Paparazzo
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Posts posted by Paparazzo
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I tried to find it on the web but it's just in greek...
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Let me see if I've got it: You take for instance 20 predictions of a match, Let's say that 18 out of 20 forecast a home win. Thus 18/20=90% or a 1,11 is your fair odd (or wisdom of the crowd odd). The market says 1,30 (still a short odd in the range of the longshoot bias) then you expect a 13% advantage... Is that correct?Not sure if I can post external websites, but basically it's has various competitions where you predict the outcome of an event (and you get points based on how accurate your predictions are). Once you've entered your predictions, you can then see the averages of everyone elses predictions. This is how I'm measuring the wisdom of the crowd. -
Godders how do you measure the wisdom and the longshot advantage?
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Well the calculation is always the same depending on the system you use, Assuming that the system works out well (gives profit) and because, as you say, this discrepancy seldom exits the odd tells us that something important is missing in the formula FOR THAT SPECIFIC MATCH. That's why maybe a good idea is either to leave or bet the opposite. Should you give a threshold, how much would be the average advantage? 105%, 120%...? Thanks
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Dear guys, I don't know if you experienced the "too good to be true" paradox... Let me go a bit in detail: I'm talking about a "valuebet" approach where is essential to calculate the fair odd to be compared to the market odd. I found, in various systems I'm testing, that if the expected advantage is above a certain level, it's better to bet the opposite selection (in an AH market only because the 1X2 market is tricky due to short DC odds) Let me show an example : Man U- Southampton selcetion 1 AH-0.5 Fair odd 1.35 Market odd 1.83. At first glance one should happily bet ManU with a huge advantage : (1.83-1)/(1.35-1)= 237% ... Well strange to say, but when the advantage is above approx. 170% maybe is worth to consider avoid betting or just bet the opposite! There can be many explanations, but right now I'm just willing to see if this happens also with other bettors, to enhance my idea and maybe built a filter or another strategy into the main strategy. Thank you all. Cheers
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Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy I will try... Thanks for your suggestions
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Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy I joined twitter just today. Sorry for the OT and stupide question, but how can I send a private message to him? I can only tweet in his page with only a few characters... not enough to address my questions...
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I've seen the blog of sotdoc (http://www.sotdoc.co.uk) and found very intriguing the idea of making profit with a different point of view compared to the algorithms that generate in-play odds. Basically the set of strategy are based on the Dixon and Nevo/Ritov theory for which “a first goal occurence could either expedite or impede the next goal scoring, depending on the time it was scored. Moreover, once a goal is scored, another goal becomes more and more likely whether the goal was scored or conceded†So I tried to make a comparison of data in the English PL (seasons from 95/96 to 98/99 versus 12/13-14/15)to see if it really can lead to profit. What I've noticed is that perhaps he is spotting an emerging trend, or maybe recent fata asre somehow gone strange. I expected a bias in the same way in both periods, but it didn't seem to be shown by the data Effect of an early away goal and 0-1 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of the away team, but 95/99 data suggest the opposite.. Effect of an early home goal and 1-0 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of higher production of goals, but 95/99 data suggest the opposite.. Effect of an early home goal and 1-1 HT: In the 95/99 this lead to a draw bias but the most recent ones show no effect Effect of an early away goal and 0-1 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of higher production of goals, but 95/99 data do not. So my question is can these conclusion be explained by a change in playing style of the recent years or shall we expect to have a shift in the future data? I tried to contact Johnny through it's contact form in his blog a few times but never received a reply. I'd love to hear about him or somebody using these strategy for an exchange of ideas. Cheers
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Re: Sample size and age of data perhaps yes. I'm trying to see this difference from another angle in order to check if there's stilla bias. But I'm quite sure that data older than 5/7 years are misleading. Just to make a well known example: years ago the Premier was monopolized by ManU, now there's a duopoly of Chelsea and Man City with Arsenal, ManU and Liverpool being not so far. This different equilibrium should bring to different scenarios. And many other examples can be made...
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Re: Sample size and age of data Both prematch odds and handicaps on AH. Basically I use data of football-data.co.uk in order to have a picture taken more or less at the same period of the week. This is to test how market's expectations are fullfilled.
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Re: Sample size and age of data The results obtained with the two dataset are significantly different. Basically percentages of teams beating the spread, with same strength, are totally different from 2000/2007 in respect to 2007/2015
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Re: Sample size and age of data Just to share something I've been observing in my investigations: it seems that data older than 8/10 yesrs seem to be less reliable. Only Premier League doesn't seem to much affected but Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga have got a data bias between 2000/2007 and 2007/2015.
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Dear all, Just an open question for an odds' statistical based model: How many matches would you consider to have good conclusions? To me even 50 matches would be enough, ideally more than 100. Due to increasing payouts during the years, how far would you go in order to catch data? In my opinion any data prior 2007 would be misleading... I mean that a 2,00 given in 2000 might be a 2,10 today... Thanks for your replies!
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Re: Hedging Asian Handicap I made some in-depth back testing and I need to make everybody aware that it doesn't work if applied to all matches. Needs to be used with a discretionary apporach.
