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** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **

zabadac

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    zabadac got a reaction from giraldi in CgmBet System Software - (Exclusive PL Registered Forum Users 50% Discount Code)   
    Looks like an impressive piece of sosftware.
    What is the predictivity value it scores though ?
    Read about predictivity values and benchmarks here:
     


    I don't mean to be critical but I am critical of everything, because our task (to beat the bookies) is difficult, like the legendary hunting for the snark.
    It depends on this:
    Who are our opponents ?
    Let me tell you a story.
    Summer of 1986, Mexico world cup, early group stage. I go to a large department store for shopping, in Athens-Greece. At the exit they were giving the customers a piece of paper saying "predict todays match and enter our great competition". The prize was a motorbike and the match to guess was Costa Rica v. Scotland. So I thought "everyone will go for Scotland here, they are respected as a European force and they recently beat Greece in the preliminaries, but they have some problems in the scoring department and the Costa Ricans will defend heroically". So I ticked the draw box. 
    The match ended in a goalless draw so next morning I went to the shop to see what happened. What happened was that I was one of only eight who guessed correctly.
    Did n't win the bike but one among eight was impressive - the number of customers the previous day must have been 1000 and more, it was summer sales period as well.
    But these people were housewives, girls, grannies and so on. They did n't know about football.
    So my opponents were weak. If I was to bet against them everyday I would surely make lots of easy money !
    In the real world of betting it can never be like that. And indeed after I left the shop when I entered the competition, before going home I went to some football agent shops out of curiosity to see what they thought about Costa Rica versus Scotland. There it was different. The predictions were evenly matched between Scotland and the draw, with some 15% going for Costa Rica to win.
    So this proves to you then that it is all about the opposition. We want to outclass the bookies like I did with the customers of that department store !
    But this is an uphill struggle and although the efforts of the statisticians and software makers are commendable, they should be able to beat some quite difficult benchamrks in order to have any impact.
  2. Like
    zabadac got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in ELO Ratings and Probabilities   
    I see.
    But please do it, it will be useful.
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