ruscopico
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Posts posted by ruscopico
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > Sat 7th September Good analysis there billy, but don't forget 4 of those goals came against a Carlisle side everyone is thrashing and Sheffield United are hardly setting the division alight either. The high scoring games in midweek throw another spanner in the works when it comes to trying to call this one. Then there is the 1-1 thing, last 3 Brentford aways have been 1-1, and the last 2 meetings at Bradford have ended 1-1 too. After conceding 8 goals between them in midweek, both managers would be forgiven for being slightly more defense minded and I'll be having a go on the 1-1 with a larger bet on the BTTS Good luck
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Re: saddlerrad - closed thread
You've totally got the wrong end of the stick but i can't be bothered to argue. CheerioRuscopico, the way forum is organized now, if you want to read or write opinions on, let's say, Arsenal vs. Liverpool match, you go there and read all the opinions in one place, and add your own if you want. The way you propose it, each punter to have his own thread, one would have to browse a number of threads to find what he looked for. I don't think it's really comfortable, neither for readers, nor for posters, who would be left alone to comment in their threads, instead of open discussion with all punters within common threads. I believe you're completely wrong, nobody denied him chance to post, but the opposite - Paul encouraged him to post, and directed him into proper section. If everyone was allowed to open threads on whatever they wanted and wherever they wanted, forum would soon turn into a messy place! And if you had a look into that thread, you would see that Saddlerad accepted explanation and posted in proper place! :ok -
I thought this seemed a good idea. Wouldnt the forum benefit from seeing how people tipping on here are doing? We can all chuck a few stats around here and there but the proof of the pudding is in the yield. Seems a shame to deny the guy a chance to post his season results here Just a thought
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Re: Sunderland v Swansea City > Tue 29th January
Swansea play very tight and defensive on the road' date=' they have conceded the fewest goals away from home in the entire league (9). Watched them in a few away matches and they have a lot of men behind the ball, but it seems to work for them. Sunderland still suffer from a lack of creativity and could struggle to break down a deep sitting away team IMO.[/quote'] Spot on here mate, Swansea are a different proposition on the road and if they can hold Everton to a goalless draw at Goodison, I wouldnt go anywhere near either the BTTS or Overs. The only bet I have for this one is for most goals in the 2nd half. Sunderland have 55% of home games most goals in 2nd half while Everton have 64% away 2nd Half most goals 2.25 with Bwin -
Re: Stoke City v Wigan Athletic > Tue 29th January
Wowzers, you take some pleasing, Stoke only surrendered their unbeaten home record on the 12th Jan, they've lost the same number of games at home as Man U, conceding less goals. Granted, Stoke haven't started the year too well but their is no disgrace losing to Man City or Chelsea and Swansea are a tough nut to crack at the Liberty. Before their recent run of 3 defeats on the bounce, they were unbeaten in 10 and it may be a little premature to write them off just yet. Stoke conceded their 1st goal at home against Man City on the 15th Sep and although you are right to point out that they have conceded more in their last 5 games, only Chelsea have 'figured them out' and manage to take 3 points. That said, I'm with you on the BTTS shout. The blank that the home team recorded against Chelsea was their first at home since the 27th October, but perhaps more importantly, they have started leaking goals - conceding in their last 5 homes. I quite like Wigan, unlike Swansea who go away and shut up shop, they tend to play a fairly similar way at home and away and are always on the lookout for goals - only Man U and Arsenal have prevented them scoring in their last 8. If we do some crude analysis on the BTTS, Stoke at home are 45% for the season (including 4 of their last 5) while Wigan are 64% BTTS away (inc. 3 in their last 4). By chucking these together we get implied odds of 1.83 so the odds of 1.91 at Hills should appeal. Finally, last season this game ended up 2-2 and the reverse fixture earlier in the season finished the same way. BTTS 1.91 HillsAmazingly Stoke have only 5 wins at home this season with very much goes against there stereo type of being great at home. Stoke also have poor record at home against wigan with there last win coming back in 2009 Both sides in poor form in premierleague and haven't won for a while so can both side starting at a frantic pace. Stoke went first 6 games without conceeding at home but have now conceeded in every home game since so something has gone wrong here. Or maybe teams have finally figured them out. Wigan having rested there entire starting 11 in the FA Cup at the weekend they will be more than prepared for this game so I think its very likely we will see a Wigan result. Especially as Stoke had very tough game against Man City at weekend with there best 11 out. BTTS - 8 points for safe bet Over 2.5 - 7 points should also come in Wigan Win - 5 points -
