hornet_18
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011
Incredible odds CP, the best you can get at the british bookies is 26...great bet though :okLowest Round Score of Event - Anthony Kim @ 67 Sportingbet Kim has shot a 65 in both his Masters appearances and in both instances this was good enough to win this market (albeit tied with one other on both occasions). As has been mentioned he is a bit eratic at times but in this kind of market that's a good thing. A guy who shoots 65 or 75 is better than a guy who shots four rounds of 69 (at least in this type of market). Clearly found form last week so this is just sucg a stonking good bet that I wasn't even able to get my full requested stake on! -
Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Just to note that I've also had a few antepost bets on the Masters...some of the odds are good, some are nothing special despite early bets (see A Kim bet!)! Lee Westwood @ 20s ew - now 16s (General) This was placed just after Westwood became number one and I assumed he would only continue form he had held for 18months. To be honest, I thought he'd be about 12s by this point. Still believe he has a great chance as he played pretty well last week and really knows the course well now. Played brilliantly here last year and everyone knows this is now what he is playing for - to get in contention for the majors. Anthony Kim @ 40s ew - now 45s (General) This was placed earlier in the season when he had hit 3 top 20s in the first 3 tournaments of the year. I thought he was over his thumb injury and would really follow up on the T6 in the Farmers Insurance Open. I was wrong; however, I was really happy to some semblance of form last week in Houston. The guy is a fantastic player and reminds me of a young Phil Mickelson - hits it long and erratic but has an absolutely magical short game as one of the best putters on tour. Loves the course and in two appearances here has already shot 2 65s. Will win here one day, but possibly not this year. Sergio Garcia @ 80s ew - now 80s (Coral) Sergio went in to about 60s best price a couple of weeks ago when in contention at the Transitions but hasnt played since his 8th at Arnold Palmer. Seems to be a case of out of sight out of mind as without a doubt, he has turned a corner in terms of his game. On his comeback from his mini break he missed the cut...since then he has played 8 times with 8 top 30s, 3 top 10s, and his last 3 tournaments reading 20-15-8. Surely that form has got to look pretty good. The reality is that his short game probably isnt good enough to win this tournament, but his long game looks in superb shape again and the fact that he has 20 wins worldwide by the age of 31 shows that we're probably over critical of him solely because he hasnt won a major. I still expect him to, but most likely the open. Ryan Moore @ 125s - now 70s (Bet365) Finally one of my bets has shortened significantly! He is probably priced about right now but I wouldnt be surprised to see him go very close. An amateur career to challenge anybody, he has taken longer than expected to truly make a name for himself with the big boys, however, a PGA Tour win, two top 15s at the Masters and another 2 top 10s in the majors shows he's really starting to move forward. Has played pretty well this season with 3 top 15s in his last 5 tournaments. Fantastic driver of the ball and says he feels comfortable on the greens here which is a massive bonus. Was the best putter in the field last year which backs this up so I have no doubt he could go close at decent odds. GL :ok
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Gary Woodland Top Debutant @ 13 outright ToteSport Most of the focus in the market has gone to Scot Martin Laird, however, I feel this young big hitter has the perfect game for Augusta. It was mentioned earlier by Farney so I'm just going to follow up on it! I dont think he'll win it on his debut, however, at these odds if he finishes somewhere in the top 20 he'll give himself a chance. Played 9 times this season - 4 top 10s (including a win) and a 13th last week where he was 1st in Total Driving and Ball Striking for the week. Currently top 25 for driving distance, GIR, putting, ball striking and birdie conversion so definitely has the game and form to go well on his debut. Well worth a go at double figure odds. GL :ok
