Sporting Sam

final race at keeneland 2215
joke master
each way
Charm of the song
Win
both have free energy to claim here from  their respective stalls, both are drawn low and expected to figure in the closing stages if the others go off too fast.
 
round  up….   
Another six winners  landed but very hard work (and some  really valid points made on the each way thread) another two weeks left to land three tricasts.  I’m on track to do that and hopefully will have a crack at one soon.!
late on the scene and concentrating on horses getting free energy as I said I would and first up two runners highlighted as likely to run well because of it and  1. HABDRI gets home strongly at a very nice price considering.
Huge odds on Gordon Elliott runner 
2. Brighterdaysahead wins by precisely 10.0 lengths to return a massive   6/4.
3. STAR OFFICIAL   👮‍♀️ 👮‍♂️ won well at thurles 3/1 into 5/2
4. FIFTY YEAR STORM. 11/4
the maiden wins readily in a driving finish and Hollie Doyle was the difference here.
5 BATAL DUBAI
only had to step forward to settle this in a matter of strides and was well clear at the end 
6. Lincoln highway
wins stateside at keeneland
(at the post) 
Each way runners
Alghazaal  placed each way 40s into 33/1
nutted!!!  The runners up
katar
no chance with the winner but squeezed up for an out and had to “sit and suffer “ denied clear run more than once.
BUXTED REEL
( never closer second)
Mary of Modena
(not far behind fifty year storm)
A 369 tricast and indicators were very strong for the top two and really outght to have been a reverse forecast and tricast attempt.
 
 
 

2000
back to the 24 hour clock and 
 
katar 
win
and
universal Grace
each way 
both look clear here. They both have different profiles but click all the right buttons in terms of draw data and form. By my reckoning Katar has hidden his light under a bushel and based on his early runs and the ratings now of those he come close to, he is masquerading as a plater and should be performing at a much higher level.
 It may be he hasn’t kicked on but I’d rate him by potential and he should be holding down a mark of 77 now.
universal won well  latest and the handicapper has been generous raising him just three pounds.
 

Chelmsford 7:30 pm
I’m recommending a combination forecast here
mark usher has always been a good trainer for me and it pays to follow these trainers showing resourcefulness and adaptability on turf and on the all weather. His runner here is
Alghazaal 
each way 
And the excellent David Probert makes for an interesting jockey booking.
the two draw data horses here using two selection methods to source the optimum winning stall over a very narrow time span are
BUXTED REEL
Win
and
Lilla Cross
each way
 

Chelmsford 7pm
Batal Dubai.  
Cuban breeze.  
both win
both hard to oppose
but the draw data horse is
innana
each way

Brighton 3:20
DRAW DATA
Chagahill
win
ground looks to have gone against most of these and Tom Marquand is up against the missus here. Just a pound off winning mark for this temperamental runner but sure to go well
Klipp klopp
each way 
a real outsider but physics says he might just go well.
Thurles 3:25
star official  👮‍♀️ 👮‍♂️ 
win
hasn’t always put it in in a finish but still very lightly raced and right up there.
O'Faolains Glory
each way
backed each run lately and both preceeded by being a non runner firstly the ground (which is a worry here)
secondly latest in season which is a potentially very good sign. Well backed again. 

Brighton 5:40
MARY OF MODENA
Win 5/1 or better
Fifty year storm 
2/1 or better
full write ✍️ up courtesy of the Hugh Taylor thread.

Hugh Taylor will be back on October 24 th so Sporting Sam is (unofficially) standing in with his off the wall write ups in his absence.
no winners yesterday but a winner and a second and third in the same race in a blanket finish on Monday. 
Sam’s first selections run in the last race at Brighton on sea 🌊.
 
