A difference of 35 points, Sheffield Wednesday's true odds to win 5.44 Dundee Utd. (Home) 802 Vs. Livingston (Away) 754. A difference of 48 points, Livingston's true odds to win 5.21 But here comes the really shocking numbers: :loon Mansfield [bottom of league 2] (Home) 727 Genoa [5th in Serie a] (Away) 718 ???!!!! Ummm no disrespect to Mansfield but I doubt they are better then Genoa even if they are playing at home. My question is are there any punters here who use the RFO and know more precisely how they calculate both the outlook index and the true odds. Seems to me that putting blind faith in these numbers would serve to lose you money at quite a rate. Anyone have any suggestions of something more accurate to use for finding value football longshots? Thank for reading... :clap
Another Lay Correct Score Thread!
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Another Lay Correct Score Thread! So here are tonights results: