philipwalsh19
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Posts posted by philipwalsh19
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Texas Houston Open tomorrow.
With Scheffler at 3.7 on Betfair he's the shortest price golfer outright in a tournament in the last 5 years (...and maybe beyond), so I'm looking for value elsewhere.
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/scottie-scheffler-odds-houston-open-2024
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Very welcome mate.
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Interesting thoughts, hadn’t realised he was due back. First thought is I’d rather be on Maupay to score at 9/4 than Toney at 5/4 and that Wood 3/1 is the most appealing price. Will take a closer look later.
For the Anytime goalscorer market you might have a point, as it may be asking a lot for Toney to play the full 90mins on his first game back - although you'd expect him to be back on penalties, even though Mbuemo was 3 from 3 in his absence.
If I was backing Toney I think I'd rather be on 3+ SoT @ 9/2 than anytime goalscorer at 5/4.
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I was wondering how the odds markets would react to Ivan Toney's return tomorrow.
I suspected that there may be a few factors at play
1. Toney himself will be chomping at the bit to make an impact. He might be more willing to take on shots from distance/angles that he might have passed up previously2. Punters may over-rate his ability to be anywhere near his best form after such a long break3. With all the press, bookies will take a lot of bets on him4. Bookies may (unwisely, from a PR perspective IMHO) try to capitalise on his return by offering Toney related specials. Let's see if any pop up tomorrow...I looked at the shot on target market. Based on last season's stats, these are his implied odds (decimal)
1+ SoT = 72.75% -> 1.37 (best odds: 1.33)
2+ SoT = 37.26% -> 2.68 (best odds: 1.6)
3+ SoT = 14.04% -> 7.1 (best odds: 5.5)
4+ SoT = 3.99% -> 25.06 (best odds: 15.0)I put the best bookies (not exchange) odds afterwards.
In terms of shots on target against, Forest concede just a shade over average - which makes using a 22/23 season average easier to swallow.
Is there any value there? Depends on what weight you'd give to the 4 factors above, plus others no doubt.
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On 9/8/2023 at 5:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:
I've backed over 5.5 reds @ 4/6 and bought red cards @ 6.8 on Sporting Index
Some reference stats...
Exactly half-way through the tournament and the over 5.5 red cards bet has hit already. 6 cards so far.
Anymore red cards from here and the spread bet starts paying out 💪🏻
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On 3/29/2023 at 1:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:
Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)Just catching up on this game
- xG - Lille (1.96) v Lorient (0.1)
- Lille won 3-1, but it was 1-1 until the 89th minute
- Half of Lille's xG came after Lorient's 79th minute red card
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Lorient were no threat at all. Even their goal was as much an offensive block as it was a shot
The xG numbers reflected Lille's dominance, but if you'd laid them and cashed out late you'd be on to a winner.
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Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend) -
I did an analysis of my world cup bets based on type of bet.
Not surprising to see I've been a net loser on the accas - many of which were loooong odds. And hammers home that the simpler I made it (in-play and pre-match singles) the more likely I was to turn a profit.
What rescued the tournament betting-wise for me were a few Argentina-orientated outright bets:
- Mbappe top scorer & Argentina outright winners @ 80/1
- Argentina WC winners, Messi golden ball, Martinez golden glove @ 80/1
I'd be in the red without those two.
The Masters 11th April
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted · Edited by harry_rag
Faint whiff of spam
Here's are my data-driven value picks for The Masters.
Link removed - effectively spam. @philipwalsh19 feel free to share some or all of your thoughts with us in a post on here but (unless you've sought and obtained permission in which case I apologise) I can't allow a post with no content beyond a link to a third party site.