Rainbow-Bet

Valencia - Atletico Madrid (06.03.2016)
Bet of the Day is picked from Spain and la Liga, and the fantastic Estadio Mestalla. The home team Valencia welcomes second placed Atletico Madrid. This is Gary Neville vs Diego Simeone. Valencia has performed better the last couple of weeks, after a horrible start of the league season, while Atletico is continuing winning and doesn't concede goals.
 
Gary Neville's Valencia is on a disappointing 9th place in the league, the home stats shows poor 4-7-2 at Mestalla. After a 8-1 exit (over two legs) against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, it's now the league in focus for Valencia. Are through to the next round in Europa League after a 10-0 (two matches) win over Rapid Wien, but this tournament isn't the priority for Neville's men. In the last league matches they won against Granada 1-2, lost against Athletic Bilbao 0-3 and took a quite strong 1-2 win against Malaga.
 
Many will describe the last couple of weeks as a turning point for Valencia, and the results will keep getting better, but the opponents in the last weeks hasn't been the strongest, a big test is ahead of Neville for tonight as they face the «Rojiblancos» from Madrid. Valencia meets an opponent that is difficult to play against, and a massive task to try to break down/create chances against. Zakaria Bakkali (midfield) is injured for the hosts, while Jose Gaya (defender) is suspended.
 
Expected lineup Valencia:
 
Alves
Barragan – Mustafi – Santos – Cancelo
Gomes – Fuego
Feghouli – Parejo – Cheryshev
Paco
 
Diego Simeone keeps on cultivating Atletico's style of play. The team seems comfortable in any match scenarios, their passing rate is good and their defense are quite amazing. The red and white from Madrid sits on a 2nd place in the league, and the away stats shows great 10-1-3. Have only conceded 5 goals in their 14 away matches, that's impressing and gives an average of 0,35 goals conceded each away match.
 
The back four with Juanfran, Gimenez, Godin and Filippe Luis have been rock solid this season, Diego Simeone's first priority is to create a strong and safe defensive line...His job is done. Especially 30 years old Diego Godin has been the most impressing at the back, and must be concidering as on of the best centre backs in Europe this season.
 
The away side was knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Celta Vigo, and since then they've lost 2-1 against Barcelona. Thereafter wins against Eibar and Getafe, 0-0 home against Villarreal and a very strong 0-1 win against rivals Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu. In their last match the easily won 3-0 at home against Real Sociedad. Tiago (midfield) and Stefan Savic (defender) are out injured for the guests, while Augusto Fernandez (midfield) is suspended.
 
Expected lineup Atletico Madrid:
 
Oblak
Juanfran – Gimenez – Godin – Filipe Luis
Koke – Gabi – Ferreira-Carrasco – Niguez
Vietto – Griezmann
 
We're surprised over the odds value for a Atletico win, at the moment at 2.00 (1/1), and an away win is without doubt our Bet of the Day. Regardless of how Gary Neville and his Valencia will approach this game, they will face challenges. No one dare to press too high up field against Atletico because of the spaces left behind in the back, at the same time Valencia will have problems breaking through a tight and disciplined back four of Atletico.
 
 
Valencia – Atletico Madrid 2
2.00   Unibet
2.00   Bet365
1.95   bwin
2.02   Pinnacle
2.00   BetVictor
1.95   Betsafe
1.96   bet-at-home

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It will be guaranteed action and sound from the stands, and we'll se an Athletic Bilbao side fighting for revenge as they take on Barcelona at San Mames in Copa del Rey 1.leg today. Kick off at 21.00 (CET). The home team was outclassed by Barcelona at Camp Nou in the league only three days ago, the final score became ugly 6-0. Valverde's men will play with extreme passion today, and hope to get a good result before the 2.leg at Camp Nou.
 
Athletic Bilbao has been really strong in the league so far, as usual it's home at San Mames they impress. Sits on a 9th place in la Liga, but at home they've got 5-2-2. Only Barcelona (0-1) and Real Madrid (1-2) have taken home three points from Basque County this season, that was back in respectively August and September.
 
Athletic boss Ernesto Valverde rested both Ander Iturraspe (midfield), Markel Susaeta (midfield) in the 6-0 loss against Barcelona in the weekend, besides top goalscorer Aritz Aduriz was suspended in that match but he's back today. We shouldn't look so much at the result, Athletic goalkeeper Iraizoz was sent off after just 5 minutes of play, Barcelona got a penalty and thereafter it was an easy task for The Catalans with 11 against 10.
 
Only unavailable player for Athletic Bilbao is injured Raul Garcia (striker). This team is very strong without injuries. Strength with Laporte in the back four, an elegant deep playmaker in Benat, a very promising and fearless Inaki Williams in the midfield, and of course the top goalscorer Aduriz, who are extremely important for The Basques.
 
