Toronto_Mike
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Posts posted by Toronto_Mike
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Re: Japan J League 15/16 August crazy hey not one single game to go over
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Re: Brazil » Série A (7/9 august) Interesting to see Gremio, Gremio Barueri, Fluminense and Vitoria play on both the 7th AND 9th.
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Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10
I know sides is where you can rake it in, for the last few seasons I've noticed many punters really getting frustrated with that league, it's one of those "This seems too good to be true" sort of prices. As for the lower leagues, I agree, there's just way too many games for the bookies to set lines for, they definitely will make an error somewhere along the way and not keep notes on injuries, suspensions, etc. BOL!I had been playing only overs for almost a year, and I found that Championship is not a good league for best-priced overs. In general, the lower the league the better the punting because people's information is not as good, especially with something as random as total goals. I don't know about sides in ECL, though. (For the opening weekend, the best-priced side is Boro home to Sheff Utd; best-priced overs is Reading-Nottingham.) The opening two weeks in any league are the best for finding value...too many people make bets based on last year's results (meaningless) and this year's chatter. -
Re: Brazil » Série A (5/6 august) Two teams I have a hard time reading are Goias and Coritiba, I don't believe I've wagered a game that has them in it. We must certainly respect Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro I think these two will make the biggest moves until the end of the season. Don't be surprised if Sao Paulo ends up in the G-4
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Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10
You aren't the only one there bud, I think this happens to a lot of us, tend to get over excited and lose sense of the entire purpose of the system. Stick to what has been working for you, build up some momentum and don't look back. Do you play the bigger leagues as well? Have you paid attention the Championship league in England? I noticed that one was rather harsh for public bettors last season.Today 8-7, overall 59-61, +4.3 units Today's picks taken prior to today went 5-2, but the ones I added this morning went 3-5...I took one -1.5 game that I couldn't resist for some stupid reason (loss), allowed the chatter on the boards here to talk me out of a play (win), and then took the Greuther play as some sort of consolation prize (loss). Here's what I learned: Don't listen to the chatter, don't take plays that don't fit the strategy. I've been doing this for five years and I still I have to remind myself of this sort of behavior. -
Re: Norway, Weekend, 1st - 3rd of August. Excellent punting, keep it up!
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Re: Brazil » Série A (1/2 august) Avai gets the job done, although it was very unattractive to watch them sit and counter it's a tactic and they certainly frustrated the living daylights out of Timao. Infact there were occasions Avai could of won it, but nevertheless I think they are satisfied with the point and move long to continue their unbeaten run!
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Re: Brazil » Série A (1/2 august) hmmm unders galore so far...wonder i that will change in the next set of games?
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Re: Brazil » Série A (1/2 august) have to say Avai are very very physical tonight, really bullying Timao around and frustrating them.
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Re: Brazil » Série A (1/2 august) Going to go against the grain but playing Corinthians ML now the value at around 2.00 on a home win is going to worth it. Sure they are without Dentinho/Ronaldo...ummm do they not also have other players to fill in the void. Mind you they did get their arse handled to rivals Palmeiras...do you really think they lose twice in a row at home? doubt it.
