The Floorwalker
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Posts posted by The Floorwalker
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Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Bet 6 06/10/06 £5 Wycombe (8/11) v Torquay Running Total = +4.50 Strike Rate = 60% Sequence = LWWWL
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Re: RG System Friday 6th October DRAW(2*) Darlington v Rochdale AWAY(1*) Wycombe v Torquay Saturday 7th October HOME(1*) Carlisle v Millwall 12pts staked
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Re: RG System Thanks Lardonio, hopefully it's only a matter of time before we hit a big one - one or two near misses so far...:cry Results Saturday 30th September HOME(2*) Blackburn v Wigan 2-1 DRAW(1*) Southampton v QPR 1-2 AWAY(3*) Gillingham v Cheltenham 2-1 DRAW(3*) Huddersfield v Bournemouth 2-2
3pts at 5.6=16.8pts
HOME(1*) Walsall v Mansfield 4-0
7.2pt loss on the day. Bank now 83.6pts. -
Re: Dodgy Home Favourites 2 from 3 today....:) Bet 1 26/09/06 £5 Swansea v Crewe 2-1 Lost 2.2 ...94 Bet 2 26/09/06 £5 Peterboro v Barnet 1-1 Won.......99 Bet 3 30/09/06 £5 Coventry v Plymouth 0-1 Won.....104 Bet 4 30/09/06 £5 Huddersfield v Bournemouth 2-2 Won...109 Bet 5 30/09/06 £5 Gillingham v Cheltenham 2-1 Lost 1.90....104.50
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Another new system which I'd like to paper test is as follows: I had some success with this last season but I never actually recorded the results so I don't know exactly how successful it is, or whether I just got lucky.;) The selection method for this system is simple enough to follow so I might as well post the rules here as well. Using a newspaper which shows the form for the last 6 matches... The team is a selection if it has WON its last game AND at least 2 others (from the last 6 played) and the team is playing a team that has LOST its last game AND at least 2 others. Ie...WDWLLW Blackpool v Port Vale DLLDWL would be a qualifier WWWWLL Burnley v Preston LLLLLL would NOT be a qualifier There tends to be in the region of 5-10 qualifiers on a full fixture list. I am going to pick the 4 best priced qualifiers and do 4 Trebles and 1 4-fold (5 bets total). A week of 'typical' prices would yield a doubling up of the stake for 3 winners (ie around 10pts return) and somewhere in the region of 60pts return for all 4 winners (ie approx 12 times the stake). This means that we only need 3 out of 4 to come in every other week and we would be in the black (ideally to keep the bank ticking over whilst waiting for all 4 to be landed to provide a nice payout). The 4 games for this weekend are as follows (prices are with Paddy Power) : Cardiff (10/11) v Wolves Brighton (Ev) v Chesterfield Rochdale v Shrewsbury (13/8) Walsall (8/15) v Mansfield
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Re: RG System Thanks for the interest guys....a tiny profit on the midweek games but another late goal spoilt a maximum bet being landed (I managed to get 9.0 as well which is a very juicy price for a 1-1 scoreline!). Results Tuesday 26th September HOME(2*) Carlisle v Blackpool 2-0 :) 2pts at 12.5 = 25pts AWAY(1*) Oldham v Rotherham 2-1 DRAW(3*) Grimsby v Hartlepool 1-4 DRAW(1*) Notts County v Stockport 1-0 Wednesday 27th September DRAW(3*) Wrexham v Rochdale 1-2 Profit of 1pt on the day, bank now 90.8pts. All I can say at the moment is that it hasn't quite taken off but equally there's been no real damage done. I was intially going to wait until late October to start it up and perhaps I should have but I really needed to have a full seasons results to decide how best to go about it for future seasons. At any rate, I would expect the system to be more profitable as the season progresses. Having said that, we've only just missed out on being 50pts points better off through Darlingtons late late equaliser so maybe I'm being unduly critical. (promise I won't mention that goal again from now on but it did hurt !). The only conclusion that could be drawn from last seasons results and the few from this season are that if you were backing these selectively, you would be concentrating on any Maximum bet (3*) and any bet using the AWAY system. Saturday 30th September HOME(2*) Blackburn v Wigan DRAW(1*) Southampton v QPR AWAY(3*) Gillingham v Cheltenham DRAW(3*) Huddersfield v Bournemouth HOME(1*) Walsall v Mansfield 24pts staked
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Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Many Thanks (again) for the replies.... I have a little more time now and I'm feeling a little more rational (you'll be glad to hear!) :) Firstly, I take on board everything said about the staking plan being too aggressive (aka sheer lunacy :eek ). I would also agree with the assumption that the strike rate would be nearer 65% than 80%. The sample of 20 showed 80% but I am aware that this is too small a sample size and over a longer period I wouldn't envisage the percentage being this high. I think I'll go with a flat rate of 5% of the bank on each LAY (rounding up/down to the nearest £1). After, say, 100 LAYs, maybe we could review things. This feels MUCH more comfortable ! :ok Here's a summary - last figure on the line is the running total for the Bank. Bet 1 26/09/06 £5 Swansea v Crewe 2-1 Lost 2.2 ...94 Bet 2 26/09/06 £5 Peterboro v Barnet 1-1 Won.......99 Bet 3 30/09/06 £5 Coventry v Plymouth Bet 4 30/09/06 £5 Huddersfield v Bournemouth Bet 5 30/09/06 £5 Gillingham v Cheltenham