Brighton 5:40
the lucky last and the parallels between Brighton and Yarmouth are glaring, besides the rolling hills and downs. And of course the houses in the distance here look to be worth quite a few bob more. Besides all that the courses have a lot in common and satalite yard by the sea is another simile. 
Batchelor boy is going to be very popular for those who don’t check the aspects of conditions and the physics and the 5lb penalty may well be enough to stop “cliff”in his tracks and if not enough the going given that he hasn’t won on this ground. Defying a penalty also means you carry that defiance in the memory of the handicapper for a long long time and you won’t go under that mark again in a hurry. 
so who’s to benefit and set to be all going on a summer holiday?
step forward 
MARY OF MODENA
Win 5/1 or better
Fifty year storm 
2/1 or better
theres none better than Mary of Modena on these terms and drawn alongside side batchelor Boy and weighted directly above him  means she can take full advantage of the free energy and score here.
on a tasty mark and a short head win over Soul seeker reads very well in this company given that the previously high 80’ s rated runner subsequently won in class and followed up in a class four soon after . The ground looks to agree with the selection too given that the win was on soft too. Other factors include draw data and two nay three aspects of physics in the horse’s  favour. 
of course despite all that, horses with lots going for them often lose and those with plenty going against them, often win. You have to treat these twin imposters the same. Totally unexposed is the top weight ridden by Hollie Doyle but a beating, when favourite was mitigated by a crash into the rails pre race.  when the horse was not  withdrawn after vets say so ,a loss 2:25 lengths on soft perhaps was inevitable. Might well be one to avoid on the balance even though unexposed. But still  holds better chances than others at this level, so, under Hollie Doyle makes appeal as a small saver win bet.

Brighterdaysahead to win by 10.0 lengths or more @ 6/4
get in!! slide rule Sam!!!

Brighton 5:40
MARY OF MODENA
Win 5/1 or better
Fifty year storm 
2/1 or better
full write ✍️ up courtesy of the Hugh Taylor thread.

Brighterdaysahead to win by 10.0 lengths or more @ 6/4
get in!! slide rule Sam!!!

Stable switchers
HG        FT TT        Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike                        Aryaah         15:20        Brighton        Steele, Daniel        Hoad, M R        5%        10%        Y                Via Corone         19:00        Chelmsford City        Appleby, Charlie        Spiller, Henry        50%        12%                        Tio Mio         20:30        Chelmsford City        Hanmer, G D        French, Alex        0%        0%                        Royal Rhythm         16:10        Carlisle        Rothwell, P J        ONeill, Jonjo                14%                        Liberty Flame         16:10        Carlisle        Flood, Peter        Coltherd, W S                11%                        One Mill Harbour         16:45        Carlisle        Russell, Miss Lucinda V        Moffatt, James        11%        13%                        Present For Me        17:20        Carlisle        Thomas, Sam        Hunter, J K        16%                                Get A Superstar         17:20        Carlisle        ONeill, John F        Newland, Dr R D P                18%                        Plenty Of Time         13:30        Wincanton        Kelleway, Miss Gay        Hosie, Syd        3%   

My Chiquita 1:53 Wetherby (2/1 Bet365). Good hurdles debut and should improve, so sets a fair standard for the Jonjo one to aim at and has been strong in the market.
 
1pt win 2/1.
 
wins 🤑 fav got the last badly wrong but will obviously be winning soon.
 
 
p/l: 0

4.50 Nottingham - HIYA MAITE 6/1 Bet365  2nd 7/1 👎
I do like Bowrings horses at his local track Nottingham , this one has form on testing ground , maybe a little high in weight but if drifts will go in again each way if the 3 places remain.

Nottingham 1725
willingly
Rhubarb
both win
both heavy ground winners and both hold equal chances here.
mark ushers runner willingly sent back from latest yard on previous winning mark while rhubarb a course winner of much higher mark on this ground so likely certain to get trip just depends on quality of willinglys four length win over the same trip elsewhere.

Newcastle 1900
five year draw data 
Cori Glory
each way
PORT ERIN
Win
has to defy penalty here for last time out win.
cori glory makes track debut a winner in this grade at Beverley off lower mark and comes here totally unexposed. Interesting as the draw data horse.
third horse in this race of highly significant interest has to be the unexposed 
UTILIS
Win
formline through KARMOLOGY very strong indeed given his route to the table and the fact that Utilis marked has dropped while those he started out against has hit the 90s of real prominence given his proximity to karmology latest.
 

