Aristillus
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Posts posted by Aristillus
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new managers have a big effect...I believe they do, but I also believe that to look for stark indicators showing immediate effect that they do will not be so forthcoming. The effect of a new manager is a sublime long-term effect, even if there there are indicators in the past that show a team to generally win the first game with a new manager in charge. You will see better indicators out of the season overall rather than at the start of the new relationship.
Ultimately, it is down to how the players as a team respond to the ideas and strategies of the new manager, and the confidence they have in him. With the first game in charge, most players will up their game in order to give a good impression, and even though form may be indicated to improve, the ability to keep improved form consistent shows whether or not the relationship is a good one.
A typical example is the game tonight between Cardiff and Bristol Rovers. Bristol will not go to Cardiff to follow the Cardiff script of having a new manager and new players, but to write their own script for an away win. I think the best Cardiff could do tonight would be to achieve a draw against a strong and in form Bristol City side, but if I was going to bet on this game, I would still go for the away win.
Cardiff - CTP = 15.7
Bristol City - CTP = 32.4
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The League Two Graph suggests the following:
Leyton Orient - Away Win : Result - Away Win
Accrington - Home Win : Result - Home win
Cambridge - Away Win : Result - Away Win
Carlisle - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Cheltenham - Away Win : Result - Home Win
Doncaster - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Barnet - Home Win : Result - Away win
Mansfield - Home Win : Result - Draw
Morcambe - Draw : Result - Away Win
Notts County - Away Win : Result - Draw
Plymouth - Home Win : Result - Draw
Yeovil - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Only 6 out of 12. Normally I don't touch League Two, and I'm going to stick to this principle in future.
Regards
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Normally I do not entertain League Two as the form is generally all over the place. Most the teams cannot maintain consistency of form, so the stats often show many false positives. Nevertheless, for those who bet on League Two teams, these are for you.
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The graph I provided earlier suggests the following:
Oxford - Away Win : Result - Home Win
Wimbledon - Away Win : Result - Draw
Bristol Rovers - Home Win : Result - Home win
Charlton - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Fleetwood - Draw : Result - Home win
Northampton - Home Win : Result - Away Win
Bolton - Away Win - Result : Home Win
Rochdale - Away Win : Result - Home Win
Scunthorpe - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Sheff Utd - Home Win : Result - Home Win
Southend - Draw : Result - Home Win
Walsall - Home Win : Result - Home Win
The goal of my endeavours is to be able to achieve a minimum consistent accuracy level of 7 out of 12 correct each round of matches. This so that I can give a confident guide for picking a small accumulator selection (of no more than 5 matches) to increase the odds for the accumulator coming right.
Today's results, 5 out of 12 is not good enough, and it is the lowest I have achieved so far this season. Millwall's win at Northampton was completely against the grain. Must do better.
Regards
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The form graph I provided earlier suggests the following:
Cardiff - Away Win : Result - Home Win
Forest - Away win : Result - Home Win
Barnsley - Away win : Result - Away Win
Blackburn - Away Win : Result - Draw
Brighton - Home Win : Result - Draw
Derby - Away Win : Result - Home Win
Newcastle - Home Win - Result - Home Win
Norwich - Home Win - Result - Home Win
QPR - Away Win : Result - Draw
Wigan - Home win : Result - Draw
Aston Villa - Draw : Result - Draw
Huddersfield - Home win
This is why I hate international breaks, they upset the momentum gathered by teams and tend to reset form. If Huddersfield win tomorrow, that will be 5 out of 12 correct. No good at all!
Regards
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Here is a League One Form Chart for your perusal by which you can make an informed judgement when placing your bet.
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Now that Championship football is back after the rather banal and boring international break, I'd like to offer the following for perusal. It's a unique look at form for each team for the match they are to play. You can use it to make informed bets. It is currently running at a consistent accuracy of around 65% to 70%. That is 7 out 12.
