The Floorwalker
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Posts posted by The Floorwalker
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Re: Help Required for New System Thank you both for your quick and very useful replies - that's what makes this such a good forum :ok I'd been scratching my head for a couple of days and you guys have nailed it - many thanks :)
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Re: Help Required for New System Thanks Datapunter :ok I did turn the LAY into a back in the manner that you suggested but I still can't get my head around how to dutch for both a profit and a break even. Apologies if I'm being a bit slow but dutching is new ground for me :unsure
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Hello Everyone I've come up with a new system which I've back tested over 300 games and it's given an 80% strike rate. I am however having problems back testing the stakes. Hopefully someone can help. The following is an actual example..... I always have 1 LAY and 2 selections to back. What I need to know is how to work out how much the stakes are on the backing selection to cover the loss of the lay (and the other backing selection). IE if I put on £50 on a LAY at 3.0, I know the loss would be £100. The 2 selections to back are 9.0 and 13.0. How much goes on each of these and is there an easy way to work it out ? I know it's not dutching because I dont need to make a profit on the 2 Backing selections, just break even. Any help appreciated....:hope
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Re: RG System After 80 minutes of Saturdays games the HOME was 2-0, the 2 AWAYS were 0-1 and 1-2 and the DRAW was 0-0 !! It went from a Full House to a wipeout in the space of 10 minutes
Profit now = +311.1pts
Only 1 for this Saturday (mainly due to it being an FA Cup weekend)
DRAW(1*) Ipswich v Sheff Wed -
Re: RG System Just the 1-0 Bury away win last week but quite a few near misses... 2 of the AWAYS (Sheff Wed and Grimsby) both led 2-1 but couldn't hold on. Brighton (AWAY banker) found it just too easy (winning 3-0 !). I'm rushing to get todays out so I'll provide a full results update when I get more time. Saturday 4th October HOME(3*) Preston v Hull AWAY(1*) Bradford v Brighton AWAY(2*) Gillingham v Chesterfield DRAW(3*) Hartlepool v Barnet 22pts Staked
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Re: The GFC System cheers Fitz I'm also doing these to small stakes...just a quid each way at the mo just for a bit of interest. I'm away at the weekend so I won't be able to follow these but let's hope at least one of them sneaks into a place. :ok
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Re: The GFC System Thanks Metallic :ok I thought the payout was going to be much nicer last week - Justin Rose's worse position all weekend was 4th !! Anyway, the same principles have thrown up this motley crew for this weekend on the US PGA tour. Chrysler Classic B VAN PELT 66/1 C HOWELL III 80/1 B BRYANT 100/1 B MAYFAIR 150/1 J BREHAUT 250/1
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Re: The GFC System Justin Rose gets 4th at 50-1 for a profit on the event. :ok 175-1 shot Heath Slocum was one shot off a tie for fifth :eyes
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Re: RG System Results DRAW(1*) Southampton v Stoke 1-0 5pts loss - Profit now 357.1pts Despite being £357.10 up doing these (I'm doing a £1 per point), I'm still not very comfortable with this incremental staking plan - it would mean putting £100 down in total for this weekend ! That's still a bit steep for me....:eek I'll go back to 2,4,6 for now and just adjust the multiple as follows : 2 or 3 selections = 1* stake (ie 2pts) 4 or 5 selections = 2* stake (ie 4pts) 6 or more selections = 3* stake (ie 6pts) Saturday 28th October DRAW(2*) Crystal Palace v Plymouth DRAW(1*) Leeds v Southend AWAY(1*) Wolves v Sheff Wed AWAY(1*) Bristol City v Doncaster AWAY(3*) Huddersfield v Brighton DRAW(2*) Tranmere v Bournemouth AWAY(2*) Notts County v Bury AWAY(3*) Peterborough v Grimsby HOME(3*) Walsall v MK Dons That's a total of 42pts staked
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Re: "The Eleven" Unders System Thanks Clotty I wouldn't necessarily have picked out the Arsenal game either but the good thing about systems is that there's no kicking yourself or 'if onlys'.....it's always black and white so you just do whatever the system throws up. I personally find the knocks easier to take by backing using systems (it's the system fault when it goes wrong, not mine ! :ok ) Anyway if that's not set up Arsenal for a 5-0 win.....:eek Todays game came in anyway (Yeovil 1 Oldham 0) took 1.83 ;)
