Jump to content
** January Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd avongirl, 3rd Rav **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st mickyftm32, 2nd Tiffy, 3rd Cauncie, 4th Alley Cat Glover, 5th Larkin22 **
** January Naps Competition Result: 1st Craig bluenose, 2nd Gary66, 3rd 1945harry. KO Cup Winner Wanderlust. Most Winners CS 333 **
Attention, PL Members! To reinforce security on the forum, we have updated our login process. Please note that you will now need to use your email address to sign in, rather than your forum username. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.

jazzman45

New Members
  • Posts

    5
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    @alani42Sorry I cannot post the excel
    1. It is all generated in VBA (so it will only update from the user form)
    2. It also contains lots of other data which I am unwilling to reveal (currently)
    If you require help in creating your own sheet and need help with formulas then please ask and I will assist where possible
    if you checkout the link posted 13th March this should give you a good starting point
  2. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    For those that are interested I have been working on a new Selection method for next season which I hope will perform a bit better than I have done so far this season ( That being said all selections backed are only showing a loss of 3.85pts from 112 selections)The above stat has convinced me that there is hope in the selection method.
    The new selections will be rated using the same criteria as the original i.e 3 lowest pts from both home and away
    but it will use a new rating method (Highest being the selection) The new Rating method will use Goals per game and Points per game this combined with table positions and games being won give the selection Back testing over the last 2 seasons is looking promising although it does not always make a selection even when their are enough qualifying games in the round.(for my own personal use it also displays Home and away stats for the game when a Game is clicked in the list) see below image
    I will carry on posting the original selections as promised until the end of the season.
    Hopefully I will be able to start next season with the new selection method more than likely under a different thread
    any comments or ideas are welcome
     

  3. Like
    jazzman45 got a reaction from YoungBishop in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Thanks Ken for the great effort.
    I am interested in the new spreadsheets, of course.
    Just some comments about the methodology, I know that for any selections to be made, the Home and Away team must have played at least 4 Home games and 4 Away games respectively. Here's the idea:
    if a team has performed so well and scored so many goals at the beginning of the seasons, that team should easily outrank other team in the rating list, but if, for some reasons (e.g. due to tight schedule or many injuries on the team etc.), the team under-performs for some weeks, your method might NOT be able to detect this. Besides, given the fact that that team might score a lot in earlier games of the season, the cumulative goals would make it easily outrank other teams, which leads to the possibility that the games played by this kind of team will almost always get a selection. But this might not be the best selection as that team might have under-performed for a few weeks (likewise, teams that didn't score many in the earlier of the seasons might have some weeks that over-performed and scored many goals), put it simply, the spreadsheet cannot take these scenarios into considerations.
    So is that possible to just rank the teams by the last 4 Home games' and 4 Away games' record? If we can just consider the last 4 games that being played, might be the spreadsheets can then take the above factors into considerations and make better, or even more accurate selections.
    Just some thoughts that came up in my mind, been tracking this thread for some time, hope it helps.
    Again, appreciate your great work, Ken!
       
  4. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    The Basis of the program is to look at the league in rounds
    All games need to be rated but you add but you add results as they happen as this can change the selection Sometimes not all games in the round can be entered because they have been postponed (Champions league,Europa bad weather ect) Do not enter these games
    If you look at my Postings then for example Premiership this week all games played in round have been rated
    The round = games played 24th 25th and 26th results are entered as they are known this sometimes changes the selection or gives a second selection in the League (examples of which have been posted)
     using the last 4 will often give a different ranking (uses a different formula) than the ranking that is uses ALL games
    see example from my program below The sheet I posted replicates only the Over/Under selections and the last 4 Games
    program below has calculated Tuesdays Championship selection and if you enter ALL games you should get the same

    different selection for last 4 games over ( this was added for Jazzman45)

    Hope that explains this a little more clearly
    What does concern me is that your screen shot is missing Rankings for Din Bucuresti and CFR Cluj
    are the formulas still in the sheet have both teams played more than 4 home games or 4 away games
    if you spend a little time reading through the posts you may understand the concept a little better
  5. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Hi All Today's Over 2.5 selections below ( Championship you should have entered Last nights result if using your own sheet)
    Note Home Away columns showing league position Home/Away games (not used in calculations)
    Remember to Update results after early Kick off's it may generate another selection. If it does then I will post
    I am off for a break next week if I get chance I will post selections but they may be late




    Under 2.5 below these are not selections just for info

    Ken
     
  6. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts.
    I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends
    I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up
     

    Ken
  7. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    @jazzman45Hi There I see what you are saying and after I have compiled the sheet to take into account the under games I will have a look at seeing how much work is involved in creating a sheet that looks at the last 4 games it should be possible . I think you will find the Over/Under info quite interesting. as it looks at percentages for Home and Away games > 2.5 Home and Away games BTTS  Home and Away wins > 2.5. ( it does not use the ranking method to make selections)and I have spotted some trends that will need investigating
    Just a thought have you considered just entering the last 4 home games and last 4 away games in the fixtures and results tab.
    League table would be wrong but the goals ranking would be correct for you. I would make a copy of your sheet before changing anything but you could test your theory.I would be interested in your findings.
    I am going to stick with the current selection method until the end of the season as I am fairly confident that it works.
    Hopefully I will have the over under sheet ready for Friday and will post the link when done.
    Thank you for your kind words and ideas
  8. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording
    the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)
    If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.
    No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend
  9. Thanks
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Hi All
    To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
    Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)



    So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
    Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)


    Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5
    Will keep you updated.
    Ken
     
     
  10. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Well Saturday was a bit of a washout 2 Losers ( Exeter had a goal disallowed in 2nd Half)
    But Newport Came up trumps ( Not a selection just watching and gathering data)
    Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at historical Data and back testing some theory's I have now built into the module Over 2.5 which I will keep posting as selections Plus Home win over 2.5 goals and Away win plus over 2.5 goals I have also added Under 2.5 goals. The other selections are for watching only!. Included in the table will be 2 extra columns Average Shots Against  Home and Away (data not currently used)
    Lets see what weekend brings as we are now including Premiership games now they have played 4 home and away
    (Excluding Tottenham and Watford Games only 3)
  11. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Tonight's Game Ratings
    Sheff Utd v West Brom is the selection
    Shots on Target Ratings (NOT a selection Just watching)
     Same game both teams with low ratings
    Last nights results 2 games Both over 2.5
    The 2 shots on target games Both over 3.5 but again the interesting one Scnuthorpe win and over 2.5
    I will keep recording the Shots on Target model
     
    Regards
    Ken
  12. Like
    jazzman45 reacted to Kentucky110 in Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method   
    Hi all after doing a bit more research regarding shots on target I came across the below very interesting link
    https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com/2013/1/11/3857360/analysis-shots-vs-shots-on-target
    After doing a little studying I decided to build my take of this idea into my model and the 3 games it gave me were
    Note These are not being posted as selections as the model was made AFTER the result was known
     result 2-3
     result 1-3
     result 3-1
    What I find interesting is not that all 3 were over 2.5 goals nor that they were all over 3.5 goals
    What jumped out at me was the two games that had the lower rating in red
    Quote from earlier post
    "I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)"
    Barnsley won (lower rating)
    Crawley Town won (lower rating)
    Preston v West Brom Both had low ratings
    Is there an opportunity here to perhaps Back Win and over 2.5 goals ?
    I will be keeping a close eye on this one and will keep you updated
     
×
×
  • Create New...