The international break has upset momentum, and there have been changes to personnel, so you will have to factor these into your judgement.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 10th & 11th Hi There, A couple of my posts that amended errors in my earlier post have been deleted, so the errors are still showing. Both Derby and Ipswich are suggested to be 'Home Wins', and not 'Away Wins'.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 10th & 11th Hi There, Bringing something of a different way of looking at things to the table. Before I look at what bet to place, I always look at the matches and the probable expectation of either a 'Home Win', 'Draw', or 'Away Win' result. So, based on this thinking, I always prioritise the match, and not the bet. Here are my probable results with their ratings. Needless to say, these are not predictions, but expectations, and offer no guarantee of being right. --------------------Win----------Draw Brighton----------11.4%--------17.5% Bournemouth----49.5%--------17.5%----Away Win -------------------------------------------------------- Fulham-----------33.9%--------25.9% Wigan------------31.2%--------25.9%----Draw --------------------------------------------------- Derby------------41.6%--------20.6% Brentford--------18.8%--------20.6%----Away Win -------------------------------------------------------- Birmingham-----26.9%--------25.6% Wolves----------38.2%--------25.6%----Draw or Away Win ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bolton-----------25.6%--------24.4% Norwich---------38.7%--------24.4%----Draw or Away Win ----------------------------------------------------------------- Ipswich---------59.0%--------12.9% Blackpool-------4.4%---------12.9%-----Away Win -------------------------------------------------------- Leeds-----------32.9%--------32.8% Cardiff----------31.6%--------32.8%-----Draw -------------------------------------------------- Middlesbrough-63.4%--------18.4% Rotherham-----5.4%---------18.4%-----Home win ------------------------------------------------------- Millwall---------9.3%---------14.8% Watford--------47.1%--------14.8%-----Away Win ------------------------------------------------------- Nottm Forest--40.9%--------18.2% Huddersfield---15.6%--------18.2%-----Home Win -------------------------------------------------------- Reading--------32.4%--------28.2% Blackburn------33.5%--------28.2%-----Draw -------------------------------------------------- Sheff Wed-----28.2%--------38.7% Charlton-------32.0%--------38.7%-----Draw ------------------------------------------------- I include other elements that I look at and evaluate before I make these figures of probability, but I claim no veracity for their ultimate accuracy. I place them here for guidance only. Best wishes and good luck.
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Re: Ante-Post > Championship Promotion 2014/15 After going over my stats for this season, and with only five games to go, a somewhat belated preliminary prediction is as follows:- Champions - BOURNEMOUTH - 92 points 2nd spot Runners up - WATFORD - 91 points Play off teams: NORWICH - 89 points MIDDLESBROUGH - 85 points WOLVES - 84 points DERBY - 80 points Regards all
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > 6-7 Apr
What your talking about mate. Nearly all fav won - Watford' date='Derby, Bouremouth, Wolves, Norwich?[/quote'] Yeah, who'd a thunk it? I bet on all the favourites (as they are being called), each game individually, and made a small profit. From small acorns and all that, eh? -
Re: Football Betting - A Philosophical Approach
Hi Froment, Many thanks for your reply. :ok I agree with the premise that the reason for betting is to win the bet and collect the profit as well as the stake back. Today, sees the first time I make a profit. It is small, but has returned an amount 6 times that which I bet, so it is a start.:nana Basically, I am using the little shrewdness that I possess. I do not doubt that there are many people here whom have been betting for quite a while, and understand the betting systems to such an extent that they win as often as they lose. Good on them. :ok I only use Poisson as a visual guide, whereby I can see in an instance the better probability. Today, I gave probable predictions and gained 6 out of 9 correct results, so an accuracy of 66%. Fortunately, instead of betting on an accumulator, which I normally do, I bet on individual games, and made a small profit, which to me is encouraging. I am not blessed with an understanding for the many betting systems I have seen on this forum, nor do I have the money to play big, but as long as I can continue to collect more than what I lose, I will count myself a winner. Of course, it will look as if Poisson picks the favourite, but in the true sense of things, Poisson isn't picking anything, it is just presenting factual data on teams and their past performance. It is just a means to organise the data into some sort of useability. Poisson doesn't predict anything, no system does, it is we humans that make the predictions because of our faculty of anticipation. I suppose there are mathematical avenues one can use to spread one's bets out in order to bring about a profitable margin, but I don't currently understand them, yet I know they cannot be 'predictive'...only probable. When we bet, it isn't the bet itself that is important, it is the result of the game that's important, because the result of the game on which we bet is what determines the profitability of the bet. The bet itself is incidental, having no effect upon the game whatsoever, just like our expectation of the result has no effect on the game. Until our expectation matches the result of the game, the bet is worthless