clubgowi
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Posts posted by clubgowi
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Re: Ligue 2 > November 7th - 10th
France Ligue 2: Nancy-Creteil
A point will take Nancy into the top three and the promotion spots, a win into second and a four goal victory will see them replace Brest at the top of the table, so a huge amount for them to play for. I was very keen on Nancy over the second half of last season as many of you will probably recall and was especially taken with Jeff Louis (pictured) who looked far too good for Ligue 2 and found his way to Standard Liege in the summer, who probably see him as a good investment and a player they will turn a profit on.
Having come so close to promotion last time round and losing Louis, I was not quite sure how this season would pan out for them, so left them alone through the early games, but we did discuss briefly their last home start against Le Havre .... Two inform sides who are unbeaten in six and five starts respectively. We have talked a lot about the visitors already this season and previews from two recent games, including their 1-0 defeat of Arles last time out, are reproduced below the "good luck" signoff. A win for either team would take them level on points with Brest and Troyes in the promotion places, just two adrift of leader Dijon, many Ligue 2 viewers would have named that trio as the three stronger teams in the division pre season and possible these as the next two and for once, we have the cream rising to the top early and we could be in for a classic L2 campaign. Nancy and Brest have drawn a lot of games, but I suspect it will be the teams who are bravest in the h2h "six pointers" who will ultimately prevail and I hope we will see both go for it tonight. Last five meetings have seen both teams score in each, with four going "over" and I hope to see a similar level of entertainment tonight. Despite getting the points, HAC rode their luck at times at home to Angers, who enjoyed great success down both flanks and enjoyed little luck in front of goal. HAC get both Leroy and Ikoko back today, but are without three goal striker Moussa Sao and central defender Steven Fortes and that leaves them a little more vulnerable through the centre and if Nancy have as much joy out wide as Angers, that will be especially dangerous and short of options upfront, aside from top scorer Mickael Le Bihan,but Bonnet, Leroy and Gamboa are usually good for 5-6 each per year and only have one between them, so are overdue . Nancy have won the last seven home meetings, including a 2-1 win here in the cup earlier this season and if they were to win, I would expect a similar scoreline.Both to score and best value for me at these odds, is with the "over".
That did indeed play out perfectly, with a repeat of the 2-1 scoreline and they followed up with a fine 4-1 road win at Niort last weekend, Nancy are on an eight match unbetaen run and it is hard to pick too many holes in their recent form, although if I tried and of course I am going to, it would be that they have kept just a single clean sheet in that sequence and given the way that Creteil play (more shortly) and the fact the three h2h meetings last season ended in score draws 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 , it is easy to make a case for BTS as a starting point.
We discussed Creteil a LOT last month and did quite well taking "overs" in their games, although we came up short in the last of those previews, which you can read at the foot of the email. However, it did end 1-1 and they have since lost 2-1 at home to Souchaux, so both teams have now scored in 15 of Creteil's last 17 starts.
Hosts are without suspended central defender Joel Sami, who is amongst the very first names on the team sheet, the only game he has missed this season was a 2-2 draw with Auxerre ( can you see where I am going with this ?) and he only missed two last season, which included a 3-2 home loss to Tours.
The visitors are missing defensive midfielder Ibrahima Seck, he has sat out ten games over the last two seasons through which Creteil have scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.4 , but that is more or less what they do anyway.
I feel ( no prizes for guessing) that both will score, but offensively Nancy look good and the win is very valuable to them , especially with a trip to promotion rivals Troyes immediately after the international break. However, something like 2-2 would not surprise me and I will opt for 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
I have seen 3.75-4.0 for Creteil to score over 1.5 goals something they did on both visits last season (one friendly) and that makes some appeal given that Nancy rarely keep a clean sheet.
Take care if betting in running and this is all square at the break, Nancy have drawn all three home starts in which they were level at HT, Creteil have drawn all four on the road when level after 45 minutes. Last season Nancy went on to draw 60% ( 9 from 15) of all games when level at the break.
I must admit, this 2-2 draw keeps call me !
Nancy : Nardi, Ndy Assembe, Cuffaut, Lenglet, Diagne, Muratori, Amadou, Lusamba, Cétout, Iglesias, Walter, Karaboué, Coulibaly, Dalé, Dembélé, Hadji. Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Augusto, Diarrassouba, Diedhiou C., Ilunga, Montaroup - Dabo, Dias, Genest, Lafon, Lesage, Ndoye - Andriatsima, Essombé, Piquionn
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Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets Season is over for the Jets, the Steelers and Big Ben are just getting started and need the win to stay ahead of the Browns at the top of the AFC North. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks and it is almost impossible to see the Jets, who have given up the second most points in the NFL keeping them out for too long, Then the problems really start ! The Jets are ranked 30th for scoring and 32nd for passing yards, which means they are up against when chasing games, as they invariably are . We touched upon Pittsburgh last week .... Massive game for Pittsburgh, already playing catch up in the division and with a loss to the Ravens in Baltimore, they simply have to find a way to edge this. They are coming off two big home wins, over the Texans and Colts, where their heavily criticised offense, most notably by Snoop Dogg, came up with the goods and 81 points. QB Ben Roethlisberger broke all franchise records with 522 yards and six touchdowns in what many have called one of the best QB performances of all time , not sure about that , but it was a great showing against an inform opponent and one who had kept the Bengals scoreless just seven days earlier and things have suddenly all come together for the Steelers. The hosts are retiring the jersey of former great Joe Greene at half time today and it is not really the done thing to lose on such days, that is a "bonus", but the match up I really like today is Big Ben and his receivers against a weakened Ravens secondary, if his offensive can just give him a little time and they are improving week by week, he should be able to pick their biggest rival apart offensively. Roethlisberger has thrown 12 touchdown passes in two weeks, the Jets just 21 in two seasons ! Steeler Nation are taking over the MetLife Stadium today and 30,000 + visiting fans could be at the game, with 25% of ticket sales from Pennsylvania and it is going to feel like a home game for the Steelers. 1.5 units Pittsburgh Steelers -4 points 1.99 Pinnacle / vegas line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Brazil Serie A Thread 2014 Brazil Serie A : Botafogo- Atletico Paranaense We discussed Botafogo's last home match ..... This match is being played in the Arena Amazonia in Manaus, Botafogo played Corinithians here two weeks ago winning 1-0. They are two points from safety, but are five adrift of the team who are currently 6th from bottom and this is a match they have to get something from, as a trip to leaders Cruzeiro in seven days time promises very little. Flamengo are in good form and have won 3 from 4, including a 2-0 home win over Internacional in midweek. That leaves them with 40 points and like Paranaense, very comfortable in mid table, save from any real relegation concerns , but too far adrift of the Copa places. Therefore, I expect their attention to turn to their Copa do Brasil campaign, they are in the last four and face a semi final home leg with Atletico Mineiro in midweek and surely they will give that priority. Conditions surely favour the hosts, who must also have the lion's share of motivation and win or lose, odds are juicy ! They landed a very nice level ball bet there at nice odds and although this match is being played back in Rio and odds are not as big , motivation remains the same and I have no desire to desert them now that they have proved they can get the job done, when the pressure is really on. They have since lost at league leaders and defending champions Cruzeiro 2-1, no shame in that and it is this game they will have been targeting and three points would haul the hosts out of the drop zone, at least for 24 hours and anything less is going to leave them in big trouble, ahead of a trip to Copa Libertadores chasing Fluminense next weekend. Atletico are "safe" in 9th place and right now are just about the ideal opponent and one who has already underperformed on the road against desperate relegation battlers. They have two home games up next and they will be the focus for the visitors and it is hard to see them matching the intensity of Botafogo, who have three of their next four starts on the road.....season defining game for the hosts ! 