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captainlucky

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Posts posted by captainlucky

    7 furlong angles

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, corky said:

    I’ve been watching this since you posted,

    david loughname has had 3 runners,2 winners and an unplaced

    only runners on "flat turf" and "2 runs in last 90 days" as was written in original post. and since 31st of march he's not had turf runners at all, and only one 7 furlong runner that won on all weather.

    Profitable rates of return

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by captainlucky

    I messaged ormonde about his service and he gave me a link. I'm not going to subscribe (I have an inability to pay for someone else to give me my horses) and enjoy the puzzle too much myself too, but a higher return on investment is better than a lower one no matter the sample size. OK judging on 10 or 20 is stupid but 19,263 isn't really a true reflection either as this site picks in every race but I doubt would advise backing every selection, it's just for information purposes if you like. Now take their nap selections for a year versus ormonde for a year. Haha now that is a battle perhaps worth seeing. @BillyHills & @ormonde how about a year long battle both of you post your selections up on here? Or from May the 1st for the whole flat season? Just an idea, A guy on here said he's that good, and I for one am dubious of those kinds of people, how about it guys?

    7 furlong angles

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Alastair said:

     I appreciate you will have done a fair bit of research for this, and others will have their views, but the rate of profitability with a profit of 232 from stakes of 180 for a rate of profit of just under 130% looks unsustainably high and suggests that this might just be a case of backfitting past results to produce a desired result.

    You might like to look at my post regarding rates of return on betting.

    Anyway good luck if you are pursuing this.

    Yes I understand what you mean. But facts remain that they have got good records in races considered specialist distance. Also back fitting can be called when a trainer has won 4 of the last five running's of a particular race, but everyone still looks at that. I'm not looking to double my money on those trainers this season. If they happen to perform to a fraction of the results I posted and overall I make 20-25% return on stakes, that would be good enough for me.

    I am going to post any runners under those rules for this season just for an interest really. But totally understand where you're coming from, Alistair.  

    Naps - Tuesday April 3rd

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    13 hours ago, captainlucky said:

    Fairyhouse 4:10 GRAN GESTE 17/2 Ladbrokes Coral

    Profiled this race, the last 10 winners have carried 11-01 or less. 8 of those winners had 2 to 4 runs in the last 3 months. That got the 22 runners down to a shortlist of 10 and from that GRAN GESTE was the only on to have already won on heavy going. So am happy to side with him. 

    Am I allowed to post a reserve in the 5:30 Lingfield, even though I never posted it in original post? If so my pick is OUR CILLA 16/1 Bet365 Ladbrokes

    Naps - Tuesday April 3rd

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    Fairyhouse 4:10 GRAN GESTE 17/2 Ladbrokes Coral

    Profiled this race, the last 10 winners have carried 11-01 or less. 8 of those winners had 2 to 4 runs in the last 3 months. That got the 22 runners down to a shortlist of 10 and from that GRAN GESTE was the only on to have already won on heavy going. So am happy to side with him. 

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