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Re: WWWLLL System 3 from 4 gives more or less money back today (4.98) with 5 staked. Shame the prices weren't much good but at least it's a return. :\
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Re: WWWLLL System thanks Gaz but still not quite there (only shows last 5 home/away games rather than 6).....surely somewhere must have the info ! :hope todays 4 are with Blue square Luton 5/6 Cardiff 6/4 Preston 4/7 Sunderland 8/11 :ok
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I've come up with this system having studied data which I had to hand from the 2004-5 season. The system is ultra selective but hopefully patience will pay dividends. Using the sample data I managed to devise a system which has a strike rate of 68% for predicting under 2.5 goals (good news heh ?). Now for the bad news...only 200 games or so have been studied and they were all premiership. Also, since this is in effect a 'back tested' system, it could be a wild goose chase but you don't know until you try ! If something like this 68% figure could be maintained, anything over 1.5 would be a good price and in reality I envisage 1.8 being about the average price offered. The system is as follows.... Add together the total number of match goals in the home teams last 3 home games Add together the total number of match goals in the away teams last 3 away games Then add together these 2 values - we have a bet if this value is 11 or less (ie average number of goals over the 6 games is less than 2). In for a penny, in for a pound....I'll start with a 100pt bank and I'll be doing these at £1 a point until I have untold riches (or more likely, the bank reaches zero and I move onto another system !) I'll be doing a 5% of the bank method of staking (rounded down to the nearest point) There are 3 qualifiers for this weekend (with approx betfair odds shown). Reading v Arsenal 1.88 Yeovil v Oldham 1.85 Man Utd v Liverpool 1.65 5pts on each.
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Re: The GFC System Looking promising after round 1. Justin Rose shoots a -12 score of 60 !! :ok Owen and Slocum are still in the hunt for a top 5 place also :hope
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Re: WWWLLL System Thanks for the info :ok Of those mentioned, the sportinglife one is exactly what is required but only shows the last 5 games (not 6).........now if we could get the same format with 6 games we've cracked it :hope
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Re: RG System As I stated at the start of this thread, I had relaxed the filters to include 1* bets to check if these are also profitable. Although it's still early days, I've been through the results and I think I've seen enough to know that the 1* rated HOME games can be dropped from now on (0/7). The jury is still out on the 1* DRAW games but I think I'll stick with these for now and review at a later date (currently 3/12 and breaking even). Needless to say, the AWAY system and the 3* Maximum bets are where the majority of the profits are coming from. Combining last seasons results with this seasons shows 9/22 for the AWAY system and 9/19 for the Maximum bets (for all HOME/DRAW/AWAY). I appreciate that these strike rates can't stay this high but at least it shows which areas are performing well. Just one for this weekend... Saturday 21st October DRAW(1*) Southampton v Stoke 5pts stake
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GOLFERS for COURSES ? =================== I don't know if something like this has been tried before but it just came to me so I thought I'd give it a go. The idea is to find the big priced golfers on the US PGA Tour finishing in the top 5. The system that I'd like to try to find these players is as follows : 1) Look at the Top 20 (and ties) for the same event in the previous year (must be the same golf course). This will show that the course suits the player and he has a liking for this particular course. 2) From this list, highlight all of these players who are in the top 100 for Greens in Reulation (GIR) stats for THIS year. This will show that the player isn't hopelessly out of form and is swinging the club well this year. 3) From those remaining select the first 5 players whose odds are 50-1 or bigger. By backing these 5 E/w, if ANY of the 5 players manages to finish in the Top 5, a profit has been made. FUNAI CLASSIC J ROSE 50-1 G OWEN 66-1 T LEHMAN 80-1 B JOBE 125-1 H SLOCUM 175-1