1.5 units Botafogo -0.25 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > November 4th & 5th Championship: Millwall-Blackburn Rovers These two met at the end of last season, at the time Millwall were at the foot of the table with games fast running out and Rovers just running into form and with an outside chance of making the playoffs ..... The two previews today are centred around the bottom three, they all look in big trouble, they might only be three points behind Charlton, but Athletic have 2-3 games in hand and taking goal difference into account, the trio probably need to pick up seven + points with time fast running out. Millwall are coming off a costly 3-2 home defeat to Birmingham City in midweek, a win there would have dragged the Blues right into the heart of the equation, now they have a buffer over the drop zone and the Lions case is clear and they have to be all guns blazing for the three points today. Rovers were also involved in a high scoring match in midweek, sharing six goals with Watford at Vicarage Road, that is their second straight high scoring away game, after winning 4-2 at Huddersfield. There is no point in thir holding back here either, they are safe in midtable, but "only" eight points behind Reading who hold the final playoff spot, with a game in hand. They have home games up next against teams in 8th and 9th, so a mathematical chance still, but one which will effectively evaporate if they do not win this afternoon. Lions boss Ian Holloway said after the midweek loss:"We've got eight games left and we've probably got to win five of them, then we might stay up."You probably think I'm crazy, but I don't. I think we can do it with the chances we are creating. "I'm devastated, I have to say that. It was a must-not-lose game and we've lost it. We've got to keep fighting." Rovers are still talking about the post season and feel they have build up a lot of momentum over the last three games. A draw will not help either team overly much, both are happier on the front foot and their need will drive them forward. The Lions led twice, but Rovers were the better team for my money and came away with a 2-2 draw, that helped us as we took the "over", but was a blow to their respective ambitions. However, Millwall did survive and Rovers came up just two points short of a post season spot, after collecting 39 points through the second half of the season which was 5th best in the division and would have been enough for exactly that, a 5th placed finish over a full campaign.They have started along similar lines this season and are just a point off 5th spot and they have clearly been playing at exactly this level since Christmas. They showed great ambition by extending the contract of star striker Jordan Rhodes in the summer and elsewhere made shoring up a backline which was too porous at times, a priority and whilst they have conceded the most goals of any team in the top half of the Championship, those numbers are improving now that new players are bedding in and changes taking effect and in terms of productivity at the other end of the pitch, they have created the second most attempts on goal and also on target. Worrying for the rest of the division is that Rhodes has not fully hit his stride yet and "only" has five goals, Rudy Gestede has eight and Ben Marshall six. Reports on Marshall have been amazing, rave reviews and my friend who is a Reading supporter said that he could have beaten the Royals on his own at the weekend, as it was, Rovers won 3-1 and Rhodes wasted three golden opportunities and if this team can find some real consistency and Rhodes his touch and that will definitely come, as he is far too good a striker at this level for it not to, there is no telling how far they could go . Hosts have "forgotten" how to win and have tasted victory just once in ten starts, which came here at the New Den against a poor travelling Cardiff team who missed two one on one's before Millwall scored the only goal of the game. This is a game the visitors should be looking to win if they hold genuine top 6 ambitions. 1.5 units Blackburn Rovers level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Sky Bet Championship > October 31st & November 1st Championship: Wigan Athletic- Fulham I have no doubt that both these two are much better than the league table suggests, but feel that Athletic are the stronger , fresher team and that they will be hugely motivated to win today and build on the victory at league leaders Derby County last week . We last discussed early last month ahead of a trip to highflying Woverhampton Wanderers ............. OK, another game where one team, Wolves, is going to have to handle the 24 hour quicker turnaround and not only that, they have to come to terms with not only losing their 100% home record, but on the back of a 3-1 defeat to Championship strugglers Huddersfield Town. They have to regroup quickly facing a Latics team who played really well a day earlier, perhaps for the first time this season and who were wildly unlucky not to beat Nottingham Forest. Ahead of that I wrote ....It is fair to say that things will be easier tonight for the home side than they would meeting Forest in 7 days time , they desperately need a win, that goes double for manager Uwe Rosler who is coming under increased pressure and living off the goodwill he generated with a strong start to his managerial life here, over the second half of last season. The Latics are coming off a poor performance at Bournemouth at the weekend after which Rosler said he was embarrassd by their showing and he apologised to both chairman and supporters, he needs a win before the international break and that means either tonight, or away to highflying Wolverhampton Wanderers at the weekend. Rosler will be able to call upon returning top scorer Callum McManaman, who missed out at the weekend, it is hard to know what has gone wrong at the DW Stadium, their points tally in the second half of last season was only inferior to the two promoted clubs and Derby County, the squad has remained largely intact since the EPL and FA Cup winning days ,has plenty of depth and Rosler was allowed to spend big ahead of the transfer window closing , paying £8-9m for Adam Forshaw and Andy Delort and excuses must be running out. If the Latics do not put in a greatly improved performance tonight, Rosler will be expecting a phone call from Uncle Dave Whelan. Athletic did the double over Forest last season, including a 4-1 win at the City Ground just six months ago and can feed off those positive memories and more importantly the lack of a creative spark in midfield from the visitors, to record a much needed win. They did everything but win, it was one of those games where if they scored one, they would probably have got three and there have been nothing but positive vibes coming out of the club subsequently, in stark contrast to the mood at Molineux who have had a major wake up call. Rosler has nursed James McClean slowly back from injury and he and Wigan might be about to get rewarded, he played 90 minutes in midweek with no reaction and his team mates were raving about his contribution, with captain James Perch saying :“James was brilliant, he’s only just back from injury and hasn’t played many minutes, but he was brilliant and Forest couldn’t handle him.†Good chance for Athletic to build on that performance and go into the break on a high. They drew that 2-2 after leading twice , they are unbeaten in five, four draws and the win at County. That sequence includes three 0-0 home draws in a row and they desperately need a result at the DW to stop the boo boys and this is their last home start for three weeks and Rosler will be under intense pressure if they do not collect maximum points today. The visitors played in midweek and as chance would have it, were entertaining Derby County in the Capital One Cup, they were 2-0 up after 45 minutes, but within another 20 were 5-2 down ! The Rams could switch off after that and prepare for another trip to West London to face the mighty Bees this afternoon. Fulham, did rotate heavily fielding only six players who took part in the 3-0 home win over Charlton at the weekend, but it was still a major step backwards, they were gifted the two goals they scored by County errors and it is a little scary to think what the margin of victory might have been. Wigan were a little hard hit by injuries earlier in the season, but there is real competition for starting places now and James McClean ( see above) came off the bench to score twice at Derby, also on the sidelines there were William Kvist with 50 Danish caps to his name, Shaun Mahoney with over 30 for Scotland and like McClean having well over 100 top flight apparances , plus England U21 international Martyn Waghorn and Andy Delort and Oriol Riera signed for a combined 7m € in the summer. That is a lot of talent on teh sidelines and really good options for Rosler, who has to be prepared to gamble more (this is a major flaw with him) and not just once they fall behind. 1.5 units Wigan Athletic -0.5 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Serie A TIM > October 28th - 30th [h=1]Verona- Lazio[/h]Verona beat Lazio 4-1 in this fixture last season, ahead of which I wrote ..... Incredible return to the top flight for Verona, they will enter the Christmas break no worse than 6th and would go above Inter into 5th for at least a few hours with the win this afternoon and that is way beyond even the most positive of pre season expectations. Key to this success has been their home form (7-0-1), infact, they have lost only 3 of 46 home starts since early October 2011. They have named a squad as long as your arm for this afternoon, seemingly including everyone except fringe midfielder Ezequiel Cirigliano and the lady who serves the espresso after training. Miroslav Klose (10-4-2) made his first start im six weeks against Livorno last Sunday and scored twice and even at 35yo poses a big offensive threat. However, there will be no Hernanes (13-2-2) pulling the strings in midfield and his influence, especially on the road, is key, Lazio are 1-2-12 away from home over the last three seasons when he plays 45 minutes or less.Also missing are left back Stefan Radu (9-0-0), midfielder Ãlvaro González (10-0-0.... who would have expected to play in Hernanes absence) and right back Bruno Pereirinha. The visitors have yet to win away from Rome this season and missing a major creative talent in midfield, where Verona, especially young Juan Iturbe (12-3-1) and Jorginho (15-7-2) have impressed , it is hard to see it happening here today and I take another veteran striker Luca Toni (14-5-8) to come out on top . The two also played out a 3-3 draw in Rome at the end of the season and with Verona having conceded nine in their last two home starts and Lazio having scored 11 in their last four, including six in two on the road, it is easy to see goals on the cards tonight. Verona have lost Iturbe to Roma since I wrote those notes and Luca Toni turned 37 in May, but 23 goals and 13 assists in 45 starts for the veteran is a very impressive return and I do not feel there has been too much wrong with Verona's form this season. They were 3-2-1 only losing on the road to Roma, before the 3-1 home loss to Milan and 6-2 defeat at Napoli got alarm bells ringing. However, the first of those was very flattering to Milan , the match could easily have ended 3-3 and even at 0-3 Verona kept battling and fought until the last kick of the game, perhaps too hard, as Rafael Marquez was sent off in injury time. The match at San Paolo was all square at 2-2 with 22 minutes left to play and a little more competitive than the scoreline makes it appear. Lazio are looking for a 5th straight win and would move into third and within four points of rivals Roma with the win and that is a big incentive, Filip Djordjevic has hit the ground running since arriving from Nantes with five goals and he and Klose form a potent partnership with bullets provided from a high tempo, technically astute midfield and this is a match which promises much in terms of entertainment. I am not sure that Lazio should be favourite for this and am tempted by Verona with the start, but marginally prefer goals. One end of the stadium will be empty tonight a result of a "partial " ban following the Milan game. 1.5 units "over" 3 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket. Verona: 1 Rafael,22 Benussi, 95 Gollini, 4 Marquez, 5 Sorensen, 16 Luna, 18 Moras, 28 Brivio, 33 Agostini, 40 Gonzalez, 71 Martic, 10 Hallfredsson, 23 Ionita, 27 Valoti, 30 Campanharo, 77 Tachtsidis, 7 Saviola, 9 Toni, 11 Jankovic, 17 Lopez, 20 Lazaros, 21 Gomez Taleb, 99 Nenè. Lazio : Berisha, Marchetti, Strakosha, Braafheid, Cavanda, Ciani, de Vrij, Novaretti, Pereirinha, Radu, Biglia, Ederson, Gonzalez, Ledesma, Lulic, Onazi, Parolo, Felipe Anderson, Candreva, Djordjevic, Klose.