to the concept of profiteering from it. Agreeing to the odds a bookie places are a much better profit-orientated premise, than one in which probability shows a result unlikely to happen. Yes, the profit will be small, but it will grow with consistency. Once the season is over, I will analyse the data, as I am interested to see if probability is more likely to predict a correct result than say one's gut feeling? I expect it to be so. If it is, we should not dismiss Poisson off-hand as it will provide a hit more than a miss, and we can use that to our advantage as punters. Regards to youHello, Aristillus, :welcome to the forum! Nice to see your posts and some fresh ideas, thanks for sharing it! :ok I saw your posts in the Championship thread, nice reading there, but I have the same objection as MPLouis: without odds, your selections lack real sense - the goal is to get money from bookmaker; and you can get it only if they pay at sufficiently high rate. Well, that's the consequence of using Poisson - 1X2 probabilities reflect probability of expected goals of each team, which reflects their position on league table, which is, in turn, reflected in the odds offered by bookmakers; hence, you like it or not, your system is indeed inclined towards picking favourites. -
Hi There, I'm new to the forum, and although I've already made some posts, I thought I'd introduce myself with one more conversational and philosophical in tone. I think I am right when I say we are all here to win bets in order to win money? That as far as I can perceive is what it is all about, but we all have different perceptions and views on how to go about achieving our goal. However, let's state the most obvious premise regarding your act of betting on a football match. Winning money on your bet is an incidental outcome. It is simply the end result of a set of 'perceivings' you hold between the meeting of two football teams who are to play each other. You don't have to be a professional punter to win or lose money, you just simply need to participate. However you decide to place a bet, it is an act culled from either a hunch or gut-feeling, or one that is derived from study of historical data. I have made bets using both methods, and although I have yet to win a single bet, the system I use has given me a consistent level of around 72% accuracy. The reason why I have not won a bet yet (coming very close on many occasions) is due to my betting on accumulators only, and have found myself losing the bet on the outcome of one match, of one team letting me down. Three time this season one team out of the selection of eight or nine teams has stopped me from collecting a pot consisting of thousands of pounds. Of course, accumulators are where the big money wins are, but the likelihood of winning them is extremely small. Before the start of the current season I had a good think of how I could change my betting style, and what aids I could use to help guide me towards bets more-weighted in my favour, but obviously, not guaranteeing the win. Having knowledge of Microsoft Excel I created a database for both the Premier League and the Championship. It was a laborious and monotonous task I can tell you, but once I made it all automated, all I have to do each week is enter the scores and the database updates itself across the whole spread. Only recently have I come across the Poisson system of probability, and have incorporated it into my database as it gives me a more detailed resolution on probabilities. Databases generate massive amounts of data over time, but what is more important is how one uses that data. At the start of the season, my database was empty, but like a painting becoming more resolved and clear with each brush stroke, the database began to generate data I could use with every game played. I know from experience that database systems do provide weighted probabilities favourable to prediction, I've seen it with my own database, if it didn't, I wouldn't be here now writing about it. For instance, Watford v Middlesbrough have just played their game, and Poisson suggested that Watford would win as follows... Home Win------Draw-----Away Win ----47%---------27%--------26% Another way of using Poisson gave the following highest probabilities for... Watford: 1-0 win @ 12.9%; 2-0 win @ 9.2%; and 1-1 draw @12.1% Middlesbrough: 0-1 win @ 8.9%; 0-2 win @ 4.4% and 1-1 draw @ 12.1 % Other form factors I use were as follows.... Watford----44% Middlesbrough----50% Watford won 2-0 Other predictions for today's games can be found here... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/159113-Sky-Bet-Championship-gt-6-7-Apr Despite what some other posters say about it being simply a system that picks the favourite team, the system always weights itself to the team with the better season performance, and when making bets, you want to weight the outcome in your favour. In other words, you want to pick the team that wins, and not simply play a particular bet because it gives you better odds. There are always two systems competing for the result, the punter's and the bookies', and the bookies more often than not, weight the odds in their favour, the trick is not to compete against the bookies, even though that is where the big wins are, the trick is to go with your own system, trust it, and hopefully it will pay you the dividends in the long run. Bet small and discerning and try to stay in profit. If the winning team or result and the bet don't correspond, you will always lose the bet and money, and that is guaranteed! What I am saying here is that you should weight priority on picking either the winning team or the draw, until you get either of those two options right, you win nothing, no matter what bet you place. Regards all.