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011
Loving the name "Hornet Criteria"...might have to use that! :D Of course if it pitches up loads of losers over the course of the season I'll have to change my name...:lolWatney is a quality player and scores highly when applying the 'Hornet Criteria'. -
Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Cheers Paddy. Basically, I've taken 6 places because it's the Masters and anything can happen. Plus, last year I had Freddie Couples @ 125s to 5 places and he came outright 6th which annoyed me! In terms of the info it's just grunt work...using the PGA Website a lot, love a bit of wikipedia too (their major results boxes has been a great help!). Then it's also just about understanding what you're looking to do on the course (golf365 has great course writeups); so yeah, sadly it's not all that glamorous! :ok
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 A pretty easy first round tip for me...as I play it every year he's in the Masters! Justin Rose First Round Leader @ 34 ew Bet365 Justin Rose has played the Masters 5 times, his first round finishes have been...12-1-1-1-70. Incredible figures. He didnt play here last year so will be raring to go again right from the word go. Has been playing well this year with two top 5s in recent weeks so no worries about current form. GL :ok
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 Sounds good CP. Hopefully Yang can win his second major followed by the Goose, Stricker and Poults! Odds on that happening?! :eek I'm not happy taking Woods (again) but the trends say he fits and his odds are actually not too prohibitive (although taking 12s on a guy who hasnt won in 16 months is still a bit bit mad!). As mentioned, I like Cabrera as a pick as he's only discounted on his ranking...a factor that came into play when he won, but he still managed to win so at those odds definitely worth a look! I do have a few antepost bets which I've put on over the past few months but I'll post them up later. :hope
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011 After much blood, sweat and tears...I've come up with 10 key points for the winner of the US Masters. Basically, it's everything Zach Johnson isn't!! 1) Made the cut in last years Masters. Every winner since 1980 has played in the previous Masters, and the only player to win having missed the cut was Tiger Woods in 1997. 2) Won on US soil in the PGA Tour. The last player to make the Masters their first win the US was Bernhard Langer in 1985. 3) Had a top 10 this year. 18 of the last 20 winners had already hit the top 10 this year. 4) Have 5 or more professional wins. In the last 30 years, only Tiger Woods in 1997 and Zach Johnson in 2007 have won the Masters having won less than 5 tournaments on the major tours (includes PGA, European, Asian in my eyes!). 5) Has finished in the top 10 at a major previously. In the last 40 years, only Tiger Woods in 1997 and Zach Johnson in 2007 (them again!) have not had a top 10 in a major before winning here. 6) Must have won in the last 2 years (since beginning of 09 season). 23 of the last 24 winners abide by this rule; naturally Zach Johnson hadnt won in 3 years and one week! 7) Finished in the top 25 in a major last year. 27 of last 28 winners had finished in the top 25 of a major last year...Zach Johnson again chiming in with a 32nd the year before his win! 8) No win in the week before the Masters. In the last 50 years, only Sandy Lyle (1988) and Phil Mickelson (2006) have managed to win the Masters one week after another tournament win. Ironically, this stat rules out Phil again! 9) Ranked in the top 50 in the world. Since the rankings began in 1986, only 2 winners have been ranked outside the top 50. Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera. Again, like above with Phil, somewhat ironically this is the only factor that rules out Cabrera this year! 10) No Aussies! Hard as he tried, Greg Norman couldnt break the course. No Aussie has finished in the top 5 since 2005 when Pampling and Hensby finished 8 shots off the lead. OK, so while I'm going to regret leaving out Mickelson and Cabrera (they'll battle out a playoff on sunday no doubt!) as they break rules they've broken before...the 10 factors above leaves me with 5 top quality players. Tiger Woods @ 13 ew BoyleSports Top 6 1) Finished 4th last year 2) 71 PGA Tour wins 3) Top 10 at Doral 4) As mentioned above, a few more than 5 professional wins! 5) 14 major wins, and at least one top 10 in a major every year since his first in 1997. 