Re: Arsenal v Liverpool > Wed 30th January
Fair play, i tend to use form and season performance as indicators when i choose my bets, and therefore don't pay too much attention to individual players. There was a lot made of michu's absence for swansea a few weeks ago and they still won, then it was Gibson's absence from everton and they didn't let up either. You would need an awful lot of time to tailor every bet you make to the team lineup and you would also only make a bet within the hour of the game starting which is a luxury i can't afford.I know it sounded lazy but I wanted to check all available avenues for info. I checked the odds early and they were interesting so was looking for this information as the price may have moved....there are Arsenal fans here with good insight and knowledge, whereas sometimes google is vague or conflicting especially with the game being over a week away..... Some sources are saying he is days from being fit while others suggesting 2 more weeks out, doesnt matter now though as I have a suspicion he wont be available! -
Re: Arsenal v Liverpool > Wed 30th January
Im not sure the purpose of this forum is to replace Google, but if arteta is fit and that makes you bet one way or another, we'd be interestedWill Arteta be back for this game? -
Re: Swansea City v Stoke City > Sat 19th January
The team with the most amount of draws at home in the league faces the team with the most amount of draws away from home in the league. Stats say that chance of a draw here are good but I think I will no bet this game. Don't particularly like betting on draws or on unders' date=' which I fancy this game could be....1-1 looks prime.[/quote'] I wouldnt be at all surprised at that scoreline. Finding this a hard one to call, I quite fancy Swansea was there is a massive draw risk. Will probably plump for the the 2-3 goals. Swansea rarely fail to score or keep clean sheets at home and Stoke have shown some defensive frailties recently, without a clean sheet in 4 games. The last 3 meetings between these teams have finished 2-0 to the home team. 2 or 3 goals 2.07 32red -
Re: West Ham v Queens Park Rangers > Sat 19th January
Since when have west ham been consistent this season? The only constant i can find is that they are unbeaten at home in the 6 games they've played at home against teams in the bottom halfI'd be looking at taking QPR on a DNB here. West Ham have stopped playing consistently and QPR will be going there with confidence after some better perforcances and most importantly results within the last month. -
Re: Southampton v Everton > Mon 21st January
Yep, unfortunately this game is now totally up in the air so no bet is the only option.The Toffees are evens??! Wow! We must have been a cracking bet before this announcement. Hopefully the players aren't taking this as badly as I am or we r fecked!! Clearly the sensible thing to do now is sit out.... Before the news I'd have gone 2/1 your choice of the 12X -
Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January
Some more great analysis here Neil. I'm all over Newcastle to win the 2nd halfGoals looks a little dicey here. Reading are not scoring (1 goal in last 5 away games) They have the worst record away from home in the premier league (2 draws 9 losses) Only 2 other teams in major European football have a similar or worse record (Troyes and Cercle Brugge) The one stat that stands out here is how bad Reading are in the 2nd half of games away from home. In 11 away games they have not won a 2nd 45 minutes. They have drawn once ( liverpool 0-0) and lost the other 10 times. They have managed just 1 2nd half goal away from home in 11 games. They have been outscored 1 to 16 with a goal differential of -15. Only Villa top this in the premier league with a -16 goal diff in the 2nd half (read in 8-0 to Chelsea). 2 other teams (Lazio and Dundee) have also only managed 1 second half goal away, but Reading are basically the worst 2nd half team in Europe in away games. Having said that they are reasonable in the 1st half. They have lost 2 1st halves (2-0 Sunderland and 1-0 Liverpool) in 11 games. Banker : Newcastle to win the 2nd 45 minutes is even money on bet365 Half time Draw and Newcastle win FT is 7/2 bet365 Half time 0-0 draw and full time 2-0 Newcastle is 20-1 bet365. -
Re: West Bromwich Albion v Aston Villa > Sat 19th January If you are looking at the away win Louis, villa have won 2 of their last 5 games at the hawthorns. Looking at them avoiding defeat ,they have managed that in 4 of their last 5 visits.