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Re: Coupe de la Ligue > October 28th & 29th Toulouse- Bordeaux These two meet again in Bordeaux at the weekend and I feel that is the match which Les Girondins will be focused on. They played in Paris against the champions PSG on Saturday and spent a lot of time chasing the ball ( just 36% possession) in a stretched game where both played more than a half with ten men. Toulouse had a shock home defeat to Lens on Friday and they will surely want to get back on track as soon as possible, in front of their own supporters and have the benefit of an extra 24 hours recovery time and no travel, whereas the visitors have been clocking up the motorway miles (1,500 km + since Friday). They arrive without suspended defensive midfielder Andre Poko, just one recognised central defender and without influential right winger Diego Rolan who has scored or assisted in three of Bordeaux's five wins. The hosts are also a little short in the centre of the backline, but have at least been able to pick from three and did not consider leaving out senior central defender Dragos Grigore with the weekend in mind, which might be adding 2+2 and getting 5, but implies to me they are interested in the competition to a greater degree than Bordeaux.
1.5 units Toulouse -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.....there is quite a bit of 2.20-2.30 around elsewhere.
Toulouse : Vidal, Boucher - Grigore, Ninkov, Spano, Sylla, Akpa Akpro, Moubandje - Aguilar, Sirieix, Bodiger, Ben Ali, Trejo, Regattin, Doumbia - Pesic, Braithwaite, Ben Yedder. Bordeaux : Carrasso, Prior – Contento, Faubert, Mariano, Pallois, Poundjé, Yambéré – Badin, Kaabouni, Khazri, Plasil, Sertic, Traoré – Diabaté, Maurice-Belay, Sala, Touré, Shamal.
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Fluminense- Atletico Paranaense Fluminense- Atletico Paranaense We previewed Atletico's midweek trip to Criciuma..... Big week for Criciuma who sit second from bottom, hosting a poor travelling Atletico Paranaense and then a relegation six pointer at Vitoria, which is about as good as it is going to get for the time being, as they play three of the top six immediately after that. AP have not posted a road win since mid July, when they won two in a row, either side of the World Cup. They have lost their last seven and failed to score in six, we opposed them through that sequence in games against other relegation candidates in Coritiba and Chapecoense and Criciuma will be hoping that the visitors are similarly obliging this evening. The visitors have won two home starts over the last ten days and have given themselves a healthy looking six point advantage over the drop zone, but they cannot win every home game and are going to have to start collecting points on the road at some stage. The hosts are without a trio of suspended players in central defender Joilson and defensive midfielders Rodrigo Souza and Joao Vitor, all three played in the last home game a 3-0 defeat of Santos and formed the defensive spine of the team . Vitor missed 11 games last season which averaged 3.18 goals per game. Atletico travel without suspended Natanael Pimienta who has been playing left back this season and missed just three games, that will interest Criciuma wide player Lucca has has refound his scoring touch recently with two goals from the right flank in two starts after a long dry spell. They won that 1-0 , points which have left them very comfortably in mid table and I doubt they can play at an intensity in a second road game inside three days to beat what is surely a far more motivated opponent. Fluminense have won twice over the last week, including a fine midweek win at Santos and are now up to seventh, just five points adrift of second spot and three off Copa Libertadores pace, one of seven teams looking to secure three places. However, with five of those seven above them in the table, they can ill afford to drop any home points against mid table teams. I am not overly concerened with team news, but after scoring the winner in midweek, AP senior striker Cleo got himself booked which ensures he misses today, but will be available for the visit of AMG next week and has his yellow cards "zeroed" and if you think that was by accident, you are less of a cynic than me and I view it as a clear indication of what games are being prioritised by the visitors. 1.5 units Fluminense -0.75 ball 1.92 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Championship betting preview: Brentford- Sheffield Wednesday Championship: Brentford- Sheffield Wednesday We are looking for a 4th straight win on a Brentford home game having taken them to beat Reading and Brighton and the "over" in the loss to Norwich City, who were on fire at the time. The most recent of those previews, the visit from the Royals earlier this month, is reproduced below in full. The Bees won that 3-1, it could easily have been a more emphatic win and they have adapted well to life in the Championship and a heavy road defeat to Middlesbrough aside, they should be undefeated this season. Tonight they have to manage without central defender James Tarkowski whom I discussed below, he will be replaced by Harlee Dean and whilst Dean doesn't have the potential of JT, the three centre backs are largely interchangeable and he has started games recently as Tony Craig was out previously. On the plus side, Stuart Dallas is fit to return after a month out and will give the hosts more options out wide and a goal threat from those areas. They are coming off a 0-0 draw at Wigan Athletic where, apart from a 15 minutes spell at the start of the second half, they were largely dominant and should have taken all three points, Jota ( again, see below) played his first 90 minutes of the season, has upped his fitness levels to Championship requirements and is going to capture a lot of headlines this season. Again, I will repeat that this is a very difficult place to come and get a result and the Bees have won 22 of 29 starts at Griffin Park, which is a magical place under the floodlights. There is a special bond between supporters and players, which you do not get both ways at many clubs and several players posted videos and photographs of the huge support they got before, during and long after the game at Wigan, including some 4-5 hours after the game back in London when Harlee Dean put this on instagram. Talking of support, I have always had a lot of time for the Wednesday supporters and as usual, they have sold out their away allocation for a match involving an eight hour round trip on a Tuesday night. However, the Owls have lost their way a little after a strong start to their season and have now not won in five starts in all competitions, through which they have not kept a clean sheet. They are coming off a 3-0 home defeat to Watford, boss Stuart Gray has been thwarted in his attempts to sign a striker on loan and has urged his side to tighten up at the back, so we can perhaps expect a defensive set up tonight, with Gray already being criticised for being too negative . They have lost injury prone defensive midfielder San Hutchinson for a couple of weeks and right back Lewis Buxton is out again after only recently returning from injury. They look in need of some fresh blood and Gray made a strange comment last week, saying "we struggle when teams press us", what does he expect teams to do ? His players will get very little time on the ball tonight with the Bees looking to harry teams all over the pitch. The hosts look in better shape right now and are certainly a more balanced unit. Home win. 1.5 units Brentford -0.5 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Brazil Serie A preview: Botafogo-Palmeiras Brazil Serie A: Botafogo-Palmeiras This falls into the two struggling teams camp. We looked at Palmeiras last midweek, when they hosted Chapecoense.... Our last preview of a Chapecoense match is reproduced at the foot of the email (see last Thursday's newsletter), they won that 3-0 and subsequently took a point against Criciuma, thereby collecting the four we spoke of. They led at the break in the latter and looked on course for all three points, but defensive midfielder Bruno Silva was dismissed just before half time and the visitors found a way back. He is suspended tonight and is a loss, when he plays Chap average 1.67 points per game, 0.81 without him and also concede almost half a goal more per start and he has become increasingly influential. The visitors are talking up a good game, claiming to be coming for all three points and have spoken about their solid recod in recent starts in SP, having taken four points from games against Corinthians and Sao Paulo and have prepared for this in identical fashion. However, they are 0-1-6 on the road without Silva and Palmeiras have scored in 9 of their last 11 at home and their last five starts have averaged 3.8 goals, two struggling teams and these two are well and truly in the relegation scrap, usually means goals and it is hard to see how the visitors can get anything from this without scoring at least once. Hosts are in better shape than for some time, with the return of Lucius, Juninho, Tobio, Wesley and Leandro and possibly Valdivia (awaiting decision from the disiplinary committee) and will be up for this, which on paper is their easiest match for the forseeable future (they play four of the top 8 this month) and one where three points could take them out of the drop zone. I am torn between the home win and "over" option, but priced this as circa 1.95 Palmeiras (they are 2.0) and a full quarter goal more in terms of the goal line, so the decision is made for me. That ended 4-2 and it is very difficult to see Palmeiras keep a clean sheet against anyone right now, but they have started scoring again. The same is true of the hosts and these two have conceded 2+ goals each on average over their last 10 starts in all comps. Botafogo are in turmoil on and off the pitch and look in trouble and will do well to avoid relegation, the next three games, all of which are at home are likely to decide their fate, on paper, this is the easiest ( Corinthians and Recife up next), but is against a better rested opponent ( two extra days recovery time) who are also battling for survival. hosts are without starting keeper Jefferson and back up Andrey, that will mean a start for Helton Leite , who has not made a first team start in 13 months, or even played a B team game in over six and has very limited experience. Last three h2h meetings here have gone over and both have scored in 8 from 10 and I expect more of the same this evening. