THFC84
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Posts posted by THFC84
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Re: Manchester City v Stoke City > Saturday August 30th Manchester City -2 Asian Handicap 19/20 @ Bet365 Man City have made a good start to the season with 2 fairly comfortable wins against Newcastle and Liverpool whereas Stoke have made quite a poor start so far with a home defeat against Aston Villa followed by a draw at Hull where the Tigers went down to 10 men in the first 15 mins yet Stoke still couldn't beat them and were lucky to get a draw in the end with a scrappy late goal. Man City also have the added benefit coming into this game of having 2 days extra rest because Stoke play a Capital One Cup tie on Wednesday night so fatigue could be an issue. Man City have won 15 of their last 20 home league games by 2 goals or more. Since Stoke got promoted their record away to Man City in the league is terrible with 6 defeats from 6 games scoring 0 goals and conceding 15. Also, Aguero may start against Stoke and I can't see any other result than a comfortable Man City win in this one. Odds of 4/5 for City to win to nil look like a good bet but one mistake could ruin the bet so i prefer City on a -2 AH
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Re: Burnley v Manchester United > Saturday August 30th Both Teams To Score 10/11 @ Bet365 - United's defence is clearly their weakness this season but they have great talent in attack especially now they have signed Di Maria. Both Teams To Score would have won in both of United's league games so far and in 1 out of the 2 games Burnley have played in the league. Burnley managed to score at home against what is in my opinion the best defence in the league (Chelsea) and i expect them to go on the front foot against United as they have nothing to fear in terms of the United defence and attack will be the best form of defence for them in this game. On the other hand i struggle to see Burnley keeping a clean sheet with the likes of Mata, Rooney and Van Persie in attack for United as well as probably Di Maria if he starts. I can definitely see goals in this game and i think 10/11 are good odds for both sides to find the net.
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Queens Park Rangers > Sunday August 24th Tough game this for Spurs after playing on Thursday night. QPR have signed Fer and Vargas this week and they might feature in this game. I watched Spurs against West Ham and we were very average apart from the opening 15 minutes and a draw would probably have been a fair result in the end. Defensively we looked vulnerable at set-pieces and we lacked a cutting edge in the final third. I didn't see QPR's game against Hull but from what i hear they were the better team and deserved at least a point if not all three. They have made some shrewd signings this summer with the likes of Caulker, Isla, Fer and Vargas and it looks like they are going to keep hold of Remy as well. In regards to this game, i can see Spurs edging it 1-0 or 2-1. However, Spurs lost 6 of the 12 games that they played after a Europa League game last season which included 4 home defeats and i would not be surprised at all if this game ended 1-1 or 0-1 to QPR. I won't be betting on this game but in my unbiased opinion i think taking QPR on a +1 Asian Handicap would be a solid bet at odds of nearly 11/10.
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Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Saturday August 16th Just a few stats for anyone interested in playing the Over/Under 2.5 market. Only 1 out of the last 9 early kick-offs on the opening weekend has gone Over 2.5 goals Liverpool 1-0 Stoke Spurs 0-0 Man City Chelsea 2-1 Hull Arsenal 1-0 West Brom Sunderland 1-0 Spurs Sheffield United 1-1 Liverpool Everton 0-2 Man Utd Spurs 1-1 Liverpool Birmingham 1-0 Spurs A total of 13 goals in the last 9 early kick-offs (1.44 goals per game) United have looked good in preseason with 5 wins 1 draw and 0 defeats and they have played some really good teams as well including, Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Roma and Liverpool so I think United will win fairly comfortably. Swansea will sit back and try and contain United so i wouldn't be so sure on the Overs and i fancy a straightforward 2-0 win for United. Correct Score: Man Utd 2-0 Swansea 6/1 @ BetVictor
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Re: Ante-Post > Premier League 2014/15 Relegation
Yes once in 1997-98 season Barnsley, Bolton & Crystal Palace all went back downHas there ever been a season in the EPL where all 3 promotion teams get relegated? -
Re: Ante-Post > Premier League Top Goalscorer 2014/15 Edin Dzeko E/W To Be Top Goalscorer 20/1 @ William Hill - Alvaro Negredo is out injured for a few months so Dzeko is likely to get more playing time. He scored 16 goals in 31 league games last season although quite a few of them appearances were from the bench. In his time in the Premier League over the last 3 seasons he has scored 14, 14 and 16 goals so he is certainly consistent. His record of scoring a goal every 134 minutes in the Premier League over the last 3 years is one of the best and Negredo's injury should see him get more starts this season. Wilfried Bony E/W To Be Top Goalscorer 28/1 @ Bet365 - Bony scored 17 goals in the league last season in 34 games and altogether managed 26 goals in 48 games in all competitions, a record which is better than 1 in 2. If they can stay injury-free then the top goalscorer will be Aguero or Van Persie in my opinion. However, Aguero has had a lot of injuries lately and Van Persie had a long-term injury last season and is known for being injury prone so i wouldn't be surprised if they both picked up injuries and were out for a couple of months next season. I'm not sure Sturridge will do quite as well next season with no Suarez to link up with him. Diego Costa may take time to adjust to the league and may take a season to adjust, likewise with Sanchez. Therefore, you could make a case against all of the top 5 in the betting and i see no reason why Bony can't finish near the top goalscorer position especially now he has had a season of Premier League experience under his belt. He is being linked with Liverpool and Tottenham which would make this a stronger bet if he moved to one of them clubs with better players providing for him. To be honest i think the top goalscorer will be either Aguero or Van Persie if they stay fit but there is not much value backing them at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively. For me one of the best value bets in the market is Bony. Stevan Jovetic E/W to be Top Goalscorer 100/1 @ Bet Victor One of the players who i was impressed with last season and i think will have a great season this time is Jovetic. He barely played mainly because of injury, managing only just over 600 minutes in all competitions but he really impressed me. Although he is not an out and out sriker he still managed a goal every 101 minutes in all competitions and if Pellegrini gives him a starting role next season behind Aguero or as a left winger then he can flourish. It is unlikely both him and Dzeko will get a starting role with Aguero also in the side but if he does then a place in the top 4 of goalscorers list is not beyond his reach.