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Re: Liverpool v Norwich > Sat 19th January
Welcome to the punters lounge :) I agree that their conversion rate is pretty poor (4th lowest in the league at home) but they are still winning games and scoring goals. With the addition of Sturridge and the in-form Suarez, it seems unlikely that their conversion rate will get any worse and the up side may be helping drive the price down.Interesting stats here, however I would also say that finishing is part of the game and Liverpool have clearly not been good enough in this area over the past year or so. Perhaps this will improve with Sturridge/ the improved Suarez. Maybe this view (that Liverpool are bound to start scoring more because of having lots of shots) is fueling the overly high rating of Liverpool as a team as you say, but again this has been consistent for over a year now and surely them having such a poor conversion rate is no longer a fluke. -
Re: Liverpool v Norwich > Sat 19th January A look at the shot stats may help explain Liverpool being so short here, they have had at least twice as many shots on target as their last 7 opponents at Anfield and scored 7 in their last 2 homes. I'd be a little wary of the Liverpool to win to nil, although Liverpool's stats and the 4 clean sheets are impressive (against teams with quite high BTTS stats too) Norwich have scored in 8 of their last 10 aways, and the last 5 on the bounce. They've managed to get goals (and incidently 2 draws) in games away at Spurs, Chelsea and Everton. Liverpool have only conceded twice in 8 home games against teams in the bottom half of the league and I do think they will win the game, but the away team do like to score goals
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Sorry Jase, I just feel i'm entitled to reply on this one.... Fedar, your first comment on the thread: Liverpool do play better against top dogs, but the last time they did not lose at Old Trafford was during Benitez' and Torres' reign - the 1:4 victory in 2009. In all the following games they not only lost, but were severely outplayed. At Anfield, Liverpool plays great against United, but away from home is completely different story. 1.80 is an excellent price for a home win, which is probably 80% likely to happen. You later state: First, I would prefer to use a bit wider time window - say, the last 3 seasons, rather than the last few months since Brendan has been coaching. Especially since the core of Liverpool players that will confront United has been the same over the past several seasons. And Liverpool did perform very well against top teams. Second, I would prefer not to take raw stats, but rather to dig into it. Yes, Liverpool did not get the points against top teams so far under Rogers. But Liverpool did outplay both United and City, where ferocious referee and defensive mistakes denied them the victory. Liverpool had a pretty decent performance against Spurs and Chelsea. They had an excellent game against Everton which this year can also be considered as a top team. Liverpool was poor only against Arsenal. So, even if they don't get the right results, Liverpool continues to play very well against top teams even under Rogers. You keep talking about how Liverpool play well against top teams but are also backing Man U to win this game - That is a contradiction in anyones language. How they do against top four teams is immaterial in respects to this game.
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Jase, i have no attitude but when people contradict themselves just to argue, i think i'm witnin my rights to point this out.
