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Paparazzo

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Posts posted by Paparazzo

    New tool for stats minded punters

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: New tool for stats minded punters My first impression is that this tool could be very useful in calculating live betting fair odds. For example what is the impact of a yellow/red card of a defender shown within x minutes, or % of two consecutive scores within x minutes, and so forth. I'm more a pre-match punter so to me these stats are too time consuming but this is a very interesting work that should definitively be supported

    Price patterns and odds changes

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Price patterns and odds changes As promised I come back with some findings. Obviously only looking at downtrending odds alone does not lead to profitability, otherwise we all were happy punters. But odds' movements do tell something interesting. Firstly we have to make attention at the first moves. There are few bookies (ie. Bwin,Marathon) who publish odds very early (3weeks or more prior to the event). These are quickly adjusted and this a very important but yet not decisive clue. There are occasions in which after an important move the trend sets at the opposite so the overall move might be not meaningful but the charts are telling the direction thus giving good hints of the possible outcome. But the most important lesson I've learnt is to place the bet a day before the event occurs specially if it's on weekends. That's because on the match day movements are given by recreational bets, which are not really informed so either they confirm the trend (and hence you placed a bet at a better price) or the move at the opposite direction. But if they do so, often they are wrong so it's better not to get confused by those moves. Matthew if you could please send me the Serie A file for last season (13/14) I'll be very grateful and hopefuly confirm and add some more findings.

    LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM Well things are changed drammatically since 2009 (period of that post). Nowadays it's impossible to find oddscompiler errors, because even soft bokies use betradar or similar tools in order to adjust immediately and automatically their odds. Basically they just set their policy towards odds: juice, favourite bias, etc. So let's go back to the process and let me start with examples I know best. For example next serie A match Roma-Chievo There is a clear strong favourite Roma First book to publish price is Bwin on the 26th of September 1.3/5/10 with 108% juice low liability for bets and the market starts forming his ideas. When things have moved consistently Pinnacle appears on the 6th of October with: 1.3/5.81/12.75 with their typical 102% juice. So the Home odd hasn't change but the juice has reduced. Maybe there's a longshot bias, Bwin compilers may have thought that 1,3 it's a high price but if they were to set the "true" odd of let's say 1,23 then the priece for any 2AH would have resulted in a too high proposition, betting a 2AH +2goals at nearly evens...which is really VALUE! Keep in mind that on H2H the percentages are 58%/25%/15%, and that Roma have won all their home matches for 2-0. So expectations with such a bet are that the worst scenario is a void, and if Chievo still remains a paper for Roma being the stone.... But the ball is round, isn't it? So to me beating the book is equal to beat the market in 2014. To do so it's a mater of thinking really outside the box with counterintuitive ideas, not easy at all! Maybe looking odds charts? PArticular infos? I still haven't found an aswer to this Holy Grail

    LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM Beware of doing that! If you loose with a system it is absolutely not sure that you'll win making just the opposite, things change and there's juice to overcome. I suggest playing something you know and with low juice. If you play Colombian matches you should have an edge, otherwise it's waste of money. While PL has something like 1% juice (if you combile Pinny and Sbo) and you are surrounded by news and you can easily have your own idea.

    Price patterns and odds changes

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Price patterns and odds changes I really apreciate you to share such information . I didn't know you were using in a different way and just wanted to compare my view about data with a different one (with the sake of learning something new) rather than saying you were wrong. I've seen your tutorial about scratching data, I'll try but I'm not good at programming. I'll call some friend to help me out. Anyway thanks again!

    Price patterns and odds changes

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Price patterns and odds changes First of all thank you. I'm now starting with Christos data (thanks Christos!). An hour by hour odds will be excellent to have a deeper insight. I'm quite aware that it's not at all an easy task, nor that there will be any good indicators, but I'd like to try. I found these two articles, based on US sports but deserve attention: http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/smart-money-in-sports-betting.html http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/smart-money-action-in-sports-betting.html So I accept with strong gratitude also the aid of Matthew, if I'd to choose on two leagues that would be Premier and Serie A (but I'll be more than happy if you send me also Liga and Bundesliga). I'll share my findings, if interesting. Thanks and regards

    Price patterns and odds changes

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi, I would like to develop a strategy based on price moves. Unfortunately the famous "dropping odds" theory itself isn't enough to make profit, since the descrease simply implies that most of the time value has gone. So I started to look deeper into prices moves and something interesting seems to appear but my DB is too short. I collect datas from Droppingodds.com but they don't keep too much history, so do you know a place in which find a record of odds changes? I live in Italy so I don't have acces to BF, maybe somebody has got some files to borrow ;-) Maybe we can find a pattern to identify the direction of the so called "smart money"... Thanks in advance to whom will help/share ideas. All the best

    Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield Dear Grex, it was very interesting to follow your system. I'm new to this forum and found your contribution very nice. I'd like to add some comments hoping that they might help to develop it. First of all I find that the criteria used are very similar to the ones used by the professional punters. They usually bet on stakes on your range 1,45/1,8, because they expect to have a 2/3 W/L ratio. However this ratio is very hard to achieve. Maybe it should be enforced with some further consideration, like form, H2H history, saeson's perfomance (at home). My feeling is that bet on Man U, Inter, Udinese, and in some cases Napoli at home is dangerous this year. Have you ever considered to put some extra filters on your selections? Secondly why bet365? Ok pinnacle is too high, but why not sbobet? I believe their odds complier are better and they put almost the same margins, or if you want an "average" stake, why don't just look for oddsportal.com? Thanks in advance for your reply!

    Grex's HOMES; 558 selections; +5.1% yield

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Grex's HOMES; 412 bets; +8.7% yield Dear Grex, it was very interesting to follow your system. I'm new to this forum and found your contribution very nice. I'd like to add some comments hoping that they might help to develop it. First of all I find that the criteria used are very similar to the ones used by the professional punters. They usually bet on stakes on your range 1,45/1,8, because they expect to have a 2/3 W/L ratio. However this ratio is very hard to achieve. Maybe it should be enforced with some further consideration, like form, H2H history, saeson's perfomance (at home). My feeling is that bet on Man U, Inter, Udinese, and in some cases Napoli at home is dangerous this year. Have you ever considered to put some extra filters on your selections? Secondly why bet365? Ok pinnacle is too high, but why not sbobet? I believe their odds complier are better and they put almost the same margins, or if you want an "average" stake, why don't just look for oddsportal.com? Thanks in advance for your reply!

    Statistical aid...please help me!!!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hello, I'm a newbie in this forum, after some months of observation I decided to take part of this very well informed comunity. I'd like to post a question which I'm not really able to solve. Basically is a cross probability calculation problem: Given the AVERAGE outcome fo a home team (at home) and the visiting (away) how can I match the probabilities in order to obtain the correct ones for the given cross? I'll give an example to clarify: Say that the leader plays against the least, probabilites as follows: 1st at home H:77% D:16,5% A:6,5% 20th away H:68% D:23,5% A:9,5% Moreover the overall average (all teams) is: H:47% D:27% A:26% Now since both the leader wins more than average, and the least looses more than average I should expect something like that: H:91% D:7,5% A:1,5% ... But how could be the right formula to derive these results??? Thanks in advance for any help!!!

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