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About Gimlet

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/13/1967
  1. Re: Serie B Eurobet > February 13th - 16th Perugia v Modena brings together two very even sides. In my opinion, home advantage for Perugia might be balanced out by the fact that they are not playing very well, from what I have seen (whereas Modena can take confidence from being difficult to beat, home or away). Both records are encrusted with draws, so that is the result I pick.
  2. Re: Ligue 2 > February 13th - 16th Looking through the fixtures, the one that stood out for me was Creteil v Valenciennes. Valenciennes' form is so horrible that surely it cannot go on and on. They are not even picking up a point in matches--and in this very even table that is surprising. They went from being ahead in the last game to losing, which cannot be good for spirits. They are meeting a Creteil side who have some good results behind them--so this game seems to be a rare case of good form v bad form. In the circumstances, the evens about Creteil seems good value.
  3. Re: Coupe de France > February 10th - 12th Metz v Brest is an interesting one. Metz are very dour, with little penetration, but they can be exceptionally difficult to break down. Even though they are from the higher league, I expect them to end up in defensive mode against Brest, who are a sophisticated team with excellent attackers. I have noticed that a lot of these cup games are going to extra time, so I reckon the best bet here might be the drawn result at normal time.
  4. Re: Ligue 2 > February 6th - 9th Stats are all very well, but anyone who watched Tours flounder horribly against AC Ajaccio last week would have shrunk from backing them at Angers. I was watching that game split screen with Chateauroux v Angers, and the latter was no easy win because Chateauroux, in my opinion, played well, though they cannot score.
  5. Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 6th - 8th If St Etienne win, it might not be by much, judging from their recent results. lens are also a fairly tight team, but do not seem able to get their noses in front. Looking at the betting, I am thinking that the Asian Handicap of Lens +1, at @4/5 is feasible. If Lens lost by one goal, money back.
  6. Re: Ligue 2 > February 6th - 9th As far as I can see, all the fixtures have home favourites this week, but it is all vaery trappy, given that form seems to have congealed towards the middle, meaning anyone could beat anyone. Two possible pieces of value stood out. Sochaux are long outsiders away to Dijon, despite Dijon being in bad form and Sochaux being good away. The handicap, though, makes Dijon odds against with 0.5, meaning that Sochaux plus 0.5 must be favourite. The best way to do that might be separate win bets on Sochaux at 17/5 and the draw at 21/10. Valenciennes, who have no
  7. Re: Ligue 2 > January 23rd - 26th I looked carefully at the Angers-Brest match, where at first sight the Angers form looked better, but there were some cautionary things in the Brest form that put me off. I am so glad, because when I watched the match I was staggered by how far Brest outclassed Angers, considering the two teams are close in the table. Brest attacked constantly in an expansive and technically skilful manner, and Angers did not even deserve to score their one goal. On this evidence, Brest could soon be joining the likes of Troyes and Sochaux towards the top.
  8. Re: Sky Bet Championship > January 10th & 11th I expect the reason is that Birmingham were thrashed in their last home match. But they went away and thrashed Forest in the game after. So this is an unpredictable match, even for the odds compilers. I cannot guess how it will turn out. (I watched the Forest-Birmingham game on telly and thought Birmingham looked excellent--but Forest are plumb bottom of the form table, and Wigan will have more of a defence.)
  9. Re: Scottish Football > January 10th - 12th The 5/2 DNB Motherwell has gone now; but even so, would not backing the draw (14/5) and the DNB Motherwell (12/5 now) be more valuable than the Double Chance and the DNB? (I can only see 21/20 for the Double Chance.)
  10. Re: Scottish Football > January 10th - 12th There is 5/2 available for a Draw No Bet on Motherwell to beat Dundee away. Considering Dundee could not beat Ross County at home even when County had a man sent off after a few minutes, this seems to me value. Dundee are about 13/15 (1.86), which I reckon means the bookies give them about a 50% chance of winning. That means the draw and Motherwell together have a 50%. Motherwell did get beat the last couple of times, but to good teams.
  11. Re: Sky Bet Championship > January 10th & 11th I noticed the following offer on another thread. I have not looked at the Cardiff game, but this makes me even more dubious about the short for Bolton and Middlesborough. When you break 9:1 down into separate bets, each team is odds against to win--which means the bookies believe these teams are less likely to win than to not win. (No Bournemouth included, I notice!) Enhanced Treble - Bolton, Cardiff & Middlesbrough @ 9/1 - All Customers!
  12. Re: Sky Bet Championship > January 10th & 11th Well, I do not think a coin toss is value. If Phelan improves them, fair enough. But they could hardly muster a shot against Reading. And according to both the Preston manager and the Match of the Day comments, they did not have a shot against Preston either. Bournemouth are much better than both Reading and Preston. I would not back either Bournemouth or Bolton, if only because evens is never value in this league, where anything can happen. Of the two, though, I would rather back Bournemouth than Bolton.
  13. Re: Sky Bet Championship > January 10th & 11th I am going to have a go at picking draws in this division, which I know well from watching Reading. I am not betting for the time being--just working at this on paper. The two games I would select as possible draws are Charlton v Brighton and Blackpool v Millwall. * Some observations (not picks) on value. Today (Monday), Bournemouth are at evens to beat Norwich at home. In the last league game, Norwich were the worst team I saw against Reading since Fulham under Felix Magath. And they followed up by being abysmal in the cup as well. S
  14. Re: Sky Bet Championship > Friday December 26th Two of the three home favorites, I meant. The sooner I can get to edit on here the better. If I am hounded off the site for appearing not to be able to add up, it will be quite justified.
  15. Re: Sky Bet Championship > Friday December 26th To say something useful, instead of my blathering, I have found the number of draws in the championship this year to be above break-even level (at 12:5 average odds) if you backed them all. In itself, this is not useful, because no one is going to back all games to be a draw--and so narrowing it down is essential. I have only recently started checking table position against draw frequency, and it seems to me that the difference between the top 6 and the bottom 3 is about 16% (24% and 40%). So, leaving the top 6 out of draw bets starts to
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