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Re: Ante-Post > Premier League 2014/15 Relegation Early thoughts for me are that West Brom look decent value at 3/1 to go down. I'm not convinced by their appointment of Alan Irvine, they finished 17th last season and only escaped relegation by 3 points. For me they lack a goalscorer, their two strikers at the minute are Anichebe and Berahino. Defensively they look solid enough with the likes of Foster and Lescott in their squad but i just cannot see them scoring enough goals with the squad they have at the minute. Long way to go before the season starts of course but they stand out as good value to go down.
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Re: Semi-Final - Netherlands v Argentina > Wednesday July 9th Netherlands to Qualify 5/4 @ William Hill - Argentina have not impressed me at all in this World Cup and i can't believe how bad they have been. On paper this team should be blowing everyone out of the water with their attack but it just hasn't clicked and they have had to rely on Messi to get them out of jail but i think their run will end here. Argentina have managed to sneak one goal victories against Bosnia. Iran, Nigeria, Switzerland (Extra Time) and Belgium but they now face a step up in class against the Dutch. Out of all of the 4 teams left i would say the Dutch have been the most impressive in this World Cup although they made hard work of seeing off Mexico and Costa Rica but prior to that they were great particularly against Spain and had a great result against Chile. Their 5-3-2 formation has worked wonders in this tournament and they are very good on the break with Robben in particular. I can see Messi and Co struggling to break this Netherlands team down with their 3 centre backs and the Dutch are more than capable of scoring on the counter particularly with Mascherano and possibly Demichellis in the team who are not exactly the quickest. I can't see Argentina sitting deep in this game and they will probably do most of the attacking which suits Holland as seen by the fact they struggle to break teams down when they sit deep like against Costa Rica but do well against the likes of Spain and Chile who like to attack. Taking all that into account i see Netherlands going through to concsecutive World Cup Finals. Good Luck.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Brazil to Qualify Evens @ William Hill - You could argue a strong case for either of these teams qualifying but i feel that the home crowd could have a big role to play in this game. Germany have been notorious bottlers of late in major competitions losing the World Cup Final in 2002 ironically to Brazil and being knocked out in the Semi-Final in 2006 and 2010 by Italy and Spain. They also lost in the Final of Euro 2008 to Spain and lost in the Semi-Finals of Euro 2012 to Italy. There seems to be a mental block with German teams over the last 12 years where they just cannot get over the line and buckle under the pressure. Despite Neymar and Thiago Silva's absence i still see Brazil as slight favourites to qualify. They have not played well in this World Cup but are good at grinding out wins when playing badly. Germany have not particularly impressed me apart from their opening 4-0 win against Portugal although Portugal went down to 10 men in the first half. Taking into account the importance of home advantage and the fact that Germany have fallen regularly at this stage of the tournament lately i see Brazil going through.
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Re: Quarter-Final - Brazil v Colombia > Friday July 4th Draw or Colombia 21/20 @ Bet365 - Brazil were my picks to win it before the start of the tournament but they have not lived up to many people's expectations unlike Colombia who look like potential winners in my opinion. I can't see Brazil beating Colombia in 90 minutes because they struggled against Chile and Colombia are a better side than Chile IMO. Brazil looked a very short price against Chile and 4/5 is still too short now. Colombia have the better attack and the better defence so i cannot see them losing in 90 minutes.
