tipstar
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Re: RFO index Muppet Try using this with RFO ratings h/d/a from past issues to see if they show any price similarity with what you get. :) here
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Re: black book Lubet
Monday 05/04/04 2.40 Windsor Handicap (class E) 4.30 Southwell Classified Stakes (class E) If your correct Only if I Laugh should run in one of these on MondayI have a black book and only if i laugh is going in to it Should have won to-day by the rails & all.I smell a rat, horse held back watch for next time running at better odds!Different odds better horse! -
Re: Help with Poisson calculation, please Dosh you may want to play around with this for a while until you get your own sheet set up Poisson
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Re: Help with Poisson calculation, please Odds ,Madmick The poisson calcs are correct, it is the number of games this season which are distorting the figures. Rangers home played 4 GF 16 GA 3 Celtic away played 4 GF 5 GA 2 Rangers ave = Rangers GF 16 + Celtic GA 2 = 18/tot no of games 4h+4a = 2.25 Celtic ave = Celtic GF 5 + Rangers GA 3 = 8/tot no of games 4h+4a= 1 Rangers 4-3 = 0.69% 4-2 = 2.07% 4-1 = 4.14% 4-0 = 4.14% 3-2 = 3.68% 3-1 = 7.36% 3-0 = 7.36% 2-1 = 9.81% 2-0 = 9.81% 1-0 = 8.72%.....R/total = 57.78 DRAW 0-0 = 3.88% 1-1 = 8.72% 2-2 = 4.91% 3-3 = 1.23% 4-4 = 0.17%....D/total = 18.91 CELTIC 3-4 = 0.31% 2-4 = 0.41% 1-4 = 0.36% 0-4 = 0.16% 2-3 = 1.64% 1-3 = 1.45% 0-3 = 0.65% 1-2 = 4.36% 0-2 = 1.94% 0-1 = 3.88%.....C/total = 15.16 Rangers win % = (57.78/91.85)*100 = 62.90% Draw % = (18.91/91.85)*100 = 20.58% Celtic win % = (15.16/91.85)*100 = 16.50% The %age may be slightly out to my s/sheet as this rounds up the no's to 2 decimal places. also the total divisor (is that the correct name?) will not be 100 as I stop each calc at 4-3 for home and away and 4-4 for draws which causes a slight error .
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Re: Help with Poisson calculation, please Dosh "The probability of a team scoring X goals" where Lambda (l) is the average number of goals scored by the team, e is a mathematical constant (2,718 and X! is X faculty (X multiplied with all real numbers between 1 and X - e.g. 5 faculty = 5*4*3*2*1 or 7 faculty = 7*6*5*4*3*2*1) Example: Let's say that the average number of goals scored by Barcelona is 3,1, and we want to calculate the probability of them scoring 2 goals: p(2) = 3,1^2 * e^-3,1 / 2! = 0,216 The probability is then 21,6%. The fact that we are able to calculate probabilities of a team scoring x goals gives us the opportunity to predict the exact goal scoring for each team. Let's do another example: Arsenal meet Liverpool at Highbury: Arsenal lambda (average goals per game) = 1,8 Liverpool lambda = 1,6 We want to calculate the probability of the result 1-1: First we calculate the probability of Arsenal scoring 1 goal using the poisson formula showed above = 29,8 % We do the same with Liverpool, and find 32,3 % We now multiply these two numbers = 9,6 % In order to predict for instance the home win probability, you simply add up the percentage of all probable home win results (1-0, 2-0, 2-1 etc.). Lambda The main problem is to calculate the lambda value, i.e. the average number of goals scored by the team. It must be an average value of goals scored by the team and goals conceded by the opponent.
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Re: Question? Kojic Here is a simple poisson calculator which will give you a basic Home % draw % away % It is much better to set up your own spreadsheet if you intend to find out the %'s for all the leagues. poisson calculator
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Maclean The Maclean formula was written for horse racing and betting on the tote for place only which allows you to put your full stake on a place only bet rather than split it for an e/w bet therefore being able to take lower priced horses. The rest of the formula is a sort of running acca but still using a fixed stake from your original bank where as the more consecutive winners you get the greater the return is increased compered to normal fixed stake betting. The bonus part of it is if you get to say 6 wins on the trot and the seventh looses you still end up in profit even though the seventh part of your running acca has gone down. When this happens you then start the sequence again from bet 1. The formula can be used for any type of betting horses/football etc because I use it myself and have had some very good returns but it is NOT something that will make you rich overnight, as with any form of gambling it takes time and patience and of course good selections.
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Got your mail ,cheers Just to say the odds of evens were only an example as shown in the book . The odds I'm using are between 1.44 > 1.80 so runs of 5 & 6 can be achieved,even had 7 once :eek using top rated in poisson only. I;ll continue untill the end of the season to see how it goes. Also trying it for place only on the horses at the tote, should see me through the barren spell of no football in the summer. Tried to mail you but mailers down again for some reason. :(
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bet odds In your 84 bets you have Dumbarton 2-1* team x 2-2 (non runner) Dumbarton 2-1* Team x 2-1 (non runner) when you place your bet the above bets are classed as 1 double per bet regardless of whether the bets are interlinked each bet is regarded as a separate bet Therefore with team X being a non runner you get paid out on both separate doubles, hope this makes sense.
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Re: ?? Suit yourself its not me thats lost any money ;)
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Re: r.e Oddsagainst Joe I think you have been sold short on this bet the non runner bets are classed as singles on any winner therefore you have Dumbarton @ 16/1* 2-2 n/runner = £17 Dumbarton @ 16/1* 2-1 n/runner = £17 total to be returned £34. If you only put on £81 then you will have 0.96p going on each double....... Dumbarton @ 16/1 *0.96p * 2-2 n/runner = £16.32p Dumbarton @ 16/1 *0.96p * 2-1 n/runner = £16.32p total to be returned £32.64p
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Re: SIXTENFOURTEEN 2002 :eek
Monitoring Horse Racing online
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Monitoring Horse Racing online Try totesport they have live tote prices up to the off