jazzman45

@alani42Sorry I cannot post the excel
1. It is all generated in VBA (so it will only update from the user form)
2. It also contains lots of other data which I am unwilling to reveal (currently)
If you require help in creating your own sheet and need help with formulas then please ask and I will assist where possible
if you checkout the link posted 13th March this should give you a good starting point

For those that are interested I have been working on a new Selection method for next season which I hope will perform a bit better than I have done so far this season ( That being said all selections backed are only showing a loss of 3.85pts from 112 selections)The above stat has convinced me that there is hope in the selection method.
The new selections will be rated using the same criteria as the original i.e 3 lowest pts from both home and away
but it will use a new rating method (Highest being the selection) The new Rating method will use Goals per game and Points per game this combined with table positions and games being won give the selection Back testing over the last 2 seasons is looking promising although it does not always make a selection even when their are enough qualifying games in the round.(for my own personal use it also displays Home and away stats for the game when a Game is clicked in the list) see below image
I will carry on posting the original selections as promised until the end of the season.
Hopefully I will be able to start next season with the new selection method more than likely under a different thread
any comments or ideas are welcome
 

Thanks Ken for the great effort.
I am interested in the new spreadsheets, of course.
Just some comments about the methodology, I know that for any selections to be made, the Home and Away team must have played at least 4 Home games and 4 Away games respectively. Here's the idea:
if a team has performed so well and scored so many goals at the beginning of the seasons, that team should easily outrank other team in the rating list, but if, for some reasons (e.g. due to tight schedule or many injuries on the team etc.), the team under-performs for some weeks, your method might NOT be able to detect this. Besides, given the fact that that team might score a lot in earlier games of the season, the cumulative goals would make it easily outrank other teams, which leads to the possibility that the games played by this kind of team will almost always get a selection. But this might not be the best selection as that team might have under-performed for a few weeks (likewise, teams that didn't score many in the earlier of the seasons might have some weeks that over-performed and scored many goals), put it simply, the spreadsheet cannot take these scenarios into considerations.
So is that possible to just rank the teams by the last 4 Home games' and 4 Away games' record? If we can just consider the last 4 games that being played, might be the spreadsheets can then take the above factors into considerations and make better, or even more accurate selections.
Just some thoughts that came up in my mind, been tracking this thread for some time, hope it helps.
Again, appreciate your great work, Ken!
   

The Basis of the program is to look at the league in rounds
All games need to be rated but you add but you add results as they happen as this can change the selection Sometimes not all games in the round can be entered because they have been postponed (Champions league,Europa bad weather ect) Do not enter these games
If you look at my Postings then for example Premiership this week all games played in round have been rated
The round = games played 24th 25th and 26th results are entered as they are known this sometimes changes the selection or gives a second selection in the League (examples of which have been posted)
 using the last 4 will often give a different ranking (uses a different formula) than the ranking that is uses ALL games
see example from my program below The sheet I posted replicates only the Over/Under selections and the last 4 Games
program below has calculated Tuesdays Championship selection and if you enter ALL games you should get the same

different selection for last 4 games over ( this was added for Jazzman45)

Hope that explains this a little more clearly
What does concern me is that your screen shot is missing Rankings for Din Bucuresti and CFR Cluj
are the formulas still in the sheet have both teams played more than 4 home games or 4 away games
if you spend a little time reading through the posts you may understand the concept a little better

Hi All Today's Over 2.5 selections below ( Championship you should have entered Last nights result if using your own sheet)
Note Home Away columns showing league position Home/Away games (not used in calculations)
Remember to Update results after early Kick off's it may generate another selection. If it does then I will post
I am off for a break next week if I get chance I will post selections but they may be late




Under 2.5 below these are not selections just for info

Ken
 

Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts.
I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends
I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up
 

Ken

@jazzman45Hi There I see what you are saying and after I have compiled the sheet to take into account the under games I will have a look at seeing how much work is involved in creating a sheet that looks at the last 4 games it should be possible . I think you will find the Over/Under info quite interesting. as it looks at percentages for Home and Away games > 2.5 Home and Away games BTTS  Home and Away wins > 2.5. ( it does not use the ranking method to make selections)and I have spotted some trends that will need investigating
Just a thought have you considered just entering the last 4 home games and last 4 away games in the fixtures and results tab.
League table would be wrong but the goals ranking would be correct for you. I would make a copy of your sheet before changing anything but you could test your theory.I would be interested in your findings.
I am going to stick with the current selection method until the end of the season as I am fairly confident that it works.
Hopefully I will have the over under sheet ready for Friday and will post the link when done.
Thank you for your kind words and ideas

Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording
the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)
If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.
No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend

Hi All
To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)



So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)


Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5
Will keep you updated.
Ken
 
 

Well Saturday was a bit of a washout 2 Losers ( Exeter had a goal disallowed in 2nd Half)
But Newport Came up trumps ( Not a selection just watching and gathering data)
Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at historical Data and back testing some theory's I have now built into the module Over 2.5 which I will keep posting as selections Plus Home win over 2.5 goals and Away win plus over 2.5 goals I have also added Under 2.5 goals. The other selections are for watching only!. Included in the table will be 2 extra columns Average Shots Against  Home and Away (data not currently used)
Lets see what weekend brings as we are now including Premiership games now they have played 4 home and away
(Excluding Tottenham and Watford Games only 3)

Tonight's Game Ratings
Sheff Utd v West Brom is the selection
Shots on Target Ratings (NOT a selection Just watching)
 Same game both teams with low ratings
Last nights results 2 games Both over 2.5
The 2 shots on target games Both over 3.5 but again the interesting one Scnuthorpe win and over 2.5
I will keep recording the Shots on Target model
 
Regards
Ken

Hi all after doing a bit more research regarding shots on target I came across the below very interesting link
https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com/2013/1/11/3857360/analysis-shots-vs-shots-on-target
After doing a little studying I decided to build my take of this idea into my model and the 3 games it gave me were
Note These are not being posted as selections as the model was made AFTER the result was known
 result 2-3
 result 1-3
 result 3-1
What I find interesting is not that all 3 were over 2.5 goals nor that they were all over 3.5 goals
What jumped out at me was the two games that had the lower rating in red
Quote from earlier post
"I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)"
Barnsley won (lower rating)
Crawley Town won (lower rating)
Preston v West Brom Both had low ratings
Is there an opportunity here to perhaps Back Win and over 2.5 goals ?
I will be keeping a close eye on this one and will keep you updated