6) Won in 2009 7) Two top 10s last year in majors 8) Didn't play last week. 9) World No.7 10) American. YE Yang @ 96 ew PP 6 Places 1) 8th last year 2) Two wins in the US including the USPGA 3) 5th in Match Play and 2nd in the Honda Classic 4) 5 wins on the major tours 5) Major win and a top 10 here last year 6) Won the USPGA in last 2009. 7) Top 10 here last year. 8) MC last week 9) World No.33 10) South Korean Ian Poulter @ 51 ew PP 6 Places 1) 10th last year 2) Won the Match Play last year 3) 6th in the Tournament of Champions 4) 10 wins on the European Tour 5) 3 top 10s in majors including a runner up at the Open. 6) Won 3 tournaments in the last 18 months. 7) Top 10 here last year 8) Didn't play last week 9) World No.16 10) English Steve Stricker @ 46 ew PP 6 Places 1) 30th last year 2) First PGA Tour win way back in 1996. 3) 3 top 10s this year, including last week 4) 9 PGA Tour wins. 5) 9 top 10s in majors, and two here. 6) Won 5 tournaments since May 2009. 7) 18th in the USPGA last year. 8) 4th last week 9) World No.8 10) American Retief Goosen @ 71 ew BoyleSports 6 Places 1) 38th last year 2) First win on US soil was the US Open in 2001. 3) 3rd in Abu Dhabi early in the year. 4) 44 professional wins 5) 2 major wins and 15 top 10s in majors. 6) Sneaks in with his win in the 2009 Transitions Championships. 7) 6th in US Open last year. 8) T60 last week 9) World No.19 10) South African I love the Masters...lets hope I still love it at the end of the week!! GL :ok
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Thanks guys, hopefully the first of many from this method! CP - sadly at the moment it's all legwork!! Might be easier with a database of some sort but I wouldn't even know where to start with that if creating it and it would probably take a fair amount of upkeep... Bring on the best tournament of the year!! :ok
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open Not bad with Mickelson winning @ 18s and Baddeley falling away but still finishing 4th to hit the e/w payout! Sadly it seems that the other four guys have let everyone - and themselves - down! Currently the "winners profiles" started two weeks ago stands at: Total Units Bet - 20 Units won - 27.25 ROI - 136.26% Not bad to start with!! Now to see whether Yani Tseng can get a win in the LPGA to make it an excellent weekend for the profiles...:hope
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational
While not Garrigus and Day (who I had high hopes for); there are two guys well in the running...Mickelson in the lead and Baddeley one behind. Here's hoping! :hopeJust to note; after the first week, working to level stakes, 1 unit e/w or 2 units outright (if specified), the profiling is currently +1.25 units from 8 units bet. ROI 15.63%. Aaron Baddeley @ 51 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 14th in DD last year. 2) 46th in par 5 birdie % last year, 27th this year. 3) Top 14 in 2008 but no top 10 here. 4) Winner already this year. Phil Mickelson @ 19 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 13th in DD last year. 2) 2nd in par 5 birdie % last year; 4th this year. 3) Best finish here of 23rd in 2008. 4) 2nd in Farmer Insurance Open early in the season. GL :ok -
Re: Cricket: ICC World Cup 2011 Very impressive by India :clap When Sehwag and Tendulkar were out early on I thought it was Sri Lankas for the taking but Gambhir and Dhoni were unbelievably impressive under pressure. Fitting end to a great tournament. Oh to be in Mumbai tonight!! :beer
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational
Johnson Wagner sitting right up there again, great shout...but I'm still hoping one of my boys will pull through so I'll be booing him all the way :lolJohnson Wagner @ 100 Betfair A former winner at this course with a top 10 to boot. Though he's only made 2/6 cuts, he does have a win this year. Winner on this course + winner during this season + odds in 3 figure range = BACK! By no means done yet but these are the ones I've been matched on so far. -
Re: AFL Rd. 2. Thanks guys, interesting thoughts as you definitely know more than I do! Amazing how much the Magpies have improved (and how much the Bombers have floundered) since the 09 Anzac Day game.