Placed 3rd 33/1 in the end 👍

Huntingdon
1548
Kay Tara Tara 
win
and to win by five plus length 
a massive drop in class from grade 2 bumper and bred to be a fluent jumper.

Yep business is business father rides horse which runs well then stops suddenly. son rides horse fluently to win for trainer whose ex spouse trains the runner up.
“primo Lara and loved by you should be battling this out with primo showing more on debut. The chapell  Hyams account for two of these and Sharona not out of this and while the trainers are not a team, business is business.”
Leicester 1525
ADAAY IN DEVON
win
even with the shenanigans of the last race it is hard to see this decent class dropper getting beat here. A galloping runner gets to meet these on level weights then has the comfort of a half stone weight advantage courtesy of winning jockeys massive claim. Two pounds would make a difference let alone seven  and would be massively disadvantaged in a handicap. The ground should further aid the cause here as this mud lover faces a main rival with  no wins on other than good ground.
 

Sporting Sam 

putting a different Hue on things.
The cats 🐈 away so the 🐁 will play!!
Hugh is away until 24 th October.
so once a day I will cover a race.
The difference will be
I will post a summary “at the post” minutes before the off to take advantage of any prevailing conditions, the going, one factor ignored totally by most and the physics, weather, market, withdrawals, going, late changes to jockeys conditions of horses etc.
 I will also announce the race in question plenty of time before the race takes place. ( half to one hour before)

Preseque isle downs 2214
late off
epic luck
each way
Bryce canyon 
win
purely on the visuals going to post 
*****************************
I was right about one of them. But that “one” Bryce Canyon was left for dead and had half a furlong to make up in the back straight and did just that rallying to get into a photo over third place, so clearly has some wayward ability if harnessed. 
Round up
Four winners
a  Japanese winner at 
Nagoya
Zentoyui @ 13/8
Familiar
won very well off the front for Irish trainer Kevin Condon at Clairefontaine. 
Two English winners
Assembled 9/1
Enchanted life
a few each ways 
verdansk
on yard debut ran very well to get into the mix.@14/1
first company (4th)
Buccaby 2nd
nutted!!!
Buccaby 
was held a head down under an eight pound rise for last win.
 

Preseque isle downs 2214
late off
epic luck
each way
Bryce canyon 
win
purely on the visuals going to post 
*****************************
I was right about one of them. But that “one” Bryce Canyon was left for dead and had half a furlong to make up in the back straight and did just that rallying to get into a photo over third place, so clearly has some wayward ability if harnessed. 
Round up
Four winners
a  Japanese winner at 
Nagoya
Zentoyui @ 13/8
Familiar
won very well off the front for Irish trainer Kevin Condon at Clairefontaine. 
Two English winners
Assembled 9/1
Enchanted life
a few each ways 
verdansk
on yard debut ran very well to get into the mix.@14/1
first company (4th)
Buccaby 2nd
nutted!!!
Buccaby 
was held a head down under an eight pound rise for last win.
 

Always disappointing when selectioning two if one doesn’t win but tardy starts did for both but summer of love was “one of the specials”.
 
kempton
1830
if
Enchanted life
win
is like his siblings and the rest of Charlie Appleby’s crop of two year olds he’ll take plenty of beating even on debut 
 
Lumiere D'or
each way ( Changed to win)
was around 6/1 now backed down to 7/2- 4/1
went around the houses and was given a learning ride on debut. Was behind a next time out winner four lengths second and subsequent group two runner.
“raced wide tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden and ran green over 1f out, edged left and stayed on to chase winner inside final furlong”

Gowran park 1550
Birthday Girl
miss molly T
Both each way
miss mt won her maiden this day, in 2021 rated 74 dropped 30 pounds and readily dismissed.
Birthday girl is a Noel Meade runner and sire Churchill has a decent record. Handicap debut and all winners of her races are operating off decent marks in better company.

kempton 5pm
 
Royal power 
win
yard flying again and can go close on debut bred through a group three winner

Windsor 5:20
ASSEMBLED
Each way
ASSENCE
Win