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marco3367 reacted to giraldi in How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?
I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players. In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player. Almost every time, especially top teams, play better than before. This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality
marco3367 got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in How would you adjust your rating when a player is out?
Thanks for your reply.
I know what you mean. As we all like to find value to bet, I still think those adjustment is quite important for us.
Take your Bilbao game as example, when a important forwards for them is out, market drifted from 1.9 to 2.8, here's a quite a big adjustment for the game,
so if we can find a way to measure the adjustment of that forward, we can know maybe the true odds of Bilbao should be 2.2 after the forward is out, and we can find 2.8 is a bet with value for us?.