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Re: AFL Rd. 2. Hi guys, just interested in your opinion on the antepost market for the AFL. Looking at it, Collingwood seem a bit short to me (but admittedly I've been out of touch with AFL for the last year when they seem to have improved markedly!). Basically, I'm looking at how things have fared the past few years, and including last year, and surely at 13/8 or thereabouts, they're too short? Geelong (yes, with GA Jr) are still a good side and have been there or thereabouts for a number of years, and St Kilda (while bottlers) managed to push Collingwood to a replay in last years Grand Final so are these two really that much worse than the Magpies? Unsure about the drafts / recruitment over the close season so I might be way out of line but surely dutching Geelong and St Kilda @ 3.5 to win the GF might give a decent amount of value considering one of them has been in the final for the last 4 years? Any thoughts on this would be appreciated! GL :ok
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Re: Cricket: ICC World Cup 2011 Just been looking at the final, and the prices are (in my opinion) ludicrous...and Sri Lanka - currently @ 2.7 on BetFair - have been rising since India won the semis. I'll be taking some of that! Looking at the two teams I see them as very even, and this match pretty much as a 50-50...when taking into account the Mumbai factor, possibly a 55-45 meaning that SL should still only be about 2.22! Looking at the lineups, both batting lineups are packed with quality - SL have their top three occupying 3of the top 5 places in the WC so far...India have 3 batsmen in the top 8. Clearly there is no doubting their quality with the willow. On the bowling side, I'd say should Murali be fit the quality is edged by SL who also have the unconventional Malinga in their ranks who is one of the best one day bowlers in the world, and the best end of innings bowler in the world. Zaheer Khan is a quality bowler for India but I think SLs variety gives them the edge. Basically, I'm a little bit shocked by the prices, and I'll happily take the prices on offer on SL on what is, for me, a coin toss. It's not like a cricket match could be fixed or anything :unsure
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Shell Houston Open
*Gulp* :unsure But I shouldnt be nervous...he's a sure thing :dude Do like the play on Jason Day though - think I would've taken him either way. Lives in Texas. Won in Texas last year. Has that top 10 finish here in 08 where he finished 69-65 so I think he has the game for the course. But no...it's all about Robert Garrigus! :okCouldn't agree more. Interestingly, Day has been backed in with most bookies... But Garrigus who fits all 4 of the criteria is available at 150/1 with Tote and Coral. As Hornet is certain he'll win, I've sold the house, car, wife and son and lumped it on the nose! No pressure hornet :rollin -
Wasnt sure whether there was a thread for the Ladies tour and as it's their first major of the year I thought I'd put up a couple of bets. I'm going to keep my thought process of profiling going, and have just a couple of criteria which basically cuts apart the field! It seems that previous winners are the best in the field - hardly rocket science but they have both course and current form... 1) 13 of past 14 winners have had at least a top 20 in the past 2 years here. 2) 5 of last 7 winners have had 2 top 5s already in the season (only three tournaments played by this point in the season!). There are two women who meet these criteria... Yani Tseng @ 9 to win Coral 1) Finished top 20 in last two years; 2009 - T17 and 2010 - win. 2) Winner in Thailand, 3rd in HSBC Champions tournament and 5th last week in the Kia Classic. Karrie Webb @ 17 ew Coral 1) 8th in 2009; 5th in 2010. 2) 3 top 3s already this year, including two wins. Christie Kerr @ 12 ew StanJames 1) 2nd in 2009; 5th in 2010. 