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Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Thanks for the good advice pinhofap and Maria. I was actually going to request advise on the staking plan (obviously I should have done !:\ ). I'm not usually into short prices with high strike rates so I plucked this one out of the air...:eek I would like your opinions of the best way to maximise the profits and not risk going broke on a losing run. I ran a test using the results shown and it worked a treat but there were of course no real losing runs. I thought the percentage bank was a good idea because in effect it never runs out (does it) ? ie after for 5 losers, stakes would be 20,16,12,10,8 and the bank would still have 34pts left in it. I was thinking of this combined with skimming money off the bank along the way if things were going well - ie if the bank reached £220, skim off £20 and use a bank of £200 for the next bet. If this happened 5 times, the original £100 would be pocketed and the bank would then be purely profits. How about something like that combined with a 10% staking plan I wonder? Any advice appreciated.....
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I've been looking at devising a system which finds dodgy HOME favourites with a view to laying them. I have back tested the system over 20 games and the results are as follows : LWLLWWWWWWLWWWWWW That's 16 successful lays from 20 bets and the price to LAY is usually around evens or shorter. The strike rate is 80% but a strike rate of as low as 50% would be enough to show a profit due to the LAY prices. Starting Bank is £100 and I'm actually doing these on Betfair. That'll jinx it ! :unsure Since the strike rate is high I'm going to use an aggressive staking plan to hopefully maximise profits. The staking plan is to bet 20% of the bank. If there is more than one LAY on any day, an extra 5% is added to the stake and divided equally on the LAYs. Tuesday 26th September (2 LAYS so stakes are 25% of Bank (20%+5%) split equally = £12.50 on each LAY) Swansea (6/5) v Crewe Peterboro (10/11) v Barnet Saturday 30th September (30% of the bank, ie 10% on each) Coventry (4/5) v Plymouth Gillingham (5/6) v Cheltenham Huddersfield (5/6) v Bournemouth (Prices shown are best prices on oddschecker as a guide to the lay price). NB text has been edited to put the Coventry game on the correct day (Saturday)
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Re: RG System Results Saturday 23rd September AWAY(1*) Middlesbrough v Blackburn 0-1
0.5pt win at 12 = 6pts
DRAW(1*) Leicester v Colchester 0-0 1pt win at 5.8
DRAW(1*) Wolves v Stoke 2-0
HOME(1*) Carlisle v Brighton 3-1
DRAW(2*) Boston v Rochdale 0-3
DRAW(2*) Grimsby v Stockport 0-1
DRAW(1*) Peterboro v Hartlepool 3-5
Loss of 10.2 pts on the day - Bank now 89.8pts
Tuesday 26th September
HOME(2*) Carlisle v Blackpool
AWAY(1*) Oldham v Rotherham
DRAW(3*) Grimsby v Hartlepool
DRAW(1*) Notts County v Stockport
Wednesday 27th September
DRAW(3*) Wrexham v Rochdale
24pts staked -
Re: HT/FT betting,could it be profitable? Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all won today having been drawing at half-time. I make that 125-1 treble at a price of 4/1 for each. If Man Utd win against Reading, that'll make it a 500-1 4-fold.....Food for though heh ?
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Re: RG System Here are the weekends ones - hopefully no goals 10 seconds from the end of injury time to spoil things this week
Saturday 23rd September
AWAY(1*) Middlesbrough v Blackburn
DRAW(1*) Leicester v Colchester
DRAW(1*) Wolves v Stoke
HOME(1*) Carlisle v Brighton
DRAW(2*) Boston v Rochdale
DRAW(2*) Grimsby v Stockport
DRAW(1*) Peterboro v Hartlepool
I make that 22pts staked. -
Re: Testing another System Results WON Wycombe 5/4 LOST Norwich 11/10 WON Crewe 10/11 LOST Cowdenbeath 4/5 WON Bristol City 4/6 LOST WBA 8/15 WON St Johnstone 2/5 Wipeout !! WBA and Cowdenbeath conceded late goals when winning. I've give it another go next week ;)
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Re: Laying 3 Games Results 2-1 Score 8/13 Dundee 13/5 Queen of the South 10/3 1-1 Score 4/7 Morton 3/1 Stirling 9/2 0-0 Score 4/7 Notts For 5/2 Carlisle 9/2 2 of the 3 lays came in so Staking Plan 1 = 20pts - 6.15pts = 13.85 pts Profit Staking Plan 2 = Treble of 27 bets paid just over 28 = 1pt profit Staking Plan 3 = 20pts staked, 1 double paid 14pts = 6pt loss NB Staking plans 2 and 3 are likely to be inaccurate because best odds have been applied - I've leave it for now since this is just paper testing - plus it makes the math a bit easier :)
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Re: RG System Results Quite a good day but an injury time equaliser by Darlington cost us about 50 pts !