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) We previewed the reverse fixture at the weekend ......I feel it will be very tough for Timbers to win this, with injury and suspension ripping the heart out of the visitors, robbing them of two of the most influential midfielders in the MLS. San Jose have a limited amount to play for, but are courting a new coach in Dominic Kinnear ( good choice, see above) and will want to impress and despite a ten match unbeaten run, they are better than that and have served us pretty well this season , especially with the 5-1 demolition of Chicago Fire, which was a "double " win and defeat of Seattle Sounders in the brand spanking new Levi's Stadium and they also drew 3-3 in Portland recently, where they led 2-0 and 3-2. Timbers are without both Diego Valeri and Will Johnson. Over the last two seasons Valeri has missed just three matches, none this season, through which he has scored 20 goals and had 27 (!) assists and 163 attempts on goal, Johnson has only missed seven , he plays deeper, but has 17 goals and is the driving force in the team, Valeri the standout player. They have (very) occasionally had to deal without one, but now both are out together and it must feel like they are going into battle with a couple of limbs missing. Earthquakes led there through a Chris Wondolowski goal, before Timbers found two late goals, it was a gritty hard earned win, which didn't look like coming, but missing their two most important players, it said plenty about the spirit in the squad and a follow up win tonight, would give the edge in that race for 5th place over Whitecaps, who do not play until Friday, when they visit Seattle, so three hugely valuable points up for grabs for the hosts. They will be without right back Alvas Powell who is away on international duty, he has just forced his way into a regular starting place, but his absence is more than compensated for by the missing on the other side of the pitch and return of Diego Valeri ( see above). San Jose have lost central defender Victor Bernardez, midfielders Atiba Harris and Cordell Cato and striker Wondolowski to international duty, right back Pablo Pintos was sent off as time expired on Sunday and is suspended. All five played in that game, four as starters, the loss of Bernandez is huge with Clarence Goodson injured long term, Wondo is far and away their biggest offensive threat with 14 goals this season (three against Timbers) and 87 in the last five campaigns . The two teams met here in Portland a month ago, that ended 3-3, Wondo and Cato scored all three between them, Valeri assisted for all three Timbers goals, with the hosts having a club record 32 attempts on goal, they also had 40 crosses into the box and with the visitors without a starting central defender tonight , that kind of relentless pressure is likely to be rewarded , especially with so much on the line. 1.5 units Portland Timbers -1 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket. They scored two on the road without Valeri, three at home last month and it should have been five, 2.75-2.90 for Portland to score over 2.5 goals looks big.
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Re: Liga de Fútbol Profesional > October 3rd - 5th [h=1]Celta Vigo- Villarreal[/h]Celta Vigo are unbeaten (3-3-0) and have been playing at a high level for the best part of a year, averaging over 1.63 points per game over their last 30 La Liga starts, which equates to 62 points over a full season, enough for sixth spot in each of the last two seasons and a Champions League spot in the two campiagns prior to that. They were scoring freely in pre season and against decent opposition and have carried that trait into the new season. The work that Luis Enrique begun, as been seemlessly carried on by Eduardo Berizzo and he is not afraid to rotate and use his squad, he made five changes from the team which won the Galacian derby with Deportivo for the trip to Eibar last week, where they took the spoils with a late goal and that depth will serve them well. However, he explained that the changes were not about simply resting players, saying :The team must be able to absorb changes and keep moving forward. The rotation of players shouldn’t be purely for allowing people game time, it should also enhance the team simultaneously.†They are without Augusto Fernandez today, but he would have been very likely to have started and are otherwise at full strength. Villarreal had a very pleasing first season back in the top flight posting a 6th place finish, that was not totally unexpected. They strengthened in the summer and here we have two teams both looking to break into the top 4, or at least challenge. Long term I feel the visitors have the greater potential, but right now Celta are playing with a lot of confidence and the visitors look short defensively without Rukavina, Musacchio, Jokic and Jume Costa. That means just five defenders have made the trip, one has not played this season, another is just 17yo, they also played on Thursday in the Europa League and all 11 starters there, including the four likley defenders today started and that is far from ideal. Meanwhile, Vigo played on Friday of last week, so have had a full nine days to rest and prepare for this. H2h wise, Celta have not lost to Villarreal at home in the living memory of most players and took took four points off them last season. 1.5 units Celta Vigo -0.25 ball 2.21 asina line/Sportmarket. Villarreal: Asenjo , Juan Carlos, Mario, Adrián MarÃn, Gabriel, Dorado , VÃctor Ruiz, Trigueros, Bruno, Jonathan dos Santos, Cheryshev, Espinosa, Moi Gómez , Cani, Uche, Giovani, Gerard , Vietto.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 2nd Europa League :Wolfsburg- Lille We opposed Wolfsburg on group Matchday 1 when they made the trip to Goodison to play Everton .... Roberto Martinez has spoken of taking the competition seriously and we know that Spanish teams usually do, so maybe it is in his blood. Having earned their first win of the season at WBA over the weekend, there is good reason to feel that they will keep that momentum going and to build on it. If they have desire to progress, it will of course not be at the expense of their league campaign and with a long trip to Krasnodar up next and that match sandwiched between away trips to Liverpool and Manchester United, their two biggest rivals, it is fair to assume that they will be looking for the points today and then spare one or two the long trip East in two weeks time. Samuel Eto’o sat out the weekend game, but looks sure to start tonight and with no new injuries and the treatment room emptying, Martinez will surely name a strong starting eleven. His team have scored at least twice in all three starts and whilst they have conceded just as freely, Wolfsburg do not pose quite the threat of Arsenal and Chelsea and motivation for German clubs in the competition has been a little questionable in recent seasons and the domestic schedule tends not to do them any favours, with teams sometimes asked to play Thursday-Saturday. Wolfsburg do get a Sunday match this week, hosting Bayer Leverkusen and having made a slow start to the season, that might be the main focus of their week, against a direct rival for a top 4 spot, of which only two are realistically up for grabs. Everton's record signing Romelu Lukaku was reportedly close to signing for Wolfsburg in the summer, but looking at the direction they finally went in...Nicklas Bendtner, it is hard to believe they were ever really going to spend close to 35m €. They have said that Luis Gustavo and Kevin De Bruyne will be fit to play some part, but the pair have looked a little off the pace since returning late from the World Cup, this looks a good time for Everton to play Wolfsburg. They lost 4-1, but to say the scoreline was flattering to the EPL side is an understatement and Wolves dominated most of the second half, they had little luck and had to wait until injury time before scoring one of their 27 attempts on goal ( 13 on target). They put that right on the Sunday, beating a strong Leverkusen team 4-1 and have subsequently also beaten Weder Bremen here at the Volkswagenarena. They have scored 27 goals in their last 11 home starts, only losing to Bayern and again look to be giving the competition respect and tonight their best shot. I doubt the same is true of Lille, they have already dropped home points to Krasnodar , have a realistic shot at a Champions League spot and face a difficult trip to Lyon on Sunday. They are already without four midfielders in Rio Manuba, Marvin Martin, Marcos Lopes and Jonathan Delaplace and can ill afford to lose anyone else (only four real midfielders have made the trip tonight) and I expect resistance will drop if and when they concede. 1.5 units Wolfsburg -1 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket. Wolfsburg : Benaglio, Grün - Jung, Naldo, Knoche, R.Rodriguez, T.Klose, Schäfer - Guilavogui, Malanda, Luiz Gustavo, De Bruyne, Hunt, Arnold, Perisic, Vieirinha - Olic, Bendtner. Lille : Enyeama, Elana, Butez – Corchia, Souaré, D.Sidibé, Basa, Kjaer, Rozehnal, Soumaoro, Béria – Balmont, I.Gueye, S.Meïté, Ad.Traoré – Roux, R.Mendes, Rodelin, Origi, Frey.