2) 4th and 3rd in her last two tournaments. Paula Creamer @ 21 ew VCBet 1) 17th in 2009; didnt play last year. 2) 5th in Thailand in the season opener, and 2nd two weeks ago. Morgan Pressel and Sun Young Yoo are both very close to fitting in to the criteria with 1 top 5 each and another T7 each, but it doesnt quite fit so I'll keep it to the 4 above (but they're both 50s so might be worth a tickle!). As mentioned above, the picks arent exactly mind boggling but it seems that on the LPGA Tour, class does really shine through in this first major of the year so I'll happily stick with them in a rare foray over to the womens game! GL :ok
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Just to note; after the first week, working to level stakes, 1 unit e/w or 2 units outright (if specified), the profiling is currently +1.25 units from 8 units bet. ROI 15.63%. This week is the Shell Houston Open which has been on the calendar for decades...but has only been played at this course since 2003 so may of the profiles will only have held up for 7 or 8 years. 1) 6 / 7 winners have been in the top 20 for Driving Distance in the previous calendar year. For this I will look at top 20 from last year and so far this year. 2) 7 / 8 winners have been in top 50 for par 5 birdie % in last calendar year (4 of these were in the top 10). Again like above I will look at last year and so far this year. 3) 5 / 7 winners had a previous top 10 on this course. 4) 6 / 7 winners had already had a top 2 this year. I'm looking at the Driving Distance and par 5 % as the key pointers for this week. Only one player fits all 4 criteria, and 5 others fit the top 2 and one of 3 or 4. I will be taking 1pt ew on each player. Robert Garrigus @ 126 ew SkyBet - 4 / 4 1) 7th in DD this year and 1st last year. 2) 29th in par 5 birdie % this year, and just outside the threshold in 53rd last year. 3) 5th here in 2007. 4) Finished 2nd in the season opener in Hawaii. JB Holmes @ 41 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 5th in DD last year, 4th this year. 2) 5th in par 5 % last year, 16th this year. 3) 2nd here two years ago. 4) Two top 5s, but no win or RU this year so far. Jason Day @ 61 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 15th in DD in 2010, 11th this year. 2) 47th in par 5 % in 2010. 3) 8th here in 2008. 4) Has two top 10s, but no win or RU this year so far. Gary Woodland @ 61 ew ToteSport - 3 / 4 1) 6th in DD last year, 9th this year. 2) 5th in par 5 birdie % last year, 23rd this year. 3) No great record here - has one missed cut in 2009. 4) A win two weeks ago, and a playoff loss earlier in the season. Aaron Baddeley @ 51 ew BetFred - 3 / 4 1) 14th in DD last year. 2) 46th in par 5 birdie % last year, 27th this year. 3) Top 14 in 2008 but no top 10 here. 4) Winner already this year. Phil Mickelson @ 19 ew PP - 3 / 4 1) 13th in DD last year. 2) 2nd in par 5 birdie % last year; 4th this year. 3) Best finish here of 23rd in 2008. 4) 2nd in Farmer Insurance Open early in the season. GL :ok
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational Thanks ELCAKER. I was thinking about a sort of weighting system on categories but it depends on the week; for example there were four who fit the criteria last week, but this week there is only one (to follow later!). As for Laird, I really like him as a player but despite his two wins, I'm still not convinced by him in contention. His putting has improved no end this year though which will always help and showed on the 72nd yesterday. With the MASTERS it's a well known fact that debutant winners dont come about too frequently - I think it's 3...ever, and Fuzzy Zoeller was the last in 1979 so I dont expect him to do anything to trouble the leaders that week. I know it's not until next week but I'm looking forward to it...and seem to have a ridiculous antepost portfolio in place already!!