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I'd like to share opinions about an idea arose some weeks ago. Simple strategy: Bet the Home team on the FIRST HALF Asian Handicap at the closest odd above even (i.e 2,10) Simultaneously bet (same stake) on the away team FULL TIME Asian Handicap at the closest odd above even Example on the last weekend in PL: MUFC-City 2 AH+0.25 2.36= -1 1 AH-0.25 HT 2.56=+1.56 QPR-Chelsea 2 AH-1.5 2.28= -1 1 AH+0.25 HT 2.56=+0.78 Burnely-Arsenal 2 AH-1 2.19= 0 1 AH+0.25 HT 2.20=+0.60 S'ton-Hull 2 AH+0.75 2.25= -1 1 AH-0.5 HT 2.23=-1 Sund.-Palace 2 AH-0.25 2.45= +1.45 1 AH-0.25 HT 2.6=-0.5 Tott.-AVilla 2 AH+0.75 2.19= +1.19 1 AH-0.5 HT 2.15=-1 WBrom-Le'ster 2 AH0 2.36= +1.36 1 AH-0.25 HT 2.38=+1.38 WHU-Stoke 2 AH+0.25 2.11= +0.56 1 AH-0.25 HT 2.23=+1.23 Swansea-Everton 2 AH0 2.19= 0 1 AH-0.25 HT 2.56=-1 TOTAL+3.61units ROI+20,1% :ok Should work also on the opposite direction (1AH FT - 2AH HT) as the underlying idea is that twists in a match trend occur not so often and the system can be affected positively or negatively with the same probabilities. Basically the average output is a bet won that overcompensates the other one lost. Criticism is VERY WELCOME at this stage!!! Thanks to everybody willing to discuss it. Cheers
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Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > March 6th - 9th Cordoba-Getafe over2 @2.07 SBO Looking the home Cordoba and away Getafe stats this odd seems to be very generous.
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Re: Serie A TIM > March 7th - 9th Sassuolo [email protected] SBO. Juventus not liekly to a huge scoring match, their focus is blown up tonight. I see big value on this odd
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Re: Soccer Half Time / Full Time odds relationship with HT and FT result? I've made an empirical study analyzing data on the premiership form year 2000 (thanks to football-data.co.uk). In the range of the example the fair odds (based on 412 match with a similar 1X2 odds) will be as follows: [TABLE=width: 114]
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Re: Soccer Half Time / Full Time odds relationship with HT and FT result? I guess that in the formula you should add a higher juice to the HT/FT market. Going back to your example your odds are at a 108% on 1x2, so firstly you have to normalize the percentages are (note this calculation might not 100% correct!, ie. longshot bias), Then you should know what is the probability that given the result of the FT given the HT results (ie. if HT is 1 80% of the times there will be a 1 at FT). Then you can use the Bayes theorem to derive the probabilities of HT/FT to calculate the true odds and see how much is the margin. But at the end you'll see what I stated (higher juice is involved). In your example the juice of HT/FT grows up to a 118%! This is because it is considered as an "exotic" market or simply is considered as an acca. I hope it helps...
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Dear all, just a poll to my question, as I'm developing a strategy. How many matches are needed to evaluate correctly a team's recent form? Normally 5 matches are shown but I think they should be more...
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Re: New tool for stats minded punters 1) How often: the ideal would be tick by tick (as displayed on oddsportal.com, if you go on the detail of a single match on you scroll on odds of a particular book you'll see the odd history). Alternatively if you can catch all days for each league (normally two) then a hourly collection would be enough. 2)About Bookies my list concerns football (that's why for example I don't put 5dimes) "must have": Pinnacle (which offers only the next day as policy) and Sbobet; "useful": Marathon (early publishing odds), Bet365, Betvictor, Bwin, Dafabet, Interwetten "optional": Paddypower, Sportingbet, Tipico, Ladbrokes, 888bet, unibet, coral, paf Deliberately I didn't mention any exchange, that's because their prices are meaningful just when the match is about to start. If I can suggest I'd start with the 4 four major leagues (Premier, Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A) then Ligue 1, Championship, Liga Portugal, Elleniki, Superlig, Scottish Premier and so on. Markets: 1X2, U/O (2,5), AH (base spread only otherwise you go crazy!) as football-data do. I'll be glad to give you more support, if you want to contact me my email is: [email protected] Good luck and do not hesitate to ask :ok
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Re: New tool for stats minded punters My suggestion, or better said, what I'd like to have for my betting preference is a tracking of past/present odds. Following your analysis of what is missing is someting that traces the evolution of odds (1X2, U/O and AH). As far as I know there's only droppingodds.com but only for Pinnacle odds. For example football-data do map a good variety of bookmakers but just once per match (tue-fri afternoon), well making it more times per day would be excellent and I'll definitively pay for it. I hope I gave you an idea for further evolutions of your excellent work that deserves much more attention.
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Re: Strategy help Better to focus on one sport and few leagues. I'd choose the ones with lower margins (so Premier and Bundesliga or NBA). But if you have a very strong knowledge on a minor sport go for it!
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Re: Price patterns and odds changes well my view is to do as Christos says, maybe wait till the morning to see what's going on in Asia. Yes you might find a swing in trend and have better odds, but also crowd might confirm the trend and thus have a worse price. Swing example of last weekend were: WBA-Newcastle, Swansea-Arsenal, Wolfsburg-Hamburg and Roma-Torino, just to mention some... So yes you can also use this approach but 2hs prematch is a very excited time so you might not find the right odd still available if you use more than one book, and also weekends might be socially complicated... I prefer the night before
Market trends
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
I'd like to open a discussion about dropping odds as a strategy for bets' selection.
It's quite overdone as strategy, and it doesn't work mostly because of arbitrages or just because the odd has lost its value due to market movements.
But I found that in value betting strategy, the narket movements towards our selection can be a good confirmation and hence a good filter.
Do you have an opinion about it?
Thanks in advance for any contribution!