Datapunter
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Posts posted by Datapunter
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Re: Money management on sports betting ?
There can be only one response to that... Good luck :okn this forum there is a lot of backtesting. It was a positive edge in the backtesting I meant. Even then it's not guaranteed in future bets but it is a good start. -
Re: Money management on sports betting ?
It must be nice to be a fortune teller. You don't know your edge until after you've placed a long series of bets, and even that does not mean the positiveness will continue in future, that is the whole point of having a staking plan and thus managing your bank. Any talk about risk and money management is a moot point when a positive edge exists, the problem is that such edge is never guaranteed.You shouldn't ever do any bets without a positive edge -
Re: Money management on sports betting ? Not reducing stake will make little difference as long as you have a positive edge, but when it goes negative you will go banckrupt a lot faster. Let's say your stake is 10% of your bank. Reducing the stake after a loss means you can have a long losing streak and still be able to continue. Sure, your bank will reduce in size significantly but that happens with a losing streak whatever staking applied. ( in fact start with 100, bet 10% and lose 10 times and you have 34.86 left ) Not reducing your stake means you only need 1 losing streak of 10 bets and it's all gone. In fact a couple of shorter losing streaks in a row will do the same. It doesn't matter if you only bet 1% of your bank. The risk is the same, just the timescale gets longer. Once your edge flips negative, even if it's temporarily, you go down faster. So not reducing may provide a little more profit but you do pay a price in increased risk. Which brings it back to a matter of choice, as long as you choose the risk as well.
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Re: Money management on sports betting ?
There is no answer, there will be little or no difference long term so it's basically a matter of choice. Look at the practical side of things. If you have multiple bets open at the same time then you cannot recalculate for bet to bet. You have no choice but to maintain the same stake size for a while. Given that let's say you do most your betting in the weekend. Then i would calculate the stake before the weekend and stick with it throughput the weekend, recalculate for the next week and then the next weekend and so on. That way you only have to think about it twice a week and can spend more time on your selections. Twice a week or bet by bet really won't make a difference long term so might as well choose which is most practical.Problem is, I do not know when is the optimal time to recalculate my % bet size,based on my changing bankroll. Should I recalculate it after every bet, based on my new bankroll every time, should I wait till the end of a specific time period (i.e one week or one month) to recalculate my bet size, or should I wait until my bankroll reaches a specific amount (x2 or x3 the initial bankroll) ? -
Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair
You do not understand the concept of "true odds" nor the concept of "value betting" which is why your whole reasoning is nonsensical. You do not, and never will, know what the 'true odds' on a selection are therefore you have no idea if you have positive or negative value, including commission. You can only know if your betting is profitable by examining your long term record and getting confirmation that on average you make a profit. (or not) You cannot determine that in any way based on the individual bets.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I don't think you quite understand how making money from free bets works. 1) You cannot turn a free bet offer into cash 100%, at best you'll end up with about 70% of it. 2) Have you actually made a list of 50 bookmakers and checked the offers including all terms and conditions ? You'll find quite a few restrictions making only 35-40 available to you, assuming you live in the UK, for other countries only half will be available at best. 3) You'll lose some cash in exchange rates and transfer fees, not to mention the 'human error' factor. 4) And most importantly where do you get the idea its X amount per YEAR ??? 90% of offers are for new accounts, once in a lifetime. Only a handfull of bookmakers have recurring free bets or bonussus and again you must check the terms and conditions as usually there are things like account must be 0 and lifetime result must be negative, i.e. a losing account in order to get new bonussus. If you hit bad luck where a bookmaker needs to payout instead of the exchange and that's the end of the line with that bookmaker. So... if you are new to sportsbetting you can use free bets and matched betting to build a betting bank and i'd say you can get over 1000 pounds pure profit, maybe even 1500 or 2000 for the die-hards. But then that's it.
