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ruscopico

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Posts posted by ruscopico

    West Bromwich Albion v Fulham > Tue 1st January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: West Bromwich Albion v Fulham > Tue 1st January

    Already taken WBA @ 2.10 on Betfair I said in another thread how poor Fulhams defence has become so I wont repeat myself much here, but yesterday it was as bad as ever. They made some changes in this area but it made no difference with 2 big errors gifting Swansea the goals. Their defence has generally been soft conceding 22 goals away from home (4th worst in the league on the road), Hangelaand's form has dropped, there is a general lack of composure and basic organisation individually and collectively which was evident against Newcastle, LPpool, Southampton and yesterday. Damien Duff hasnt played in the last 2 games either and if he doesnt play next week will be missed as he is more useful than Dejagah. Most of the creative burden will rest on Ruiz, Berb and the wingers. Fulham's form is weak and I imagine morale is quite low. On the other hand WBA are fairly solid throughout and are in far better shape than Fulham. Home record is good and they should be able to score against a weaker defence unlike the games against Stoke and West Ham where they were facing better organised opposition. WBA are 12 points ahead, decent at home while Fulham struggle away, the price a shade over evens is worth taking in my opinion.
    Can't argue with your reasoning here, Fulhams first and only away win was against Wigan in September and were it not for their early season home form they would be in the relegation zone. More recently they've been poor at home too with 2 wins in their last 7 at Craven Cottage. West Brom may have lost 4 of their last 7 but 3 of those were away to decent teams (Swansea, Arsenal, Utd) and the home defeat eeked out by Stoke 1-0. Fulham are no Stoke for sure and West Brom have won 5 in 7 home games against teams lower than them in the league. Importantly, they will think Fulham are here for the taking and I agree. Eves in still widely available and a decent punt for me.

    Swansea City v Aston Villa > Tue 1st January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Swansea City v Aston Villa > Tue 1st January I agree with some of the sentiments on here regarding Swansea, they look a shoo in and will will be keen to avenge the defeat they suffered earlier in the season. That said, the price is shortening all the time and it does now look a bit tight. Therefore, how about the overs? The home team average 3.2 goals in their home games while Villa average 3.1 in their aways. In 5 home games against teams lower than them in the league, all have gone over. Before the win at Liverpool, Villa had gone 4 games without an overs but only one of those games was away and that was against QPR who had 12 shots on target that day. We all know whats happened since then and Swansea showed on Saturday they can score goals without Michu. Managed to get 1.91 on the overs at betfair and am happy with that cosidering the stats.

    Swansea City v Aston Villa > Tue 1st January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Swansea City v Aston Villa > Tue 1st January

    Aston Villa - WIN Villa lost last few games and conceded 15 goals. I am sure they will turn it around for their Manager (Lambert), and play their hearts out. They shocked Liverpool, and will turn their recent bad form around. If he plays...Michu-Villa Wincast on Betfair on the day
    mmm.... 3am post, good night was it? :)

    Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January

    Guys' date=' after reading all this discussion I cannot help but recall one game - Man City - Reading. Everybody, including me, was absolutely sure that Reading will get hammered, but we all remember how the Citizens had to save this game in extra time. Not that I expect QPR to shine at Stamford Bridge, but neither did Reading - they just parked the bus and were lucky to be underestimated and City to miss 5 or 6 great chances. My point is that if it was another league where a top team would play at home the poorest side in the group, I would not hesitate, but this is still Premiership. 1.25 on a single game requires very high stake to make sense. And if I want to bet a lot of money on a 1.20-1.25 game, I would rather take something like Porto - Nacional in Portugal Liga Sagres, rather than a London derby.[/quote'] I'm in agreement here, this forum has been littered with losing HC bets over recent weeks (or is that just my perception?!) The point being that all Chelsea will be bothered about is winning this game and after an intense week or two of football, you can't guarantee that they will just keep going for goals if 2 or 3 to the good. I'm not really a fan of HC betting in these circumstances.