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Re: Ligue 2 > September 26th - 29th Ligue 2 betting preview: Clermont- Troyes Troyes got back to winning ways last Tuesday. They won that 4-1 with Ghislain Gimbert (see above) scoring twice, I have been spot on with these strikers to follow in recent weeks and having broken his duck for the season, it is very hard not to see him being productive over the next few weeks and mirroring his form of last season, but and there is always a but, he has been left out tonight by coach Jean-Marc Furlan who marches to the beat of his own drum and is not your archetypal Ligue 2 boss. He has opted to go with Henri Bienvenu and five goal Corentin Jean upfront. Jean picks himself and it is clear Bienvenu and Gimbert will battle to lead the line and that they want to persevere with the former as long as possible, as they "broke the bank" to bring him in (even free transfers cost money) and he was wanted by several of the top Turkish clubs, having been prolific and having gained Champions League experience at Young Boys, Fenerbahce and Eskisehirspor, averaging a goal or assist every 119 minutes throughout his career. On the day his signing was announced, Furlan said "With this signature, we send a message to our audience: we want to be the strongest, the best. "We want to continually advance the club ." However, Bienvenu will know now that he is competing with Gimbert and that can only be good for the visitors. Rincon returns to central defence replacing Florian Jarjat and this is a strong squad , full of goals, 19 in their last 9 competitive away starts, which included a 3-0 win here in Clermont at the end of last season. Troyes will go top of Ligue 2 with a point, but all three would give them a healthy five point advantage over Nancy who are currently in fourth and given their normal style of play, it is impossible to see them coming here looking for anything other than a maximum return. The visitors are 2-2-0 in Monday night road games, which all came against "big name" teams ( Nantes twice, Sochaux and Brest), Clermont are regulars in the televised fixture, but have only won one of the last 12, losing 7 of 9. Last of which was a 2-1 defeat at Valenciennes seven days ago. They were two down there, but again scored very late, striker Idriss Saadi scored his sixth goal of the season and that is a wonderful return for a struggling team who have only managed five other goals and the scorer of two of those, Souleymane Sawadogo is missing this evening. They get Bockhorni back tonight, but still look short in terms of the backline and heavily reliant on Saadi, who will be watched like a hawk, upfront. He actually has 12 goals in 18 starts across the end of last and this season, but came up short in the aforementioned heavy home defeat to Troyes and the visitors will be confident they can again stop the supply to the 22yo, who must have a host of scouts watching his every move. A win will take Clermont out of the bottom three and with a daunting trip to Dijon on Friday their only other start for 19 days, they will surely give everything to collect the win and that, I feel, will play into the hands of Troyes, who would be happy to go toe to toe and end to end, with any Ligue 2 team . 1.5 units Troyes -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket. Clermont : L'Hostis, Jeannin,Agounon, Avinel, Bockhorni, Martin, Lippini,Betsch, Capelle, Diogo, Ekobo, Hamdi, Moulin, Novillo, Salibur, Vidémont,Saadi. Troyes: Denis Petric - Franck Grandel - Rincon - Matthieu Saunier - Lionel Carole - Guillaume Lacour - Quentin Othon - Jessy Pi - Thomas Ayasse - Benjamin Nivet - Yoann Court - Stéphane Darbion - Karim Azamoum - Khassa Camara - Henri Bienvenu - Corentin Jean. Key stat: Troyes have led at the break in all three road wins this season and in their last five away victories in all comps.
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Re: Ligue 2 > September 26th - 29th Chateauroux- Brest In the midweek notes ..... We have discussed Chateauroux's away day woes many times, most recently ahead of their trip to Ajaccio ..... Chateauroux who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus. Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experience fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three. They drew that 1-1 and of course, then lost 5-2 at home to Nancy next time out ! They have Boyer and Sakhi back now, but Roudet and Darrieux (see all four above) are still absent and I can see Nimes getting as much joy through midfield as Nancy did on Friday. Striker Terence Makengo is also sidelined, he has scored one of only two away goals Chat have scored this season, earning them that point in Corsica. The hosts have drawn three straight home starts since beating Angers on opening day, but two of those finished 2-2 and it is difficult to see the visitors scoring twice on the road against anyone. They lost that 1-0 and now sit at the foot of Ligue 2, they earned a late reprieve from relegation last season and the squad to play at this level was hastily assembled, made up of players largely unwanted elsewhere and a mixture of inexperience and those a little long in the tooth. They have "always" been terrible on the road ( see above), but we have not seen an awful lot of evidence that this time round they can be saved by their home form. Last season they won eight at home before the end of February, but just one more after that, despite three more points having been enough to have saved them from relegation and they look weaker, especially in midfield and this is where teams are steamrolling them, even here on home soil. Their only home win came over fellow relegation fodder Clermont, they trailed in that until late and the visitors avenged that loss a few days later, winning 3-1 here in the cup, Nancy scored five here last Friday and it feels like they have simply got used to losing and now it hardly matters if they are playing home or away. Team news is identical to Tuesday, apart from the additional loss of promising young defensive midfielder Hassane Kamara and now a lightweight midfield is looking threadbare, with one or two youngsters set to be called up from the youth team and if called upon, maybe even asked to play in midfield out of position on their debuts ! Brest are a very strong squad and one I sided with pretty much from January onwards, picking up on their improvement and strength of squad quite quickly, he said modestly and back in February wrote ahead of a trip to Bastia....."Now another fellow struggler travels to the island looking for a survival boost. Brest are just one place above the home side, but have an extra ten points in the bag, plus a game in hand and arrive here on the back of a win over Auxerre last week, their first in almost four months, which has give them a major confidence boost. On Friday, they meet the other bottom three team , when they host Laval and three points today would not only give them further momentum, but lift the pressure on them to win that fixture. They were a Ligue 1 side last season and have a lot more quality in their ranks than the hosts, although neither side has made the transition to Ligue 2, CAB have been unable to strengthen and make the step up, Brest came into the campaign having lost their last 11 starts in the top flight and despite a decent enough start to this season, have been unable to address the overall slide. But sometimes you have to hit the bottom ( or second bottom !) before climbing and on paper they remain a class above CAB. Coach Alex Dupont has been "able" to omit by choice, six players who played Ligue 1 football last season, including two with 53 starts appearances between them ( Mendy and Ayite), two others left behind are on loan from Monaco and Villarreal and these are just options that the hosts could only dream of." They have a touch of quality amongst their ranks and pose a bit threat from set pieces, especially through Bruno Grougi , who has seven goals and two assists since the upturn in fortune, he delivers a killer dead ball and I am amazed he has not "provided" more goals. On the final day of the season, I rounded up their progress over the previous three months ....Now for Brest, at the end of January they were second from bottom, with just 20 points from 22 starts, over the 13 games since ( now, hopefully, it makes sense), they have collected a whopping 30 points with a 9-3-1 record, far and away the best form in Ligue 2. I was impressed with a point at Nimes on Friday, to go away to a team at this stage of the season who are fighting for survival and go a goal down took a lot of spirit to come back from, especially with nothing but pride to play for. I doubt few other teams would have denied Nimes on Friday, but Brest played with great energy and I suspect they wish there were another ten games left to play this season. They were playing Chateauroux on that day and with the visitors fighing for survival Brest were huge odds (2.70 +) to win ..... What choice do they (Chat) have but to go for this today, good news for them is that Brest have nothing to play for, bad news is that they are in fantastic form, have only lost twice in 15 starts , collecting 33 points and one of those was a home loss to promoted Caen, who they outplayed for 90 minutes in their last home start and got back on track last week with a road win at Lens, another team who will be playing top flight football next season. I would argue right now that possibly Metz aside, Brest are playing the best football in Ligue 2, will not want to lose at home a second time in a row and are looking to lay down a marker for next season. I think that Brest are an amazing price today, Chat will have to gamble at some stage and are simply not very good defensively, they just cannot keep Brest out for 90 minutes IMO, so will need two goals to win this (at least). If news comes through that results elsewhere are going against them late and this not their way, it would not surprise me if they, at least subconsciously , gave up. Like last week with Dijon, I have to again take two bets (home win and "over"). They won 3-0 and it is hard to think how they could have been any more impressive over the last 14-15 weeks of the campaign. On the opening day of this season I wrote ....They have a young and fast improving backline and look strong in all areas, the signing of Alexandre Cuvillier from Nancy in the summer looks very good business indeed, he assisted for a lot of goals and I described him as an "important cog in the Nancy system" last season, when he made 35 appearances and they have added pace in other offensive areas. They look stronger if anything and it is hard to see them outside the top five. They are without Cuvillier again today and will be a little stronger once he is fully fit, but even allowing for his absence, the visitors look to have far too much talent in midfield for Chat and I see them dominationg central areas today. The "bad news" is that Brest have yet to win on the road (0-3-1), actually they have yet to score a goal away from home ! However, they have had chances to win a couple of those and definitely look one of the strongest L2 squads, they did take a long while to get going last season and it might be some time yet before we see them at their very best, but anything less than three points today will probably be viewed by them as points dropped and I expect them to win. 1.5 units Brest -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket . Chateauroux: Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Bonnart, Hountondji, Nestor, Obiang, Bain, Boyer - Dudouit, Chamed, Plessis, Zola, Sakhi, Koffi/ Mauricio - Nnomo, Thil. Brest:Thébaux - Falette, Traoré, Belaud, Martial, Moimbé, Makonda - Grougi, Ramaré, Perez, Doumbia, Khaled - Verdier, Laborde, Samassa, Alphonse, Sea.
