_Ghost_

After landing the draw trixie in the QFs i'm going again on the 2 Euro semis and Uruguay v Colombia in the Copa America semi

I've played both a draw and no first goalscorer trixie in containing Spain v Germany, Portugal v France and England v Switzerland.

Updated projections now the knockout bracket is set..

I'll have an early nibble of the draw in Czech v Turkey @ 12/5... results in Group C tonight could produce a scenario were a draw sees both teams through

Updated projections after the first round of matches...

Having had a quick look at this - either the Spex price or the Unibet price is wrong.. I'd go with Uni being wrong. Looking at the maths if we assume GS matches will average 38 booking points and KOs 42, as a rough estimate I'd stick England in for 44% of books in their matches, using their percentage chance of featuring in each phase (from my model) I'd have England in for 92 booking points, that doesn't take into account any ET booking points, Spex midpoint is 103, and given that the market favours England more than my model I'm happy that the Spex price is about right - certainly in the right ball park. Even though England are below average in terms of card gatherers in competitive matches v Top 100 in the last couple of years, taking into account teams will play a disproportionate number of matches I think it's worth chancing them at 25/1 for small stakes

Never mind.. got it

Am I being blind or have they removed this market?

Unfortunately corners/ books are not something that I price/ model for long term markets - the reason being is they would slow my model down quite considerably. But based on what you've said that certainly sounds like a bet that warrants further investigation at the very least

Some stat packs broken down by group.. (competitive matches v current FIFA Top 100 since 09/20)

Each team's record in 90 mins across the last 4 major tournaments (Euro 2016/ 2020 and World Cup 2018/ 2022)

New Members 425 Posted just now Here's a Team by Team grid of prices from my model (some prices my vary from original post due to re-running the sim) ...and 1 single simulation to show the affect of randomness on a tournament (for those unfamiliar with models basically I do this 5,000 and record the result, and by I I mean Excel 😂)

Here's a Team by Team grid of prices from my model (some prices my vary from original post due to re-running the sim) ...and 1 single simulation to show the affect of randomness on a tournament (for those unfamiliar with models basically I do this 5,000 and record the result, and by I I mean Excel 😂)

Yeah the maths is always a starting point for me, worth remembering tho that any algorithm is only as good as the numbers you plug in and perhaps more importantly football isn't played on spreadsheets 😂

However... i've just plugged in Sporting Index goals for Ronaldo and Belgium along with their rough headed goal % and this bring s the price down to 90/1