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Re: Flat Betting Vs Progressive: Explanation needed
No, there isn't. You may make more profit short term but it is in fact an illusion. You got lucky. Although you make more profit the risk of losing everything is bigger. In other words with flat staking say you make a profit half the time. Use progressive staking and the times you make a profit you'll make more compared to flat staking. But you'll only do that say 25% of the time, the other 75% you'll lose everything. It is an illusion to only look at the 25% occurences. And it is a mistake easily made as the effect only becomes apparent the longer you bet.if there is a way you can compensate a loss using flat betting as we can use progressive betting -
Re: Flat Betting Vs Progressive: Explanation needed
No it doesn't, not at all. You make more profit in the short run but the price you pay is increased risk. If you make a profit then you make a profit faster with progressive staking. But if you make a loss you will also go bancrupt much faster. There is NO inherent advantage AT ALL. The only thing you do is take more risk.Thanks very much. So using the scenario created, Progressive betting clearly beats Flat betting. Well just wanted to hear from the professionals. Thanks.
I don't know where this is coming from but if that was the case then just skip the first two and put the whole bank on the third one. You'll be a billionaire in no time. It just doesn't work that way in real life. You may win the third one more often than not but when it loses you also lose a much larger portion of your bank.he is sure he will win his Third stake -
Re: All about betting(Tips and Secrets)
So you are saying you are losing money and therefore you must not be good at it ?If i'm losing money, than probably i'm not good enough.
You sure do a lot of talking without actually saying anything, ANYTHING works if you have time patience and LUCK. If you count on luck to make a profit you're in the wrong forum. I'll wait for all the 'tips' to be posted before i comment on the content itself.My best tips works if you have time, patient,luck. -
Re: All about betting(Tips and Secrets)
So are you saying you are not good at betting ?If you are losing big money, that's says you are not good at betting.[...] [...] So I decided to quit. -
Re: All about betting(Tips and Secrets)
You want to tell other people how to bet, but you stop betting yourself because your bets are 'unlucky'.... say no more, say no more, a nod is as good as wink to a blind bat. Do continue, it will be a learning experience indeed.now I leave betting because of my unluck of bets. -
Re: Experiences with following tipsters? NervousAnorak, you don't have to agree with other posters, but you do need to respect their contributions, your last post does not reflect that. Anyhow... pinkisntwell, I think you'll have a hard time making a profit from following tipsters. The main reason for this is the timing involved. You have no control over the moment in time that tipsters publish their tips to you and in fact many of the 'best' tips are given quite close to the start of an event. This is especially the case where tipsters rely on 'market information' which usually only becomes available close to the event start. Therefore in order to profit you would basically need to be on-line 24/7 and if not then because of this timing issue you'll miss most of the better tips. In fact that alone may be the difference between profit or loss. As you've also mentioned price is an issue. Many tips will be given because at the time there is a good price available. That is the basis of any 'value' based betting. By the time the tip reaches you and you go to place your bet the price may be gone and therefore also the value, no more profit to be had. So timing needs to be the first thing to look at. When can you make time for any kind of descision making process, even one as simple as checking tipster emails or webpages. When can you make time to actually place bets and with how many exchanges/bookmakers. If you're going with tipsters then you need to find those that fit that time restraint, (efficiently).
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Re: Applying Maria's staking plan to football? No, and you couldn't be more wrong, you change the size of stake depending what odds your single selection got, in order to manage your risk in cases where you have selections covering a wide range of odds.
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Re: Betting volume question
I see nothing to comment on nor analyse. It's just a match like thousands of others. Also i still don't see the original question in the example: " No volume. and.... bing ! 10 000 $ backing or Laying in one or two shot ! " All i see is the traded volume increase over time and then spike up close to kickoff, so what ?1) Any comments or analyze ?
If you can answer this question you'll be a millionaire within a week. That's just the way this market went. Do not make the mistake of looking at Betfair alone, that is not "the market". To get a picture of the full market you have to consider the prices at the full range of bookmakers. With low-liquidity/low-profile matches like this one Betfair is just a tiny % of the full market.2) Why odd on Sepahan increase ?
Yes, but it's only meaningfull if you also consider volume and odds changes on the other outcomes, and include volume and odds changes on related markets, and volume and odds changes at the bookmakers. If a lot of betting is done on "Al Nasr" the price should go down and therefore "Sepahan" goes up, but it is not a conclusion that can be made by looking at just the Betfair history.3) there is any correlation between volume team A and the odd team A ? -
Re: Betting volume question Still can't relate it, all i see is the amount traded increase over time, as can be expected. Think you need a different example. ( it's acutally impossible to answer your question without a clear example as the question itself could be ambiguous )
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Re: Betting volume question I can't relate the question to the image, what do the columns in the example mean ?