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Chapecoense - Atletico Paranaense We spoke about Chapecoense ahead of their trip to Gremio on Sunday..... The visitors have given themselves a little breathing space over the drop zone with a home defeat of Sport Recife and fine point at highflying Corinthians in midweek, it will be very hard for them to raise their game again tonight, for the third time in little over a week , especially given the quailty of opposition they will have faced inside four days and bearing in mind they have two home games in the next week, A-P in midweek, followed by Criciuma, games where they have a real chance of picking up 4-6 hugely valuable points, if they do not leave everything on the battle field of Porto Alegre. It was a similar situation going into their away game with Coritiba earlier this month ...... We discussed Chapecoense quite a bit early in the season and how it was all going to be about the home games for them and coming off a tough sequence of games, their focus could quickly switch to the visit from Sport Recife at the weekend if they fall behind this evening. They have already lost six on the road and failed to score in 5 of their last 7, a very motivated host to win this one. They lost that 3-0 and something similar would not surprise tonight, as I feel strongly that motivation might fade if they fall behind. They lost 1-0 but felt robbed and must be delighted with how this first season in the top flight has gone and how well they have competed on the road against two very strong home teams in the last week. However, their fate will ultimately be decided by how they play at home and with the top 3 still to visit over the final six home starts, the two matches this week are just HUGE and four points has to be targeted as a minimum requirement, it is always easier when you get three from the first and I expect them to give everything this evening. Whereas, Atletico might just have one eye on a visit from Corinthians at the weekend, they arrive without right back Mario Sergio ( collected 0.4 points per game less without him) and top scorer Douglas Coutinho, he scored four of the five goals in the only two away games they have won this season and lost both road games he missed. Home win. 1.5 units Chapecoense -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket. Chapecoense :Abuda, Bergson, Bruno Rangel, Bruno Silva, Camilo, Danilo, Dedé, Diones, Ednei, Fabinho Alves, Grolli, Hyoran, JaÃlton, Leandro, Nenén, Silvio, Rafael Lima, Ricardo Conceição, Rodrigo Biro, Wanderson, Zezinho , Rychely. Atletico have conceded a league high ten goals through the middle third ( 31st -60th minute...15 mins either side of the break, a whopping seven coming leading up to HT) of games, Chap are a very nice 7-1 (goals scored- conceded) through the same 30 minute period and this looks perfect for "in play" betting.
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Re: Brazil Serie A Thread 2014 Gremio have recorded a pair of 0-0 draws , at home to Santos and away to Atletico Mineiro and they have not conceded a goal now in five league outings, they are not exactly flowing at the other end of the pitch, but there is good reason to feel they might this evening and three points should see them return to a Copa Libertadores spot. The visitors have given themselves a little breathing space over the drop zone with a home defeat of Sport Recife and fine point at highflying Corinthians in midweek, it will be very hard for them to raise their game again tonight, for the third time in little over a week , especially given the quailty of opposition they will have faced inisde four days and bearing in mind they have two home games in the next week, A-P in midweek, followed by Criciuma, games where they have a real chance of picking up 4-6 hugely valuable points, if they do not leave everything on the battle field of Porto Alegre. It was a similar situation going into their away game with Coritiba earlier this month ...... We discussed Chapecoense quite a bit early in the season and how it was all going to be about the home games for them and coming off a tough sequence of games, their focus could quickly switch to the visit from Sport Recife at the weekend if they fall behind this evening. They have already lost six on the road and failed to score in 5 of their last 7, a very motivated host to win this one. They lost that 3-0 and something similar would not surprise tonight, as I feel strongly that motivation might fade if they fall behind. 1.5 units Gremio -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Brazil Serie A Thread 2014 Brazil Serie A: Goias- Atletico Mineiro You do not expect too many goals when Goias play at home, with their ten starts this season averaging just 1.7 goals and it was a largely similar story last year. However, the hosts sit just five points above the drop zone and could really do with all three points this evening, Atletico are far more attack minded and only the top two have scored more road goals, but that has only resulted in two wins, with games averaging 2.7 goals, when they do attempt to tighten up at the back it tends to backfire and end in dropped points. They are five points off Copa Libertadores pace and that seems likely to increase tonight, with Corinthians hosting Chapecoense, unless they can collect the win and they are facing a trip to Cruzeiro at the weekend. Therefore, I do expect this to be a little more open than the usual Goias home game. Hosts are without suspended duo of defensive midfielder Thiago Mendes and Tiago Real (lost all three he has missed), Goias lost 4-1 at Atletico in the absence of Mendes at the end of last season. Atletico are without forwards Diego Tardelli and Luan, but coach Levir Culpi has spoken about the need to win and his team will take chances for the points, at the back, they are missing central defender Leonardo Silva ( he has missed four away starts in the last 12 months, three defeats and two goals conceded in three of those starts) and key right back Marcos Rocha. The last game both defenders missed was a 3-2 win at Vitoria and it is hard to see how they can win here with a clean sheet. 1.25 units "over" 2 goals 1.99 asian line/Sportmarket. Goias: Paulo Henrique , Renan, Léo Veloso, Lima , Moisés Alex Alves, Felipe, Jackson , Valmir Lucas, Amaral, David , Rodrigo, Esquerdinha, Liniker, Murilo , Ramon, Bruno Mineiro, Erik, Samuel , Welinton Júnior. Atletico : Victor, Uilson, Emerson Conceição, Alex Silva, Douglas Santos, Edcarlos, Jemerson, Tiago, Claudinei, Fillipe Soutto, Eduardo, Leandro Donizete,Dodô, Dátolo, Paulinho, Guilherme, André, Carlos, Jô.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday September 18th Europa League :Metalist Kharkiv -Trabzonspor This match is being played in Lviv, 1,000 km from Kharkiv, their home match in the playoff round was held in Kiev, which is about half that distance away and very few Metalist supporters made the journey and it is hard to see tonight's fixture offering them much by way of home advantage and as a team, they look weaker than in recent seasons. Traditionally the third best club side behind Shakhtar and Dynamo, they made the big breakthrough in 2012-13 to finish runner up, but last season again slipped back to third, with Dnipro edging them out. Dnipro look to have made the progress from that second place finish that Metalist were hoping for and are putting pressure on Donetsk and with Dynamo looking stronger, things look tough for tonight's host. Their confidence will not have been helped by losing 5-2 at home to Dnipro on Saturday and the mood amongst the players will surely not have been good on the long road trip to Lviv. Trabzonspor have made a good start to life under new coach Vahid Halilhodzic (pictured), who proved his tactical worth with Algeria at the World Cup and his usual approach of keeping things tight and then counter attacking with speed and tactical nous, is ideally suited to playing on the road, especially in Europe. His team has yet to concede a goal and they will be very tough to breakdown this evening. I watched their 0-0 draw at Rostov in the playoff round and Halilhodzic has done an incredible job very quickly, they only allowed the hosts a couple of long range efforts on goal and three times got 3 v 1 on the break and were only denied by some fine saves and poor finishing, overall a very impressive performance and this is a team we have to give close attention to in the coming months. 