Saturday 16th September
HOME(1*) Cardiff v Luton 4-1
DRAW(3*) Southampton v Plymouth 1-0
DRAW(3*) Brentford v Bournemouth 0-0 3pt win at 5.8 = 16.8pts
AWAY(2*) Darlington v Bristol Rovers 1-1
HOME(3*) Walsall v Macclesfield 2-0 3pt win at 9.8 = 29.4pts
Bank before today 82.8pts
Todays Profit = 46.2-28 = 18.2pts
Bank now = 100 pts (again!) -
Re: RG System Black Tuesday ! Results... Tuesday 12th September DRAW(1*) Leicester v Hull 0-1 DRAW(1*) Wolves v Derby 0-1 HOME(1*) Northampton v Yeovil 1-1 DRAW(2*) Lincoln v Macclesfield 2-1 Bank now 82.8pts I'm hoping for better from these weekend ones especially because there are a few 3* bets in there :hope Saturday 16th September HOME(1*) Cardiff v Luton 4/5 DRAW(3*) Southampton v Plymouth 9/4 DRAW(3*) Brentford v Bournemouth 12/5 AWAY(2*) Darlington v Bristol Rovers 7/2 HOME(3*) Walsall v Macclesfield 8/15 28pts total
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Another new system which I'd like to paper test is as follows: I have a selection method which has produced the following for this weekend (in descending price order using best prices as shown by oddschecker) Wycombe 5/4 Norwich 11/10 Crewe 10/11 Cowdenbeath 4/5 Bristol City 4/6 WBA 8/15 St Johnstone 2/5 Now the real problem - how best to deal with the selections. I think an average of 6 or 7 would be the norm by the way. I've decided to go with the following 3 to track which one(s) looks best. For Staking Plan 1 do the 4 biggest priced selections in 4 trebles and a 4-Fold making 5 bets. For Staking Plan 2 do the 3 shortest priced selections in a treble (1 bet). For Staking Plan 3 do the 3 shortest priced selections as bankers and do the 4 biggest selections in 4 trebles and a 4-Fold making 5 bets. All bets will be 1pt except the treble in staking plan 2 which would be 5pts. ie all staking plans are 5pts stake..:ok For paper testing, I'll calculate returns using the best odds and knock 10% off any returns
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I'm just going to paper test this system and see how it gets on. I'll be picking 3 games to LAY the home team. The selections are made through a system. The home teams best available price according to oddschecker must be 4/6 or shorter. Games for Saturday 16th September (with best Home/Draw/Away prices shown) : 8/13 Dundee 13/5 Queen of the South 10/3 4/7 Morton 3/1 Stirling 9/2 4/7 Notts For 5/2 Carlisle 9/2 The plan is to LAY each of the 3 home teams on Betfair (I'll assume the best price shown is also the lay price). Also perming each of the 3 outcomes (Home/Draw/Away) in 27 Trebles (obviously hoping for mainly draws or away wins). For recording purposes I will just calculate the treble using the best odds shown above and deduct 10% since the same bookie is unlikely to have the best possible price for each of the 3 games. I am undecided about whether the 27 Trebles plan would work better than the following so I will test them both. The other plan is to forget about the Homes and just perm the draws and aways in doubles and trebles. I make this 12 Doubles and 8 Trebles = 20 bets. I'll paper test using a 10pt LAY on each of the 3 games,27 * 1pt Trebles and 1pt on the 20 Doubles/Trebles bets :ok
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Re: RG System Newcastles late collapse and Swanseas late-ish winner spoilt the day but not too much damage done. HOME(1*) Newcastle v Fulham 1-2 DRAW(1*) Swansea v Bradford 1-0 DRAW(1*) Bristol Rovers v Rochdale 0-0
1pt win at 5.8
Staked : 10pts
Returns: 5.8pts
Loss: 4.2pts
Bank: 96.8pts
Tuesday 12th September
DRAW(1*) Leicester v Hull
DRAW(1*) Wolves v Derby
HOME(1*) Northampton v Yeovil
DRAW(2*) Lincoln v Macclesfield
14pts staked (10 + 4pts Multiple bets) -
Re: RG System Here are the weekends bets. HOME(1*) Newcastle v Fulham 8/11 DRAW(1*) Swansea v Bradford 9/4 DRAW(1*) Bristol Rovers v Rochdale 23/10 2pts on each and 4pts total on the multiples = 10pts stake best of luck
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Re: RG System Well it was VERY late in the day but managed to find a winner to make a very small profit. :clap Results AWAY(2*) Swansea v Yeovil 1-1 AWAY(2*) Darlington v Torquay 1-1 HOME(1*) Grimsby v Macclesfield 1-1 DRAW(3*) Wycombe v Mansfield 1-0 AWAY(2*) Tranmere v Leyton Orient 3-0 AWAY(1*) Peterboro v Bury 0-1