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational OK, so the winning profile didnt quite hold up but Justin Rose manages an each way place which is a decent start (and Furyk also finished a respectable top 10). Breaking down how the each way places fared on the winning profiles below: Martin Laird - went along with 3 of the traits; had won in past 21 months; had a top 10 already this year; and finished in top 20 last week (T5). However, while not making his debut here, had never finished inside the top 25. 3 / 4. Steve Marino - 2 of the traits; has a good record here and finished top 11 last year; already has a couple of top 10s this year. However, has never won on the PGA Tour and missed the cut last week which are two big no-nos here! 2 / 4 Justin Rose - discussed above. 4 / 4 Marc Leishman - has a top 10 already this year. However, best finish here was T40 last year; finished outside the top 25 last week; and has never won on the PGA Tour. 1 / 4 David Toms - has 4 top 25s here; has a top 10 this year. However, hasnt won since early 2006 and finished T37 last week. 2 / 4 Interesting stuff that with the four other e/w payouts who were in contention (as Rose just had a good back nine coming from miles away and therefore I dont really count him!), the one who fit the profile best actually won. I know he was out to about 10/1 at some point after hitting into the water so possible money maker in the final rounds in the future. Will have to keep tabs on this! :ok
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Arnold Palmer Invitational I'm always looking for different ways to improve my betting so I've been looking into profiling winners and similarities from year to year so for the first time I'm going to try out a new profiling system to break down the field which, if successful, I'll continue to do in the future... 1) In the last 12 years - 10 of the winners have won in the previous 12 months; the other 2 winners had won in the previous 21 months. Only 2 of the last 27 winners at Bay Hill were winning their first PGA Tour tournament 2) Additionally, only 2 / 60 players who won or placed in the last 10 years were making their debut at the event. 11 of the last 12 winners had previously finished in the top 25 here (the other had finished T31) 3) 16 of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 10 already in that calendar year on the PGA Tour 4) 11 out of the past 17 winners had finished in the top 20 the week before - only one had missed the cut (Ernie Els in 1998) These four factors actually cut the field down to four players. No long shots but I'll give it a go! Hunter Mahan @ 26 ew Coral 1) Won twice last year 2) Top 25 in all of last 3 years 3) 4 top 10s in 7 tournaments last year 4) 9th last time out Justin Rose @ 34 ew PaddyPower 1) Won twice last year 2) Two top 25s in last 5 years (including a top 10) 3) 6 top 25s in 7 tournaments this season - includes two tops 10s in last 4 tournaments 4) Finished 5th last week Jim Furyk @ 41 ew PaddyPower 1) Won 3 times last year 2) 4 top 25s in last 6 visits here 3) Finshed top 10 in the first week this year 4) Finished 13th last week in the Transitions Tiger Woods @ 10 ToteSport (I know, I never thought I'd say that either but I guess 6 wins in 10 starts here over rules!!) 1) Won in September 2009 (in the last 21 months) 2) Has 6 wins here! 3) First top 10 of the year at Doral 4) Top 10 last time out To be fair, while it's a new profiling method I'm trying out, I'm quite happy with the picks! GL :ok
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Re: Golf: European Tour 2011 - Open de Andalucia Stephen Gallacher @ 34 (before commission) outright BetFair I know it's a bit of a risk going for Gallacher at win only but it's with the option to trade in a weaker field. Gallacher has played brilliant golf since about this time last year when he finished 12th on this course with 4 rounds of par or better. His play this year is equally impressive playing 5 tournaments finished 31st or better everytime including 3 top 12s in the high quality fields in the Middle East. Feel that he should go close in this field considering his form and record here and expected worse odds too! Peter Whiteford @ 101 ew BetFred Whiteford played some very good golf last week to finish tied for 5th. Last year he finished in the top 20 six times having graduated from Q School with his best finish coming here when he finished runner up to Oosthuizen. To be honest, it's a little bit confusing why a guy who came 2nd here last year and 5th last week is 3 figure odds so I'll happily take them. Robert Coles @ 126w BetFred Last week, Robert Coles finished 45th to shake off the rust after a month off after the Avantha Masters. His game was in good shape at that tournament but he really should have won having finished runner up so it's good to see that he was still playing solid golf. Last year he really took to the course finished in 4th with 69-64-63 over the first three rounds so there's no doubt he can play the course. Considering he finished runner up on his penultimate start I feel these odds are pretty generous. GL :ok
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Re: Golf: European Tour 2011 - Open de Andalucia Gagli managed to grab a share of a place (divided by 8!!!) @ 250s so that covers the bets in Italy which is decent. Fingers crossed next week these shares turn into outrights...:hope
Golf: US Masters 2011
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Re: Golf: US Masters 2011