1.25 units Trabzonspor level ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Sky Bet League 1 > September 16th & 17th League 1 : Gillingham - Peterborough United Posh are our League 1 selection, are in the top two already and can extend an already three point advantage over the pack with all three points this evening. They are coming off a 0-0 home draw with Notts County, but will get a lot more space this evening and are defending a 100% record on the road. My preseason notes on them are reproduced at at the foot of the email. In the update, written earlier this month I added ..... Posh have won 4 of 5 and outplayed Sheffield United for long periods in their only defeat. They lost Britt Assombalonga to Nottingham Forest, who made an offer no L1 club could ever refuse. Boro already had targets lined up and signed Marcus Maddison from Gateshead and 19 yo Luke James from Hartlepool, both are archetypal Posh signings (Ferguson, Barry Fry and MacAnthony all have a very good eye for non and lower league talent), banking the other circa £4-5m. Maddison is only 20 and was very well thought of at Newcastle United a couple of years back, but paid the price for perhaps believing the hype and had to drop out of league football to prove himself and is now very hungry to impress. James was totally adored by supporters at Hartlepool and has been monitored by a host of bigger clubs.They have also signed defender Christian Burgess on loan from Middlesbrough .They face Port Vale, Notts Co and Fleetwood at home, Yeovil and Gillingham on the road this month and that it not a set of fixtures to strike too much terror into Boro . I felt the 12-13 was too big pre season and feel similarly about the 9.0 now, but there is no need to bet again. However, I have to say I will be shocked if they are too far away come the end of the season. They have taken four points from the two starts since then and I expect them to add to that tally this evening, they are another team who should be suited to a quick turnaround, having a strong group of players with competition for starting places. Gillingham less so and they look an archetypal mid table side, who look short of goals. They have heavily relied upon Cody McDonald to provide those in recent seasons, but he has only scored one in six, Danny Kedwell has scored four this season, but has been carrying a knock and has not played this month and is again a doubt this evening and the goals have dried up. They conceded four at both Barnsley and MK Dons, neither of whom pose the offensive threat of Boro and the problem is that when they try to protect the backline, the offense suffers, witness three consecutive starts without scoring. Defensively they have not been helped by the three match suspension to Gavin Hoyte who will again be missing tonight and the long term injury to former Brentford keeper Stuart Nelson, who had missed only one match over the previous two seasons, they have conceded an average of 1.86 goals per game in his absence. Away win. 1.25 units Peterborough United -0.5 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Re: Serie A TIM > Sunday September 14th Italy Serie A: Cagliari - Atalanta New Cagliari coach Zdenek Zeman will doubtless be pleased with an opening day point at Sassuolo, both teams on the scoresheet will probably be a common occurence under the attack minded Zeman, who is highly unlikely to divert from his beloved 4-3-3 under any circumstances. He has named a very attack minded squad today , boosted by the return of star player Victor Ibarbo who was sidelined last week, he is very strong and unbelievably quick and very much a footballer to thrive under Zeman. So too is Marco Sau, he scored just once in his first 13 starts last season, but is already off the mark this time round and has provided an assist in two of his last three starts against Atalanta. Hosts will be without defensive midfielder Sebastian Eriksson who has been very injury prone since arriving from IFK and he looks set to miss another couple of months, but are otherwise in good shape. This is the third season running that Cagliari have started their home campaign against the team from Bergamo, two years ago this ended 1-1 and last season the hosts edged home 2-1 and a home win with both scoring again seems a very likely outcome and is available at circa 4.0. Atalanta look a little weaker this season having sold Andrea Consigli, Marko Livaja and Giacomo Bonaventura, although Alejandro Gomez from Metalist Kharkiv has been brought in as a direct replacement for the latter, they are missing a few, now largely fringe players, but given how Zemen and the hosts will play, perhaps experienced central defender Guglielmo Stendardo will be missed most, they have won just 2 from 13 (8 defeats) when he plays 30 minutes or less and that record is far worse on the road when they are 0-1-6 in his absence. 1.25 units Cagliari -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket. Cagliari : Colombi ,Cragno,Avelar, Balzano, Benedetti, Capuano, Ceppitelli, Murru, Pisano, Rossettini,Capello, Conti, Crisetig, Dessena, Donsah, Ekdal, Joao Pedro, Caio Rangel, Cossu, Farias, Ibarbo, Longo, Sau. Atalanta: Avramov,Baselli,Benalouane,Bianchi,Biava,Boakye,Carmona,Cherubin,Cigarini,D’Alessandro,Del Grosso,Denis,Dramé,Estigarribia,Frezzolini,Gomez,Grassi,Migliaccio,Molina,Moralez,Raimondi,Scaloni,Sportiello,Zappacosta
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Ligue 2 betting preview: Ajaccio- Chateauroux Ajaccio- Chateauroux We discussed both Chateauroux ahead of their Coupe de la Ligue meeting with Clermont at the end of last month, when I wrote ..... These two featured in the mini Ligue 2 pre season preview .... Last year we started with a look back at how the previous season ended and what we traditionally expect over the opening round, when I wrote ..... Of the 12 teams in action today who played in Ligue 2 last season, Nimes 33 points, Le Havre 32, Dijon 31 and Caen 30 collected the most points over the second half of the campaign, Chateauroux with 21 and Istres with a woeful 15, the fewest. Looking at the last ten matches, that pair again came bottom of the pile with an average of extactly one point each per start, Le Havre were far and away the best with 1.9 points per game. Don't expect a goal fest, last season was high scoring by Ligue 2 standards, but opening day is traditionally tight, the 50 matches over the last five seasons have averaged exactly 2.0 goals, with 20 of those producing one or fewer goals. Of the teams discussed in a positive fashion, Caen were promoted and Dijon finished 6th , both Chateauroux and Istres who were carrying over very poor form from the previous season were relegated, (Chat later reinstated) so let's start with a quick look at similar stats this time round. Over the second half of the campaign, Clermont with 16 points and Auxerre with 18 performed the worse of the teams which remained in Ligue 2, infact, two of the relegaed teams collected more points over the final 19 games than that duo. Brest with 37 points, were far and away the best team through this period, followed by Niort (32) and Nancy (30). I do not feel the last ten starts are quite as releveant, teams do up their game at the last minute when in trouble and others with nothing to play for, are going through the motions, but Brest were again strongest with 20 points, Nancy second with 18 and Angers bottom of the pile with 9 points. They are interesting, second at Christmas, Angers were in a downward spiral from then on and it is they, Auxerre and Clermont who look most vulnerable of the established Ligue 2 teams, especially if they start their season poorly . So, coming into this season there was good reason to feel that these two were going to be amongst the weakest teams and after four matches, there has been little to swerve us away from that thinking, they have one win between them and that only because the pair met here 11 days ago with the hosts winning by the odd goal in five. Two struggling teams often results in goals and even at this early stage of the campaign, it is hard to view this pair as anything else, the home side have played poorly for two years and should be playing third tier football,the visitors for the whole of 2014. Clermont followed up conceding three here , by shipping four at home to Gazelec on Friday, they did score five themselves across the two games, but these two have already conceded 17 between them and it is hard to see either keeping a cleansheet against any L2 + opposition. Chateauroux, who earned a late reprieve from relegation last season, followed that 3-1 defeat with a draw with Orleans, but we already know their strength is at home, on the road, they have won just once in 45 Ligue 2 starts, scoring an average of 0.73 goals per game and conceding 1.71 over that massive sample of matches and something very strange happens to them when they board that team bus. Ajaccio appeared to have stopped the rot following relegation and a sluggish start to this campaign, they have kept three consecutive cleansheets in the league, collecting seven points, which included a confidence boosting derby win over GFCO and also managed to sandwich inbetween an eyecatching 4-1 win at league leaders Troyes in the cup, regardless of the respective teams approach in that game, it will have done wonders for the mood at the club and they can start to make teams fearful of coming to play here on the island, like they were in their Ligue 2 promotion season (13-5-1 and only six goals conceded ). Up front, they have two experienced strikers at this level in Nicolas Fauvergue (pictured) and Dennis Oliech , alongside two very promising youngsters in Issa Baradji ( 3 goals in 150 minutes of L1 action as an 18 yo in a struggling team) and Mouaad Madri and the win at Troyes was an indication of the offensive potential they pocess. Today they will be without suspended midfielder Claude Gonçalves which is a loss, but one they can overcome against such poor travelling opponents and one very short handed today. Chat arrive without suspended central defender Fabien Boyer and midfield starlet Hamza Sakhi, who at only just 18 yo is getting a lot of attention and also missing hugely experienced fellow midfielder Sébastian Roudet and holding player Maxime Darrieux to injury, which leaves then VERY short across the middle of the park and this is an excellent opportunity for the hosts to close in on the top three 1.75 units Ajaccio -0.75 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket. Ajaccio : Scribe, Sissoko, Marester, Quintillà , Kanté, Zubar, Babiloni, Coulibaly, Cavalli, Madri, Pedretti, Lesoimier, Fauvergue, Baradji, Oliech, Abergel. Châteauroux? : Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Bonnart, Houtoundji, Nestor (cap.), Obiang, Plessis, Zola, Chamed, Mauricio, Kamara, Thil, Bain, Dudouit, Makengo, Rivas.