Expected lineup Athletic Bilbao:
 
Herrerin
de Marcos – Laporte – Etxeita – Balenziaga
Iturraspe – Benat
Inaki Williams – Eraso – Susaeta
Aduriz
 
Luis Enrique's Barcelona is on a 2nd place in the league, amazing home stats at Camp Nou, but away from home the numbers are mediocre 4-2-2. Enerique says at the press conference ahead of the game, that this is going to be whole different game than at the weekend. «It's always difficult when you come to San Mames to play, with a home team seeking revenge with the crown at their backs.»
 
Barcelona got problems ahead of this match, there will be changes in the starting eleven. Rafinha (midfield) and Jeremy Mathieu (defender) are out injured. On the offensive Barcelona will miss out Luis Suarez (spiss) who is suspended, Suarez has been outstanding this season and is of course very important for this Barca side. But the problems are bigger, Lionel Messi will probably start on the bench, manager Enrique explained that Messi has some sort of soreness, but are not injured. Messi will probably be rested from start in this match. Then it's only Neymar left from «the trefoil» at top for the visitors. This is a good advantage for Athletic Bilbao. There are also 2.legs to be played in Copa del Rey, and Barca's got a good opportunity to repair a loss at home in the 2.leg.
 
Expected lineup Barcelona:
 
ter Stegen
Alves – Pique – Mascherano – Alba
Rakitic – Busquets – Iniesta
El Haddadi – Arda Turan – Neymar
 
We see a good value on a home win in the cup today. It will be a crazy atmosphere in The Basque County and a huge working-rate from the home side, who will show their supporters what they can do home at San Mames. Because of 2 legs in the cup and the offensive absence of Barcelona, we don't believe Barcelona should be so big favourites today as the bookmakers believes. Athletic Bilbao also got rested players back like Iturraspe, Susaeta and their top goalscorer Aduriz. The last 5 meetings at San Mames between these two clubs shows: 2 Athletic Bilbao wins and 3 Barcelona wins. We bet on a home win in The Basque County.
 
 
 

Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona          1

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Today is another quarterfinal in Copa del Rey. Sevilla takes on Mirandés at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, kick off 21.00 (CET), this is the 1.leg of 2. The winner after two matches will meet either Celta Vigo or Atletico Madrid in the semifinal.
 
Sevilla continues winning in la Liga, they have 4 wins in a row now, and 9 wins in a row at home in all touraments. The last pointless home match was back in November, when Manchester City won 1-3 at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in the Champions League group stage. Sevilla is on a 7th place in the league, a little bit under the expectations, the third best home team in la Liga (behind Barcelona and Real Madrid) with 9-0-2. Only Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid have taken points point from Sevilla at home in the league. Manager Unai Emery and his Sevilla side has beaten strong opponents like Juventus, Real Madrid and Barcelona at home this season, it tells us about a strong home team, who are stable and plays with a lot of confidence in front of the own supporters. Knocked out Logrones and Real Betis so far in Copa del Rey.
 
Sevilla probably starts with a fantastic strong starting eleven in this match, we are not in doubt that they will win against the Segunda Division side with good margin at home today. The home side have a good depth in their squad, as well as quality, they have the possibility to rotate on the starting eleven in the league as well as the cup without any problems. Manager Emery will probably make 8 changes from the last match in la Liga against Malaga, only Rico (goalkeeper), Rami (defender) and Banega (midfield) played last Saturday.
 
Nicolas Pareja (defender) and Marco Andreolli (defender) are injured for the hosts.
 
Expected lineup Sevilla:
 
Rico
Mariano – Rami – Kolodziejczak – Escudero
Iborra – N'Zonzi
Reyes – Banega – Konoplyanka
Llorente
 
The away team are dreaming of a semifinal place in Copa del Rey, but first this difficult task waits for them. Mirandés have knocked out Real Oviedo, Osasuna and the two la Liga sides Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna, great achievement. Is on a 11th place in Segunda Division, with an away stats at 4-3-4.
 
The away side have a small squad which includes only 22 players, 3 of these are goalkeepers. Tried to rest a few first-team players in their last league match against Leganes, the match ended in an ugly 4-0 defeat away from home. Abdon Prats (striker), Marco Sagalli (midfield) and important Junior Lago (midfield) started on the bench in that match, and are all expected to play today.
 
Expected lineup Mirandés:
 
Fernandez
Moreno – Ortiz – Cantero
Eguaras – Lazaro – Salinas – Provencio
Garcia – Prats – Sangalli
 
This match will show the difference in quality from these two sides, unfortunately we think the cup adventure for Mirandés is over after todays match. We think Mirandés can be vulnerable if they choose to play with a threeback line, as they did against Deportivo La Coruna. With Reyes and Konoplyanka who can challenge on the wings as well as in the middle, the away team can be in big trouble on Sevilla breaks or counter attacks. Banega will be important in the match, a deep midfielder who dictates the tempo and passes the ball around, also a rested Llorente who are extremely good in the air, could create problems for Mirandés.
 
We bet on a home win to Sevilla at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán with European Handicap, Sevilla must win with at least 2 goals more than Mirandés for the bet to be won. The odds are around 1.70 on the market.
 
 
Sevilla – Mirandés 1 (EH -1) (0-1)