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Re: WWWLLL System The form for the last 6 games is just for the HOME form of the home team and the AWAY form of the away team - should've made this clearer on the first entry :) Thanks Si for that site which has some excellent stats on it. It's still not what I'm after for this system though since you have to 'drill' into each individual game to see the WWWLLL bit for each team. What I'm after is a list of fixtures like this WWLDLL Liverpool v Man Utd LWDDWW LDWLWW Blackburn v Bolton LDDLLL etc etc...so that you can see at a glance which matches qualify. this weekends by the way look to be....Luton,Cardiff,Preston and Sunderland :ok
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Re: WWWLLL System Hi HABS Thanks for the interest - like I say, it worked well for me last season and it would be great if someone could do some back testing. (just 2 from 4 again last weekend by the way :\ ) At the moment I use the Daily Mirror on a Tuesday and then go to Oddschecker to get the 4 best priced teams. I have actually got the same question as you - dont know if anyone else can help ? I had a real good dig around online and the best I could find was the WDL form for the last 5 games (not 6). Let me know if you find a good website and do some back-testing. Best of luck :ok
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Re: RG System Thanks Wolf ! :ok I've now posted a bit more information on the first entry on the thread to comply with the new rules for this S&S forum. I've not gone into too much detail ;) but I'm happy to post the selections on here if people are finding them useful.... I've also took the chance to amend the incremental staking plan - the original one was a bit too aggressive. Since the bank is now over 300pts profit, the stakes are now 5,10 and 15 (for 1*,2* and 3* respectively). cheers
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Re: RG System The weekend it all came together
Friday 13th October
AWAY(3*) Tranmere v Port Vale 1-2 1.5pts at 26 = 39pts
Saturday 14th October
DRAW(1*) Leeds v Stoke 0-4
AWAY(1*) Wolves v Colchester 1-0
DRAW(1*) Huddersfield v Carlisle 2-1
HOME(1*) Oldham v Leyton Orient 3-3
AWAY(2*) Scunthorpe v Brighton 1-2 2pts at 13 and 1pt at 25 = 51pts
DRAW(1*) Hartlepool v Stockport 1-1 1pt at 5.7 and 1pt at 6.8 = 12.5pts
AWAY(1*) Notts Co v Bristol Rovers 1-2 1pt at 13 and 0.5pt at 22 = 24pts
And finally (I knew I was doing the multiples for a reason).....
W16-1, W16-1, W16-1 and W6-1 in doubles and trebles (didn't perm the 4-fold since number of bets is too big with only 4pts to stake). Returns on the bet are a whopping 290pts
Returns on the day of 126.5+290= 416.5pts, thats a profit of 390.5pts
Think I'll sink a few beers tonight !
Bank now 462.1pts -
Re: WWWLLL System I understand that the staking isn't to everyones liking but it gives a more regular return than just doing the acc. It works for me anyway :) 2 from 4 last time so no return = -5pts Saturday 14th October (Bets with VC) Portsmouth (10/11) v West Ham Preston (6/5) v Sunderland Boston (6/5) v Mansfield Hereford (6/5) v Darlington
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Re: RG System Result - Friday 13th October AWAY(3*) Tranmere v Port Vale 1-2 :clap Maximum bet landed last night at 25-1 :ok Let's hope for a few more today.....(I've got it at 16-1 in the multiple bet as well)
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Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Bet 6 06/10/06 £5 Wycombe (8/11) v Torquay 2-0 Lost -4.50 Bet 7 13/10/06 £5 Tranmere (4/6) v Port Vale Bet 8 14//10/06 £5 Wolves (4/6) v Colchester Bet 9 14/10/06 £5 Huddersfield (10/11) v Carlisle Bet 10 14/10/06 £5 Notts Co (8/11) v Bristol Rovers
RG System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: RG System One loss last week. That's the 3rd time this season that 'new manager' syndrome has let me down ! (think I may add a filter for next season !) Profit now = +309.1pts Saturday 18th November DRAW(1*) Chesterfield v Cheltenham DRAW(1*) Lincoln v Darlington AWAY(2*) Wycombe v Grimsby