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Yelnahs

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Posts posted by Yelnahs

    Building a football system with data mining

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi Matthew, Thanks for getting back. Ok, this may be a long winded response so please bear with me. I've been working on this on and off for over a year and looking to get it up and running in the coming months. I may need assistance with the final piece but will get to that later on. I am very lucky in that I'm a technologist first and foremost and I'm also a huge footy fan. So basically I can program, work with databases and have relative football knowledge (i.e nerd). Right, the 'model' as I call it was primarily built for Elo RateForm but has since evolved when I started to notice that Elo on it's own is not sufficient. It's all based in SQL. I get my stats from 12xpert over at football-data.co.uk (Joseph is an absolute gent, the work he does...) So, I have a SQL database with all the leagues supported over at football-data going back to 93/94. I have recently decided to concentrate on all English divisions as well as the top divisions for the SPL, Spain, Italy, Germany and France starting from 08/09 due to the amount of data available (mainly shots) and the way football has changed since 09ish. What the 'model' currently does is iterate through matches one by one on a per season basis, calculates a number of stats, current rateform etc. and outputs it to another table. The stats it produces per game is as follows (these apply for both home and away teams). This information is then put in a new database. All the below stats and information is available for every future fixture, by that I mean, for example, Week 1 in october the stats below are updated, for week 2's fixtures then the below stats can be recalled to help make a betting decision. Team - Home and away teams GamesPlayed - Self explanitory RateForm - Current rate forms of both teams at the time of kick off Kitty Per Team - The amount of RF points in the kitty per team (7% home, 5% away) Kitty - Total kitty Form - Form for the last 6 games, e.g WWDDLL ScoredGF - Total Goals scored in the last 6 games ConcededGF - Total Conceded last 6 ScoreForm - Scored taken away from Conceded GoalScoredForm - Last 6 games scored in 'string' format, i.e 116230 GoalConcededForm - Last 6 games concededin 'string' format, i.e 001346 LeaguePosition - Each team's league position LeaguePoints - Points per team LeaguePointsPerGame - Points per game average LeagueShots - Shots so far this season LeagueShotsPerGame - shots per game ratio LeagueShotsOnTarget - shots on target this season LeagueShotsOnTargetPerGame - shots ratio per game LeagueShotConversion - Ratio of many shots it takes per goal LeagueShotOnTargetConversion - Ratio of many shots on target it takes per goal LeagueGoalsScored - Goals so far this season LeagueGoalsScoredPerGame - Goals per game ratio LeagueGoalsConceded - Goals conceded so far this season LeagueGoalsConcededPerGame - Goals conceded ratio LeagueShotsConceded - Shots conceded so far this season LeagueShotsConcededPerGame - Per game ratio of shots conceded LeagueShotsOnTargetConceded - Shots conceded that were on target LeagueShotsOnTargetConcededPerGame - On target shot conceded ratio RateFormPosition - Where in the league each team currently stands in my rate form table HomeOdds - Odds based on Pinnacle, uses Bet 365 if pinnacle were unavailable DrawOdds - Odds based on Pinnacle, uses Bet 365 if pinnacle were unavailable AwayOdds - Odds based on Pinnacle, uses Bet 365 if pinnacle were unavailable Season - What season Division - What division Right. Hopefully I haven't lost you. All the above stats are available per team before any game is played. because the season isn't up and running at the moment I am using historical data. But I can stop the above analysis mid season and then simulate the rest of the season by placing dummy bets if I wish (currently my test model). My problem is a good one in that I have too much information and I really don't know what to do with it... Previously when the system was just RateForm with minimal stats I would (stupidly) run a query looking for all games where the Home Team is >500 rateform points above the away team and see what that brings back. If it made a historical 'profit' based on a season's worth of data I would then roll it out over a few seasons and other leagues and would 'lose' a shed load. I'm now slight older and a bit wiser and I know that such a blanket parameter is not feasible. I need to use the data above to find that elusive 'Value'. So I suppose that's my question. How to use the above information to attempt to find value. I'm thinking of something like adding the defensive and attacking ratios (based on at least 10 games into the new season) and querying all data to find out the win, draw, lose ratio and work out the odds that way. There is also the Poisson distribution option based on the goal stats. Is there any sense in doing both and then getting average odds? More than happy to share databases and anything else people might want (within reason of course). Hopefully this at least gets a conversation going. I suppose my end goal isn't to make bucket loads of money, I'd like to be able to outsmart the bookies from time to time however ;)

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