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Re: Help with hedging bets on an accumulator
To be honest, a Charlton win is indeed the most likely result, but Charlton are one of those teams that can let you down. Over the season Charlton have managed to be beaten by teams that one would not bet on beating Charlton. For this game, Poisson states the following... Home Win------Draw-----Away Win --58%-----------22%-------19% Other Form factors give the following... Charlton----50% Fulham-----22% So to win, it suggests Fulham have to play in such a way that they overcome these recent and historical deficits, equally so to gain a Draw. It's not beyond possibility, but it does look unlikely. It all depends on which Charlton team turns up? The one that wants to win the game, or the one that can't be arsed.I've got an accumulator that's waiting on one result in the Charlton-Fulham game tomorrow night (a draw). I figure the most likely result is a Charlton win... -
Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Poisson is a good probability system. It is accurate and robust, but like 'artificial intelligence' it cannot display the nuances of human perception. There are too many variables at play that affect a match that cannot be weighted to a probability system, so Poisson can only suggest probability based on historical data...in other words, Poisson is a guide only, even when it is correct with its probabilities. I use it myself, but I also look at other factors that are both resonant and complimentary to Poisson probability. One thing I don't use within my Poisson tables is last season's results, they do not affect the current season in any way (how could they?). In fact, even within the current season, past a certain amount of recent games, no past result affects the mindset of the players, and mindset has everything to do with form, and it is playing good form wherein goals are scored to win matches. The more a team plays as a team with equal distribution of good form amongst them, the more likely they are to achieve a positive result, so look for teams that are displaying 'team' effort, where the whole team is singing equally from the same song sheet. Regards
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Re: Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday April 5th
So Spurs definitely gave up on CL spot' date=' this performance today was abysmal. Burnley also deserve to go down, they are so bad, my street team would make fun of them.[/quote'] Obviously, you are not a philosophical fellow. Burnley deserve to go down? Why do you think they 'deserve' it? If anything, Burnley merit staying up. The smallest club, the least amount of money, the whole team cost just £8 million, far less than what Spurs paid for just one of their players, and they are playing to stay in the Premier League. When Man Utd came to Burnley, Di Maria was allegedly worth more than the entire club of Burnley, but still could only grind out a draw at Turf Moor. So, an £8 million team against a team worth over £250 million and a draw results. Predictable responses were that Utd played badly, not that Burnley played well enough to keep Utd out, which they obviously had to do. Burnley are coming to the end of a nightmarish run of playing all 8 of the top teams contiguously, where even I thought they would not gain a single point, but managed to get 5 points out of the 24, beating Man City on the way, and drawing at Chelsea. Burnley are doing exactly what they have to do to survive. It's plain to see what Dyche is aiming for...that coveted 17th spot, and he knows the Clarets can achieve it come end of season. A simple plan really, nullify the big teams and try to grind out a draw, and win the games against teams around them, 3 of which are most certainly winnable. Not by any stretch of the imagination do Burnley 'deserve' to go down, and you know what, against all expectations and odds, I don't believe they will. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > 6-7 Apr
Hi Louis, Thanks for the reply. I am still learning about 'odds' and have a limited understanding of them (one of the reasons for my joining the forum). What I have been trying to do is to achieve consistently correct predictive results. Friday I achieved 7 out of eight, whilst on Saturday I achieved only 6 out of 11 (one of the lowest scores I have ever received). If I were to keep a diary on my database and the results it suggests, I would say I am consistently achieving a mean average of around 72%, which is enough to win small amounts of cash, but am looking to hit 80 to 85% accuracy. Of course, there are too many affective variables to include to achieve real consistent accuracy (a bit like trying to model the weather). Teams do not play to form week in week out, so my database can only suggest probable results for both teams playing to their historical and current form. I believe one has to be shrewd and philosophical. A game that was played say 10 weeks ago has very little effect on current mindset of players. In fact my database suggests that only the last 2 or 3 games efforts remain in memory. When