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Re: Brazil : Serie A betting preview: Criciuma-Corinthians Brazil Serie A :Gremio- Atletico Paranaense Hosts have won all three home starts under Big Phil Scolari and the road win at Flamengo over the weekend took them onto the fringes of the Copa Libertadores places and now they have some real momentum having won 4 from 5 (only defeat in that sequence was narrowly, away to leaders Cruzeiro) and with three of their next four at home starting tonight, they will certainly have their eye on second spot. We discussed them ahead of that trip to Cruz ...... Gremio won their first match under new coach Phil Scolari (goodness, that guy is never out of work very long !) at the weekend and his involvement will increase interest in this game and hopefully encourage Cruz to turn it on. The visitors have a home match with Corinthians up next and again, I would argue that for them, that game, in front of their own supporters is more important and certainly the easier of the two fixtures. The visitors left four regulars at home, including Barcos and Rodriguinho who have scored seven of just 13 Gremio goals this season and Big Phil also said that two players coming back from lengthy injuries will get game time from the bench tonight and it looks like the weekend game is , indeed , being given clear priority. Cruz could win this comfortably on a going day reagrdless of that, but it is a nice extra bonus. I have to say that Gremio were very unlucky to lose that game and had enough chances to have won, left winger Dudu was causing all sorts of problems and looks to have thrived under Scolari, having lost confidence under the former coach. The win at Flamengo was even more noteworthy as they were withouttop scorer Hernan Barcos, defender Matias Rodriguez and midfielder Ramiro ( no wins in the eight matches, five defeats, he had missed previously over the last two seasons), both are set to return this evening which will not only freshen up, but upgrade options. Atletico have lost their way since we spoke highly of their adventurous play on the road earlier in the season, scouting reports are in, opponents know what to expect and they are now being caught out on the break and have conceded nine in their last four road starts, this is a very young squad, I think the youngest in Serie A, with an average age of sub 22 ( leaders Cruzeiro have the oldest average at circa 27) and once youngsters lose confidence, it is very hard to get back. The visitors have not won here in more than a decade, are 0-3-7 on their last ten visits, conceding an average of 2.4 goals, three or more in 4 of their last five. Actually, home and away they have only won once in 11 h2h meetings, which was the reverse fixture this season, but the two are now heading in different directions and I fully expect Gremio to avenge that this evening. Team news doesn't look too good for them, they are without strikers Cleo and Coutinho who have ten (40%) of Atletico's goals between them and also missing Drausio, Sueliton and Leo Pereira from their defensive line, right back Sueliton is their most experienced defender and Cleo their senior striker in a squad woefully short of experience. 1.5 units Gremio -1 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Brazil : Serie A betting preview: Criciuma-Corinthians Brazil : Serie A: Criciuma-Corinthians Last month I previewed Corinthians ahead of their trip to Coritiba..... Corinthians are unbeaten in eight starts in all competitions, up to second in the table and can close the gap on leaders Cruzeiro , who drew last night, to just three points with a win. They have a good record againt Coritiba, have won the last four meetings, including two visits to Curitiba and arrive in very good shape and with new signing Nicolas Lodeiro joining the squad for the first time, after resting since the World Cup. Defensively, Corinthians are watertight, just 28 goals conceded in their last 50 starts, but it is at the other end of the pitch that they struggle, just 27 goals all last season, which was 1.315 per game less than champions Cruzeiro and that number had to close if they were to become competitive this season and it has. They have already scored 15 goals this season through 12 starts, which is more than they managed over the final 24 games of 2013. They have already beaten Cruzeiro and International at home, recently, but those results will count for little, if they go back into their shell on the road and do not push for maximum points against the "lesser" teams. Coritiba have been underperforning for 18 months and despite ending Gremio's unbeaten home run last week, they remain in the drop zone and needed wins on the final two rounds of last season to survive and seemed to need that extra motivation to raise their game. It is true that they play better against the stronger teams, but equally true that we rarely see anything much from them two weeks running and Corinthians do appear to have their number. I watched the meeting between the two here towards the end of last season, it was far more important to the hosts as they were battling relegation, Corinthians were firmly stuck in mid table. However, you could never have worked that out from the action, it was all one way traffic and the visitors could have scored 3-4 goals (they won 1-0). Coritiba created a couple of half chances late after falling behind, but had been restricted to two long range efforts and they once beat the offside trap of the high Corinthians back line, until then. It also looked and sounded like a Corinthians home game, with a lot of visiting supporters in the stadium and it is hard to see that being any different tonight, in a far more important game. Just one home second half goal for Coritiba this season and that is when I expect the visitors to take charge of this, just as they have on their last two visits, with all three goals coming after the break. They drew that 0-0 and have since been a bit of a mixed bag going 2-2-1 through five starts which included putting five past Goias and winning on the road at Santos, but dropping points at home to Bahia and Fluminense. I felt the big win over Goias was going to really signal the arrival of a "new" more attack minded Corinthians, but goals are still proving hard to come by. However, they do get top scorer Paolo Guerrero back from suspension today and will be eyeing up all three points and to stay in the hunt for the Copa places with the two teams immediately above them in the table, both having very win-able home fixtures. Elias and Gil are both away on international duty, but they have no other iisues and have spoken openly this week about still having title ambitions this season, despite Cruzeiro now holding an eight point lead at the top of the table and ten over Corinthians, they can ill afford to drop points in these type of fixtures if they are serious about putting pressure on the leader and with three of their next four at home after tonight and a very nice run of fixtures over the next six weeks, they could definitely close the gap if they could go on a run. They have a good record against Criciuma and did the double over them last season without conceding. Corinthians are suited to playing on the road, they are 3-4-1 away from home this season and in their sole defeat, to very strong home side Gremio, won the corner count 8-2 and attempts on target 9-2. The hosts have drawn here with Inter and Cruz (0-0 both), but on another night could have conceded four in the latter and they have only scored twice in six home starts against teams currently in the top four. It is goals which are a problem for them and they have not scored a league goal in closing in on 500 minutes of football. Away win. 1.5 units Corinthians -0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
Copa do Brasil Final: Atletico Mineiro - Cruzeiro
in Brazilian Football Predictions
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Two legged final with the return leg in Belo Horizonte in two weeks time, by which time Cruzeiro will hope to have secured a second straight league title and maybe that scenario will see them then relax and really go for the domestic double. For now, I suspect that their priority will be that title defence and for them to play tonight with trips to Santos and Gremio in the next seven days firmly in mind and the knowledge that whatever happens this evening, they have the opportunity to turn things around in the return leg. They are three incredibly tough road games to play in a row , Cruzeiro are short of their best form and you can make a case for this being the least important of the three. Cruz have named a strong squad, but with 21 players in the group that leaves plenty of room to manoeuvre and central defender Dedé is injured and Marquinhos and Breno Lopes cup tied, which weakens them a little and they have conceded seven goals in their three away starts in the competition and if they score tonight and concede two, maybe even three, I do not feel they will be overly worried. Atletico have (incredibly) done the double over Cruzeiro this season, with both games going "over" and odds for a repeat look generous. Hosts have won their last two starts scoring six goals and whilst they would like to hold on to their current third place, I do not feel they will lose too much sleep over a visit from Figueirense at the weekend and for me, this week will be all about tonight's game.Atletico seem really pumped for this and you can feel the excitement and anticipation leaping off the page in interview with the players in build up. We last discussed them in any detail ahead of a home win over Chapecoense three weeks ago ....... Atletico did us a favour last Sunday easing past Sao Paulo by the minimum margin.... We have not discussed Sao Paulo a lot this season, but ahead of their trip to Coritiba last month I wrote ....The visitors have a very talented squad and will be buoyed by closing the gap on the leaders, but travel without Kaka (8-1-1 when he plays) and versatile defender Paulo Miranda ( conceded two goals + in three of the last four away starts he has missed) and although striker Luis Fabiano returns , he has been out since late May and will probably only be up to a cameo role. They will be motivated to keep the pressure on Cruzeiro, but this looks a difficult task now that the hosts are close to full strength and fighting for suvival. The visitors road games have averaged a league high 3.2 goals per game and it is hard to see them winnning this without needing to score at least twice. I am torn between the hosts and goals, but in terms of odds offered, much prefer the latter. They lost that 3-1 and actually collected just a single point, conceding 11 goals from four starts, before stopping the rot with consecutive 1-0 wins in their last two outings. They are without Kaka again today, he, along with Souza, Ademilson and Alvaro pereira are on international duty, Toloi and Rodrigo Caio are injured,Paulo Miranda and Paulo Henrique Ganso suspended. That means they are without 4-5 starters, including three midfielders and a left back and three players who played largely on that flank in their last really impressive performance, a 2-0 home defeat of champions Cruzeiro. PHG is hugely influential and they are without a win in 9 when he plays 30 minutes or less. Atletico can move back into a Copa Libertadores place with a win and within two points of SP who are currently in second spot. They are without strikers Diego Tardelli and Guilherme today , but have options upfront and it is midfield when they should win this game and boss the injury hit visitors. They followed that up with a 4-1 Copa do Brasil thumping of Corinthians, they went with eight of the 11 starters from the SP game, plus Douglas Santos, Diego Tardelli and Guilherme who all returned to action and it was a comprehensive victory, effectively over after 75 minutes at which time, top scorer Tardelli was wrapped up in cotton wool and saved for today. It is hard to reason why ANG do not score more goals, they have an abundance of attacking options and they have brought them out in force today, naming seven strikers in the 22 man squad. They are missing Guilherme ( see above) tonight, but we have spoken about their attacking options and threat and the goals have started to flow now and whilst I almost never oppose Cruzeiro, I see value in Atletico and also the "over" and am going to suggest a rare double bet. 1 unit Atletico Mineiro -0.25 ball asian line/Sportmarket. 1 unit "over" 2.5 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket. Atletico: Victor, Giovanni, Uilson, Marcos Rocha, Douglas Santos, Pedro Botelho, Leonardo Silva, Jemerson, Tiago, Edcarlos, Josué, Rafael Carioca, Pierre, Eduardo, Leandro Donizete, Paulinho, Dátolo, Maicosuel, Dodô, Luan, Carlos, Marion, Diego Tardelli. Cruzeiro: Fábio , Elisson, Ceará , Mayke, EgÃdio , Samudio, Alex, Bruno Rodrigo, Léo , Manoel, Henrique, Lucas Silva, Willian Farias , Nilton, Everton Ribeiro, Júlio Baptista, Marlone , Ricardo Goulart, Dagoberto, Marcelo Moreno , Willian.