1pt win at 16.0 and 0.5pt win at 22.0
Stake 26 pts, Returns 27 pts
Bank now 101pts -
I've never posted on this forum before but I've recently been 'lurking' and have been very impressed with the systems being tested and the great contributions from members offering advice and suggesting improvements. The 'trebles' thread from FleetFanatic and the number crunching from other members is particularly impressive and I'm sure that particular system will go from strength to strength. I have a similar problem to FleetFanatic, in that I was going to wait until later into the season to start the system but I'm itching to get started and last week produced 4 from 6 winners when I paper tested it so I'm going to give it a go. I posted this system for 2 months on another board last season and the results were as follows : Strike Rate 8/25 = 32 % Stake 100pts Returns 178.6pts overall +78.6pts ROI 178.6% I'll start the Bank at 100pts for this season. There are 3 types of bet - named HOME, DRAW, AWAY HOME (1-0 and 2-0 correct scores - stake split equally) DRAW (1-1 correct score and "Draw HT/Draw FT" - stake split equally) AWAY (0-1 and 1-2 correct scores - stake split equally and double stake on "Draw HT/Away FT"). Selection Process ============= 1. The system uses a combination of previous results, statistics and probability. 2. It's quite a complicated process but I've got it down to about 30 minutes to do all 4 divisions. 3. I devised the system from scratch last season, the games were posted on another forum and the results are summarised above. 4. The system has very defined boundaries and there are no grey areas - this applies to both the selection and the rating. Other Points to Note =============== 1. Statistically so far, the AWAY part of the system has proved to be the most profitable. 2. The Maximum Bet of 3* has proved to be the most reliable rating to find the winners (encouragingly enough!). Each game is given a rating of 1*, 2* or 3* (3* being in effect a maximum bet) Stakes for 1* games are 2 points per game. Stakes for 2* games are 4 points per game. Stakes for 3* games are 6 points per game. If overall profit reaches : 100pts then stakes become 3,6,9 200pts then stakes become 4,8,12 300pts then stakes become 5,10,15 and so on In addition I will be combining selections in small multiples in the hope of a big payday. For the multiples I will only be selecting one outcome for each match as follows : The HOME system will be 1-0 unless home team is best priced at 1-2 or less in which case 2-0 The DRAW system will be 1-1 The AWAY system will be 1-2. I will also be doing a small fixed odds Multiple Bet. Stakes for Multiple Bets will be no more than the stake for a 2* game (ie 4 points initially). Anyway hope this makes some sort of sense - it's good to have a structure before things start rather than 'winging' it. Here are this weeks selections with the best 12X price shown. FRIDAY AWAY(2*) Swansea v Yeovil 7/2 AWAY(2*) Darlington v Torquay 7/2 HOME(1*) Grimsby v Macclesfield 4/5 DRAW(3*) Wycombe v Mansfield 12/5 SATURDAY AWAY(2*) Tranmere v Leyton Orient 4/1 SUNDAY AWAY(1*) Peterboro v Bury 5/1 The multiple is 4pts so... 20* 0.10pt Trebles 15* 0.05pt 4-Folds 6 * 0.06pt 5-Folds 1 * 0.05pt Acc 3.16pts staked Fixed Odds - any 5 and all 6 at 0.12pts = 7*0.12pts = 0.84pts staked. Total multiple bet stake is 4pts. Total stakes this week are 4+4+2+6+4+2+4=26pts cheers and good luck :)
RG System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: RG System Results Friday 6th October DRAW(2*) Darlington v Rochdale 0-5 AWAY(1*) Wycombe v Torquay 2-0 Saturday 7th October HOME(1*) Carlisle v Millwall 1-2 Hope these fare better ! :) Friday 13th October AWAY(3*) Tranmere v Port Vale Saturday 14th October DRAW(1*) Leeds v Stoke AWAY(1*) Wolves v Colchester DRAW(1*) Huddersfield v Carlisle HOME(1*) Oldham v Leyton Orient AWAY(2*) Scunthorpe v Brighton DRAW(1*) Hartlepool v Stockport AWAY(1*) Notts Co v Bristol Rovers Bank now 71.6pts Total staked this weekend = 26pts