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Re: Group E - Honduras v Ecuador > Friday June 20th Under 2.5 goals Evens @ Bet365 - I would have thought unders would be the favourite here but it's the other way round. Honduras were holding France at bay for 45 minutes up until the sending off but offered very little up front and have scored just 2 goals in their 7 world Cup games in their history. Ecuador are an average side but nothing special and whilst i think they will win this game i think it will probably be a tight 0-1. If Honduras fail to score which they have done in their last 5 World Cup games then Ecuador would have to score 3 for this game to go overs and i don't see that happening considering Honduras held France for the first 45 minutes. Games between 2 relatively weak teams normally results in not many goals as shown by the Mexico vs Cameroon and particularly the Iran vs Nigeria game.
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Re: Group B - Spain v Chile > Wednesday June 18th Chile +1 AH 1.900 @ Bet365 - I'm surprised you can get a one goal headstart for Chile at nearly Evens here. Spain were completely destroyed by Holland in the second half with Robben's pace and Chile have players like Sanchez who are capable of doing the same. The manner of Spain's defeat must surely have knocked their confidence and Chile could take advantage. Even if Spain win by one you get your stake back so odds of nearly evens is very good in my opinion as there is a far greater chance of Chile winning or getting a draw than Spain winning by 2 goals or more.
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Qualify from Group Betting Agree that Bosnia will go through as there is a clear difference in quality between Bosnia and both Iran and Nigeria. However, rather than go for a straight bet for them to qualify i quite like the odds of them beating both Nigeria and Iran which is a best price 19/10 @SkyBet. It's a bit riskier than a staight bet to qualify but is better value in my opinion.
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Re: Group C - Ivory Coast v Japan > Saturday June 14th Both Teams To Score 21/20 @ Ladbrokes There are very few games i see going BTTS in this first round of games but this is definitely one of them. Both Japan and Ivory Coast strengths are in their attack and their weakness is their defence. Japan's main threats are Kagawa, Honda and Okazaki and the way Japan play means that they frequently both score and concede which is proven by the fact that 12 of their last 16 games has resulted in BTTS and 5 of their last 6 games has had at least 4 goals. Ivory Coast are also a side with many goal threats like Drogba,Toure, Bony, Kalou and Gervinho amongst others but their defence can be quite vulnerable at times. Ivory Coast's last 7 games have resulted in BTTS and that record stretches back to 11 of their last 12 games resulting in BTTS. Therefore given the fact that both sides strengths are their attack, odds against for BTTS looks like a cracking price and even though opening round games are often cagey i still see value at 21/20
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Re: Group A - Brazil v Croatia > Thursday June 12th Brazil To Win To Nil 17/20 @ SportingBet Brazil come into the World Cup in great form winning 15 of their last 16 games and 11 of those 15 wins were to nil. Croatia will be without their main goal threat in Mario Mandzukic and whilst they have some very talented midfielders in Modric and Rakitic their striking options without Mandzukic are fairly weak. I don't think we will see many goals in this one as both sides will try to feel their way into the tournament but Brazil should have enough to overcome Croatia and shut them out at the back.
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Group Winner Betting Greece to Win Group C 15/2 @ Betfred Greece are being underrated in my opinion. They are solid defensively conceding only 4 goals in qualifying and 3 of those were in one game against Bosnia. They are not strong in attack but if they keep it tight at the back then they will always have a chance to win games. This group is by far the most open out of all the groups and 15/2 is a very big price in my opinion for a Greek side who don't lose many having lost just 5 out of their last 45 games since the 2010 World Cup. If Greece are able to get a point from their first game against Colombia then they will have a real chance against Japan and Ivory Coast who are both shaky defensively. Colombia are the strongest team in the group but at odds of 15/2 i am willing to take a chance on the Greeks here. :hope
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Qualify from Group Betting Iran and Costa Rica to finish bottom of their groups 10/11 @ Coral - Costa Rica are in a very difficult group with England, Italy and Uruguay and are the weakest team by some distance. Iran have an easier group with Argentina, Bosnia and Nigeria but i cannot see them finishing anywhere but bottom of the group. Bosnia proved they are a good side in qualification and are solid defensively and have the likes of Pjanic, Dzeko and Ibisevic in attack. Nigeria have some Premier League players in their side with John Obi Mikel, Victor Moses and others and have recent experience in the World Cup. Iran's squad on paper is very poor and has only one Premier League player in Dejagah. They struggled in 2006 picking up just 1 point and i can't see them doing any better this time even with an experienced manager in charge. Highest Scoring Group: Group B (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia) 5/1 @ William Hill I can see this group being the high scoring group because there is so much attacking talent on show. Chile's style of play means that they will certainly score goals with Sanchez leading the way but they will also concede and are vulnerable defensively. In qualifying Chile scored 29 goals and conceded 25 in 16 games (an average of nearly 3.4 goals per game). Netherlands are fairly strong in attack with the likes of Robben and Van Persie but are weak defensively and Chile and Spain should get goals against them. Spain are typically an underish team with a solid defence, however i can see them scoring a few against all of these teams because neither Australia, Chile or Holland are defensively strong. Australia are likely to be the whipping boys of the group and should concede at least 2 against all of the other 3 teams you would expect. All in all i can see lots of goals in this group and 5/1 seems like a decent price for Group B to be the highest scoring group.
