methuselah
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Posts
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Posts posted by methuselah
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Get it .Sort of. The Goal difference bit confused me.
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Do not understand , particularly the Augsburg match.
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Re: Can ClubElo predicted probabilities outline value bets? Very interesting. Look forward to further posts.
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Re: Stats Based Betting System I,m sure they do.
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Re: Stats Based Betting System The point about the statement is that punting should be an enjoyable pastime . It might well cost you money but the fun is in trying. THAT is the real value of the statement.
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Re: Stats Based Betting System Well Faramund, It looks like you must test for another 4 years. He who dares wins , so just go ahead and enjoy punting.
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Re: Intuition betting Great start. You may be psychic.?
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Re: 2nd Favourites Only You could make this profitable , perhaps , by turning this into a laying thread. Have to increase your bank though.
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Re: Simple formula Your results so far are excellent , however you seem to have made picks that do not to fit in with your formula. In the Kups game the ratio is 1 not the required 2.
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Re: Sharing my football strategy! Well , footballfan , I have tried this and a hundred variations of it and am still poor alas. You seem to have had more luck than me. If you go to to the site Bet Virus they have done the calculations for you. If you then access BV Tool you can see that calculations on the whole season will be more accurate. You can even break down results by the league. Good Luck
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Re: New System I like to share Ah, I see, . I thought your forecast was over 2.5.
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Re: New System I like to share I am looking at Soccer 24 now, after 78 minutes and the score is 0-2.
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Re: Advice about strategy If we knew the answer to that all the Bookies would be broke.
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Re: Anti-Nob ("nailed-on" bets) Good Luck with this. Should be interesting.
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Re: Value is in the eye of the beholder Good luck on Mglad. I fancy them at the current price though they have dropped a fair bit and I will back them.
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Re: Do 'Derbies' provide any angle we can use ? I had a quick look at Germany and Italy and there do not seem to be as many Draws as in the U.K. I used the sites footballderbies and Bari 91 for the info. There do not seem to be too many matches either. A deeper study would give more of an idea.
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Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Thanks for your reply Porcupine., and the replies of others. I am not a mathematician but a failing Punter. My losses are steady but modest and I feel that perhaps a study of Chaos Theory would be appropriate for us Punters. I believe that the Bookies who set the prices have the best statisticians available and they then set prices much to their advantage. Still, it's good fun to try and beat them.
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Re: Poisson. Dixon Coles approach Explain Dixon Coles Poisson. Have no idea what it says. I come across the word Poisson frequently as a massage for Soccer stats but have no idea of its effectiveness. Perhaps you could give us some of your picks.? I noted the words " subscription based " .
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Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Grex , on the opening page right hand side click " Show all trends" where the ELO rating is. This will list the lot. You can go back a year or more. Can't say I have had much luck with them. May yours work well.
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Re: Grex's ELO Ratings On prematches there are ELO ratings that you could compare with yours for interests sake.
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Re: Surprise potential rating Should have said I do not understand the Surprise Potential.
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Re: Surprise potential rating How is it working out.? I must admit the Surprise Potential.
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Re: SmartOdds / Star Lizard Services Would not say they are under the radar. Seem too smooth for me.
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Re: Back tested system US Open 12 % yield, 12 years IT is frequently said that back-testing is worthless, but I must disagree strongly. Isn,t that what we do when we create our systems from past results. Look at JTW,s successful H2H systems which are gleaned from past results, i.e. they are in essence back-tested.
Secret Edge
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Well you tried. I have often wondered if some
of these failed systems would work as laying systems.