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 29/31 july )
Sport fired another coach? Jesus no stability at that club at the moment.Don't know about suspensions and injuries yet. But three games caught my eyes. Goiás x Atlético Paranaense - Goiás should welcome back 3 or 4 players for this match. The team is motivated (fighting for a place in the next Libertadores, after two great results facing Palmeiras and Atlético Mineiro) and very organized in the pitch. But Goias is like Hobin Hood, take from the rich and give to the poor. I really believe that we're going to see Atlético Paranaense in Série B next year, so I think Goiás is gonna take 3 points in midweek. Cruzeiro x Sport - Cruzeiro is a good, solid football team. Very strong playing at home. After a bad start, playing two competitions at same time, should be back on track very soon, and I think Sport (that dismissed the coach today) is gonna be another victim in their way to the top. Palmeiras x Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro is going to play away against Flamengo, so it's a great opportunity for Palmeiras to take the lead, the game is the debut of the new coach, Muricy Ramalho, and I think the players wanna impress the new boss. Fluminense show some improvements since Renato Gaucho took over the team, but I think that's just not enough. -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july )
Yes I know' date=' but in a league where away wins are hard to come by, I'd expect things to get back to normal next weekend.[/quote'] Again why do people get surprised when they see a stat for high home wins and then there is one weekend where away teams dominate? If you expect to see home wins week in and week out, i think we'd all be rich by now don't you think? Sure it may balance out next week but again no need to be surprised by an odd week of road wins, it happens in every league. It's the same as oh how come there weren't any goals this week when the league usually has a high rate of goals to come by and vice versa. France usually has a good percentage of home wins but even then they will go through a phase where home teams will dominate than it will balance out that the road teams will be victorious. You can't always base everything on stats, end of the day the better teams will win no matter home or away. -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july )
Nothing is for sure, think the problem is that people will automatically assume that the home teams with the lowest odds will be a "LOCK" to win. Not necessarily the case I think we tend to overlook that throughout the course of the season games we never even discuss is where the surprising results come in.You preempted my next point, which was going to be about next weekend. Surely there is likely to be a higher number of home wins next weekend. -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july )
For a league that has an historical amount of low away wins each year' date=' there have been quite a few today![/quote'] It evens out you can't always have home teams dominate week in and week out then the percentages would be off the roof. Still home teams are winning at a 47% clip which is pretty standard although the draw number is creeping up. -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july ) I agree with Milos here, Sao Paulo should at least get a draw out of this game. They have such a talented midfield that the only thing that is missing really is their mentality. Yes they are managerlesss but perhaps they needed a change a new sense of guidance. I don't see why a team on paper like Sao Paulo should not be winning games consistently.
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Re: Brasil Serie A 2009-2010 Preview
Haha again it's prediction based on what I've seen on team news and team play. How many people could of predicted Barueri to do this well and Cruzeiro to crap the bed. Either way there's still plenty of games to go, Sao Paulo made a crazy push last year to win the title so you never know the teams you see now may struggle if they don't start getting reinforcement soons, because the big boys are surely now focused in league play due to the end of Copa Libertadores.
Barueri are doing much better than u stated.i do not thk they will be even near to 15th in the league. Corinthians ,damn losers if u get more news to rectify ur previous post,u r most welcome.:cheers -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july ) Botafogo is a good line to look at. Nilmar just signed with Villarreal and won't be in the line up tonight. So there goes one of their lethel weapons. Cruzeiro no longer have Ramires in their squad as he is now a Benfica player. Corinthians/Palmeiras is a Derby and this is the rematch of the Regional Finals. Sao Paulo are managerless since former manager went to Palmeiras. Cuca is out as Flamengo's manager.
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july ) Hmmm there I take Cruzeiro 0? Think they can wind up another road victory
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july ) some big big games this weekend Sport vs Nautico - Recife Derby Corinthians vs Palmeiras - Sao Paulo Derby
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Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 i'm actually on a lot of the same plays, can you believe it, we can agree on somethings!
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 22/23 july )
Well what can you say just continue to play Barueri until they lose lolGrêmio Barueri +0.5AH at @1' date=82 (betCHRONICLE) - 7/10:ok Grêmio Barueri ML at @4,00 (BETFRED) - 2/10:\ well, +10.74 units for me:clap -
Re: Brazil » Série A ( 24/26 july ) good on you Bagzi, that's a good line there, hope it doesn't turn out to a Santos disaster. Tricolor just look like terrible right now.
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 22/23 july ) this is crazy, first 4 games goes 0-0 @ HT what is this French Ligue now? lol
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Re: Brazil » Série A ( 22/23 july ) with the way the scores are, surely the pace must pick up on the latter games!
Champions Lge Qual (18/08/2009)
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Champions Lge Qual (18/08/2009) Price on Arsenal is an overreaction to their win on the weekend. They play with great flare but everytime they play a team that plays extremely physical, they tend to crumble. I don't think Celtic will intend to play any sort of beautiful football, just hold their ground and muscle their younger opposition around. That being said don't know if Celtic will win but I'm pretty confident they won't get beaten handsomely, this game could get very ugly