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Re: Group B - Spain v Netherlands > Friday June 13th Spain are 11/8 with SkyBet to score 2 goals or more which looks a great bet to me. Holland are poor defensively and Spain now have a proper striker in Diego Costa so they should score at least 2 against the Dutch.
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Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th Half Time Score: Bayern Munich 0-0 Real Madrid 14/5 @ Bwin Full Time Score: Bayern Munich 1-0 Real Madrid 19/2 @ BetVictor Under 2.5 Goals 6/4 @ BetVictor Bayern Munich to win on Penalties 45/1 @ Paddy Power Real Madrid to win on Penalties 45/1 @ Paddy Power I won't be going big on these bets as this game is so tough to call. However, i'm not convinced we will see a goalfest here. It wouldn't make sense for Bayern to go all out attack in this game as they know that an away goal for Madrid will mean they need 3 to qualify. Instead i think they will start off quite conservatively and only start pressing for a goal in the second half so for me 0-0 at half-time is a good price at 14/5. Madrid will play on the counter and let Bayern have all the possession they want and i can see both teams being scared to concede particularly Bayern. Therefore, Under 2.5 goals looks quite appealing at 6/4. In the unlikely event that this game does go to extra-time i think we are unlikely to see a goal with both teams being more scared to concede than looking to score and towards the end they would probably both settle for a penalty shootout. Guardiola and Ancelotti are both brilliant managers and i think this will be a great tactical game but i don't see a lot of goals in this one despite the great attacking talent on show.
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Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Sunday April 27th Chelsea +2 Asian Handicap Corners 17/20 @ Bet365 Chelsea to have more corners than Liverpool 12/5 @ Bet365 These bets are based entirely on stats. Chelsea's away record in the league for corners this season is 10 wins and 7 losses. Liverpool's home record for corners is 6 wins 3 draws and 8 losses. Liverpool average 5 corners per game this season and Chelsea average 6 per game.
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Re: Arsenal v Newcastle United > Monday April 28th Arsenal -1.75 AH Evens @ Bet365 - I can't see Arsenal having any problems in this game even though Remy is back for Newcastle. Newcastle are terrible at the minute, they've lost 13 of their last 18 games and have no motivation for this game whatsoever. Arsenal look to be on a good run of form at the minute after easily beating Hull 0-3. Ramsey has returned for them and he seems to make a big difference to them. They have won back to back games and this should be a comfortable win for them and I fancy a 3-0 win for the Gunners here and will be taking them on the AH.
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Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th Bayern are way too short at that price!
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Re: Everton v Crystal Palace > Wednesday April 16th Spincast: Everton to win, Under 3.5 goals & Romelu Lukaku to score anytime 9/2 @ Betvictor - Normally don't do these sorts of bets but 9/2 looks quite big to me here. Whilst this won't be an easy game for Everton, they are in great form with 7 league wins on the bounce and i expect them to just have enough to win, probably an edgy 1-0 or 2-1 victory. Romelu Lukaku has been in good form since coming back from injury scoring 5 goals in 8 games and 3 goals in his last 4 appearances at Goodison Park so he looks like Everton's most likely goalscorer. Also, i can't see this game going over 3.5 as both these sides are good defensively. This bet is basically Lukaku to score anytime and Everton to win either 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 and 9/2 looks like a big price for that to happen in my opinion.
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Re: Manchester City v Sunderland > Wednesday April 16th Man City -2.25 AH Evens @ Paddy Power - Man City will want to make a statement that they're still in the title race and i can see them winning this comfortably by at least 3 goals with Aguero now back for City although Toure is a big miss they should still have enough firepower to win easily against a Sunderland side who have lost 5 in a row. Man City have won 8 out of their 15 home games this season by 3 or more goals and recently beat Fulham 5-0 and Southampton 4-1. Sunderland lost 5-1 against Spurs in their last away game so City should cover the handicap here. 3-0 City.
Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland > Saturday August 30th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland > Saturday August 30th Sunderland Draw No Bet 6/5 @ Paddy Power QPR looked absolutely dreadful last week against Tottenham and whilst i can't see them playing that bad this week i would be surprised if they won this game. Sunderland have drawn both their games so far but they have looked far more impressive than QPR. Sunderland look like a more settled team than the R's and they should be slight favourites in this game IMO. Also, a key player for QPR, Faurlin is probably out for this game and so might last season's top scorer Charlie Austin.