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
They've played Arsenal' date=' City and United in that bracket already this season. I personally don't see that section of results as conclusive or indicative of being unable to win against top sides. It's a hard one to judge, but Rodgers is just undergoing a transitional period so results have been inconsistent.[/quote'] What are you talking about Jase? Liverpool have played 10 games against teams in the top half, and won none. Considering that they have 1 defeat in 11 against the bottom 10 teams, statistically at least this make them EASY to judge. Transitional period? does that apply to every manager who took over at the start of the season? Are Villa is a 'transitional' process, are Swansea in a 'transitional' period? One thing you CAN say about this season is that statistically , Liverpool have been predictable. -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
As has been pointed out several times in recent weeks, Liverpool have not beaten a team in the top half of the table this season, but are unbeaten against teams in the bottom half. Therefore, under Brendan Rodgers they seem to do worse against the top teams if anythingLiverpool tend to play better football against top sides and against Man.United in particular. So, I would not be surprised if they get a draw from this game. Goals are very likely in this one and in the last 10 games between these two sides only twice "Both to Score" bet would have lost. Both to Score @ 1.50 William Hill -
Re: Everton v Swansea City > Sat 12th January I totally understand waiting for team news, but quite how relevent is it? Swansea had Michu out, which certainly put me off them and they won, then there was a lot of chat about Gibson being out and Everton go and win. More importantly, does anyone consider the make up of the sides when checking on past form? Oh and before any ranting, this is just a discussion point :)
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Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January
Wowzers, wasn't expecting that. As i said, I've had a quick look and didnt fancy it. I noted both teams liked the overs, took a look at the price and decided that at a glance, the odds were at a level that I felt didn't merit anymore analysis. You have obviously found some stats that make you happy to take the price and thats your perogative. For what is worth, you may want to consider the BTTS too as in the 3 home games Man U have won to nil, 2 have been unders. Its around 1.62 with Boylesport I think. I also think that the 1-1 is the biggest threat to the overs shout here. As for the second part of your rant, I can't remember even mentioning the word 'value' on this forum so I can only assume its not directed at me.Are they?!! The last five Premier League games b/n United and Pool at Old Trafford went "over". 8 out of the last 10 Premier League games between United and Pool were over 2.5. 8 out of 10 home games this season of Man United at Old Trafford were over 2.5. 16 out of all 21 Premiership matches of Manchester United this season featured over 2.5 goals. And what is most interesting - 13 out of 15 games played last year and this half-season between United and top 6 teams (City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea) went over 2.5! So, what we got here - the current price of 1.61 implies 62% probability of over 2.5 between United and Pool. All the stats above imply much higher probability for the same event! So, do you still think it is a low price?! I really don't understand people saying "hmmm, it's below 1.80-2.00, so there is no value in it, so I am taking the enormous value in the 2.0 "over" for the random game between, say, Norwich and Swansea". Value is not just about the price itself, value is about the probability correlated to the price. And we see from all the stats and from the current shape of both United and Liverpool's offenses and defenses, the probability for an "over" here is very, very high, which in my opinion totally makes-up for the slightly lower than average price (considering that overs are on average priced at around 1.80). I would myself rather take this one, instead of indulging in "the big value offered" by 0.25-0.30 higher price for "over" for some totally unpredictable game, where guessing over/under is more like tossing a coin. Just my opinion. -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January I'm not going to get dragged into this one just cos its a big game on the box. Play better against top teams? Liverpool havent beaten a top ten team in TEN attempts this season home or away. The BTTS and Overs looks on but is priced accordingly.
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Re: Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers > Wed 2nd January 5 Changes for the home team really didnt help
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Re: Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January Can totally understand the BTTS shout here but the price is EXTREMELY tight. Everton's last ten games have finished either 1-1 or 2-1 while 50% of Newcastle's homes have had 2 or 3 goals. 2 or 3 goals at evens with bet365 is the bet for me. GL all!
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Re: Newcastle United v Everton > Wed 2nd January Hey Neil, why you favouring the draw here?
Sky Bet League 2 > Sat 7th September
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Sat 7th September
A nailed on home win on paper, I'd never back a team at 1.44 in this division after a handful of games though.