    Southampton v Arsenal > Tue 1st January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Southampton v Arsenal > Tue 1st January Struggling to agree with you on this one chaps, Southamptons last 5 homes have all gone under, while 3 of Arsenals last 4 aways were also under. Southampton's average goals per game is 2.7 at home and 3.3 overall yet, this is a little misleading. Their first 5 homes featured 19 goals while their last 5 have seen just 8. Likewise Their first 9 games overall contained 40 goals while their last 10 have seen just 23 (despite the 6 goals in their last game) Interestingly, on the 3 occasions Arsenal have scored 5 or more goals in a game this season, their next game has been unders This game could well go over but at that price, I wouldnt go anywhere near it

    Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January

    I mean how many shots a side has in relation to how many goals they score. I often look at shots on target, corners won etc to gauge whether or not one side has had much attacking play. But it's the actual conversion stats that matter I think because they may have been getting into positions to score, but it's putting the ball in the back of the net that counts. Everton have scored three more than Fulham, and two more than Liverpool. If we take Liverpool as an example - early season they were slated widely for the amount of chances they had been missing, even now they do create and fail to convert a lot. Why criticise Liverpool, yet applaud Everton?
    Thanks for this, its something I'll keep an eye on, according to my records, the conversion rates for this game; NEWCASTLE - HOME Shots per goal - 12.8 Shots on target per goal - 5.8 EVERTON -AWAY Shots per goal 10.4 Shots on target per goal - 5.9 pretty neutral?

    Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January

    Isn't it all about conversion stats though? Their conversion stats are poor by anyone's standards. They've scored the fewest amount from the current top six so far, and they need twice (:unsure maybe not twice, but quite a bit more) as many chances as anyone else in the top six to score less goals than the rest. Everton are currently sixth now. They generally have seasons where they're better in one half than the other, a consistency issue, so I don't see how what IAG has said can be considered as so amazingly unbelievable. If Everton finish above Arsenal by all means come back on and we'll applaud what you've said but right jus it's all just opinions...
    Jase, are you referring to shot/goal conversion? shots target/goal conversion? I've not used these stats in my bets, do you find them a pretty consistent guide? Cheers

    Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion > Sat 29th December

    United to Win to Nill@ 2.30 I know this totally goes against statistics and recent performance, but I can stop thinking that it is just too uncommon and not appropriate for a team like United not to keep clean sheets at home. Let's face it - Newcastle scored 3 and had some other chances, but they were never really pressing against Man United, they just made wonderful use of the red devils' sloppiness and lack of concentration at the back. I bet that SAF has been really furious about the state of his defense and De Gea and the guys in front of him have got a lot of "Fergie Shower" after Wednesday. I think that considerable effort will be made for this game to keep concentration at the back very high and to achieve a clean sheet. Most likely Vidic will get a start, which should bring solidness to the defense. One game comes immediately to my mind in this context - the 1:0 win over West Ham. Before that, Man United had an unprecedented streak of ten games without a clean sheet. They scored in the first minute and when everybody was expecting a waterfall of goals, we saw a very conservative and cautious Man United who just grabbed a strategic 1:0 victory. Following the game with WH, the devils are once again in a long series without a clean sheet - precisely 6 games. As to WBA, they do score on the road, but not so much against the top sides. They played this season away with Arsenal (2:0) and Totenham (1:1) and as I managed to see both matches, I have found them extremely defensive. Against the gooners, I think WBA were really toothless up-front and did not get a decent chance for the whole game. The same story against Spurs - no threat coming from the visitors, not until the last five minutes of the game when they went "va bank" to seek for an equalizer and they created few good opportunities. In my opinion, this one has high probability of being something like a 2:0 home win. Anyway, the price for a United clean-sheet is just too tempting, and every unexpected series has got to stop somewhere.
    sorry, mis-post

    Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool > Sun 30th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool > Sun 30th December

    I think Liverpool are perhaps a little too short here. But at the same time Q.P.R. Have had a bit of a setback and Redknapp has maybe made an error in judgement by criticising the team in vague terms. Most the players must now be thinking they'll be off in January so why bother .... Ultimately it's a rule of mine never to back Liverpool away at anything resembling evens. The bookmakers are still under the deluded impression they're a top four side, which we know they aren't. So I can't see a reason to argue for them being value, unless Rangers are in complete disarray... That is the debatable aspect.
    Yep, the bookies and some gamblers too. This is perfectly illustrated by the fact that the team in 10th haven't beaten a team above them and have only lost once to a team below them. An average mid table team.

    Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 29th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur > Sat 29th December Another hard one to call. As already mentioned, a couple of decent results for Sunderland recently but Southampton are no great shakes on the road and looking at the stats, Man City had more shots on target than any other away team so far this season. Spurs are in decent form with just one defeat in 7 and are sure to be brimming with confidence after Villa rolled over for them on Boxing Day. 5 of Sunderland's 7 defeats have been against teams in the top 6 and you could argue that it was as much City's bad finishing and Harte's butter fingers that led to them avoiding defeat against a top 6 side for the first time this season. I like Spurs and they have won 4 of their 5 away games against teams in the bottom half of the division, 3 of those by more than 1 goal. I'm leaning towards the away team at a fairly attractive price.

    Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic > Sat 29th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic > Sat 29th December This one looks an absolute minefield to me. I agree with what has been said about the standard of opposition Villa have faced recently but conceding 12 goals in two league games is sure to have an affect on their young squad and the prospect of them returning to the sort of form that saw them unbeaten in the 5 games before the last 2 aways could well be wishful thinking. Prior to the excellent away win at Liverpool, Villa avoided defeat against Arsenal, QPR and Stoke and beat Reading. However, they only conceded 1 goal in that 4 match run and any return to such defensive thrift certainly cannot be guaranteed anytime soon. What to say about Wigan? Well, not a lot really, in bad form, without a win in 6 and desperate for points themselves. The Wigan scout at the Villa game against Spurs would surely have one message for Martinez - go for the throat. If the away team can get their noses in front, heads will drop and Wigan just might get something out of this game. Interestingly, Wigan have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games to Villa in the league - I'd be suprised to find them with a better away record against any other PL team! I have a feel anything could happen hereand I just can't call it.

    Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Sat 29th December Am with you on this one Neil, overlooking the Bradford game, Arsenal have only lost one of their last eight league games while Newcastle are struggling, home wins against Wigan and QPR providing just 6 points out of the last 27 available. That said, we all know Arsenal can let us down at times and I'd be worried that despite their torrid recent form, Newcastle are still scoring goals and only only failed to score twice away from home in 9 games. Somethings putting me off Arsenal and considering Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet away from home all season, I'm tempted by the BTTS at 1.91 with hills

    Wigan Athletic v Arsenal > Sat 22nd December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Wigan Athletic v Arsenal > Sat 22nd December Forget the Bradford match, in the league Arsenal have been beaten only once in the last 7 games. Granted, they have only won one of their last 5 aways but they are now unbeaten in 3 on the road. Prior to the thrashing of Reading, draws at Everton (unbeaten at home) and Aston Villa (now unbeaten in 5) have to go down as decent results. Wigan on the other hand have lost 5 of their last 7, with the others a home draw with QPR and a home win over the mighty Reading - who incidently, are the only team to have conceded more goals than Wigan. The conditions aren't too much of a factor to me, as mentioned above, over the past couple of seasons Wigan have ramped it up in the Spring and there appears little evidence that their players are likely to enjoy adverse weather conditions anymore than the away team. I was always under the impression Wigan played pretty decent football anyway, so the state of the pitch and weather may not even it up but rather just make it harder work for both teams. Arsenal are unbeaten in their 8 games against teams in the bottom half of the table this season and Wigan don't look like a team who can break that run.

    Reading v Arsenal > Mon 17th December

    in Premier League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Reading v Arsenal > Mon 17th December I'm not convinced this thread would have got even half of the posts had this game kicked off at 3pm on Sat. It is an absolute dog of a game to call. After the Midweek defeat, what will arsenal do? Go for it? Keep it tight knowing that reading will give you chances? Anyone's guess. I'm not sure arsenal would have been much lower had they won in the week and that is the most compelling reason not to back them imo. For what its worth,my guess is arsenal 1-0 or 2-0. GL with your bets!

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