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Re: Someone fill me in on free bets Do a google search for the term "matched betting". See how far you get with then, come back with any questions left.
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Re: Notecaddy + Other tools for playing online cash poker I did write a little 'bot' once, (actually ages ago), more for the fun of it than anyhing else, just wanted to see it work. It worked by scanning the screen and recognising patterns based on pixel colour. When connected to an AI it can also press buttons for you and enter text by basically taking over the mouse and keyboard. So instead of you pressing a button on the screen the bot does it for you. Since it works on your local PC and totally independend from anything else it really is undetectable. So something like that is within the reach of amateur programmers. Just takes a huge amount of time to create and complete. For those familiar with the Java programming environment the basic object used is this: http://docs.oracle.com/javase/1.4.2/docs/api/java/awt/Robot.html if the link doesn't work google "java robot class" p.s. so now i'm posting in poker forums, wtf is happening to me, thanks gaf :unsure
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Re: Notecaddy + Other tools for playing online cash poker
Problem is that poker is sooooo boring i fall asleep after 20 minutes.I've always felt that if someone like Datapunter got into online poker, then they could just print as much money as they wanted! -
Re: Double your way to riches football system
Nice idea, however it's simply not what this forum is for.No commercial Tipsters/Websites/Services. This Forum is not intended for commercial Tipsters/Websites/Services/Etc... to post proofing threads or even to plainly advertise. ( either openly or covertly ) Any thread deemed to fall under this category will be remove and the poster banned at the sole discretion of the moderators team. Any exception to this rule needs to be requested beforehand by contacting PL's owner Paul Ross on [email protected] -
Re: Laying 1-1 I think you should change the way you present "stake", it is misleading, especially to people relatively new to sports betting. When you say " stake 1 to 4 " you are not talking about the amount you "have at stake" or in other words the amount you risk losing. What you are talking about is the potential profit in case the lay bet wins. The amount you risk losing on a bet is the "liability" and that is never mentioned anywhere. And yet if you enter a potential profit of 4 at odds of 7.4 the amount you risk losing is... -25.60 That puts a different perspective on things. So your staking plan, at average odds of say 8.0 is actually: profit = 1, liability = -7.00 points profit = 2, liability = -14.00 points profit = 3, liability = -21.00 points profit = 4, liability = -28.00 points If you write the bets like this it gives a more realistic view on the actual risk involved: 14.00 Chievo v Catania Lay 1.44 @ 6.6 liability -8.06 20.00 Lazio v Napoli Lay 1.44 @ 7.2 liability -8.93 21.00 Betis v Villarreal Lay 1.44 @ 7.4 liability -9.22
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Re: Simple Doubles This doesn't work mate, you are totally ambiguous in the bets posted. I take it you've had 2 bets now. Tuesday: Bosnia v Brazil - 1.4 Swindon v Burton - 1.4 Double odds - 1.96 Stake - 10 Return - 19.60 Profit - 9.60 Wednesday: Oman v Thailand - 1.40 Montenegro v Iceland - 1.44 Double odds - 2.02 Stake - 10 Return - 20.20 Profit - 10.20 Start bank: 100 Total staked: 20 Current Bank - 119.8 Stick to the rules of the forum, they're the same for everyone.
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Re: Simple Doubles
It's called after-eventing. All bets to be placed before kick-off. READ THE F-ing RULES.and publish them at the end of the week -
Re: Simple Doubles Mate, don't play games with me.
That is a statement of bets placed.In bold are my selections for the rest of this week, I will bump this thread at the end of the week to see how I got on. (All bets are with William Hill)
Which you now edited to this. Second time you edited a post with selections. So you had one bet so far. Be totally clear about what consists of a shortlist and what is to be considered an actual bet. btw. its totally valid to place a bet the week before if you feel there is a good price available at that time.In bold are who I'm thinking off for the rest of this week, I will bump this thread at the end of the week to see how I got on. (All bets are with William Hill)
A little reminder for the guys and gals on here...please read.
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: A little reminder for the guys and gals on here...please read. To edit the thread title edit the first post of the thread.