it comes to 'odds', I don't see the point of placing a bet on an event that has a very low probability of occurring. Of course, they are thrown up each week, and one is left scratching one's head wondering where the hell did that come from? It happened a few times last Saturday. Teams with very low probability of winning or of achieving a positive result against the run of historical and current form seem to overcome their consistent bad form (Millwall is one such team, they are buggers for it), such results cannot be predicted or even given a probability rating. You can only hope that it doesn't happen, but it does, week in, week out, and they are the bane of probability indicators. Today, I am going to place small bets on individual matches, something I have never done before, having always gone for an accumulator. I am trusting in my probability indicator model to help guide me to a positive result. The odds on offer for each game are not overly important to me right now, but achieving the win is. I'm looking to gain a positive form of betting that wins small and remains in profit, but will also place a 4 or 5 team accumulator on. RegardsHi Aristillus, What importance to you give to the available odds for these probable results when considering a bet? -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > 6-7 Apr Hi There, I'm new to the forum, and as a way of introduction I thought I'd put up my probability system for the Championship League (UK) for the 6th of April. I've never been a real gambler on anything, but I place a bet now and again on football, but have only recently realised that I've been betting wrongly, and am now changing the way I am going to bet. I keep a database spreadsheet for the Premier and the Championship, but next season I will include leagues 1 and 2. The database (the foundation) provides a lot of information and I keep it up-to-date and accurate. The next layer (the engine) works out all the probabilities using Poisson and a little something extra, and the frontend (the 3rd layer) presents all the probability results within a tabulated form. The following shows probable results for today's Championship matches as either 'Home Win', 'Draw', or 'Away Win. Match Probable Result Watford v Middlesbrough------Home Win Bournemouth v Birmingham---Home Win Brentford v Nottm Forest------Home Win or Draw Cardiff v Bolton-----------------Home Win Huddersfield v Ipswich---------Draw or Away Win Norwich v Sheff Wed-----------Home Win Rotherham v Brighton----------Draw or Away Win Wigan v Derby------------------Away Win Wolves v Leeds-----------------Home Win As you can see I sometimes offer two probabilities for a game, and that is because the probabilities are close enough to go either way. You could use these for betting on an accumulator, but I would discourage you from doing so, accumulators are not easy to win unless you keep them down to 4 games. Best way to use these probabilities is to bet on matches individually. You won't win big, but you'll get your stake back plus the profit, and that is what it is all about. Stay small and discerning. Regards all.
CTP Form Factors
in Championship Predictions
Posted · Edited by Aristillus
Hi There,
I want to present (as a test) something I call CTP Form. It's a new way of scoring a team's form, and to show the form as a more accurate dynamic variable. The premise (I believe) is new and novel. C.T.P stands for 'capture the point'.
The idea is predicated on what teams play for...the win, followed by the draw. The normal scoring is 3 points for a win, 1 point for the draw, and 0 for the loss. This scoring system does not give an accurate presentation of a team's actual form, it is too blunt, what is required is greater resolution.
Theoretically, one can say that both teams already start the game with a point each, and the goal for each team is to capture the other team's point, with this in mind, I have both teams playing to win just 1 point. So, at the start of the season all teams actually begin with 46 points, 23 points for home, and 23 points for away, and throughout the season, teams will either add to or lose points depending on whether or not they win or lose. If they draw, nothing is gained, both teams hold onto the point they could have lost.
When a team wins, it adds 1 point to their tally of 23 it began with at the start of the season off the losing team. When a team loses, a point is deducted of the 23 points it began with at the start of the season...and so on.
With that in mind, here are CTP Form graph charts for the Championship, League One, and League Two for this weekend. The charts are, of course, suggestive only, they are not predictive, but you can use them as a guide. Dark green is the home team. Always bear in mind that teams do not always perform to the level their past results indicate. Form is a volatile variable, so it will and can go up and down in one game.
By the way, the red line across the graph is the baseline 23 points. Above this line indicates better than average form. At this line indicates average form, and below the line indicates below average form.
Good luck